DEMAND FOR SEAWATER DESALINATION AND POTENTIAL ROLE FOR PTG

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2 DEMAND FOR SEAWATER DESALINATION AND POTENTIAL ROLE FOR PTG Meeting global water demand through seawater desalination powered with renewable energy Dmitrii Bogdanov, Upeksha Caldera and Christian Breyer Neo-Carbon Energy 3 rd Researchers Seminar Espoo,

3 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Further Study Summary 3

4 Motivation - Finite fresh water resource of approximately 200,000 km 3 for all life on Earth - Growing water stress : - Increasing water withdrawals for agriculture, municipal and industry - Climate change and water pollution further accelerate the stress Data Source: Luck, M., M. Landis, F. Gassert Aqueduct Water Stress Projections: Decadal projections of water supply and demand using CMIP5 GCMs. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute 4

5 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Further Study Summary 5

6 Demand for SWRO Desalination SWRO 53% of installed desalination capacity (2011) Only electrical energy MSF and MED use electrical and thermal energy Demand for SWRO is forecasted to grow Energy consumption and cost is still high Growth of cumulative installed desalination technologies Data Source: Fichtner

7 Data Desalination Demand 2030 Data Source: Luck, M., M. Landis, F. Gassert Aqueduct Water Stress Projections: Decadal projections of water supply and demand using CMIP5 GCMs. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute SWRO Desalination used for regions with : High BWS (40-80%) Extra high BWS ( >80%) Desalination demand is a logistics function of the BWS and total water demand 7

8 Data SWRO Cost for ,000 m 3 /day capacity Capex : / (m 3 /hr) Lifetime : 30 years Baseload hours : System optimum Fixed Opex : 848 / (m 3 /hr) Water storage at desalination site Capex : / m 3 Lifetime : 30 years Opex : 1.29 / m 3 Horizontal pumping of water (pumping and piping) Capex : / (km x m 3 /hr ) Energy consumption : 0.04 kwh/ (m 3 /hr) / 100km Vertical pumping of water (pumping and piping) Capex : / (km x m 3 /hr ) Energy consumption : 0.36 kwh/ (m 3 /hr) / 100m 8

9 Data SWRO Energy Consumption ( kwh/m 3 ) Increases with salinity Energy recovery devices Hydraulic turbine Data Source: Al-Zahrani, A.,Orfi, J., Al-Suhaibani, Z., Salim, B., Al-Ansary,H., Thermodynamic Analysis of a Reverse Osmosis Desalination Unit with Energy Recovery System 9

10 Data Hybrid PV-Wind Power Plant Cost for 2030 PV 1-axis tracking plants Capex : 620 /kw PV fixed-tilted plants Capex : 550 /kw Wind plants Capex : 1000 /kw FLH : location specific Battery Capex : 150 /kwh Water electrolysis Capex : 380 /kw CO 2 scrubbing Capex : 356 /kw Methanation Capex : 234 /kw Power transmitted to desalination plants via HVDC cables 10

11 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Further Study Summary 11

12 Results Levelized Cost of Electricity Cost Year 2030 LCOE for total system (generation plus storage) /kwh, mainly /kwh least cost solution leads to 82% of energy generated by PV (thereof 70% by 1-axis tracking) battery and PtG storage reduce excess energy and LCOE 12

13 Results Levelized Cost of Water Cost Year Water Production and Transport 13 - Current fossil fuel powered SWRO plant water production costs 0.60 /m /m 3 excluding transportation costs annualized costs globally 1228 bn for the total system including everything total Capex for global system 9789 bn

14 Results Ratio of Pumping Electricity Cost to the LCOW Cost Year Pumping electricity cost In Central Asia, contributes up to 40% of the LCOW Distance and elevation are key factors (rule of thumb: energy for 100 km of horizontal pumping equals 100 m of vertical pumping) 14

15 Results PtG storage benefits reduction in LCOW cost year total global cost reduction due to the use of PtG (about 300 GW e capacity) average global LCOW, annualized costs and global Capex reduced by 10% PtG reduces the capacities by about 30% (PV), 14% (wind) and 33% (batteries) - total excess of electricity is reduced by 84% GW th PtG capacities equals Capex of 359 bn, annualised cost of 43 bn

16 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Further Study Summary 16

17 Further study: more flexibility in the system Growth of cumulative installed desalination technologies Data Source: Fichtner 2011 Data Source: Luck, M., M. Landis, F. Gassert Aqueduct Water Stress Projections: Decadal projections of water supply and demand using CMIP5 GCMs. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute New options: more flexibility to the system new storage option (water) demand could be significant in future desalination can be included in simulation runs 17

18 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Further Study Summary 18

19 Summary aim of this work is to meet the global water demand through desalination powered by PV-Wind hybrid power plants global water demand is increasing whilst the renewable water resource is diminishing SWRO desalination is forecasted to grow as an alternative to augment the fresh water supply model assumes that SWRO, powered by hybrid PV-Wind, batteries, PtG, is used to meet the water demand in regions of high baseline water stress annualized cost for the global system is 1228 bn (7% WACC) with the total Capex being 9789 bn. Resulting LCOW is competitive with that of current fossil powered SWRO desalination plants. The current water production costs range from 0.60 /m /m 3. Use of PtG enables an overall reduction in the LCOW and annualized costs by 10%, created by reduced generation and battery capacities and a PtG capex of 359 bn 19

20 NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategy research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre.

