The Age of Sustainable Development

Transcription

1 The Age of Sustainable Development Chapter 1: What is Sustainable Development? A. Sustainable Development as an Analytical and Normative Concept SD is the central concept of our age. SD is a way to understand the world and a method for solving problems. 3. SDGs 2030 will guide the world s economic diplomacy billion people in 2014 and there were approximately 8oo million at the start of the Industrial Revolution in The world is divided into basically three economic categories 6. World s economy (GWP) is growing at 3-4%/year it is unequal & damaging to the environment. 7. World s economy (GWP) is 90 trillion/year 200X larger than in World s economy depends on the environmental services of the world. 9. Environmental threats include: climate change, fresh water, ocean s chemistry, habitat destruction, key processes such as the water, nitrogen, and carbon cycles are being disrupted and altered. 10. Rate of change is unprecedented and unpredictable. 1 SD is the interaction of the world economy, global society, and Earth s physical environment. 1 How does the world s economy of 7.2 billion people with 90 trillion of output change over time? What causes economic growth? Why does poverty persist? 13. Normative approach (ethical) recommends a set of goals to which the world should aspire to. 14. SDS adopted to guide the future course of economic and social development. 15. Economic growth should be widespread Extreme poverty eliminated strengthen communities protect the environment form human induced degredation. 16. SDGs is a holistic framework for economic, social, and environmental goals. 17. SDGs is a call for socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable economic growth. 18. All of this needs good governance which works to: provide health care and education for all, maintain and expand good infrastructure, provide safety for its citizens, support science and new technologies, and institute regulations to protect the environment. 19. Governments need the cooperation of multinational corporations. 20. Normative side of good governance includes the following: economic prosperity for all, social inclusion and cohesion, environmental sustainability, and good governance. 2 It takes good governance, business, organizations, and individuals to succeed. 2 History of SD started with the concept of maximum sustainable yield UN Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden.

2 24. Limits to Growth and the Club of Rome World Conservation Strategy: Living Resource Conservation for Sustainable Development. 26. Adopted and popularized the Brandtaland definition , Rio Earth Summit: Development today must not threaten the needs of future generations. 28. The Intergenerational concept evolved into the holistic concept, which includes economic development, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability , UN World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, South Africa. 30. Rio + 20 summit (the future we want) B. Embracing Complexity Science of complex systems System is a group of interacting components that together with the rules for their interaction constitute an interconnected whole. 3. A system is more than the sum of its parts. 4. Responses are often non-linear. 5. Small changes may have cascading consequences. 6. Chain reaction of a positive feedback loop process can have explosive consequences. 7. SD involves four complex interacting systems. 8. Global Economy spans nearly every part of the world, Social Interactions of trust, ethics, inequality, and social support networks in communications (including new global online communications technologies, ICTs), change to Earth Systems such as climate and ecosystems, and problems of Good Governance. 9. In each of these systems the special properties of complex systems, such as emergent behavior and strong, nonlinear dynamics (boom & busts), are evident. 10. Complex systems require complex thinking for example poverty in the midst of plenty 1 Skilled SD practitioner needs to be a complex-systems expert C. The Role of Technological Change Maglev (high speed rail in China 200 mph+ Example of how new technology can help lead us to SD 3. There are 3 aspects to technological advances with SD - Technological advances are the main driver of economic growth - World economy took off in 1750 (steam engine, steam powered transportation, internal combustion engine, electrification, industrial chemistry, scientific agronomy, aviation, nuclear power, and ICTs). - Technological advances have had side effects (fossil fuels etc.) 4. Humans guide technological advances (luck, accident, or guided by the market?) Can technological advances be guided to aid humans (deliberate, goal-based interaction of public and private R&D efforts). 5. Governments guide technology for reasons of state military purposes.

