REGIONAL CONSULTATION MEETING

Transcription

1 REGIONAL CONSULTATION MEETING ON ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING STRATEGY & WMO INFORMATION SYSTEM (WIS) AND WIGOS PILOT PROJECT Maputo, Mozambique, 1-5 December 2009 FINAL REPORT 1 February 2010

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY REPORT 1-3 PART I: Regional Consultation on Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting & Early Warning Strategy (FFEWS) Background...4 The Meeting Opening of the Meeting Technical Presentations...6 Introduction of meeting contents, objectives, scope and expected outcomes.6 Role of international community in supporting regional Cooperation 7 3. Country Presentations...8 Botswana...8 Malawi...9 Mozambique...10 Namibia...10 Zambia...11 Zimbabwe Regional Institutions Presentations...13 Zambezi River Authority...13 SADC Secretariat (SADC Water Division)...14 SADC-HYCOS - Project...14 Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) International & Regional Initiatives in Zambezi River...15 Basin related to FFEW SADC-HYCOS Phase II...15 Southern Africa Regional Flash Flood Guidance System (SARFFG)...16 Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP)...16 ARA-ZAMBEZE Country needs, Challenges, Opportunities & Specific Issues Zambezi Basin Flood Forecasting & Early Warning Strategy Flood Forecasting & Early Warning Demonstration Project...19 Page

3 9. Conclusions of the Meeting Way Forward...21 PART II: Proceedings of the Regional Meeting on WMO Information System (WIS) & WMO Integrated Global Observing Systems (WIGOS) Pilot Project Introduction...24 WMO Information System (WIS)...24 WMO Integrated Global Observing Systems (WIGOS)...25 Development of WIGOS/WIS Pilot Project in the Region...26 (Hydrological Component) Conclusions and Recommendations...26 ANNEXES List of Participants...27 Agenda...34 Page

4 SUMMARY REPORT REGIONAL CONSULTATION ON ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING STRATEGY (FFEWS) MAPUTO, 1-3 DECEMBER The Zambezi River floods almost every year claim lives and cause grave economic losses thus severely impeding overall socio-economic development in the Basin. On several occasions during the WMO s Congress and Executive Council sessions, the countries in the Zambezi River Basin have expressed concern about the absence of Integrated Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System in the Basin and requested the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) to assist them address this issue. 2. In response to the countries request, WMO in collaboration with USAID/OFDA are developing a Strategy for Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in the Zambezi Basin. The proposed project is intended to assess the capacity for flood forecasting and early warning in the countries in the Zambezi River Basin and particularly in the Zambezi Basin area and formulate a consensus strategy. Current WMO activities including the Flood Forecasting Initiative, the Regional Flash Flood Guidance System Southern Africa component (SARFFG System), SADC- HYCOS and other SADC projects including ZACPRO 6.2 will complement the project objectives. 3. The project will be implemented through five main activity areas including, Regional Consultation Meeting, National Consultations, Basin-wide meetings of riparian hydrometeorological and disaster management organizations, implementation of a demonstration project on flood forecasting system and analysis and recommendation and proposal for Basin-wide Flood Early Warning Strategy. 4. The regional consultation meeting organized from 1 st to 3 rd December 2009 at Maputo, Mozambique, was the first activity of the project. The main objectives of the meeting were to bring together all interested parties to agree on a framework for flood forecasting and early warning system for the Zambezi Basin, to gather necessary information from the countries in the Zambezi Basin to support the development of the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning (FFEW) Strategy in the Zambezi basin and decide on the implementation of the Demonstration Project. 5. Forty six experts representing NMHSs and disaster management offices (DMOs) from six countries in the basin and representatives of regional and international organizations participated in the meeting. Mr. Daniel Lampiao, General Inspector, Ministry of Transport and Communication, opened the meeting on behalf of the Minister of Transport and Communication, Mozambique. Directors of NMHSs and other experts attending the consultation meeting presented country papers on the status of flood forecasting in the Zambezi Basin. In their presentations, experts highlighted countries needs, challenges facing the establishment of basin wide flood forecasting and early warning system and the opportunities in the region to develop an effective flood forecasting and early warning system. 6. It was noted that there was a need to strengthen the institutional and technical capacity of the countries to be capable of operating modern FFEW systems. This required comprehensive training programmes in various aspects of flood forecasting including installations and maintenance of equipment, data collection and processing, transmission and management. 7. Experts also indicated that convincing governments to be committed to investment in FF & EW and bringing all countries in the Zambezi River Basin to actively participate in a project in order to improve and sustain basin wide cooperation are major challenges in the region. Opportunities in the region should be utilized including the existence of regional institution, SADC for supporting regional and basin wide initiatives and the current interest of international development and cooperating partners to support basin initiatives in the region. Invited experts from regional and 1

5 international organizations presented different activities undertaken/planned to be undertaken by their organizations related to flood forecasting in the Zambezi Basin. 8. Based on the discussions at the meeting a regional consensus on development of a flood forecasting and early warning system for the Zambezi Basin based on a strategy was achieved. The process for confidence building among countries in the Zambezi River Basin for real-time sharing of flood information was initiated. A road map for activities to be implemented under the project until December 2010 (and tentatively up to 2012) was established. Below is an outline summarising the way forward indicating in brackets key players and timelines: A. Regional Consultation Meeting 1. WMO will finalize and circulate the report of the Regional Consultation Meeting and communicate with countries in the Zambezi Basin to seek commitment to the project and identify focal points (WMO - 15 January 2010). B. National Consultations 1. Countries will identify their country focal points, WMO and USAID/OFDA will prepare terms of reference (TOR) for country consultations to specify requirements and scope for National Consultations and draft schedule of visits (ALL 10 February 2010). 2. WMO and USAID will support National Consultations to identify and incorporate national needs through organization of National Workshops and gathering information from various services (All April - July 2010). 3. The Focal Points /Experts in the participating countries will prepare and submit Country Reports, as input to Basin Strategy (Countries August - September 2010). C. Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Strategy 1. The Zambezi Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Strategy Document (first draft) will be available and circulated to countries for comments (WMO December 2010). 2. WMO will incorporate comment received and circulate to countries the second draft Strategy Document for comments (WMO - June 2011). 3. WMO will incorporate comments received and circulate to countries the Final draft of the strategy for discussion at Regional Workshop (WMO - November 2011). 4. Organizing a regional workshop for the countries in the Zambezi Basin to discuss and finalize the draft strategy (WMO-USAID/OFAD - December 2011). D. Demonstration Project 1. Detailed plan of implementation will be developed and discussed between countries in the Zambezi Basin, WMO and USAID/OFDA (WMO January 2010). 2. WMO in close collaboration with participating countries will prepare specific criteria for the monitoring and evaluation exercise (WMO January- February 2010). E. Basin-wide High Level Meeting 1. A regional High Level Meeting to review and agree on the Final Draft Basin Strategy will be organized by WMO in collaboration with participating countries (WMO - USAID/OFAD - Countries December 2011). 2

6 2. The report of the High Level Basin Meeting will be circulated with the Final FFEW Strategy document to countries for implementation (WMO February 2012). 3. The Zambezi Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Strategy Document are available. Demonstration project is operational (WMO-USAID/OFAD) (March 2012). 3

7 PROCEEDINGS OF THE FIRST MEETING REGIONAL CONSULTATION ON ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING STRATEGY, MAPUTO, 1-3 DECEMBER 2009 BACKGROUND The Zambezi River is the longest and largest river in the Southern Africa Sub-region. It is shared by Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. There are two large reservoirs in the Basin the Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams, water releases from these reservoirs can exacerbate flooding in downstream countries, especially when heavy rainfalls or tropical cyclone events coincide with above-normal inflows to the reservoirs. During the last few decades it was noted that floods in the Zambezi River Basin have been recurring disasters and, almost every year, floods along the river claim lives and cause grave economic losses thus impeding overall socio-economic development in the Basin. The lack of an appropriate Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Strategy covering the whole basin has contributed to the negative impact of flood problems in the region. Countries in the region have been raising concern about flood issues in the Zambezi River Basin including the absence of a basin wide flood forecasting and early warning strategy. They expressed their need to have a working strategy for flood forecasting and early warning in the Basin to allow better management of the floods, information exchange and strengthen cooperation among the countries in the Zambezi River Basin. In order to assist the Basin countries resolve the problem, WMO and USAID in collaboration with NOAA agreed to support the Development of Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Strategy for the Zambezi Basin. It was also agreed to implement a demonstration project to test the draft strategy and to identify the strengths and weaknesses to improve the draft and finalize working strategy. Map of the Zambezi River Basin 4

