Introduction to SUSPLAN

Transcription

1 10th IAEE European Conference Vienna, 8 September 2009 Introduction to SUSPLAN Bjørn H. Bakken, PhD SINTEF Energy Research bjorn.h.bakken@sintef.no

2 Independent non-profit research organization established in 1950 by the Norwegian Institute of Technology (NTH) Trondheim (1450) Oslo (450) Income 2007: 290 mill. Employees: 1, IAEE European Conference, Vienna 2

3 Academic partnerships The Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) University of Oslo (UiO), Faculty of mathematics and natural sciences Representing resources of: 24,500 full-time students 1,500 scientific employees 150 Post. Doc 750 PhD Students NTNU personnel contribute in SINTEF projects SINTEF employees teach and supervise at NTNU Joint use of laboratories and instruments IAEE European Conference, Vienna 3

4 OBJECTIVE: To develop a comprehensive set of robust guidelines for infrastructure and network decision makers and power distributors regionally and across Europe. The guidelines will be established on the basis of extensive regional and trans-national scenario studies. They will consist of strategies, recommendations, criteria and benchmarks for more efficient integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into future infrastructures in the time perspective of Duration: 36 months (September 2008 August 2011) Consortium: 16 partners - SUSPLAN - Development of regional and Pan-European guidelines for more efficient integration of renewable energy into future infrastructures Coordinator: SINTEF Energy Research, Norway bjorn.h.bakken@sintef.no IAEE European Conference, Vienna 4

5 SCOTLAND, UK Partners: UHI Millennium Institute, CnES Stakeholder: npower THE NETHERLANDS Partner: ECN Stakeholder: (GTS) GERMANY Partners: Fraunhofer- ISI, MVV, Dena Stakeholders: EnBW, ZMB, E.ON Ruhrgas, EWE Netz, Vattenfall, RWE SPAIN Partner: UP Comillas Stakeholders: RED Eléctricia, Iberdrola The SUSPLAN Consortium ITALY Partner: CESI-RICERCA Stakeholders: Terna, GSE IAEE European Conference, Vienna AUSTRIA Partners: EEG Verbund-AHP NORWAY Coordinator: SINTEF Stakeholders: Statkraft, Statnett POLAND Partner: EC BREC IEO Stakeholder: (Pomorskie) CZECH REPUBLIC Partner: ENVIROS ROMANIA Partner: ENERO SERBIA Partner: Statkraft Western Balkans BULGARIA Partner: BSREC Stakeholder: Sofia EDC 5

6 SUSPLAN work packages WP 2 (EEG) Grid related regional scenarios Scenarios WP 1 (SINTEF) Setup of Scenarios WP 3 (ECN) Trans-national scenarios Strategies WP 5 (Fraunhofer) Implementation strategies for decision makers WP 6 (Dena) Dissemination & Exploitation WP 4 (SINTEF) Scenario modelling tools Tools Project management (SINTEF) IAEE European Conference, Vienna 6

7 WP 2: Regional scenario studies Islands Responsible: UHI Partner: CnES Northern Europe Responsible: SINTEF West/Central Europe Responsible: ECN Partner: MVV, Dena North-East Responsible: EC BREC IEO Partner: ENVIROS South-East Responsible: ENERO Partner: BSREC South-West Responsible: UP Comillas South Responsible: CESI-R Western Balkans Responsible: SWB Partners: BSREC, EEG Alpine Responsible: AHP Partner: EEG IAEE European Conference, Vienna 7

8 4 Storylines (2020-) Positive public attitude High environmental focus in population and business. Reduced energy consumption and demand for environmentally friendly products Positive future for high RES integration, but too low technology development rate. Mainly decentralized development Slow tech development No major technology break-throughs; gradual development of current technologies Yellow Red Difficult future for high RES integration. Few new technologies are available, and low interest to invest. Mainly centralized development with traditional technologies Positive future for high RES integration. Both market pull and technology push existing. Green Fast tech development Major break-throughs several technologies, RES, grids, demand Blue side New technologies are available, but low interest to invest and use. Mainly centralized development, but with new technologies. Indifferent public attitude Low environmental focus in population and business. Higher energy consumption and no demand for environmentally friendly products or services IAEE European Conference, Vienna 8

9 Scenario setup Scenario analyses Regional / Trans-national Based on existing studies SUSPLAN Storylines Share of RES Assume that 2020 goals are reached before 2030 Min. RES levels Today Time (Year) IAEE European Conference, Vienna 9

10 Electricity market model of Europe A fully integrated European electricity market will be used as a common reference between the SUSPLAN regions Stochastic market model including wind and hydro data Includes non-res technologies like nuclear and CCS in the market balance Includes also the regions and countries NOT directly analyzed in SUSPLAN Similar approach for gas infrastructures?

11 A modeling approach for more efficient integration of renewable energy into future infrastructures Bjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. Belsnes SINTEF Energy Research Hans Auer EEG, TU-Wien

12 Properties of SUSPLAN scenarios Long time perspective There is a strong political will in Europe to promote sustainable development and security of supply The share of RES in the European system will be large. We shall analyse the need for infrastructures to integrate the RES RES-E, RES-Heat and RES-Gas are considered SUSPLAN covers the stationary part of the system, not the transport sector. However, electric vehicles and biofuels might influence the energy balance Two main factors for calculating the share of RES are energy demand and volume of RES 12

13 Outline of analytical approach Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricity market as a common starting point for the analyses Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN Includes non-res technologies like nuclear and CCS 13

14 Electricity market model of Europe A fully integrated European electricity market will be used as a common reference between the SUSPLAN regions Stochastic market model including wind and hydro data Includes non-res technologies like nuclear and CCS in the market balance Includes also the regions and countries NOT directly analyzed in SUSPLAN Similar approach for gas infrastructures?