3 - WWI: aviation, chemical weapons, WWII: computers, radar, semiconductors, nuclear energy. 6. We need governments to help develop new technologies for sustainable energy, transport, construction, food production, health delivery, education, etc 7. Policy can drive innovation in a targeted way including public funding of R&D, direct research in public laboratories, regulations, prizes for new inventions, modifications of patent laws, etc. D. Sustainable Development as a Normative Approach SD is a way to understand the highly complex integrated world (economics, societies, environments, and political systems). Normative approach encourages us to have a holistic view of what a society should be like. 3. People care about average income and distribution too. 4. Five concerns regarding distribution of well-being are: - Extreme poverty - Why is there poverty in the midst of plenty? - Inequality - How large is the gap between rich and poor? - Social mobility - What are the barriers to advancement? - Discrimination - Are certain groups disadvantaged by their identity? - Social cohesion Is there cultural conflict and no shared moral code? 5. The above five concerns are addressed by the term Social Inclusion. 6. Environmental Stewardship is another basic ethical concern. 7. Good Governance is critical too! Corruption, lawlessness, untrustworthy politicians, unfair government services, significant discrimination, insider dealing, etc. is unethical. 8. From an ethical perspective a good society is economically prosperous, socially inclusive, environmentally sustainable, and well-governed. 9. How do we take our knowledge of the interconnected world to create an ethical and sustainable society? E. Trade-offs Versus Synergies in Economic, Social, and Environmental Goals Are there important trade-offs in the pursuit of a sustainable society? Do we grow the pie or divide the pie more equally? 3. Do we have to choose between jobs and the environment? 4. Efficiency the absence of waste in a society. Can we raise one person s income without lowering another s income? 5. Equity means fairness in the division of the pie. 6. Classic trade-off is the argument regarding raising taxes on the wealthy to give to social programs. Does this make for more inefficiencies? 7. Investment in health and education??? 8. Investment in a cleaner environment??? 9. Can we invest in these synergies rather than trade-offs? Questions:

4 3. Inferences: II. An Introduction to Economic Growth A. Measuring the Size of the Economy GDP measures the market value of total production within a country. Size of pie Per capita GDP is divided by the total population. Pieces of the pie 3. Household income is always distributed unevenly 4. Per capita closely correlated to other measures of development 5. Measures evolved from GNP to GDP 6. There are issues when comparing countries due differences in currency 7. GDP/PPP purchasing power 8. Does not measure the informal economy 9. GDP does not measure the bads or harms (pollution etc.) B. Defining Economic Growth What is Economic growth mean? GDP change over time 3. GDP per capita at constant international prices 4. GDP/per capita is far from a perfect measure of wellbeing. 5. GWP/world population rising percent per year 7. Rule of 70 = growth rate dived by 70 = how many years it take for the economy to double 8. World s economy growing consistently since the Industrial Revolution 9. Average growth rate since 1820 = 1/1%/year = 1/5% onward = the age of modern economic growth focus of the book 1 Industrial Revolution started in Britain 1 Traditionally how did most people live for human history? = early Industrial Revolution = later Industrial Revolution 15. Post 1950 associated with the rise of services, technology, etc.

5 16. World s population reached 1 billion around 1820 J curve billion by 2040? 18. GWP =GWP per capita x world population C. The Recent Growth of China Since 1978 the fastest growing economy in world history (10%/year) Deng Xiaoping put forth market reforms and encouraged international trade 3. Economy doubled 5X or increased 32X, since Per capita income increased 9% /year or increased 18X, Case study of economic growth (Shenzhen) population increased from 30,000 to 12 million 6. Massive population growth in Eastern China million internal and interregional migration to the eastern seaboard of China 8. China has become the world s largest trading country 9. Agriculture industry services & rural urban 10. Decreases in TFR, CMR with increases in education, life expectancy, public health 1 China produces more PhDs than any country 1 Downside to this economic miracle - Major cultural disruptions - Inequality of income has soared - Environment world s largest polluter D. Improvements in Global Health Global growth in GWP/capita = increases in public health and food security The above has been accompanied by advances in health technologies (antibiotics, vaccinations, diagnostics, improvements in surgery) and improved water supplies, sewerage, and household sanitation 3. IMR had declined from 134/1000 to 37/1000 today 4. However, today many die from preventable diseases such malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhea 5. Life Expectancy at birth has increased from 47 in to 71 today and 80+ in MDCs 6. First pillar of SD prosperity through economic development is possible on a global scale 7. Increase in GDP/per person comes with structural changes in geography and economics 8. Economic growth isn t the only answer must combine with social inclusion and environmental sustainability 9. Increases in economic prosperity in the short run can have negative consequences in the long run followed by social instability and environmental catastrophes Questions: 3. Inferences:

