Climate Change Scenarios: Vulnerabilities and impacts in Southern Florida

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1 Climate Change Scenarios: Vulnerabilities and impacts in Southern Florida D r. J u a n C a r l o s V a r g a s - M o r e n o SEA LEVEL RISE ADAPTATION IN THE FLORIDA KEYS Massachusetts Institute of Technology May 10th, 2011

2 MIT Research Team Dr. Juan Carlos Vargas Dr. Michael Flaxman Scenario Project: Ronnie Best (USGS) Steve Traxler (FWS) Paul Souza (FWS) Christopher Horne Stephen Lloyd Vanessa Ng Other Primary Contributors: MIT Students: Holly Moeller Allison Lassiter Linda Ciesielski Gates Gooding Kelsie Baker Aaron Thom Vulnerability Project: Doug Parson (FWC) Bob Glazer (FWC) Thomas Eason (FWC)

3 MIT Scenarios Project Overview Research initiative developed by MIT and sponsored by FWS and USGS. Simulates a range of possible futures, including variations in climate change, population growth and planning policies Identifies potential impacts of these scenarios on trust resources (species, habitats, refuges and landscapes).

4 Why is science often ignored in important societal decisions even as the call for decisions based on sound science escalates? PLANNER FACILITATOR SCIENTIST & PROGRAMS D E C I S I O N - M A K I N G P R O C E S S STAKEHOLDER & DECISION MAKER

5 Landscape Change -under climate change and urbanization- Legend Current urban areas Strategic Ecological Areas Existing DOI Conservation Areas Future protected areas Area: 19.3 Million Acres Protected: 23 Nat Refuges People: 15.3 Million Inhabitants Anticipating movement enables increased future protection Vargas-Moreno, J.C Climate Change and Landscape Planning. MIT

6 Approach 1. Stakeholder-based participatory planning 1. Get people responsible for making decisions involved up front and throughout (management relevant) 2. Scenario-based simulation modeling 1. Make uncertainties explicit and tangible 2. Package multiple variables to avoid combinatorial explosion 3. Evaluate Conservation Consequences 1. Model and evaluate different conservation strategies in scale and with realistic budgets 2. Look for resilient strategies (plans which work across a range of conditions)

7 Scenario Parameters & Bundling Internally-consistent bundles of biophysical variables and socioeconomic and planning assumptions Biophysical Socio-economic Dimensions Selected: SLR Population Projections Financial Resources Planning Assumptions 7

8 SCENARIO Buddle of Assumptions Simulation (space and time) ALTERNATIVE FUTURES Future Land use arrangements 8

9 AttCon Simulation Process DEMAND ATTRACTIVENESS Residential Conservation Agriculture BAU Proactive ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ( ) Residential Conservation Agriculture

10 Development Conservation Agriculture AN I M AT I O N - P R O C E S S O F G E O S PAT I AL S E Q U E N C E D - AL L O C AT I O N D e v e l o p m e n t, c o n s e r v a t i o n a n d a g r i c u l t u r e YEAR All High Middle Affordable

11 SCENARIO A SCENARIO B SCENARIO C SCENARIO E SCENARIO I 11

12 Only Current Future Area Conservation Residential Allocated Land Use Year: Scenario C Scenario B Allocated Land Uses Residential Conservation Agriculture!( Transit Oriented Dev. Sea Level Rise Current Land Uses Urban Conservation Agriculture Other Interstate Highways Major Rivers Major Lakes High Sea Level Rise Low Financial Resources Business as Usual Double Population Low Sea Level Rise High Financial Resources Proactive Trend Population

13 Spatial Resilience Strategies Accounting for climate change in conservation planning 1 Acquire current most valuable areas for conservation CLIP, Strategic Habitat, Critical Linkages 2 Identify and acquire future suitable habitat Account for change in vegetation, temperature, precipitation, etc 3 Connect existing patches with future suitable habitat Using Critical linkages Florida Greenways project

14 Conservation Strategies Landscape Ecology Strategies 1. Critical Corridors Refuge A 2. Interior Habitat Corridors New urban area 3. New and Additional Patches 4. Indentify Potential Conflict due to urban 5. Protect first area of potential conflict Refuge B 14

15 Proactive Conservation Network 1. Structural Corridors: 2km wide area that connects existing patches of conservation (based on CLIP, SHCA priority data, FEGN critical linkages as weighted by stakeholders) 2. Interior Habitat Corridors: Expansion of structural corridors to provide core habitat (includes all of top stakeholder-weighted priority area) 3. Patches: Adds largest remaining patches based on CLIP priority 1 data to expand existing conservation areas 4. Potential Urban Conflict Area: Areas within the potential conservation network that are vulnerable to development Structural Corridors Interior Habitat Corridors Patch Addition Current Conservation!( Major Cities Interstate Highways Major Lakes Major Rivers

