The Role of Lifestyle Changes in Low Carbon Strategies The case of Brazil and France

Transcription

1 The Role of Lifestyle Changes in Low Carbon Strategies The case of Brazil and France Monday 6th November from 5pm to 6.30pm French Pavilion - Bonn Zone

2 Paris Agreement goals: Limit temperature increase to well bellow 2 o C, ideally at 1.5 C World per capita emissions in 2050: tco2e (UNEP Emissions Gap Report) To what extent shifts in consumption can contribute to mitigation?

3 Methodology Macroeconomic model input-output framework Productive sectors Energy, Industry, Agriculture, Services, etc. Institutional agents Households, Government, Private sector, Rest of the World Data sources National Accounts, Energy Balance, household surveys, employment surveys, prospective studies, stakeholder expertise How do the economy and production/consumption patterns evolve up to 2050?

4 Scenarios - Brazil Reference scenario: Long-term governmental strategy Deforestation goals Biofuel development Efficiency gains in energy and agriculture Renewable energy Full implementation of NDC up to 2030 and its continuity from 2030 to 2050 with no further increase in ambition

5 Lifestyles shifts scenario Raised environmental awareness Dematerialization, waste reduction Healthier diets Focus on well-being, culture and education over physical goods

6 Lifestyles shifts scenario Shift to public transportation Shift to biofuels Walk and bicycles Home office, e-commerce, online services Residential energy savings Biofuels Natural Gas Gasoline and LPG Electricity Public Transportation

7 Lifestyles shifts scenario Healthier diets, less meat Lower car ownership Reduce, resuse, recycle, sharing economy, less waste Cattle Agriculture Consumer goods Services

8 Emissions results 1,800 1,600 1,601 Mt CO2e 1,400 1,200 1, Reduction from base year: -23% 1,340 Mt CO2e 793 Reduction from base year: -35% Reference Lifestyles Energy emissions Non-energy emissions

9 Emissions results Base year Reference Lifestyles Emissions per capita (tco2e/capita) Energy-related emissions per capita (tco2e/capita) Emissions per GDP (tco2e/thousand 2005 USD)

10 Scenarios France To be consistent with the 1.5 C objective, total energy-related CO2 emissions in France should be less than 70 Mt in 2050 (i.e. 1 tco2/capita) -> more than /5 compared to 1990 (360 MtCO2) GDP is expected to almost double until 2050 (+1,6%/year average growth rate SNBC) Three pillars of deep decarbonization: Households lifestyles and consumption patterns changes Energy efficiency and electrification of end-use economic sectors (agriculture, industry, transport, services) and other structural changes, Decarbonization of energy production and changes of fuel supply What role of households lifestyle and consumption patterns changes in future French decarbonization strategy?

11 Scenario design Modelling exercise to evaluate the contribution of consumption patterns changes to deep decarbonization until 2050 Changes of households lifestyles and consumption patterns: direct energy consumption (residential/housing, private transportation) direct CO2 emissions non-energy consumption (food, home equipment, personal items, services, etc.) indirect CO2 emissions Starting from a counterfactual homothetic projection (no change of consumption/production patterns CO2 emissions increase like GDP): Scenario A: implementation of changes of consumption patterns only Scenario B: full decarbonization levers = changes of consumption patterns + production patterns (energy and end-use sectors)

12 Lifestyles and consumption patterns changes Urbanism and housing Urbanism and housing Stop urban spreading Building of more collective housing than detached houses 60% from 2025 Thermal confort temperature Reduction of 10% Hot water need Reduction of 10% Thermal retrofiting Legal constraint when the dwelling is sold Norm about the energy efficiency target Heating systems More efficient, and renewable energy New DH : 70% biomass, 30% Heat pump New CH : 85% heat pump, 10% biomass, 5% district heating Existing dwellings : 55% Electricity, 10% natural gas, 30% biomass, 5% district heating Hot Water systems More renewable energy 75% Electricity, 13% natural gas, 6% biomass, 6% district heating C ooking Energy switching From 35%/41%/23% to 70%/30%/0% for electricity/gas/lpg Electric devices Labeling with higher level of energy efficient Decrease of energy demand per sqm of 40-50% on average

