Hiroux, Céline ADIS/GRJM Université Paris XI Roques, Fabien - CERA Saguan, Marcelo RSCAS-EUI Mestre, Olivier MeteoFrance Libonetti, Sebastian - GRJM

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1 Hiroux, Céline ADIS/GRJM Université Paris XI Roques, Fabien - CERA Saguan, Marcelo RSCAS-EUI Mestre, Olivier MeteoFrance Libonetti, Sebastian - GRJM CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRENCH WIND RESOURCE LONG TERM PATTERNS & RELATIONSHIP TO ELECTRICITY DEMAND

2 Context Large-scale wind energy in Europe at midterms => 2020 France: «Grenelle de l environnement» => Huge objectives of wind development MW in 2020 France is well-known for its excellent wind resource (different kinds of wind speed) with large coastal opportunities BUT Still a low development : only 3400 MW at the end of 2008 and by now about 4100MW are operated Big reluctance to the need to develop wind energy in France: Summer 08 => big debate on the place and role of WP in France =>a study (Le Biez, 2008) argued that France does not need wind energy. Few months later, the «Renewable Energy association» published a «Answer to this study». This reluctance could be strenghened by the paradox that «more wind farms where less wind speed»

3 French paradox

4 Outline Data sources and modelling Characteristics of France wind resources Inter-annual variability Monthly variability Diurnal variability Geographic diversity Relationship to electricity demand Conclusions and perspectives

5 1. Data sources and modelling Hourly surface wind speed recorded by MeteoFrance for 28 years of data and 118 sites => 81 sites used to model the wind power output Selected on: length and completenss of the hourly wind speed register Sites categorized by departments and regions Data updated depending on the turbine hub height Converted for a nordex N90 wind turbine Results => Capacity factor for 24h, 365 days and 28 years for 81 sites

6 Comparison of modeled and observed France CF 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 25% 25% 26% 22% 22% 16% 17% 13% 23% 24% 23% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22% 20% 18% 0% Dataset CF Observed CF (FEE/SER)

7 Inter-annual variability 0,29 Annual France Capacity Factor Long term average capacity factor is 24,7% Capcity Factor- % 0,27 0,25 0,23 0,21 0,19 0,17 0,15 Year

8 Monthly variability 0,35 0,3 0,25 Monthly wind power average Capacity Factor Long term Average Capacity Factor of 24, 7% 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

9 Diurnal variability 0,43 Average daily variability in France wind power Capacity Factor Capcity Factor - % 0,38 0,33 0,28 0,23 0,18 0,13 0,08 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Hour

10 Capacity factors by regions 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 Annual Average Capacity Factor by Region

11 3. Geographic diversity CF correlation 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Wind power output correlation versus distance between France sites Distance between sites

12 Effect of diversification on aggregate output

13 Low wind speed events Number of hours per year Frequency and extent of low wind speed events 20% of hours 30% of hours Percentage of France experiencing low wind speeds

14 High wind speed events Frequency and extent of high wind speed events 1000 Number of hours per year ,1 0,01 0% 2% 3% 5% 6% 8% 9% 11% 13% 14% 16% 17% 19% 20% 22% 23% 25% Percentage of France experiencing high wind speeds 27%

15 4. Wind power output and electricity demand 0,35 Relationship between wind power and electricity demand Capacity Factor 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percentile Rank of demand hour (100% = maximum demand)

16 40,0% Relative Frequency of hours concerned during high electricity demand - 80% to 100% percentile band 20,0% Frequency 18,0% 35,0% Average CF 16,0% 14,0% 30,0% Long term average capacity factor 12,0% 10,0% 25,0% 8,0% 6,0% 20,0% 4,0% 2,0% 15,0% ,0% Hour

17 Conclusions and perspectives Preliminary results on french wind resources Low variability (inter-annual, monthly and diurnal) Smoothing effects Large-scale wind power outage mainly due to low wind speed events but i) no zero wind speed and ii) no outage in France as a whole due to high wind speed events Pretty good relationship between wind power and electricity demand

18 Limits and further works These results are very preliminary => we only refer to Sinden s article (2006) Needs to broaden the scope by doing a more detailed literature review (large bibliography) Needs to pull up policy recommendations from a more global point of view We are applying the MVP (mean-variance Portfolio theory) to define optimal portfolios depending on different scenario (in reference to Roques, Hiroux & Saguan, 2009, Energy Policy)

19 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Dr. Céline HIROUX Fellow Researcher ADIS-GRJM / University Paris XI 27 avenue Lombart F Fontenay-aux-Roses celine.hiroux@u-psud.fr