Click to add title. Energy infrastructure scenarios for the UK: are they resilient?

Transcription

1 Energy infrastructure scenarios for the UK: are they resilient? Jim Watson (with Ioanna Ketsopoulou, Modassar Chaudry, Simon Tindemans, Paul Dodds, Matt Woolf and Goran Strbac) IIESI Conference, NREL, Denver, 5-6 December 217

2 Outline Project rationale New UKERC scenarios Indicator framework Selected results Emerging conclusions

3 Click Rationale to add title

4 Dashboard Click to add approach title

5 217 UKERC Click to energy add title scenarios UK climate policy Strong commitment to meeting targets Policy commitment falters: 4 th carbon budget only Climate legislation repealed: 3 rd carbon budget only UK governance UK economic policy Centralised decision-making at UK level Small state; weak approach to infrastructure Decisions shared: central, devolved, local government Selective state action; co-investment in infrastructure Centralised decision-making; Scottish independence Active state; high infrastructure coinvestment Relationship with the EU Energy island carbon no BECCS carbon no CCS The UK stays in the EU The UK leaves the EU but has significant single market access Decarbonisation carbon optimism The UK leaves the EU with poor access to single market

6 217 UKERC Click to energy add title scenarios 6 Net CO 2 emissions (mt) Energy Island Decarbonisation Optimism

7 Indicator Click dashboard add title Fossil fuel prices Flexibility (proxy) Source: Emily Cox PhD thesis (217)

8 Summary dashboard 25 vs 216 Energy island decarb carbon carbon carbon optimism Energy diversity Electricity diversity Public opposition (elec) Oil imports Biomass imports Gas imports Gas LOLE Electricity LOLE Interconector capacity

9 Summary dashboard 25 vs 216 Energy island decarb carbon carbon carbon optimism Energy diversity Electricity diversity Public opposition (elec) Oil imports Biomass imports Gas imports Gas LOLE Electricity LOLE Interconector capacity

10 Availability indicators Electricity diversity Shannon-Weiner Index Only reduction in diversity: due to dominance of nuclear and wind Energy Island Decarbonisation Carbon Optimism

11 Availability indicators Potential public opposition to electricity mix Potential opposition to elec. mix (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Energy island and slow decarbonisation also have some shale gas production Energy Island Decarbonisation Carbon Optimism

12 Availability indicators Crude oil imports / demand 2 Net crude oil imports (PJ) Energy Island None 54% Decarbonisation 37% Carbon 21% 21% 1% Optimism Net imports in 25 as % of consumption (216: 17%)

13 Availability indicators Bioenergy imports / demand 8 4% 39% 39% 39% 6 37% Biomass imports (PJ) 4 2 6% Energy Island Decarbonisation Carbon Optimism Imports in 25 as % of consumption (216: 61%)

14 Loss of load expectation (hrs/year) Energy Island Reliability indicators Gas: loss of load expectation Decarbonisation 219 ~ ~.32 ~ Carbon Expected energy unserved in 25 (mcm) (Peak daily demand in 21: 47mcm) Increasing gas storage reduces LOLE to 19.7hrs and EEU to 15mcm Optimism

15 Reliability indicators Electricity: loss of load expectation 4 Loss of load expectation (hrs/year) Energy Island Decarbonisation Carbon Optimism Security standard: 3 hours per year

16 Reliability indicators Electricity: loss of load expectation Loss of load expectation (hrs/year) Energy Island Decarbonisation Carbon If 3GW DSR is added, security improves significantly Optimism Security standard: 3 hours per year

17 Emerging conclusions The relationship between decarbonisation and security is not straightforward Energy Island & Optimism have fewer red lights : o Optimism also meets carbon targets and energy demand in 25 is 25% lower decarbonisation and low carbon scenarios could have higher risks?

18 Emerging conclusions Energy imports can be a misleading indicator: share of demand plus diversity of sources / routes matter too Energy diversity increases as non-fossil energy grows, but could fall again in longer term Gas and electricity system reliability could get worse in some low carbon scenarios o But measures such as DSR and storage can be used to improve reliability Some important risks have not been assessed and are hard to quantify: especially cyber security

19 Thanks

20 Extra slides

21 Electricity generation in 25 (TWh) UKERC energy scenarios Electricity generation in 25 Energy Island Decarbonisation (no CCS) (no BECCS) Coal Natural Gas Natural Gas CCS Oil Manufactured fuels Biomass Biomass CCS Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Hydrogen Fuel cells Net Imports nology Optimism

22 217 UKERC energy scenarios Transport fuel demand in 25 Transport fuel demand (PJ) Biomass and biofuels Electricity Natural Gas Hydrogen Oil Products

23 Availability indicators Primary energy diversity Shannon-Weiner Index Energy Island Decarbonisation Carbon Optimism

24 Availability indicators Gas production and imports (23) Production / imports (PJ) Energy Island Decarbonisation Carbon UKCS UK shale Pipeline imports LNG imports Optimism

25 Availability indicators Gas production and imports (25) Production / imports (PJ) Energy Island Decarbonisation Carbon UKCS UK shale Pipeline imports LNG imports Optimism

26 Reliability indicators Electricity: Interconnection Interconnector Capacity (GW) Energy Island Decarbonisation Carbon Optimism

27 Reliability indicators Electricity: Storage Storage capacity (GW) Storage capacity is generally very low, due to nature of TIMES model 1 Energy Island Decarbonisation Carbon Optimism NB: 216 figure is for pumped storage only