8 THE MEETING At the kind invitation of the Government of Mozambique, WMO and USAID organized a Regional Consultation meeting from 1 to 3 December 2009 in Maputo, Mozambique to start the implementation of the Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Project. The meeting was conducted at the National School of Aviation in Maputo. Forty six experts representing NMSs, NHSs and disaster management offices (DMOs) from six countries in the basin including Botswana, Namibia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe and representatives of regional organizations including SADC Secretariat, SADC- HYCOS Regional Center and Project Management Unit, Zambezi River Authority (ZRA), International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) and ARA Zambezi participated in the meeting. International experts from USAID/OFDA, NOAA/NWS and USGS also participated in the meeting. The meeting was facilitated by WMO. A list of participants is attached in Annex I. The work programme is also attached in Annex II. Directors and experts attending the consultation meeting presented country papers on the status of flood forecasting in the Zambezi Basin in their respective countries. Invited experts from regional and international organizations presented different activities in their organizations related to flood forecasting in the Zambezi Basin. The main objectives of the meeting were to bring together all interested parties to agree on the development of a framework for flood forecasting and early warning system for the Zambezi Basin and to gather necessary information from countries in the Zambezi Basin to support the development of the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Strategy in the Zambezi Basin and the implementation of a Demonstration Project. 1. OPENING OF THE MEETING 1.1 Mr Daniel Lampiao, General Inspector, Ministry of Transport and Communication, opened the meeting on behalf of the Minister of Transport and Communication. He presented an apology from the Minister who, due to unavoidable circumstances, was unable to come to the meeting. On behalf of the Government of Mozambique, he welcomed the participants to Maputo and expressed gratitude for choosing Mozambique to host this important meeting, as this showed sympathy for the people of Mozambique and reflected the importance of flood issues in the country. 1.2 Mr Lampiao informed participants that Mozambique is extremely vulnerable to floods, being a country most downstream in the Zambezi Basin. Floods in the Zambezi Basin are frequent and they affect the socio-economic development of the people in the Basin countries. He pointed out that, therefore, exchange of meteorological and hydrological information during the rainy season is important and crucial. He stressed the need for an information system to support the decision making process. He wished participants an enjoyable stay in Mozambique and a successful meeting. 1.3 In his opening remarks, Mr Avinash Tyagi, Director, Climate and Water Department of WMO welcomed the participants and conveyed greetings of WMO s Secretary General to the participants. He thanked the Government of Mozambique for hosting the meeting and the Mozambique Meteorological Service, INAM for their support and excellent arrangements for the meeting. He also thanked participants for having responded to the invitation and accepted to participate in the meeting to discuss the important issues of flood forecasting and early warning in the Zambezi River Basin. He highlighted the importance of the workshop for the Zambezi Basin as it will contribute in saving lives of people in the countries in the Zambezi Basin and bring benefits associated with floods in the basin. 5

9 1.4 Mr Tyagi briefed the meeting on the objectives and expected outcome of the workshop. Further, he informed participants that WMO has been assisting in different activities in the SADC region, including SADC-HYCOS, the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project and the Southern Africa Region Flash Flood Guidance System which will contribute to the development of FFEW Strategy for the Zambezi Basin. He wished participants fruitful deliberations. 1.5 On behalf of USAID, Mr Tom Ray, Acting Director for Mozambique Mission, welcomed the participants and expressed his gratitude to WMO and the representatives of USAID from Washington and Pretoria offices for inviting him to address the meeting. Mr Ray stressed that cooperation among countries in the Zambezi Basin is essential for reducing impacts of floods. He noted that the Zambezi River floods are recurring events and every year floods cause havoc in the Basin. He noted the complexity of flood mitigation efforts in the Basin due to limited exchange of information and data in real-time to provide necessary lead times to disaster managers to take appropriate actions. He pointed out a lack of integrated flood warning system in the Basin. 1.6 Mr Ray informed participants that USAID/OFDA has been supporting flood initiatives in different parts of the world, including Africa, in partnership with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the countries in the Zambezi Basin and WMO. Currently, among other various projects, USAID/OFDA has supported implementation of the Flash Flood Guidance System in the SADC region and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in East Africa. 1.7 Mr. Harlan Hale, Principal Regional Advisor from USAID/OFDA South Africa Regional Office noted that the Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Project is an important initiative. He informed participants that his office has several goals which include flood mitigation, flood preparedness, recovery from floods and managing the risks from floods. His office had responded to numerous requests for assistance from different countries to deal with the effects of floods. He noted that the meeting provided a good opportunity for USAID to work closely with WMO in the Zambezi Basin and come up with a strategy for early warning. 1.8 Mr. Moisés Vicente Benessene, Director of Mozambique Meteorological Service (INAM), welcomed the participants to Maputo. He thanked USAID for sponsoring the meeting and WMO for providing technical expertise. He expressed hope that the workshop would be an opportunity to exchange experiences in flood forecasting and warning and come up with an agreement on how to move forward to solve the problems of floods in the Zambezi Basin. 2. TECHNICAL PRESENTATIONS 2.1 INTRODUCTION OF MEETING CONTENTS, OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND EXPECTED OUTCOMES Mr. Avinash Tyagi, Director, Climate and Water Department of WMO made an introductory presentation on the purpose, objectives, scope and expected outcomes of the meeting. In his presentation, he briefed participants on the background of the project and WMO s approach to start with confidence building at technical and political levels and address the institutional requirements. Mr. Tyagi reminded participants that floods do not always have a negative impact, and can be a source of natural resources; therefore, we should get maximum benefits from the flood plains. He recalled the flood disasters in the Zambezi River Basin that have been occurring since the year 2000 and explained the need for preparedness, response, recovery as well as mitigation/prevention to manage floods He recalled that the Zambezi Basin suffers from absence of regional/basin mechanism for flood forecasting in the basin; lack of integrated flood warning system or protocol; poor communication facilities; limited exchange of information and data in real-time; and timing information on the releases from Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams which can contribute to flooding in downstream countries. Other issues include collaboration between NHSs and NMSs and hence a lack of full utilization of meteorological forecasts in flood forecasting; lack of proper tools in most 6

10 NMSs, NHSs and response agencies; and limited capability for flood forecasting and issuing of timely and accurate flood warnings Mr. Tyagi briefed the meeting on WMO s Flood Forecasting Initiative whose objective was to improve the capacity of meteorological and hydrological services to jointly deliver timely and more accurate products and services required in flood forecasting and warning and in collaborating with disaster managers. He pointed out that this project forms an integral part of the WMO Flood Forecasting Initiative (FFI) Participants noted that WMO, in collaboration with USAID/OFDA, are proposing to develop a Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Strategy for the Zambezi Basin, whose goal is to reduce adverse impacts of floods in the Basin by providing an operational capacity for flood forecasting and early warning and mitigation on the basis of a strategy. The objective of the project is to improve flood preparedness and response in the countries in the Zambezi Basin It was pointed out that the Regional Consultation meeting being held was to: assess capacity for flood forecasting and early warning; initiate confidence building among countries in the Zambezi Basin for greater and real-time sharing of flood information; outline a framework for cooperation among the countries in the Zambezi Basin; initiate the way forward to formulate a consensus long-term flood forecasting and early warning strategy; and identify an area for the demonstration project. The expected outcome would be a regional consensus on development of a flood forecasting and early warning Strategy for the Zambezi Basin. The Final product will be Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Strategy for the Zambezi Basin. Comments from participants Participants noted that WMO had invited Angola and GTZ among other international agencies active in the region. Unfortunately there was no response from Angola. They emphasized that Tanzania should be involved in the project and should be invited in subsequent meetings. It was clarified that the Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) was not yet fully established as the required number of countries to ratify the ZAMCOM Agreement have not yet signed. However, an Interim ZAMCOM secretariat had been established and is expected to be operational soon. The meeting was informed that there is a Climate Outlook Forum within the Basin which provides seasonal climate outlooks prepared by NMSs in Zambia. It was also noted that relation between the NMSs and NHSs is very important to ensure successful management of flood issues. Participants emphasized that the National Stakeholders Workshops should be organized by the countries themselves in order to ensure ownership. 2.2 ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IN SUPPORTING REGIONAL COOPERATION The USAID/OFD representatives made two presentations on the role of international community in supporting regional co-operations on flood issues with focus on some transboundary programmes which have been implemented by the USAID Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) in different regions Dr Sezin Tokar of USAID/OFDA, Washington presented a brief introduction to the USAID/OFDA and its mission. She informed participants that OFDA was undertaking 7