16 Conflict Overview

17 What information are the scenarios telling us about the keys?

18 Current Future Land Use Year: Scenario C Big Pine Key Area Scenario B High Sea Level Rise Low Financial Resources Business as Usual Double Population Current Land Uses Residential Conservation Agriculture Allocated Land Uses Residential Conservation Agriculture Low Sea Level Rise High Financial Resources Proactive Trend Population Sea Level Rise Key Deer Refuge Great White Heron Refuge Roads 18

19 Other impacts

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23 FWC Vulnerability Assessment Project Goals To assess the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on wildlife habitats for a variety of taxa. 6 Species 5 climate change Scenarios (MIT scenarios for the Greater Everglades Landscape (30 most southern Florida counties) To examine the strategic impact of these kinds of changes on Florida s Wildlife Action Plan process. Identify the drivers of change Determine processes needed, including supporting research Research funded by FWC

24 Case Study Species Picked to represent a range of habitat types and locations. Selected by a FWC experts, filtered by data and expert availability Least Tern Key Deer American Crocodile Short Tailed Hawk Florida Panther Salt Marsh Snake

25 W O R K S H O P 2 W O R K S H O P 1 MIT Spatial-Explicit Vulnerability Analysis BIOPHYSICAL ASSESMENT (Work with species experts) Habitat Management Impacts cause by Land use Change Type Scenario A DIRECT BIOPHYSICAL IMPACTS Scenario B Scenario C Species X Habitat CCVI PROCESS CLIMATE- SENSITIVE ACTIONS FWC ACTION PLAN Species Experts Scenario E Scenario I HABITAT MANGEMENT IMPACTS Spatial Pattern Impact A Spatial Pattern Impact B Management Actions Habitat Impacted with Management Action Allocated Spatial Pattern Impact C MANAGEMENTL ASSESMENT (Work with species experts & Managers)

26 Key Deer Habitat Vulnerability Under MIT Scenarios

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28 Pilot Project: Climate Vulnerability Assessment AMERICAN CROCODILLE Conflict with Low SLR: 3.6 Department of Urban Studies and Planning

29 Pilot Project: Climate Vulnerability Assessment AMERICAN CROCODILLE Conflict with Medium SLR: 18.4 Department of Urban Studies and Planning

30 Pilot Project: Climate Vulnerability Assessment AMERICAN CROCODILLE Conflict with Low SLR: 3.6 Medium SLR: 18.4 High SRL: 39.1 Department of Urban Studies and Planning

31 Pilot Project: Climate Vulnerability Assessment Salt Marsh Snake Department of Urban Studies and Planning

32 Types and Quantification of Impacts Least Tern Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario E Scenario I LAND USE CHANGE IMPACTS MANAGEMENT IMPACTS

33 Species isolation/connectivity issues Strategic Adaptation Considerations 1. SURROUNDED ON ALL SIDES Small species populations surrounded by rising sea. Example: Key deer 2. BACKS TO THE WALL Mainland species trapped between SLR and urbanization. In some cases, climate corridors are still possible Examples: salt marsh snake. 3. ROOM TO MOVE (BUT PERHAPS NOT ABILITY) Species ability to move over time is constrained by organismal biology or habitat movement but not constrained by a management boundaries per se. Examples: American Crocodile, Short Tailed Hawk 4. FIGHTING WITH THE NEIGHBORS Species have major portions of their range on private lands with little or moderate current development densities. Examples: Florida Panther, Gopher Frog

34 What is different about our approach? Not just conceptual scenarios 1. Spatially-simulated 2. Spatially and temporally to scale Scenario parameters based on research / selected by managers 1. Conservation estimates based on real budgets and land costs 2. Climate change consistent with IPCC downscaled models 3. Land/water policies consistent with county plans and proposals Urban growth modeling integrated with climate change planning. 1. Most conservation planning approaches oversimplify urban dynamics Participatory simulation 1. Diverse stakeholders engaged in modeling 2. Iteratively developed

35 Some Research Needs Methods/ Data Improvement: Adjust bath tub models to incorporate Climate Compact methods by vertically adjusting data and using quadratic interpolation of SLR instead of linear Slush and slamm modeling/impacts Specifying storm surge frequency in scenarios and projecting veg and habitat changes relate to pulse as well as press disturbances BUT consulting with experts on the ground. Adding benthic habitats especially coral, impacted by ph changes under climate change. Focusing areas to act: Using scenarios as learning and discussion tools identify management and adaptation strategies that allow detection of areas to act (manage, partner, buy, monitor, forget) Incorporate: human adaptations/movement to understand humanadaptation impacts on habitat.

36 Capabilities for: Commenting PDF summary download Data (GIS) download EverView Download

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38 Who is using the scenarios? U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Florida Wildlife Commission

39 Thank you! Contact us at:

40 SAMPLE MANAGEMENT ACTIONS TO ALLOCATE Translocation Fee Simple Conservation Easement & PES Rewatering (quantity, quality & timing Rezoning Vegetation Management / Habitat Enhancement Coastal Hardening Prescribed Fire Overpass/Underpass 1 Public Outreach / Education Prioritize Design Adaptation 2 Case Study Area (Back against the wall)