energy use, and carbon emissions

Transcription

1 energy use, and carbon emissions Brian C. O Neill 10 March 2011 Xiaolin Ren, Leiwen Jiang (NCAR) Michael Dalton (NOAA) Regina Fuchs, Shonali Pachauri, Katarina Zigova (IIASA)

2 Why does urbanization matter to emissions? Major demographic trend Urban populations are different Urban economies and infrastructures are different

3 Urbanization also matters to Health care Education Employment and poverty Climate change impacts

4 Urban vs. rural households Energy consumption Energy in GJ Per capita India Rural All urban Only metros Biomass Coal Kerosene Propane Electricity Energy in GJ Per capita China Rural Town City Biomass Coal Propane Gas Electricity Data: S. Pachauri, L. Jiang.

5 Data: L. Jiang. Labor Income per cap (US 2001$) Urban vs. rural households China Urban Rural Labor supply Age of Household Head

6 Modeling study design Energy and emissions model Long-term population/urbanization projections 50- to100-year emissions scenarios

7 Two experiments 1. How much does urbanization affect emissions globally? Urbanization vs. no urbanization 2. How important is urbanization in India and China? Fast vs. slow urbanization

8 ipets: 9 Region Model, with Trade 5 Transition Countries 1 US 3 EU-27 6 China 2 Latin America 4 Sub- Saharan Africa 7 India 8 Other Devel. 9 Other Indust.

9 PET Model Population-Environment-Technology Model Originally created by Lawrence H. Goulder and Michael Dalton, Stanford University Households Consumption & Savings Capital & Labor CO 2 Emissions Final Goods Labor Capital Final Goods Producers Consumption, Investment, Government, Exports/ Imports Energy Materials Intermediate Goods Producers Oil & Gas, Coal, Electricity Refined Petroleum, Materials

10 HH Characteristics Labor supply Preferences etc. Region 9 PET Model PET Model Region PET Model Region 1 1 Region 1 PET Model HH Outcomes Consumption Income etc. Characteristics by Type Age, Size Household Projection Household Survey Data USA

11 HH Characteristics Labor supply Preferences etc. Region 9 PET Model PET Model Region PET Model Region 1 1 Region 1 PET Model HH Outcomes Consumption Income etc. Upscaling Characteristics by Type Urban/Rural, Age, Size, Income, Education, Household Projection Outcomes by Type Urban/Rural, Age, Size, Income, Education, Downscaling Household Survey Data China, India, Indonesia, EU, Russia, USA, Japan, Mexico, Brazil

12 Experiment 1 1. How much does urbanization affect emissions globally? Urbanization vs. no urbanization 2. How important is urbanization in India and China? Fast vs. slow urbanization

13 UN, Population Scenarios 14B UN High Population (Billions) 12B 10B 8B UN Medium 6B UN Low 4B

14 Carbon Emissions Results Carbon Emissions (Billion tons carbon/yr) 20 B2 (High) B2 (Medium) B2 (Low) O Neill et al., PNAS, 2010.

15 Carbon Emissions Results Emissions (billion tons of carbon/year) Urbanization, 2050 Urbanization, World O Neill et al., PNAS, 2010.

16 Carbon Emissions Results Emissions (billion tons of carbon/year) Urbanization, Urbanization, China India USA EU O Neill et al., PNAS, 2010.

17 What drives results? Primarily an income effect (via labor supply) Consumption goods: Energy, Food, Transportation, Othe r Small urbanization-driven changes in preferences No disaggregation of energy good

18 Experiment 2 1. How much does urbanization affect emissions globally? Urbanization vs. no urbanization 2. How important is urbanization in India and China? Fast vs. slow urbanization Energy: Electricity, Biomass/coal, Other

19 Effects of Urbanization On Primary Energy Consumption On CO 2 Emissions Central Fast 2500 China Fast Primary Energy(EJ/year) China Slow Fast India Slow Central GHG Emissions (MtC/year) Central Fast India Slow Slow Central Year Year

20 Urbanization effect on electricity preferences China India

21 Urbanization effect on coal/biomass preferences China India

22 Role of preferences in expenditures Actual expenditures = f (preferences, prices, substitution elasticities)

23 Consumption preferences Data: Zigova et al., Various surveys.

24 Consumption preferences, energy goods Data: Zigova et al., Various surveys.

25 Preference effect on Electricity consumption China US/EU prefs India

26 Preference effect on Coal/Bio consumption China US/EU prefs India

27 Final Thoughts Urbanization may strongly affect emissions in particular world regions Modeling urbanization effects involves challenges in demography, economics, and energy systems Next steps: income effects on preferences, downscaling, supply side implications