13 Lifestyles and consumption patterns changes Transportation Individual mobility need Teleworking Less trips for work purpose for the relevant professional categories E-commerce Less trips for buying purpose Decrease of 40% Administrative procedures Transport for leisure Occupation rate of car all by internet 50% less of holiday trips and longer stays Carpooling for working purpose 30% of the trips of more than 10 km 1,51 person by car Carpooling for buying purposes 30% of the trips of more than 10 km 1,51 person by car one, two, three persons more in the car according of the Carpooling for leisure size of the family for trips of more than 100 kms 1,57 person by car 10% workers/employees, 30% cadres, 2 days a week Car ownership Rate of car ownership Car-sharing Electric and hybrid vehicules Same rate as Paris situation for urban people, higher rates for others Car-sharing services, car-sharing between individuals, etc. Mainly in city-centers Modal share Very short trips : less than 3 kms walk, bike, electric bike instead of car 75% of the trips by car switch to soft modes and public transport 50% of trips for work purpose and more of 30 km switch to public Collective transportation Same level of service as Paris region transport Express buses in suburbs and rural area High market shares for buses and rail transport Bike including bike sharing systems Modal share : 7,1% in suburbs and 10% in city centers Energy consumption of car Speed limits on highways max 110 km/h Decrease à 15% of the energy consumption per km Speed limits in urban areas 30 km/h in specific areas Decrease à 20% of the energy consumption per km

14 Lifestyles and consumption patterns changes Other goods and services Food Diet Losses less animal proteins, more vegetal proteins Lower rate Home equipment Electrical appliances Lifetime x 2 Furniture, others equipements Lifetime x 2 Second hand purchasing Services for routine household maintenance Higher budget share : +100% Personal Items C lothing, footwear, personal effects Lifetime x 2, second hand purchasing Personal care services Higher budget share : +100% Health and education Health services Other education expenses Higher budget share +100% Higher budget share for health services (+50%) and health private care (+100%) Communication, leisure and culture Electronic devices Lifetime x 2 Tools for maintenance, gardening, etc. Lifetime x 2 and sharing systems Sports and culture (services) Higher budget share : + 100%

15 Production patterns changes SNBC assumptions and more Energy efficiency in end-use economic sectors and other structural changes Modal shifts, energy efficiency and electrification in transport: development of rail, electric light commercial vehicles for freight (70% in 2050, etc.) Low-emission non-residential buildings Industry: energy efficiency, recycling and electrification of industrial processes: energy intensity /2 in average, 25% of hydrogen/elec technology for steel, etc. Dematerialization of processes Decrease of freight intensity of the economy Etc. Decarbonization of energy production and changes of fuel supply -90% CO2 intensity of non-electric energy production and - 96% CO2 intensity of electricity production in % of biogas in gas supply and 30% of biofuels in transport liquid fuels supply

16 Computing consumption and production patterns changes Consumption changes: Preliminary computation of direct energy consumption for housing and transportation with sectoral models then embarked in the economy-wide framework Implementation of budget shares variations for all categories of non-energy expenses Production changes: changes of coefficients of the inter-industry (I-O) matrix

17 Results Mt CO2 CO2 emissions of productive sectors Direct CO2 emissions of households Total CO2 emissions tco2 / capita «homothetic» projection scenario A scenario B Decrease 2050 B/ % -86% -75% - Decrease 2050 B/ % - Decrease 2050 B/ Homothetic -84% -93% -87% - -73% / 1990 in the full low-carbon scenario B = 1.3 tco2 / cap still non-consistent with 1.5 C objective 58% of the gap to the homothetic projection is due to lifestyles and consumption patterns changes