15 Electricity market model (EMPS) 15

16 Stochastic renewable resources in European countries Hydro inflow in Norway 2030 (GWh/week) percentile 25 percentile 50 percentile 75 percentile 100 percentile 300 Wind and solar in Norway 2030 (GWh/week) percentile 25 percentile 50 percentile IAEE European 75 percentile Conference, 100 Vienna percentile 16

17 ...results in variable market prices Norway 2030 ( cent/kwh) percentile 25 percentile 50 percentile 75 percentile 100 percentile 6 Austria 2030 ( cent/kwh) percentile 25 percentile 50 percentile IAEE European 75 percentile Conference, 100 Vienna percentile 17

18 Electricity flow Average exchange from Norway to Sweden (2030) MWh/h Hours

19 Outline of analytical approach Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricity market as a common starting point for the analyses Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN Includes non-res technologies like nuclear and CCS Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 case studies 19

20 GreenNet: Generation capacity (Norway) 20

21 GreenNet: New wind projects (Norway) 21

22 GreenNet: New capacity cost (Wind, Norway) 22

23 Outline of analytical approach Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricity market as a common starting point for the analyses Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN Includes non-res technologies like nuclear and CCS Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 case studies Analyze the need for regional infrastructures Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency 23

24 Aggregated area model in etransport Aggregated sources Aggregated area loads El network El source El load DH Network Heat source Heat load Heat central Gas network Boiler Tap water load Gas source Ref: Gas load 24

25 Simple area model in etransport El market El network El load Elspot Boiler Waste 3 Storage 3 CHP 3 Waste 2 Storage 2 CHP 2 Gas 1 CHP 1 Heat feed-in Heat network Heat load Ref: 25

26 Input: Load and price profiles MWh/h 6 4 El load 2010 Heat load Hours EUR/MWh Elspot price 2010 Utility buyback price IAEE European Hours Conference, Vienna 26

27 Rank and timing of investment alternatives Investment cost - resource, plant, storage and network Operational cost - fuel, fixed cost etc Environmental cost - emission penalties EURO CHP 2, El boiler (2010) CHP 1 (2010) CHP 3, El boiler (2010) El boiler (2010) 27

28 Diurnal operation profiles MWh/h Heat production CHP heat Boiler heat Hours 5.00 El prod. + purchase MWh/h CHP electricity Elspot purchase Utility buyback Hours 28

29 Delayed commissioning of waste plant Waste 3 Storage 3 CHP 3 Boiler Waste 2 Gas 1 Storage 2 CHP 2 CHP 1 Heat feed EURO CHP 1 CHP 2, El boiler CHP 3, El boiler El boiler EURO CHP 1 CHP 2, El boiler CHP 3, El boiler El boiler _to_ _to_2020 IAEE European Conference, Vienna 2020_to_

30 Outline of analytical approach Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricity market as a common starting point for the analyses Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN Includes non-res technologies like nuclear and CCS Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 case studies Analyze the need for regional infrastructures Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency Analyze the need for trans-national infrastructures Detailed results from the 9 regions are correlated through the common electricity market from Step 1 Correlation also with trans-national gas model 30

31 Connections between regional and trans-national scenario studies Regional scenario analysis: 9 R E G I O N S 4 STORYLINES/SCENARIOS Regional output Trans-nation input: RES penetration + RES/energy mix per region (RES) export/import (firm/intermittent) per region Infrastructure needs + costs per region Prices per region Trans-national scenario analysis: Min. 4 Transnational scenarios 31

32 Connections between regional and trans-national scenario studies Three important aspects in the regional trans-national dimension of more efficient integration of RES into future infrastructures: Trans-national infrastructures can allow for exploitation of RES located far from consumption centres Trans-national infrastructures can reduce the problem of intermittent RES Utilisation of RES in regions with large consumption can reduce need for trans-national infrastructures Electricity and gas networks considered in parallel 32

33 Outline of analytical approach Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricity market as a common starting point for the analyses Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN Includes non-res technologies like nuclear and CCS Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 case studies Analyze the need for regional infrastructures Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency Analyze the need for trans-national infrastructures Detailed results from the 9 regions are correlated through the common electricity market from Step 1 Correlation also with trans-national gas model Verify and finalize the results If necessary, new calculations to ensure consistency between regional and trans-national level with electricity market as main reference 33

34 Summary of approach Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricity market as a common starting point for the analyses Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN Includes non-res technologies like nuclear and CCS Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 case studies Analyze the need for regional infrastructures Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency Analyze the need for trans-national infrastructures Detailed results from the 9 regions are correlated through the common electricity market from Step 1 Correlation also with trans-national gas model Verify and finalize the results If necessary, new calculations to ensure consistency between regional and trans-national level with electricity market as main reference 34

35 A modelling approach for more efficient integration of renewable energy into future infrastrucutres Bjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. Belsnes SINTEF Energy Research Hans Auer EEG, TU-Wien Contact: : bjorn.h.bakken@sintef.no