11 hydrometeorological interventions at community, national, regional and global levels in different parts of the world and narrated the different activities implemented Dr Tokar presented the Global Flash Flood Guidance System (GFFGS) implemented by OFDA and WMO. Participants were informed that the objectives of GFFGS were: to provide early warnings of potential flash floods; to strengthen the capacity of NMSs and NHSs; to encourage transboundary collaboration; and to improve community awareness of flash flood disasters to permit action She informed participants that RANET is a successful tool developed for information dissemination and it demonstrated collaboration of national weather services working to improve information dissemination to rural and remote populations One of the activities supported by OFDA is training. Under this programme, ninety meteorologists from more than 33 African nations have been trained as of August There is also residency training of 12 meteorologists from Africa every year. Regional hands-on training workshops are also conducted Mr Richard Paulson of NOAA/NWS made another presentation on International River Basin Flood Strategy Development. He described a 4-step participatory process to implement international river basin systems that has proven to be useful. He informed participants that planning for international river basin forecasting and warning systems must consider both technical and institutional issues Mr Paulson presented a case study on Flood Management and Mitigation Programme Formulation in the Lower Mekong River Basin. He informed participants that Mekong River Commission (MRC) is implementing a Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Programme, supported by a Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Member states participating in the programme are Cambodia, Laos PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam. Their website is He informed the participants about the participatory steps in Flood Management and Mitigation Programme (FMMP) strategy formulation. He also informed participants about other similar regional initiatives supported by the international development community. Comments from participants Participants expressed appreciation and interest in USAID/OFD support to developing countries and emphasized the need for more support to capacity building specially in on job training. Communications using the RANET network and support to Climate Out look forums were commended by the participants. They also appreciated USAID/OFDA and NOOA collaboration with WMO to ensure successful implementation of the projects. 3. COUNTRY PRESENTATIONS 3.1 Based on the list of specific issues that had been circulated by WMO, representatives from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Disaster Management Offices were invited to make presentations on their current situations. The presentations are summarized below. 3.2 BOTSWANA The agencies having defined roles regarding floods are Department of Meteorological Services which provides seasonal climate outlooks and three day weather forecasts, Department of Water Affairs which is responsible for collection of hydrometric data and provision of forecasts of river levels, and Disaster Management Office which is responsible for inter-sectoral coordination of disaster management and recovery preparedness efforts. 8

12 3.2.2 The Department of Meteorological Services with trained weather forecasters is maintaining a network of instrumentation to help forecasting and has organised forecast dissemination tools. However, the Department of Water Affairs has a shortage of trained staff in flood forecasting, is not well equipped in terms of instrumentation, possesses rudimentary methods for forecasting and is not well organised in terms of disseminating forecasts Botswana has no formal data sharing policy and protocols. Data is shared through bilateral agreements, that is, loose Agreements with neighbouring countries in the Zambezi Basin, particularly Namibia. Data sharing is through . Apart from the SADC-HYCOS network there is no other real time instrumentation for flood forecasting. The SADC-HYCOS stations often have transmission problems and malfunctioning instruments The Botswana NMS provides one to three day weather forecasts, which are communicated through radio, television and newspapers. The users of the forecasts are Disaster Management Office, District Commissioners Office and District Disaster Teams. The forecasts are not very accurate as there is no quantitative rainfall forecast. The lead time for warnings is not sufficient, and often floods arrive before adequate plans are made There is good cooperation and collaborative efforts for forecasting between the agencies. There is no established methodology used for flood forecasting - the methodology used is very rudimentary Flooding seldom occurs in Botswana and the country has arid conditions for most of the time. Therefore reservoirs are not planned for flood management and there are no flood forecasting procedures for dams. 3.3 MALAWI The network of Meteorological Monitoring Stations consists of 22 full Meteorological Stations; 21 Subsidiary Agro-meteorological Stations; 9 Automatic Weather Stations; over 400 Subsidiary Rainfall Stations scattered across the country; and a satellite receiving station, the Meteosat Second Generation, capable of accessing satellite imageries at 15 minute intervals and at more wavelengths (12 channels). The network of hydrological monitoring stations consists of 170 discharge gauging stations, 24 water level stations and 6 SADC-HYCOS stations Organizations responsible for flood management in Malawi are Department of Water Resources which is responsible for flood forecasting and early warning; Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DoCCMS) which monitors the weather conditions and issues forecasts and warnings of severe weather including Tropical Cyclones; and Dept of Disaster Management Affairs(DoDMA) which coordinates flood management and disaster preparedness The Surface Water Division within the Department of Water Resources is responsible for flood forecasting and early warning. The flood warning system relies on reports on water levels received from gauge readers; rainfall data of 30 mm or more, weather forecasts from the DoCCMS; satellite information and numerical products The legal framework in Malawi has been manifested through drafting and passing of the Disaster Preparedness and Relief Management Act, No 27 of 1991; establishment of the Department of Poverty and Disaster Management Affairs, now DoDMA; and provision of the institutional framework for disaster risk management in the country A variety of communication channels are used to disseminate information. These include radio and television; the internet; newspapers; telephones (mobile and wired); bulletins and newsletters; press conferences and briefings vital for a wide coverage of important events such as high impact weather events. 9

13 3.3.6 DoDMA, working in collaboration with NGOs and District Assemblies, is building capacity of disaster risk management structures at community level known as Civil Protection Committees to effectively prepare for different types of disasters including floods. Capacity is being built to ensure effective participation of communities in flood preparedness Challenges associated with the early warning system include lack of modern equipment for early warning and communication purposes; serious weakness in dissemination of information to the vulnerable communities; and lack of practical capacity at the community level about the use of early warning information. Specific flood warning only covers Lower Shire Valley. There is a need to enhance coordination between the stakeholders dealing with FF&EW The Shire Waterway Project in Malawi, that might involve dredging the Shire River for navigability to the Indian Ocean, has been classified as priority within priorities in Malawi. There is the question though of likely effects of dredging as sedimentation from uplands development is now causing flooding. However, dredging is needed to restore navigation. 3.4 MOZAMBIQUE Mozambique is a country that suffers from frequent floods caused by prolonged rains and tropical cyclones. Being at the downstream end of the Zambezi River, the country is affected by floodwaters originating both from within and outside its borders. Further, eight international river basins drain through Mozambique into the Indian Ocean The responsibility for flood forecasting in Mozambique rests primarily with the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM), located in the Ministry of Transport and Communication. INAM also monitors weather events using regional and global NWP models such as BRAMS, HRM, SWAS_UM-12, ECMWF, UK Met-UM, and GFS. It also, collects and exchanges meteorological data through GTS. The INAM weather radars network with South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) radars. During the rainy season and when floods occur, weather forecasts and hydrological bulletins are prepared by INAM, which also provides daily briefings to all concerned parties The National Directorate of Waters (DNA) coordinates with regional institutions in the management of the international rivers, namely Maputo, Umbeluzi, Incomati, Limpopo, Pungue and Zambezi. DNA also carries out water quality and groundwater monitoring The National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC) is the executive organ of the Coordinating Council which coordinates the government, NGO s, communities at risk and local or regional organizations in all activities related to the prevention, preparedness and mitigation of natural disasters in the country Mozambique has good working relations with many institutions and collects data from Zambia and Namibia within the framework of the Revised SADC Protocol on Shared Water Courses, 2003 to operate its flood forecasting model developed in Denmark. 3.5 NAMIBIA The Namibia National Meteorological Service, which is under the Ministry of Works and Transport, is responsible for meteorological forecasts and climate issues. The National Hydrological Service (Hydrology Division) which is under the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry is responsible for monitoring river flow, maintaining hydrological database, and publishing and disseminating hydrological information. There is no specified responsibility or mandate for flood forecasting and early warning, though it is assumedly carried out between the National Meteorological Service and National Hydrological Service In terms of policy and legal settings, there is a National Disaster Risk Management Policy and Disaster Management Bill. Institutionally, there is the Directorate Disaster Risk Management located in the Office of Prime Minister; National, Regional, Constituency, Local Authority and 10