21 Summary SWRO powered by PV-Wind Hybrid (an overview of all data and assumptions) SWRO Desalination Plant [2, 5, 7, 8] Capacity: 20,000 m 3 /day Capex : /(m 3 / hr) Fixed Opex : 848 /(m 3 / hr) FLH: System optimum Lifetime : 30 [y] Energy consumption = x x where x is the salinity of feed water Water Transport [6,11] Horizontal pipes & pump Capex : /(km * m 3 / hr) Fixed Opex : 2.32 /(km * m 3 / hr) Vertical pipes and pump Capex : /(km * m 3 / hr) Fixed Opex : 2.4 /(km * m 3 / hr) Lifetime : 30 [y] Energy consumption Horizontal pumping : 0.04 kwh/(m 3 / hr) PV-Wind Hybrid [9,10] 1-axis PV Capex : 620 /kw Fixed Opex : 9 /kw Fixed axis PV Capex : 550 /kw Fixed Opex : 8 /kw Lifetime: 35 [y] Wind Capex : 1000 /kw Fixed Opex : 20 /kw Lifetime: 25[y] Battery Capex : 150 /kwh Opex : 10 /kwh Lifetime : 15 [y] Resulting System Costs Total annualized cost : bn Total Capex : 9789 bn Average LCOW : 1.41 /m 3 Average LCOW reduction due to PtG : 10% Annualized cost reduction :10% WACC :7% USD ERD used : Hydraulic turbine Water storage Vertical pumping :0.36 kwh /(m 3 / hr) Water electrolysis Capex : 380 /kw Opex : 13 /kw Capex : /m 3 Opex : 1.29 /m 3 Lifetime : 30 [y] CO2 scrubbing Capex : 356 /kw Opex : /kw Methanation Capex : 234 /kw Opex : 5 /kw Lifetime: 30 [y] 21

22 References 1. WWAP (United Nations World Water Assessment Programme),2014.The United Nations World Water Development Report2014: Water and Energy. Paris, UNESCO 2. Fthenakis V., Atia A. A., Morin O., Bkayrat R. and Sinha P. (2015), New prospects for PV powered water desalination plants: case studies in Saudi Arabia, Prog. Photovolt: Res. Appl., doi: /pip Luck, M., M. Landis, F. Gassert Aqueduct Water Stress Projections: Decadal projections of water supply and demand using CMIP5 GCMs. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute 4. Fichtner, 2011, MENA regional water outlook, Part 2 Desalination using renewable energy, Stuttgart 5. Loutatidou S., Chalermthai B., Marpu P.R, Arafat H., Capital cost estimation of RO plants: GCC countries versus southern Europe, Desalination, 347, Lamei A., Zaag van der P., Münch von E., Basic cost equations to estimate unit productivity costs for RO desalination and long-distance piping to supply water to tourism-dominated arid coastal regions of Egypt, Desalination, 225 (2008) SoodA.and Vladimir S., Can Desalination and Clean Energy Combined Help to Alleviate Global Water Scarcity? Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) DOI: /jawr Al-Zahrani, A.,Orfi, J., Al-Suhaibani, Z., Salim, B., Al-Ansary,H., Thermodynamic Analysis of a Reverse Osmosis Desalination Unit with Energy Recovery System, Procedia Engineering, 33, Kersten F., Doll R., Kux A., Hulji D.M., Görig M.A., Breyer Ch., Müller J., Wawer P., PV-Learning Curves: Past and Future Drivers of Cost Reduction, 26 th EU PVSEC, Hamburg, September 5-9, DOI: /26 th EUPVSEC2011-6CV Pleßmann G., Erdmann M., Hlusiak M., Breyer Ch., Global Energy Storage Demand for a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply, 8 th International Renewable Energy Storage Conference (IRES), Berlin, November Missimer M. T.,Maliva G. R., GhaffourN., LeiknesT. AndAmy G.L, 2014.Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) Economics for Wastewater Reuse in Low Population Wadi Communities, Kingdom ofsaudi Arabia, Water,6, ; doi: /w