Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN)

Transcription

1 Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN) A NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Project Co-generated Climate Science Information for Urban Decision Makers Boston& New&York& Philadelphia& Mr.&Daniel&Bader&

2 CCRUN)Team) Phase)II)Lead)Principal)Inves6gators: RadleyHorton(Columbia),FrancoMontalto(Drexel),WilliamSolecki(HunterPCUNY) Columbia)University) Center&for&Climate&Systems&Research&& ProjectManager:DanielBader Inves6gators:MalgosiaMadajewicz, VivienGornitz,Danielle Peters,StuartGaffin Columbia&Water&Center& Inves6gators:UpmanuLall,ScoC Steinschneider,KatherineAlfredo& Mailman&School&of&Public&Health& Inves6gators:PatrickKinney,HarukaMorita LamontCDoherty&Earth&Observatory& Inves6gator:YochananKushnir Center&for&InternaHonal&Earth&Science&& &&&&&Network&InformaHon&(CIESIN)& Inves6gators:RobertChen,Sandra Bap6sta,GregYetman,TriciaChaiPOnn Drexel)University) Inves6gators:FrancoMontalto, RaqueldeSousa,PatrickGurian, SabrinaSpatari,GriffinKidd Hunter)College/CUNY) Inves6gators:WilliamSolecki, ErinFriedman UMass=Amherst) Inves6gators:RickPalmer,Leslie DeCristofaro,SarahWhateley Stevens)Ins6tute)of)Technology) Inves6gators:PhilipOrton,Roham Bakhtyar City)College/CUNY) Inves6gators:MarkArend,BrianvantP Hull

3 CCRUN)Problem)Statement) Urban&populaHons&and&infrastructure&have&unique&vulnerabiliHes& to&extreme&climate&events,&and&these&vulnerabilihes&are&projected& to&increase&in&the&future.&the&metropolitan&areas&of&the&northeast& U.S.&are&at&the&vanguard&of&resilience&efforts,&in&part&due&to&the& involvement&of&ccrun&scienhsts&in&each&city s&efforts.&however,( prepara+on(for(the(full(range(of(climate(risks(facing(the(region( requires(much(more(work.(the&primary&challenge&is&to(make(these( resilience(efforts( (both(underway(and(planned( (as(successful(as( possible,(and(to(scale(them(up(to(meet(the(scope(of(the(need.& 3

4 Cross=cuHng)Research)Ques6ons)) Research(Ques+on(1:(Climate(and(Climate(Impact(Informa+on.(Which& climate&and&climate&impact&informahon&products,&including&ccrun& Phase&I&products,&are&influencing&decisionC&making&and&adaptaHon& achon?&how&and&why&are&these&products&being&used?&what& modificahons&would&be&needed&to&address&different&types&of& stakeholders?&what&types&of&communihes&of&prachce&based&on&coc generahon&of&knowledge&have&been&most&successful?& Research(Ques+on(2:(Adapta+on.(Which&adaptaHon&strategies&are&most& effechve&for&different&urban&populahons&and&in&different&urban&contexts?& How&can&these&strategies&be&improved?&Would&alternate&strategies&have& yielded&bewer&outcomes?& Research(Ques+on(3:(Transforma+on/Opportuni+es(for(LargeLScale( Ac+on.(What&are&the&region s&key&condihons&(e.g.,&inshtuhonal,& regulatory,&infrastructural,&and/or&socioeconomic)&that&serve&as& opportunihes&for,&or&barriers&to,& ramping&up &meaningful&climate& resilience&prachce?& 4

5 Research)Sectors)and)Themes)

6 Table 1: Summary of Sample CCRUN Activities Primary Sector Climate Coasts Health Water Sample)CCRUN)Ac6vi6es) Select Phase I Activities & Products Downscaled climate projections for Philadelphia, NYC, and Boston; city-wide climate risk assessments, including NPCC Report; climate science contributions to Sea Level Tool for Sandy Recovery Hydrodynamic modeling and mapping of coastal flood risk in the NYC region Risk assessment of projected heat impacts on mortality and morbidity in Philadelphia, NYC, and Boston Decision support tools for managers of water supply in NYC, Boston, and Providence based on projected changes in average temperature and precipitation Sample Outcomes Provided climate science foundation for $20 billion SIRR; contributed to the formation of a community of practice around coastal mapping and planning Identified and communicated urban locations with greatest flood risk vulnerability Formation of climate & public health communities of practice Built capacity and informed water sector decision-making around drinking water supply issues Select Phase II Proposed Activity/Products Focused analysis on potential changes in extreme events, including heat stress (heat and humidity), intense precipitation, and coastal storms Hydrodynamic modeling and mapping of 1) coastal flood risk in Philadelphia and Boston and 2) adaptation strategy impacts on the amount of coastal flooding Extend work to consider health impacts of 1) combined heat and humidity, and 2) coastal storms Assess and map flood risk for water infrastructure by integrating updated extreme rainfall projections (IDF curves), sea level rise & coastal flooding, and elevation of system nodes 6

7 Climate)Science) Advanceunderstandingoftheextremeevents thatmostimpactoururbanstakeholders: Highheatandhumidity Heavyrainevents Coastalstorms Projec6onswillbecoPgeneratedwithdecisionP makers Anewfocuswillbeprovidingclimateinforma6on tosupporttheevalua6onofengineeringand adapta6onac6ons KeyPoints Smallchangesinaveragecondi6onscanbe associatedwithlargechangesinthe frequency,intensity,anddura6onofclimate extremes Climatechangecanimpactsurbansystems innonlinearways,withpoten6alfor cascadingeffects 7