14 Settlement Disaster Risk Management Committees, which are ad-hoc; and National Focal Persons Forum, which includes the NHS In 2009, Namibia has experienced the highest floods in living memory in Cuvelai, the highest on record in Kwando, and the highest since 1969 in Zambezi. Dried out lakes have filled up and one third of Namibia s population has been affected. This situation calls for early warning from upstream countries. The associated specific needs are weather and rainfall predictions, rainfall information, flooding potential, river flow predictions, flood mapping and communications River flow predictions are done through a combination of hydraulic or hydrological routing and using intermediate rainfall and runoff. For the Lower Orange Basin, they are developed or being developed through empirical routing, hydrological routing or through a hydraulic model (MIKE11), and for the Zambezi Basin it is through empirical routing. Flood mapping in Namibia requires qualitative information to determine development of floods upstream and monitor the movement of water in drainage channels, and also quantitative information to quantify the extent of flooding during disasters and for long-term flood mapping Namibia will be implementing in 2010 the Sensorweb project to demonstrate the usefulness of remote sensing to flood forecasting. It will be supported by Namibia Hydrology, UNOOSA/UNSPIDER, DLR (Germany), NASA (USA), NOAA (USA), SRI (Ukraine), NSPO (Taiwan) and CSA (Canada). It is an operational system for near-real time flood mapping. The operational pilot component will start during the 2010 flood season and will cover the northern border rivers of Namibia. There will also be a comprehensive decision support component, which will be long-term. A project meeting will be held during the last week of January, 2010 and all organizations willing to make inputs are invited. 3.6 ZAMBIA In Zambia, responsibility for flood forecasting, flood management and/or disaster preparedness is assigned to the following institutions: Department of Water Affairs (DWA) - through the Water Act 1949; Zambia Meteorological Dept (ZMD) - Government Gazzete Notice, 1992; Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) - through ZRA Acts No. 17 Zambia and 19 Zimbabwe; and Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) through DMMU Act and the Disaster Management Policy. Agencies responsible for flood forecasting and disaster preparedness are DWA, ZMD, ZRA, DMMU and Zambia Electric Supply Company (ZESCO). Organisations responsible for flood management include the NHS, NMS, ZRA, DMMU, Defence Forces and Local Councils. Zambia does not have a flood policy, but there is the National Disaster Policy and the operational manual that relate to flood forecasting The current institutional capacities are limited in terms of numbers of skilled personnel and specialized equipment. Improvement is required in the following areas: i) Forecasting skills, ii) Retention of skilled personnel, iii) Restructuring and voluntary separation programme, iv) Flood forecasting tools, and v) Data collection network Regarding data exchange and sharing, the existing policy is to provide this information at a fee. However Government, educational and research institutions are exempted. Limited data and information is available free of charge on the websites of Ministry of Energy and Water Development ( and ZRA ( Data and information is shared freely on projects involving DWA, ZMD, DMMU and ZRA. Information is also shared freely on request from Zambezi countries in the Zambezi Basin within the framework of cooperation among SADC countries Basic data collection networks in Zambia are hydrometric, meteorological, telemetry and water quality networks. The data is of good quality for flood forecasting purposes. Meteorological products provided include Daily, 5-7 days, 10 days and Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts (SRF). Weather forecasts are communicated through , TV, Community Radio stations (RANET), HF radio transceivers and phone. SRF are communicated through workshops, , National 11

15 Agricultural Information Service (NAIS), phone, RANET, DMMU and Donor Advisory meetings. Products of NMS used by NHS are mainly Daily rainfall, 5-7 days, 10 days weather SRF and 10 days crop weather bulletin. There is strong cooperation between ZMD and DWA The DWA, ZMD, ZESCO and WWF developed the Kafriba Model, an integrated model for flood forecasting in the lower Kafue Basin. The DMMU, DWA, ZMD, CSO and MEWD are developing a Community Multi-Hazard Early Warning System to relate the river stage to areas of inundation in the neighboring communities. DWA uses the HYDATA model for general hydrological data processing, and flooding trends are usually related with rainfall forecasts. Forecasts are used for all sectors Forecast product acts as one of the inputs into the water balance model for Kariba reservoir whose results are used by the power utilities and downstream communities, DMMU and HCB. Forecasts are disseminated through various means including letters (normal), press releases (normal/emergency), phone (emergency), (normal/emergency), personal visits (emergency), TV, Fax, RANET, NAIS, and workshops Some recommendations of the Strategy for Flood Management in Kafue Basin, which was developed with assistance from WMO, are being implemented by ZESCO, the power utility company, for managing dam water levels. 3.7 ZIMBABWE The responsibility of disaster preparedness, coordination and response rests with the Department of Civil Protection (DCP), which is housed within the Ministry of Rural and Urban Development. DCP can call on any government department or private sector to assist wherever such assistance may be required Disaster management activities are provided for in the Civil Protection Act, the nucleus for coordination of all disaster management activities in the country. It was established in the form of National, Provincial and District Civil Protection Committees. The Committees are made up of key government ministries that deal mostly with emergencies and disasters. The Civil Protection Act is undergoing revision and is soon to be renamed Emergency Preparedness and Disaster Management Act, in line with international practice The Meteorological Services Act [Chapter 13:21], 2003 established the Meteorological Services Department as the sole authority on weather and climate-related matters in Zimbabwe. A key function of the Department is to issue timely, accurate and credible weather and climate forecasts, and advance warnings on weather conditions likely to endanger lives, livelihoods and property Two acts, the Water Act [Chapter 20:24] and the Zambezi River Authority Act - ZINWA [Chapter 20:25], 1998, promote Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) at basin (catchment) level. They have since been adopted as a basis for water resources management in Zimbabwe. The Ministry of Water Resources Development & Management and ZINWA are mandated with the management of water resources with the participation of stakeholders in the country. The Ministry is responsible for policy formulation while ZINWA collects and disseminates hydrological data such as river levels, river flow and dam levels to users both local and regional There is a serious human capacity crisis in Zimbabwe due to the macroeconomic environment which has prevailed over the last 3 years. A lot of experienced human resources left for greener pastures. Some of these employees had been trained in the handling of flood forecasts and early warning system The river flow monitoring system in Zimbabwe consists of 350 automatic water level recorders located at various points on the rivers. The water level information is recorded on charts, which are changed once a week and sent to the Data Processing Section for conversion to flow 12

16 data. In the event of floods the Observers who man the stations are required to send water level readings by telephone on a daily basis to the Head Office. Only 5 stations out of 350 automatic water level recorders in Zimbabwe have real time capabilities, with an additional 8 set to be commissioned by mid next year through the SADC HYCOS Phase 3 project Flood Forecasting in Zimbabwe is through use of water levels on rivers and dams from recorder stations, and use of spatial data GIS Information dissemination is done through newspapers, national radio, television, weekly rainfall & agro-meteorological bulletin, phones, internet/ and DCP provincial and district structures Major challenges are: inadequate flood forecasting skills; inaccurate quantification of flood events; lack of formal agreements on exchange of flood related information among countries in the Zambezi basin; inaccessibility of satellite based rainfall estimates; inadequate real time network and data; inadequate hydrological information about upstream and downstream flood events; lack of temporal/spatial flood forecasting model; labour migration; and maintenance of rainfall and runoff stations. Comments from participants Participants noted the differences in capacities between the countries in the Zambezi River Basin and agreed to consider the presentation when identifying their needs. 4. REGIONAL INSTITUTIONS PRESENTATIONS 4.1 ZAMBEZI RIVER AUTHORITY A presentation on Zambezi River Authority was made by Mr. Wilson Sakala. The ZRA is a bi-national (Zambia and Zimbabwe) institution which came into being on 1st October 1987 through parallel registration in the parliaments of Zambia and Zimbabwe (Acts No. 17 and 19). Article 9 of the ZRA Act spells out its functions The relevant functions which give ZRA the responsibility of flood forecasting/flood management and/or disaster preparedness are: a) Operate, monitor and maintain the Kariba Dam Complex (Kariba Dam and reservoir, telemetry stations and any other installations owned by ZRA); b) Subject to approval of the Council, construct, operate, monitor and maintain any other dams on the Zambezi River; c) Collect, accumulate and process hydrological and environmental data of the Zambezi River for improved performance of its functions and for any other purpose beneficial to the Contracting States; d) In consultation with the National Electricity Undertakings, regulate the water level in the Kariba reservoir and in any other reservoirs owned by the Authority; e) Make such recommendations to the Council as will ensure the effective use of the water and other resources of the Zambezi River; and f) Liaise with National Electricity Undertakings in the performance of its functions that may affect the generation and transmission of electricity to the Contracting States Kariba Dam, located across the Zimbabwe and Zambia border, is the third largest reservoir in Africa and regulates about one-third of the Zambezi River flow to the Indian Ocean. There is no forecasting model for the lower sub-catchment. There is need for improvements in the areas of network, equipment and modeling tools ZRA has three basic data collection networks: Hydrometric, Telemetry and Water Quality networks. Data from hydrometric network is transmitted by HF radio and cell phones while telemetry data is via . ZRA s data exchange and sharing policy is similar to that of Zambia. In addition, limited data and information is available free of charge on the ZRA website ( ZRA shares data freely on projects in which it participates as part of its contribution. Currently, ZRA is developing an MoU with ARA Zambeze, HCB and ZESCO on data 13

