Center for Climate and Resilience Research The first 5 years and continuity plan

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1 Center for Climate and Resilience Research The first 5 years and continuity plan Laura Gallardo Klenner, laura@dgf.uchile.cl/lgallard@u.uchile.cl &CR2 team Profesora Asociada del Departamento de Geofísica de la Universidad de Chile Directora del Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia

2 First 5 years: achievements New endeavors and approaches

3 Fundamental Objectives To deepen our understanding of the climate system, processes, and impacts throughout Chile, in a holistic manner that confronts the complexities of socio-ecological systems To strengthen the emerging community of natural and social scientists in Earth System Science in Chile In collaboration with stakeholders, to contribute to the definition of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures for building societal resilience. Chile: a country of strong gradients

4 Achievements of the first 5 years 1. Deepening of understanding 1. Questions by research line 2. Integrative questions 1. Mega drought study 2. Regional manifestations of the Anthropocene: the case of Chile 2. Enabling science 3. Team building for interdisciplinary research 4. Networking and outreach

5 Scientific highlights per research line areas of coastal upwelling along northern and central Chile constitute significant sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. oxygen-poor subsurface waters favor the accumulation and recycling of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and methane (CH 4 ), and identified a new biological pathway of N 2 O consumption an attribution to anthropogenic forcing of ca. 25% (MD) drying trend of ca. 10% since 1980 in central and southern Chile, Altiplano contextualized in paleo-records and climate projections consequences on water resources and vegetation identifying centennial to millennial modes of natural variability a monotonic warming since 1960 at elevations above 1000 m a.s.l. and a cooling along the costal stations since 1980 in contrast with a coastal warming in the previous decades..rapid loss of native forests from 1975 to 2010, and the consequences of this loss in terms of biodiversity Native forests role in storing carbon, providing water and reducing vulnerability to forest fires gives them advantages when compared to exotic pine and eucalyptus plantations.an estimate of the amount and seasonality of the recovery of water provision from the restoration of native forests has been provided. identification of local drought adaptation strategies theoretical and practical aspects of resilience novel legal conceptualization of climate change damage Legal framework for climate change documented climate variability and change Tropospheric ozone climatologies and trends for the remote atmosphere analysis of simulations for the last millennium. evaluation of fluctuations in the South American Monsoon long-term climate variations associated with insolation changes and the more recent effects of anthropogenic forcing in southern South America impacts of air pollution on the Andean cryosphere long-term evolution of air quality in urban areas ~200 ISI publications

6 Integrative questions Central Chile s Mega drought ( ?) A series of dry years has afflicted central Chile since The on-going mega drought is the largest and longest dry spell on record with few analogues in the last 1000 years. One third of the mega drought has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The central Chile MD became the first integrative research topic for CR2, and we now better understand its origin, impacts, responses and projections. These results are included in: Our first Report to the Nation (2015) 10 Peer review papers (6 published) 12 Scientific presentations 11 Presentations for general public 17 Coverage in national media Regional Manifestations of the Anthropocene: the case of Chile 1. Aguirre et al, Some insights about anthropogenic forcing on coastal upwelling off central and -southern Chile 2. Arriagada et al, Governing climate change in the Anthropocene: modes of governance and steps towards polycentrism in Chile 3. Barría et al, Anthropocene and streamflow: long-term perspective of streamflow variability and water rights 4. Boisier et al, Long-term precipitation and streamflow variability in Chile over the last 50 years 5. Gallardo et al, Evolution of Santiago s air quality: the role of mobility and lessons from the science-policy interface 6. Gayó et al, Geo-historical records of the Anthropocene in Chile 7. Lara et al, The impacts of land use change on biodiversity and forest ecosystem services during the Anthropocene in Chile

7 Enabling Science CR2 platforms ought to be open to the scientific community and the public

8 Team building for interdisciplinary research an Earth System functioning in no-analogue mode, requires action not only to mitigate the drivers of dangerous climate change and enhance societal resilience, but also to shift scientific paradigm from the traditional disciplinary model towards an integrative approach Co-production of knowledge Lago Grey 2017 Malalcahuello 2017 Multi/inter discipline 2017 Synthesis and project Disciplines Casablanca 2016 Roca Negra Anthropocene in Chile 2015 M-Drought and Legal Framework for CC Villa Alegre Starting interdisciplinarity (M-drought) El Añil Start up and launching

9 Networking and outreach Multiple collaborations with ministries, research centers in Chile and abroad Policy relevant information Media presence Science Communication Continuous education Diploma on Low Carbon Development and Climate Change

10 New endeavors and approaches: re-structuring science making From a 5 year Project to a long lasting institution (complementary and closely related to our host institutions): From too many, some narrow, some broad objectives to fill a key space between curiosity-driven and problemoriented research. neither disciplinary- nor problem- oriented Research lines around complex problems, covering broad, shortto long- term objectives combining researchers of diverse disciplinary backgrounds in the context of climate and resilience research.integrative questions to allow for cross-pollination and interdisciplinary exchange between research lines, and to provide a platform for delivering high-quality, societally-relevant science and usable knowledge, and hopefully opening the door for trans disciplinary exploration

11 Research objectives Water availability and extremes: Disentangle the role of natural variability and anthropogenic factors (either local or remote) as drivers of change in the distribution of extreme hydro meteorological events (frequency, extent, intensity) and their impact, and translate these results into actionable science that enhances Chile s resilience. Coastal zones: Identify the mechanisms by which climate variability and change affect coastal processes relevant to the functioning of Chilean ecosystems and society. Land use change: Design resilient landscapes for the sustained provision of ecosystem goods and services to cope with climate variability and change. Cities in a changing climate: Assess the resilience capacities of Chilean cities to climate disturbances at present and under future conditions supposing different emission scenarios and governance conditions. Governance and policy-science interface: Assess governance modes compatible with a low-carbon economy and coherent with the Paris Agreement, SDG priorities, and Chile s socio-economic conditions, emphasizing a sound and strengthened science-policy interaction. (Medium-to-long term goals) Provide scientific assessments that support policy-making and resilience to fire regimes, air pollution, hydro meteorological extremes, and algae blooms in the context of climate variability and change. (Short-term objectives with societal interface) More tomorrow!

12 In sum becoming and remaining a major player in developing climate and resilience science and contributing to our country s goals of achieving low-carbon, sustainable development consistent with the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

13 Gracias! Sponsoring institution Associated Institution Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia CONICYT/FONDAP/ Funding Agency