8 Coastal)Core)Capabili6es)and) Oceanmodeling, including: Flooding,waves,erosion stormsurges,waves, erosion,waterquality CoupledatmosphereP oceanurbanmodeling Probabilis6cforecas6ng Thisweek(weather),this year,orfuturedecades Interests) Quan6fica6onofflood adapta6onmeasures 8

9

10

11 Proposed)Coastal)Products) NYC,Boston,Philadelphia floodhazardassessments, mapping Innovating, Quantifying Flood Adaptation Innova6vefloodforecas6ng products Floodadapta6on quan6fica6on control channel repair control channel repair 100-year flood level (m navd88) Broader,moretangibleflood metricsandresiliencemetrics Philip Orton 1 9 Dynamicfloodmappers 11

12 Health)Mission)and)Goals) Boston NYC Philadelphia Baseline RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Baseline RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Baseline RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s Baseline and projected annual heat-related mortality rates for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s according to the 33 GCMs and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. CatalyzecrossPdisciplinary,cudngedgesciencetoaddresshowclimatechange affectshealth Trainanewgenera6onofprofessionalsinthepublichealthdimensionsofclimate changevulnerabili6es,impacts,andadapta6onstrategies Partnerwithgovernments,NGOs,andclinicianstoensurethattheknowledgewe generateinformsstrategiesforreducingharmtovulnerablepopula6ons 12

13 Climate)and)Health)Program)Interests) ExposureMeasurement and)capabili6es)) ColdPRelated&HeatPRelatedHealth Effects Infec6ousandNonPInfec6ousDiseases Influenza,westNilevirus,chikungunya Bloodpressure,asthma,sleep disturbance,heatillness,mortality MentalHealth:PTSD,depression LinkingClimateProjec6onstoHealth Outcomes DisasterPreparedness&Health Dispari6es ColumbiaBikeStudy 13

14 Water)Resources) Evalua6onofthepoten6alimpactsof climatechangeonthemillionsof individualsinthebostonpnycp Philadelphiaurbancorridorservedby someofthemajorwatersupplyu6li6es intheregion. Toolsandmodelswerecareavailablefor thethreeci6estocalculateclimatep inducedimpactsonwateravailability. WebPbasedtool,knownasViRTUE,was developedthataffordssmallermunicipali6es theabilitytoes6matethereliabilityoftheir systemsandwateravailabilityunderclimate change UMass Amherst Civil and Environmental Engineering 6 Newresearchareas RisksofUrbanFloodingU6lizingUpdatedIDF Curves SedimentandNutrientExportinUrban Watersheds 14

15 Engineering)and)Design) Climatecanaltertheabilityofallecosystemsto provideregula6ng,suppor6ng,cultural,and OFFSETTING INCREASED PRECIPITATION provisioningservices. IMPERVIOUSNESS REMOVAL Resilientci6essupporturbanpopula6onsthrough A 25% reduction in urban yard imperviousness can arangeofecosystemservices THROUGH fully mitigate the runoff implications of a 64% increase in annual rainfall Thoughclimaterisksarewidelyacknowledged, (from 1988 to 2011) rarelydogovernmentagencieshavededicated budgetarylineitemseitherforimplementa6onof resilienceplans,ortoactobroadlyonurban ecosystemserviceenhancement. Bycontrast,formidableinvestmentsarerou6nely madetoupgradeinfrastructure(e.g.tomeet Mason E and FA Montalto (2014) The overlooked role of New York City urban yards in miagaang and regulatoryrequirements,addressgapsinservice, adapang to climate change. Local Environment. replaceagingassets)andtomodifyurbanlanduse (duetoculturalshihsassociatedwith resurging ci6es). 15

16 Engineering)and)Design)Research) Ques6ons) vanni, K (2014) Doctoral DissertaAon PublicaAon in preparaaon Withsufficientclimatedata,caninnova6venewapproachestourbandesign, infrastructureplanningandopera6on,andlanduseplanningrestore,enhance,or createecosystemservelevelssoastoengenderresilience,despiteregionalclimate change? CanresiliencebefosteredthroughgradualpaCernsofurbanregenera6on,guided byappropriateclimatesensi6vepolicies,ordoesitneedspeciallyfunded 16 infrastructureini6a6ves?

17 Social)Science)Research) Focusoncontextsandopportuni6estoaccelerate meaningfuladapta6on Socialscienceteamwillleadpar6cipatoryprocesses(e.g., thevulnerability,consequencesandadapta6onplanning Scenario(VCAPS)Process)inconjunc6onwiththesector teams ResearchQues6on1;Pevalua6ngtheimpactofexis6ngclimateproducts ResearchQues6on2and3;helpassesstheeffec6venessofadapta6onstrategiesindifferent contexts,usingevidencepbasedmeasuresofresilience ResearchQues6on3;iden6fyandunderstandtheleversthatsupport,orhinder,adapta6on 17

18 Moresocialscienceandmoreengineering/urbandesign,tosupport documenta6onandevalua6onofadapta6onsthatareunderwayandplanned Emphasisonextremeevents BroaderpartnershipswithotherregionalthoughtPleadersandactors OutreachtoNOAApartnerswithintheNortheast,includingNa6onalWeather Service,integra6onofCCRUNac6vi6esintoprePestablishedstakeholderPNOAA rela6onships(formalpartnershipwiththenortheastregionalclimatescience Center(NRCC)andtheEasternRCSD) NortheastClimateScienceCenter UrbanClimateChangeResearchNetwork Novelapproachestointerac6ngwiththesegroupsandothergroups Becominganetworkhub Workingvisits withleadersfromoutsidetheregion? AdvisoryCouncil 18 Next)Steps)