17 and information exchange. ZRA has agreed to make existing historical data in its database freely available to the Zambezi River Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System being developed ZRA uses two methodologies for flow forecasting: Index-Variable and Exponential Decay curve. The Index-Variable method is used for the rising part of the hydrograph (wet season). The model gives one month lead time for flows at Victoria Falls. The lead time between Victoria Falls and Kariba Dam is approximately two weeks. Forecasts are mainly for internal use. However the general public, especially lodge owners receive it on request. Forecast products play a key role in reservoir operations as it is one of the inputs into the simulations for lake level (water balance model) for Kariba reservoir. Results include EOM level, spillage amounts, and available water for power generation at specified target. Results from the simulations are used by the power utilities ARA Zambeze, Cahora Bassa and downstream communities and DMMU Warning lead time depends on whether it is a normal or an emergency situation. In normal situations, at least two weeks lead time is given while in emergency situations lead time varies and may be reduced to even one day. The procedure followed in disseminating information in a flood situation is well documented in the Standing Operating Procedures (SOP) for Kariba dam published by ZRA. 4.2 SADC SECRETARIAT (SADC WATER DIVISION) A presentation on SADC Secretariat and the Zambezi Basin was made by Dr Kenneth Msibi. SADC (formerly SADCC) started in In 1987 SADC mandated the SADC Secretariat to facilitate and coordinate activities of the Zambezi River Basin. In the same year the Zambezi Action Plan (ZACPLAN) consisting of 19 projects (ZACPROs) was adopted. The projects are in two categories whereby category one is of Priority projects (ZACPRO 1 to ZACPRO 8) and category two is Complementary projects (ZACPRO 9 to ZACPRO 19) The cooperation process in the Zambezi Basin has been a two-pronged approach: a) preparation and implementation of tangible basin-wide programmes, and b) River Basin legal cooperation agreement negotiations (ZAMCOM). The first discussion Document of ZAMCOM Agreement was formed in 1993, though it stalled in In July 2004 the ZAMCOM Agreement was signed by 7 of the 8 countries in the Zambezi Basin. To date, 4 countries (Angola, Botswana, Mozambique and Namibia) have ratified the Agreement. Two additional ratifications are required to bring the Agreement into force. An interim ZAMCOM Secretariat (IZS) is expected to be established soon to facilitate ongoing processes and coordinate initiatives in the Basin. In July 2009, Ministers responsible for Water from countries in the Zambezi Basin adopted an Interim ZAMCOM Governance Structure Challenges are: a) Establishing a new river basin management institution in tandem with operationalizing the Principle of Equitable and Reasonable Utilization; b) Striking a balance between State Sovereignty with transboundary cooperation; and c) Integrated approach to flood management. 4.3 SADC-HYCOS - PROJECT Mr Obonetse Alfred Masedi Task Manager, SADC Secretariat (Executing Agency of SADC- HYCOS) made a brief presentation on the position of SADC HYCOS Programme that it is a component of the SADC Regional Strategic Action Plan (RSAP). He informed the meeting that RSAP is a SADC Water Sector Programme under implementation comprising of priority projects. He further briefed the meeting that the EU and The Netherlands funded Phase II and that the Republic of South Africa through the Department of Water Affairs is the Project Implementing Agency in which the Project Management Unit is established, and that, WMO provides a technical advisory support A presentation on SADC-Hydrological Cycle Observing System (SADC-HYCOS) was made by Mr. Mbangiseni Nepfumbada from Department of Water Affairs, South Africa on behalf of the 14

18 Project Regional Center (PRC). In his presentation, he briefed the meeting on the background of SADC-HYCOS phase I & II. Further he informed participants about the planned SADC HYCOS Phase III, which focuses on attaining a fully functional and calibrated monitoring network; strengthening the National Hydrological Services to manage their water resources; awareness building; capacity building and promotion of SADC HYCOS project activities (including generation of information products); and long term sustainability of the project. 4.4 ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA (ECA) A presentation on Regional Cooperation and Confidence Building was made by Mr. Johnson Akinbola Oguntola, from Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). One of Africa s development challenges is strengthening African institutions in order to improve governance and management of the development process. Climate change has introduced a new dimension to the potential benefits of cooperation in the context of upstream-downstream linkages. This follows increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events (e.g. floods and draughts), and increase in flood-related disasters ECA played catalytic and supportive roles in the establishment of some existing RBOs in Africa and provided them with technical, advisory and backstopping services over the years. Recently, ECA prepared a proposal to SADC for the establishment of a basin-wide regulatory institution on the Zambezi basin. The proposal is being discussed with SADC in light of donorsupported activities on the basin coordinated by SADC. The draft proposal by ECA was shared with WMO to include SADC-HYCOS for addressing issues related to integrated flood management and early warning system. The proposal has also a component to strengthen the capacity of DMC- SADC through ClimDev-Africa Programme. Comments from participants Participants noted the strong links between regional institutions and their possible contribution to the implementation of a FFEW strategy. They agreed to consider the potential contribution available, within regional institutions, when identifying their needs. 5. INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL INITIATIVES IN ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN RELATED TO FFEW 5.1 SADC HYCOS PHASE II In order to consider SADC-HYCOS contribution to the FFEW Strategy, a presentation on SADC-Hydrological Cycle Observing System Phase II was made by Mr. Musariri Musariri from the Project Management Unit. He briefed the meeting on the objectives and activities undertaken in SADC-HYCOS Phase II. One challenge of SADC-HYCOS is that the equipment provided by the SADC-HYCOS Project is not likely to address all the data needs as the coverage area is still far below the WMO guideline per gauging station. Another challenge is that most stations only measure water level which is insufficient for flood management and development of hydrological products. Other challenges are destruction of stations by floods; data transmission protocols are unsuitable for developing countries; and vandalism and theft of field equipment Kafue River, Luangwa River, Mazowe River, and Musengezi River provide substantial flows into Cahora Bassa Dam. The SADC-HYCOS stations on these rivers provide data necessary for managing flood flows into Cahora Bassa Dam and subsequently the lower Zambezi River subbasin. The Manyame River and Ruenya River contribute substantial inflows to the lower Zambezi River sub-basin, but are currently not covered by the SADC-HYCOS network Tributaries of the Zambezi River originating from Angola are not being monitored and yet they are important in terms of their contribution to the flows particularly when floods occur. Expansion of the network on this part is also recommended. 15

19 5.2 SOUTHERN AFRICA REGIONAL FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SYSTEM (SARFFG) A presentation on the Southern African Region Flash Flood Guidance System (SARFFG) was made by Mr. Eugene Poolman, representing the project regional centre, to introduce the project and highlight links between SARFFG and the development and implementation of FFEW Strategy for the Zambezi Basin Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) is defined as an estimate of how much rainfall over a specified time in a small basin is needed to initiate flooding on small streams. Flash floods are quick response flood events causing sudden flooding in small river basins. Flooding river follows within 6 hours or less after the heavy rain event. They are typically associated with small fast responding basins SARFFG is covering basins in SADC countries and will be implemented using satellitebased Hydro-estimator rainfall estimation in basins of average size of 200 km 2 (about 15x15 km). It will use the same cascading concept as in Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP). It will work through a combination of weather information and hydrological information in real-time to give an indication which small river basin is in danger of flooding in the next 0-6 hours To be effective, flash flood forecasting needs collaboration between meteorologists, hydrologists and disaster managers. Intensive workshops are needed between NMHSs and DMCs to understand what products disaster managers will need, and how it must be packaged and sent to them. Training workshops with forecasters and DMCs are also important in order to understand the products and to develop operational procedures. 5.3 SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (SWFDP) A presentation on Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) was also made by Mr. Eugene Poolman representing SAWS. WMO initiated the SWFDP concept to reduce the increasing gap, in developing countries, of application of modern forecasting technology (NWP, EPS) in early warnings, and improve early warning system (EWS) in developing regions using existing technology. The goal of the project is to enhance early warning against weather extremes in Southern Africa Regarding improved lead-time of warnings, the occurrence of Tropical Cyclone Favio over Mozambique and Zimbabwe during Feb 2007 provided the opportunity to test the SWFDP cascading process and contributed to lessons learned in the demonstration period. The model guidance correctly indicated landfall 5 days in advance whereby both Mozambique and Zimbabwe s NMCs issued warnings 5 days in advance to disaster management departments SWFDP was successful in building forecasting capacity and closing the technological gap in the region. At the same time, it highlighted that, in effective warning dissemination, interaction between NMHSs, disaster management authorities, media and reaction of public is still a challenge. It also proved that the technology gap can be effectively bridged through a practical, operational approach. SWFDP has developed a successful framework on early warnings through collaboration between global, regional and national meteorological centres in Southern Africa. It is simple and operational system as it needs only an internet connection. 5.4 ARA-ZAMBEZE A presentation was made by Mr. Manuel Malaze from ARA-Zambeze, a Zambezi River Basin Regional Authority in Mozambique. He briefed the participants on activities undertaken before and during the rainy season including, inspection and general maintenance of hydrological observing network; testing of the equipment for measuring river flow; field mission to measure river flow; maintenance of a communication system; maintenance of the model of flood warning system; refreshment courses for observers; and meetings with other entities that manage water resources of the Zambezi. 16

20 5.4.2 He presented some of the technical data and information including, the rainfall season of , the national and regional outlook for , the observation and communication networks in Mozambique, the hhydrological system and main hydrometric network, exchange of information, and examples of floods for the period Comments from participants Considering substantial flows from Manyame and Ruenya Rivers particularly when floods occur, it is recommended to cover the two catchments by comprehensive hydrological network. It is suggested to establish real time measuring stations within SADC-HYCOS network to include two catchments within SADC-HYCOS coverage area. The SWFDP and SARFFG have cemented the relationship between NMSs and NHSs and have helped to reduce loss of life in the Region and it is recommended to be expand to these projects over other countries. 6. COUNTRY NEEDS, CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES AND SPECIFIC ISSUES 6.1 Based on country presentations, experts from NMSs, NHSs and DMA from six countries in the Zambezi Basin discussed various issues related to the development of FFEW Strategy for the Zambezi basin with regional and international experts and identified their countries needs, challenges facing their countries and available opportunities in the basin. These issues are summarized below: Country Needs i. Strengthen Monitoring network: This require modernization of instruments and equipments and selecting appropriate transmission system suitable to the socioeconomic environment. ii. iii. iv. Real-time data: There is a need to improve capacity to receive and interpret satellite data to ensure access to real-time data. In this regard training on GIS and access to Satellite data is very important. Flood forecasting Models: To enhance national capability to analyze, interpret hydrological data and produce useful products, access to flood forecasting Models with related training is required in all countries. Capacity building: The staff requires comprehensive training programmes in various aspects of flood forecasting including installations and maintenance of equipment, data collection and processing, transmission and management. v. Communication strategy: to be developed to introduce new communication tools and to ensure wide contact with all stakeholders. vi. vii. viii. Exchange of experiences and lessons learned among participating countries will assist them to find solution to the problem related to vandalism. Flood management policy and strategy: The IFM concept needs to be introduced and promoted in the countries in the Zambezi Basin. Developing IFM Strategy in the countries will contribute to better management of floods in the countries. Active involvement of ZRA: More involvement of regional institution including ZRA will allow them to actively participate in the basin activities and provide their experiences. 17

21 Challenges i. Convincing Governments to be committed to investment in FF & EW. ii. iii. iv. Bringing all countries in the Zambezi Basin to actively participate in the project in order to improve and sustain basin wide cooperation. Strengthen NMHSs capacity to maintain and sustain the FFEW systems and to produce quality products to gain trust of different stakeholders. Promoting public awareness and encouraging community participation to ensure successful operation of FFEW system. v. Adapting existing infrastructures to manage the extreme events under Climate Change conditions. Opportunities i. Existence of regional institution (SADC) for supporting regional and basin wide initiatives. ii. iii. iv. Interest of international developing and cooperating partners to support basin initiatives in the region. International recognition and awareness of flood impacts in the Zambezi basin. Existence of potential hydropower dams and other hydraulic structures in the basin. v. Availability of hydrological and meteorological near real-time network. vi. vii. Existence of basic databases at national level. Active and strong NGOs and Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) working in the basin. Specific Issues: i. In the spirit of integration, the revised Protocol on Shared Water Courses, 2003, spells out how international rivers within the SADC community shall be managed. It also stresses the importance of information dissemination during floods and droughts to neighbouring countries in order to reduce adverse impacts, including formation of basin committees to manage shared river basins in the region. ii. iii. iv. The major focus of RBOs activities in SADC sub region is water resources planning, managment and environmental studies. It is noted that there is a need for more focus on hydrology and flood forecasting and early warning activities. Noting the Dam synchronisation Project under SADC which will commence soon and it is agreed that proper flood forecasting and early warning systems coupled with dam synchronization will ensure dam releases without causing damage to downstream stakeholders. On internationally operated dams, improvement has been achieved on communication issues. Currently Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams have established communication links. 18

22 v. Community participation and involvement on projects should be considered to prevent vandalism of remote equipment. People should be sensitized to feel ownership of the field equipment. vi. vii. The WMO Quality Management Framework and standardization measures such as WMO guidelines and manuals should be introduced and widely used in the Region. SADC will collaborate and cooperate with WMO in developing the FFEW Strategy and the implementation of any other WMO projects in the sub region. 7. ZAMBEZI BASIN FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING STRATEGY 7.1 Mr A. Tyagy, WMO representative briefed the meeting on the objectives of the proposed strategy, its components, issues to be considered and the development procedures. The main objective of the proposed Strategy is to assist countries in the Zambezi Basin to have an integrated basin wide strategy to address flood issues and strengthen regional cooperation to reduce losses of lives and properties. The implementation of the Strategy will contribute to sustainable socio economic development and support the countries efforts to achieve the MDGs. 7.2 The strategy will also consider the need for Integrated Flood Management (IFM) which is a development policy concept aimed at minimizing loss of life and livelihoods from flooding and at the same time maximize efficient use of floodplains within the context of poverty alleviation and sustainable development. It will also take account of the fact that climate variability and change has the potential to further exacerbate flood risks, which is already rising due to factors such as population and economic growth and large scale land-use alterations. 7.3 However, IFM approach requires addressing flood management issues in a river basin holistically requiring inter-disciplinary and inter-departmental collaboration and cooperation. The Strategy will consider stakeholder s participation from early stages of implementation. One of the pre-requisites in such cases is to bring various agencies together to build confidence and with a view to share the data and information across the boundaries. The Strategy will include actions to strengthen regional cooperation and promote data and information exchange. 7.4 Participants noted that the strategy will be developed and implemented through five major steps: Regional Consultations National Stakeholder consultations Regional Institution Building Strengthening flood forecasting and early warning through a demonstration project Development of the flood forecasting and early warning strategy 7.5 WMO in consultation with USAID will identify a lead consultant to help develop and finalize the Strategy. WMO will prepare TOR for the consultants and the National consultations. 7.6 WMO will consult and work closely with SADC Secretariat on formalizing the collaboration on the Zambezi Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Strategy 8. FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING DEMONSTRATION PROJECT 8.1 Mr A. Tyagi WMO representative briefed the meeting on the scope and objectives of the Demonstration Project. On the basis of existing initiatives in the region and the development of a comprehensive long-term strategy, a demonstration project on flood forecasting in the Zambezi basin will be developed building largely on already available resources and infrastructure. Focusing on basin-wide cooperation and an integrated approach to flood forecasting and early warning, the 19

23 demonstration project will address the technical, institutional and capacity-building issues related to flood preparedness and early warning, building compatible communication and forecast methodologies, and sharing experiences and lessons learned. 8.2 The approach will include monitoring of climate, weather, and hydrologic behaviour of the rivers; determining the response of the river system to rainfall events by modelling and forecasting of weather events and river response; providing information to decision makers in various sectors at all levels; strengthening coordination among various countries in the basin; disseminating warning information to the affected population at all levels; and working at the community and local levels to reduce the impact of floods. 8.3 The demonstration project will make use of already available observation and forecasting infrastructure, communication mechanisms and strengthen them whenever necessary, i.e. SADC- HYCOS network; Zambezi Action Plan Project 6 (Phase II - ZACPRO 6.2); Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) network; individual country flood forecasting and warning activities. 8.4 The demonstration project will be used to identify gaps and weaknesses in the existing set up and test the concepts to be incorporated in draft strategy. The outcome of the demonstration project will be considered in finalizing the strategy. Lessons learnt from the project will provide a platform for development of comprehensive project proposal on flood forecasting and early warning in the Zambezi River Basin. 8.5 The Demonstration Project will include the following activities: i. Establishment of real/near-real time measuring stations at strategic locations in the Basin; ii. Improvement of data communication mechanism; iii. Harmonization of data measurement and storage methods in the basin; iv. Facilitation of data and information sharing among countries in the Zambezi Basin; v. Formulation of flood preparedness and flood response mechanisms; and vi. Facilitation of collaboration between national institutions engaged in flood preparedness, early warning and response. 8.6 Experts discussed the proposed demonstration project and various issues related to its development and implementation procedures. The participants agreed on specific issues as follow: i. The project is an opportunity to improve the existing flood forecasting and early warning systems in the countries and to establish a base for a basin wide flood forecasting and early warning system for the Zambezi River Basin; ii. The area identified for the Demonstration Project covers the lower Zambezi catchment including the border area between Malawi and Mozambique; iii. The Demonstration Project will be hosted by ARA-Zambeze; iv. WMO will identify a consultant to prepare details of the Demonstration Project; v. Each participating country will assign one expert as a Focal point for the demonstration project to assist and support ARA-Zambeze and WMO s consultant in development and implementing the project activities. All focal points should be part of, and engaged in, the project activities; vi. The demonstration project should make use of the infrastructure developed under SADC-HYCOS project, where feasible; vii. The project should identify gaps in radio coverage in the basin and consider the use of RANET network; viii. The project should be linked with NGOs such as National Red Cross Societies to complement existing government structures in reaching out to the community. 20

24 9. CONCLUSIONS OF THE MEETING 9.1 Regional consensus on development of a flood forecasting and early warning system for the Zambezi basin based on a strategy was achieved. The process for confidence building among countries in the Zambezi Basin for real-time sharing of flood information was initiated. 9.2 The technical, institutional and capacity-building issues in each country, related to implementation of the Strategy in the Zambezi River Basin were identified. They would be further elaborated during country consultation. 9.3 A road map for activities to be implemented under the project until December 2010 (and tentatively up to 2012) was established, as outlined in section 10 below. The necessity for a demonstration project was agreed upon. 9.4 Elements of the Demonstration Project were discussed. An area for the Demonstration Project was identified and regional hydrological centre (ARA-Zambeze) was designated to support the implementation and host the project. 9.5 There was a concern on non participation of Angola and Tanzania in the meeting. WMO will take necessary action to encourage Angola to participate actively in the project. It was also agreed that Tanzania will be invited to participate in the project. 9.6 The meeting provided a good opportunity for relevant partners to exchange information on the current activities related to flood forecasting and early warning in the Zambezi Basin. 9.7 The SARFFG, which will form part of the SWFDP early warning system for Southern Africa, should complement the Zambezi Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System. 10. WAY FORWARD 10.1 In order to ensure successful implementation of the project and to achieve its objectives, participants agreed on a framework for the way forward for the development and implementation of the Zambezi Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning project. The agreed activities for each component of the project are summarized below: A. Regional Consultation Meeting 1) The Draft Report of the Regional Consultation Meeting, (1-3 December 2009), will be circulated to all participants for comments. (WMO-30 December 2009) 2) Comments on the Draft Report will be forwarded to WMO within one week. WMO will incorporate all comments received and will finalize and circulate the final report with a CD containing all presentations. (WMO-15 January 2010) 3) WMO will communicate with countries in the Zambezi Basin to seek commitment to the project and identify focal points. The letter will be addressed to the country Permanent Representative with WMO (PRs) with copy to the Hydrological Advisor to the PR in the country and the country mission in Geneva. (WMO-15 January 2010) B. National Consultations 4) Countries will identify their focal point/coordinator/expert to assist and support the international consultant during his visit to the country, organize the national stakeholder workshops and provide his country contribution to the draft Strategy at various stapes. Their names will be forwarded to WMO. (Countries 25 January 2010) 21

25 5) WMO will provide guidelines to national experts to assist them in preparing their country reports as an input to the draft strategy. (WMO 31 January 2010) 6) WMO and USAID/OFDA will prepare TOR for country consultations to specify requirements and scope of National Consultations and prepare draft schedule of visits in consultation with respective focal points. (WMO & USAID/OFDA 31 January 2010) 7) Participating countries, WMO and USAID will agree on a schedule for National Consultations. (All 10 February 2010) 8) WMO and USAID will support National Consultations to identify and incorporate national needs through organization of National Workshops and gathering information from various services. (All April - July 2010) 9) The Focal Points /Experts in the participating countries will prepare and submit Country Reports, as input to Basin Strategy. (Countries August - September 2010) C. Flood forecasting and Early Warning Strategy 10) The Zambezi Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Strategy Document (first draft) is available and circulated to countries for comments (WMO December 2010) 11) Countries to provide their comments to WMO on the first draft.(countries - March 2011) 12) WMO incorporate comments received and circulate to countries the second draft of the strategy for comments. (WMO - June 2011) 13) Countries to provide their comments to WMO on the second draft. (Countries-September 2011) 14) WMO incorporate comments received and circulate to countries the Final draft of the strategy for discussion at Regional Workshop (WMO - November 2011) 15) Regional workshop to discuss and finalize the draft strategy. (WMO-USAID/OFAD - December 2011) 16) The Zambezi Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Strategy Document are available. Demonstration project is operational. (WMO-USAID/OFAD) (March 2012) D. Demonstration Project 17) It was agreed that, the Planning of demonstration project should begin in January 2010 with a goal of starting operation no later than October 2010 and to be completed by March Detailed plan of implementation will be developed and discussed between WMO, USAID/OFDA and countries. (WMO January 2010) 18) An appropriate monitoring and evaluation process to measure progress and make necessary adjustment in the implementation plan will be developed. WMO in close collaboration with participating countries will prepare specific criteria for the monitoring and evaluation exercise. (WMO January- February 2010) E. Basin-wide High Level Meeting 19) A Regional High Level Meeting to review and agree on the Final Draft Basin Strategy will be organized by WMO in collaboration with participating countries. (WMO -USAID/OFAD - Countries December 2011) 22

26 20) The outcome of the High level meeting will be incorporated in the draft strategy and a Final version will be prepared. The report of the High level Basin wide meeting will be circulated with the Final FFEW Strategy document to countries for implementation. (WMO February 2012) 23