6 2 10. Rural vs urban poverty unable to secure basic services and needs 1 Extreme poverty is multidimensional 1 Poverty = lack of income 13. Extreme Poverty= inability to meet basic human needs for food, water, sanitation, safe energy, education, and a livelihood 14. Life is a daily struggle for dignity and survival billion in extreme poverty? 16. Percent of total is declining depends on definition and data 17. Rural/urban ration 60: The geography of extreme poverty? 19. Pockets of poverty, e.g. Brazil 20. What is the relationship to the IMR? 2 Success of SD Community Health Workers (CHWs) 2 Impact of geography, but is it destiny? 23. Farm production, diseases, cost of trade, access to energy, etc. III. Continuing Poverty in the Midst of Plenty Rural vs urban poverty unable to secure basic services and needs Extreme poverty is multidimensional 3. Poverty= lack of income 4. Extreme Poverty= inability to meet basic human needs for food, water, sanitation, safe energy, education, and a livelihood 5. Life is a daily struggle for dignity and survival 6. 1 billion in extreme poverty? 7. Percent of total is declining depends on definition and data 8. Rural/urban ration 60:40 9. The geography of extreme poverty? 10. Pockets of poverty, e.g. Brazil 1What is the relationship to the IMR? 1 Success of SD Community Health Workers (CHWs) 13. Impact of geography, but is it destiny? 14. Farm production, diseases, cost of trade, access to energy, etc. Questions:

7 3. Inferences: IV. Global Environmental Threats Caused by Economic Development Humanity is a threat to its own future wellbeing and perhaps its survival! Annual world economic output is 100X larger than at the start of the IR sea level is 1/3 meter higher than a century ago along the U.S. eastern seaboard 4. Increase in severity of weather events starting to impact global assembly line and JIT manufacturing 5. Hydrometerological Disasters (water and weather related) are getting more frequent and intense 6. Anthropocene (human epoch/era) 7. Need to understand climate, chemistry, and biology 8. Humans are driving the changes 9. SD requires a deep understanding of these human induced changes 10. Main causes = fossil fuel burning (coal, oil, natural gas, etc.) 1 Increase in carbon dioxide has become a positive feedback loop 1 Why worry? location of cities, food production, etc. 13. Systems impacted include: fresh water, chemical fertilizers, ocean chemistry, deforestation, industrial pollution 14. What are the planetary boundaries? - Biodiversity loss (5) - Nitrogen cycle (5) - Climate change (3) - Phosphorus cycle (8) - Ocean acidification (5) - Change in land use (2) - Global fresh water use (1) - Ozone depletion (0) - Aerosol loading not yet quantified - Chemical pollution not yet quantified V. Pathways to Sustainable Development

8 Analytical Approach the linkages between economy, society, environment, and politics Normative Approach do something about the dangers we face to implement SDGs and to Achieve them 3. Find a global path must incorporate a variety of scales working in unison 4.Need for good governance both governments and businesses - depends on rule of law, accountability, transparency, responsiveness, and engagement 5. Will use comparisons throughout the book - Business as Usual (BAU) -Alternative Path (SD) 6. Is SD more expensive in the short run? 7. Essence of SD is scientifically and morally based problem solving 8. Book aims to contribute to this problem solving dynamic! Questions: 3. Inferences: