2015 Electric Resource Plan 3rd Public Meeting

Transcription

1 2015 Electric Resource Plan 3rd Public Meeting August 6,

2 Introduction and Housekeeping WELCOME to Tri-State Keep to schedule Cell phones on silent Location of facilities Webcast Use microphone for questions One person speaking at a time Questions 2

3 Today s Agenda 2015 ERP/IRP Timeline Modeling Issues 2015 ERP Scenario Results 100MW Coal Retirement Case 300MW Coal Retirement Case High EE/DSM Case PTC/ITC Extension with Low Cost Renewables Case High Commodity Prices and High Load Case High Behind the Meter DG with Energy Storage Case Transmission Cost Update Participant Feedback Tri-State Summary Questions? 3

4 Tri-State 2015 ERP/IRP Timeline 4

5 2015 ERP/IRP Timeline WAPA IRP deadline is Feb

6 Planned Public Meeting Schedule 4th Meeting: Tues., Sept. 8 9 a.m. - Noon Tri-State will present the final results of its evaluation and the various resource scenarios it modeled during the public participation process. Tri-State will discuss the components of the draft action plan. 6

7 Modeling Issues 7

8 Modeling Issues Load Forecast Coal Retirements Intermittent Resource Integration Rooftop Solar and Battery Storage Scenario 8

9 2015 Load Forecast Annual Energy 9

10 2015 Load Forecast Summer Peak Demand 10

11 Coal Unit Retirement Analysis Modeled in System Optimizer $350/KW decommissioning costs Replacement Resources: Wind and Gas More Expensive CapEx and Operating Costs Unlikely to be selected in the absence of other effects Future CapEx for Coal Planned, approved projects Joint-Owned Unit Effects Actual retirement decisions based on detailed, casespecific information San Juan 3 example 11

12 Intermittent Resource Integration Scenario economics favor wind over solar Scenarios show the addition of 700 to 1300 MW of additional wind Existing models provide hourly detail and likely will mask sub-hourly ramping constraints Ramping problems may be addressed by market structures and/or technology 12

13 Rooftop Solar and Battery Storage Scenario Assumptions Assumed 20% of Tri-State s retail customers (approx. 90,000) leave the system and go off-grid with rooftop solar and battery storage The CAPEX of implementing this retail option was assumed to not be borne by Tri-State, so overall customer costs are not captured in the analysis No Tri-State standby obligation 13

14 Scenario Modeling Modeling is a complex exercise and provides necessary insight into alternative future situations. Modeling can inform future decision-making, but is not dispositive. Business decisions can be based on information and policies that are not evident in resource planning models. A primary goal is to establish a viable and credible modeling process. Models are based on best available information they are still snapshots and subject to change. Modeling untenable or incredible boundary cases or alternative scenarios is not worthwhile. Modeling is an iterative process. 14

15 Scenario Results Update 15

16 Scenario Update Previously we modeled three(3) BAU scenarios; BAU Base Case BAU Low Load Case BAU High Load Case Have updated these scenarios to include transmission CAPEX 16

17 Scenario Update For this 3rd public meeting we analyzed an additional six(6) scenarios; 100MW Coal Retirement 300MW Coal Retirement High EE/DSM PTC/ITC Extension with Low Cost Renewables High Commodity Prices and High Load Behind the Meter Solar DG with Energy Storage 17

18 Scenario Update These additional six(6) scenarios adequately bookend various resource, commodity price and strategic uncertainties Tri-State faces going forward; Future coal retirements due to various new environmental costs Higher EE and lower per household energy intensity Lower cost renewables with the PTC/ITC extensions High commodity prices Residential customers leaving the grid with solar DG and battery storage 18

19 BAU Scenarios BAU represents the current commodity and resource landscape 2014 load forecast San Juan 3 retiring Dec Compliance RPS (20% in CO, 10% in NM) Historical EE/DSM Open Markets Updated coal and natural gas prices Updated TAGWeb Capex values Transmission costs; BAU Base - $1.154B BAU High - $1.765B BAU Low - $1.065B 19

20 BAU Base Generation by Fuel Type 20

21 BAU Base Scenario 700MW of wind (600MW in ECO and 100MW in WY) 1040MW of thermal (520MW 2x1 CC in 2021 and 2034) 21

22 GWh BAU Base Generation by Fuel Type Coal Oil & Gas Renewables Long Term Purchases Market Purchases 22

23 BAU Scenario PVRRs including Transmission (G&T) 23

24 100MW Coal Retirement Scenario 100MW of coal retired from Tri-State coal fleet in 2020 Assumed $35MM in coal retirement costs Compliance RPS (20% in CO, 10% in NM) Historical DSM Open Markets 24

25 100MW Coal Retirement Scenario 25

26 100MW Coal Retirement Scenario 700MW of wind (600MW in ECO and 100MW in WY) 818MW of thermal (488MW 2x1 CC in 2020 and 165MW 7FA SC in 2025 & 2033) 26

27 100MW Coal Retirement Scenario PVRR PVRR (G&T) - $19.69B Transmission CAPEX - $1.32B PVRR is slightly lower than BAU Base Case due to; Distributed 100MW across Tri-State s system which tends to lower the need for more capacity sooner esp. in CO Lumpiness of capacity additions (BAU Base Case builds two large 2x1 CC vs 1 large CC) PVRR and SO expansion plan differences are well within the uncertainty expected for these models esp. with the SO convergence criteria set at 1% 27

28 300MW Coal Retirement Scenario 300MW of coal retired from Tri-State coal fleet in 2020 Assumed $100MM in coal retirement costs Compliance RPS (20% in CO, 10% in NM) Historical DSM Open Markets 28

29 300MW Coal Retirement Scenario 29

30 300MW Coal Retirement Scenario 900MW of wind (600MW in ECO and 300MW in WY) 1148MW of thermal (488MW 2x1 CC in 2020 and 165MW 7FA SC in 2025, 2028 & 2030) 30

31 300MW Coal Retirement Scenario PVRR PVRR (G&T) - $20.24B Transmission CAPEX - $0.981B PVRR is $200M higher than BAU Base Case 31

32 High EE/DSM Scenario Reflects energy efficiency goal of 1.5% in 2020 Linearly increased Tri-State s current energy efficiency forecast from From increased energy efficiency by 1.5% per year. Energy efficiency in 2032 is approx. 10.7% of retail load Energy efficiency costs were estimated based on Tri-State s 2014 actual energy efficiency program costs extrapolated to meet the higher goals Total energy efficiency CAPEX is estimated to be $1.09B These costs are assumed to be borne by Tri-State and are recovered from its member coops thru wholesale rates Compliance RPS (20% in CO, 10% in NM) Open Markets 32

33 High EE/DSM Scenario Costs $140,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $120,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $100,000,000 $800,000,000 $80,000,000 $600,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $400,000,000 $20,000,000 $200,000,000 $- $- Annual EE Costs Total EE Costs 33

34 High EE/DSM Scenario 34

35 High EE/DSM Scenario 700MW of wind (600MW in ECO and 100MW in NM) 520MW of thermal (520MW 2x1 CC in 2028) 35

36 High EE/DSM Scenario PVRR PVRR (G&T) - $19.31B Transmission CAPEX - $0.936B Significant CAPEX to meet energy efficiency goals from

37 PTC/ITC Extension w/ Low Cost Renewables Scenario Extension starts 2016 thru 2035 PPAs for new renewables No Tri-State capital Compliance RPS (20% in CO, 10% in NM) Open Markets 37

38 PTC/ITC Extension w/ Low Cost Renewables Scenario 38

39 PTC/ITC Extension w/ Low Cost Renewables Scenario 1200MW of wind (700MW in ECO, 300MW in WY and 200MW in NM) 1015MW of thermal (165MW 7FA SC in 2023, 2025 & 2031 and 520MW 2x1 CC in 2028) 39

40 PTC/ITC Extension w/ Low Cost Renewables Scenario PVRR PVRR (G&T) - $19.60B Transmission CAPEX - $1.02B 1200MW of wind PPAs PaR models generation and load on a hourly basis and does not consider sub-hourly ramping issues which can be critical as more variable resources are put on Tri-State s system Further analysis would be required to ensure >1000MW of renewable resources can be reliably integrated into Tri-State s system 40

41 High Commodity Prices and High Load Scenario 2014 high commodity price forecast which includes a carbon adder starting in 2020 Compliance RPS (20% in CO, 10% in NM) Open Markets 41

42 High Commodity Prices and High Load Scenario Thermal Wind 42

43 High Commodity Prices and High Load Scenario 1600MW of wind (700MW in ECO, 500MW in WY and 400MW in NM) 1844MW of thermal (678MW 2x1 CC in 2020, 488MW 2x1 CC in 2025 and 678MW 2x1 CC in 2034) 43

44 High Commodity Prices and High Load Scenario PVRR PVRR (G&T) - $25.50B Transmission CAPEX - $1.43B 44

45 High BTM DG with Energy Storage Scenario 20% of Tri-State s retail customers (approx. 90,000) leave the system and go off-grid with DG solar and battery storage The capital costs to implement the solar DG with battery storage are not included in this analysis. Costs can be significant. Compliance RPS (20% in CO, 10% in NM) Open Markets 45

46 High BTM DG with Energy Storage Scenario 46

47 High BTM DG with Energy Storage Scenario 400MW of wind in ECO 685MW of thermal (520MW 2x1 CC in 2026 and 165MW 7FA SC in 2035) 47

48 High BTM DG with Energy Storage Scenario PVRR PVRR (G&T) - $18.84B Transmission CAPEX - $1.018B Does not include capital costs associated with solar DG and battery storage 48

49 PVRR By Scenario 49

50 Transmission Cost Update 50

51 Transmission Cost Update Transmission CAPEX is estimated by Tri-State s Transmission Planning Department Transmissions CAPEX is based on many factors including; New or upgraded transmission lines New or upgraded substations Location of capacity expansion Size of capacity expansion Utilization of existing transmission system Transmissions CAPEX ranged from $0.9B to $1.43B for the nine(9) ERP scenarios 51

52 Participant Feedback 52

53 Tri-State Summary 53

54 Next Steps Document all inputs and questions Start drafting Action Plan and 2015 ERP report ensuring all 21 CPUC requirements are addressed At 4 th public meeting on Sept. 8 th, present complete results of all scenarios and a draft Action Plan for public review and comment 54

55 Public Input and Questions? Comments and questions regarding resource plan or process: Contacts F. Michael Salva (303) Sarah Carlisle (303)

56 Questions? 56

57 57