27 PROCEEDINGS OF THE REGIONAL MEETING ON WMO INFORMATION SYSTEM (WIS) & WMO INTEGRATED GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEMS (WIGOS) PILOT PROJECT 4 th DECEMBER 2009 A. INTRODUCTION 1. The WMO Congress (Resolution 20, Cg-XV) requested the president of the Commission of Hydrology (CHy) to arrange for contributions from the commission to other WMO Programmes, in areas such as development of the Integrated Global Observation System (IGOS), Quality Management Framework (QMF) and WMO Information System (WIS) as appropriate, while at the same time presenting the requirements of the hydrological community to those programmes. 2. In February 2009, The CHy Advisory Working Group (AWG) recommended that the SADC- HYCOS and the SARFFG be integrated as pilot project under WIGOS/WIS and decided to organize an expert meeting to work out the details of the pilot project in Realizing the fact that many experts from SADC-HYCOS and RSAFFG were invited to participate in the Regional consultation meeting for developing the FFEW Strategy for the Zambezi basin the 4 th day of the FFEW for the Zambezi meeting was devoted to the development of WIS/WIGOS Pilot Project and to identify potential contribution from other major projects in the region including SADC-HYCOS and Southern Africa Region Flash Floods Guidance System. B. WMO INFORMATION SYSTEM (WIS) 4. A presentation on WMO Information System (WIS) was made by Mr. Eliot Christian from WMO. The WMO mission includes facilitating scientific understanding, and the comprehensive exchange of information world wide. Data is collected and exchanged around the clock by WMO Members from sixteen satellites, one hundred moored buoys, six hundred drifting buoys, three thousand aircraft, seven thousand ships, and ten thousand land-based stations. From the beginning of WMO, timely data exchange has been crucial. Operators have been routing data messages over dedicated lines using systems dedicated to WMO. This is the WMO Global Telecommunication System (GTS). Now WMO is taking a step beyond managing data messages. In committing to WIS, WMO has moved to an overarching approach based on managing the data and information. 5. In 2003, WMO Members decided that WIS will use international industry standards for protocols, hardware and software; build on the existing WMO GTS, with special attention to a smooth and coordinated transition; provide time-critical data exchange, as well as data access and retrieval services; and support all WMO and related international programmes. 6. WMO Member countries will implement and operate WIS using existing centers with some additional or modified capabilities. In operational terms, WIS encompasses three types of centers: Global Information System Centers (GISCs), Data Collection or Production Centers (DCPCs) and National Centre (NCs). Existing National Meteorological and Hydrological Centres become WIS NCs. Existing centers within WMO Member States may apply for designation as one of the three types of WIS Centers. WMO's GTS is part of WIS. 24

28 7. Mr. Christian, briefed participants on the potential in put to WIS from WMO s programmes. He presented various technical programmes including, World Weather Watch Global Observing System (WWW), Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), World Climate Program (WCP), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) and World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS). He also informed participants about the benefits of being part of WIS C. WMO INTEGRATED GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEMS (WIGOS) 8. Mr. Eliot Christian from WMO made another presentation on WMO Integrated Global Observing Systems (WIGOS). The WIGOS vision is to achieve an integrated, comprehensive and coordinated observing system to satisfy in a cost-effective and sustained manner, the evolving observing requirements of WMO Members and to enhance coordination of WMO observing systems with those of WMO partner organizations for the benefit of society. 9. Some driving issues that led WMO to propose WIGOS are: 1) Policy and decision makers need quality advice at a reasonable cost; 2) Increased awareness of Earth as an integrated system; and 3) Greater vulnerability of society to extreme weather events and climate change. 10. The objectives of WIGOS are: i) To enable the evolution and integration of WMO observing systems and enhance collaboration with WMO partner organizations; ii) To better enable WMO Members to meet expanding national mandates and achieve higher national visibility with other environment related agencies. Also, WIGOS together with WIS will greatly enhance operational components of WMO Programs, especially in Developing and Least Developed Countries; and iii) To provide a mechanism for enhanced integration between its surface and space based components. 11. The benefits from WIGOS should be expected through: Improved quality, traceability and consistency of observations for better products and services; Improved access to observations, both real-time and non-real-time; Optimization of observing network design and flexibility to incorporate new observing systems; Improved coordination, standardization and evaluation of national observing networks by NMHSs; and Improved data assimilation techniques to allow better exploitation of observations in Numerical Weather Prediction models (NWPs) in an integrated manner. 12. WIGOS will build upon the existing observing components of WWW GOS, GAW, and WHYCOS. It will capitalize on existing and new and emerging technologies. It will improve access to and utilization of surface-based observations and products from co-sponsored systems such as GTOS, GOOS and GCOS through enhanced coordination. It will work to enhance integration between its surface- and space-based components. It will also provide a mechanism to meet new observational requirements of its Members. 13. WIGOS will be involved with standardization in three areas: Instruments and methods of observation; WIS information infrastructure; and End-product quality assurance. WIGOS is proposed to be realized in two phases. Phase 1 is the Development and Implementation Phase. This could also be described as the "Project Phase". Phase 2 will be an Operational Phase. Here, WIGOS would become an ongoing programme for decades to come. 14. WIGOS Pilot Projects are overseen by WMO Technical Commissions. They are designed to explore WIGOS concepts as they might be applied in actual systems. They are AMDAR, JCOMM ODP, GAW WDC, WHYCOS, CIMO, GSICS, and GRUAN. 15. WIGOS Demonstration Projects are overseen by WMO at the Regional or Member level. Activities exploring WIGOS concepts are underway now in Kenya, Morocco, Russia, 25

29 Australia, Brazil, Korea, and the United States. There is also a WIGOS demonstration project underway at the regional level in RA VI, Europe. D. DEVELOPMENT OF WIGOS/WIS PILOT PROJECT IN THE REGION (HYDROLOGICAL COMPONENT) 16. Dr Antônio Cardoso Neto, CHy-AWG member responsible for WHYCOS/WIGOS/WIS, made a presentation on Commission of Hydrology (CHy) contribution to WIS. He informed participants that the Advisory Working Group of the CHy identified in February 2009 SADC- HYCOS and SARFFG projects as pilot projects to be integrated in WIS. He presented the objectives of SADC-HYCOS and the potential contribution from SADC-HYCOS to WIS, he also highlighted benefits to be gained by countries from participating in WIS. 17. Another detailed technical presentation on SADC- HYCOS was made by M. Musariri, Project Management Unit. He presented all the technical issues related to the project including data collection, format, processing and disseminating. E. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 18. Based on the technical presentations, experts from NMSs, NHSs and DMA from six countries in the Zambezi Basin and other regional experts discussed integrating SADC- HYCOS in WIS and development of Pilot Project. Following moderated discussion, participants agreed on WMO proposal to develop WIGOS/WIS pilot project in the region. In this regard they supported CHy-AWG proposal to use SADC-HYCOS and SARFFG projects as pilot project. 19. Participants noted that benefits of WIS are: 1) It enhances the collection of critical data needed to monitor and predict aspects of the environment, including hazards; 2) It catalogs the full range of data and products, simplifying search and assuring equitable access per WMO policies; 3) It enhances the availability of time-critical data and products at centres in all nations, ensuring the effective provision of services to their populations and economies; 4) It opens up GTS to other types of environmental data so that all programmes have stronger infrastructure support; and 5) It exploits opportunities as they become available with technology innovation. 20. Participants requested the CHy AWG to develop the pilot project considering specific issues as indicated below: a) Data links among participating centers should be identified. b) Standardization (equipment, unite measurements, data format, data processing, data transmission). c) There is a need to enhance discovery and access of existing Zambezi Water Information System (ZAMWIS) to prevent duplication if applicable. d) FFGS products which are time sensitive can be part of WIS and it should be distributed to NMHSs for further dissemination. e) Exchange experiences to improve communication and dissemination of data and information. f) The language interface is to be considered. 21. Participants requested the AWG member responsible for WIGOS/WIS to keep them informed with development and implementation progress. 26

30 Annex I BOTSWANA Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System WMO Information System (WIS) and WIGOS Pilot Project REGIONAL CONSULTATION MEETING Maputo, Mozambique, 1-5 December LIST OF PARTICIPANTS Mr Kalaote Kalaote Tel: Hydrological Adviser Fax: Department of Water Affairs kkalaote@gov.bw Private Bag 0029 GABORONE BRAZIL Dr Antônio Cardoso neto Tel: Agência Nacional de Aguas Mobile: SPO, Area 5, Cuadra 3, Bloco L cardoso@ana.gov.br BRASILIA-DF MALAWI Mr Winston Chimwaza Tel: Meteorological Headquarters Mobile: National Meteorological Centre Fax: P.O. Box metdep@metmalawi.com BLANTYRE Mr Hyde Sibande Tel: Ministry of Irrigation & Water Development Mobile: Tikwere House, City Centre hydesibande@malawi.net Private Bag 390 hydesibande@yahoo.co.uk LILONGWE 3 MOZAMBIQUE Mr Moisés Benessene Tel: National Director of Meteorology & Mobile: Permanent Representative of Mozambique Fax: with WMO moises_b@inam.gov.mz Rua Mukumbura, 164 P.O. Box 256 MAPUTO 27