Transformation and Balance in Nature

Transcription

1 Transformation and Balance in Nature 12,000 years ago the earth s temperatures had warmed, and the climate stabilized. This was accompanied by rapid growth in ecosystems, and rapid growth in human population, and the economies of humankind. Understanding: Early economics was set in an empty world, with abundant ecosystems and very few humans. Now we are in a full world, where the reverse is true. The more human activity increases, the faster we will transform earth s communities. Now we have to find the right balance of human activity and the activity of plants and animals. Facts: Concepts: Additional Resources: -Roughly 12,000 years ago, nature found a new balance and the temperature became stable -Human population has grown exponentially -Resource consumption has grown exponentially -Species extinctions have grown exponentially -Balance between economy and nature -Empty world vs. Full world. -Exponential growth, positive feedback and negative feedback. On the nature of exponential growth activity:

2 Lesson One: A History of Growth Introduction 12,000 years ago, about 3 million humans inhabited the earth. If you lived during this period, it is likely that your community would consist of about 30 people. Your house would be a small shelter built from grass, stone, and animal hide. Unfortunately, because of disease, you would have little chance of surviving beyond 40 years old. Despite its challenges, life had its joys. By day, life primarily revolved around sustenance. Time was spent hunting, gathering and preparing food. By night, traditional songs, stories and dances connect you with knowledge of past generations. At the time you would have several basic technologies. You would have the power of fire, you would have spears, bow and arrows, and you may have had rope. The other good news is that the earth is emerging from a long ice age. Forests, fisheries and ecosystems of all kind begin to overflow with life in its many forms. Over thousands of years, agriculture develops, and village populations grow. For the first time, roughly 5,000 years ago we see great civilizations, in the Middle East and Northern Africa, and thousands of years later in Asia, the Americas and Europe. During this time social institutions like Religion, brought people together in unprecedented ways. With extra agricultural products to go around there was increasing trade and the production of non-agricultural commodities. Eventually, certain items began to take on symbolic value, like shells, and ornaments. This laid the groundwork for the creation of money and economic activity as we know it today. Note. Ancient Chinese spade money, designed to emulate agricultural tools. Since that period 12,000 years ago, our populations have grown 1,400 times. We have seen extreme growth in technological advancement which has enabled humans to expand their reach, and manipulate the environment in new ways. Humans have has such a massive impact on earth systems that Geologists are considering renaming this epoch the Anthropocene (Geologic era of humans.) In the following pages we will discuss the consequences of infinite growth, the Anthropocene, resource consumption and the difference between Empty World Economics and Full World Economics.

3 The Anthropocene. The Anthropocene has been named as such because humans have become a dominant force in the ecosystem. During this period we have seen an unprecedented rise in a diverse array of Ecological variables. Similar growth trends exist for everything from fertilizer consumption to exploited fisheries to forest loss. When we look at all of these patterns what we see is a pattern called exponential growth. Exponential growth implies that the system keeps growing and growing at a faster rate. Human Population in Billions Annual Water Use in Km3 7 6, , , Annual Species Extinctions 20,000 10, Exponential growth Exponential growth is difficult to conceive of. Imagine that you folded a piece of paper in half 25 times. How thick do you imagine this paper would be? Think about it. The answer is very surprising. It would be a quarter mile thick! Imagine you folded the paper five more times. Now the paper would be 6.67 miles thick. After 45 folds, the paper could reach to the moon. Exponential growth is a mathematical term, so let s take a look at some mathematics. Some systems that evolve over time do not grow exponentially. Consider the equation: f(x)=f(x+2)/2 Imagine we start with x=6. F(6)=(6+2)/2=4. Because f(x) is on both sides of the equation we plug the answer (4) back in. F(4)=(4+2)/2=F(3)=(3+2)/2=F(2.5)=... f(2)=(2+2)/2=f(2)... This is an example of negative feedback. These functions eventually find a balance at 2 so that it stays the same f(2)=(2+2)/2=(2+2)/2=2=(2+2/2)=2. What if, rather than (x+2)/2 the equation was (x+2)*2. If we start with 6, we get 16, 36, 76, 156 and after 30 iterations we have over 1 billion. It keeps growing faster St. Matthews Island Reindeer and faster! That s positive feedback and exponential growth. Population What s the problem with exponential growth? There is always a limiting function in nature. No system is isolated. Notice the 6,000 population when Reindeer were introduced to St. Matthews (as can be seen in the graph to the right.) Being on a new Island, the ecosystem had not yet created a system of balancing, 3,000 negative feedbacks. Food was plentiful and there were no predators. Each generation had more offspring than the replacement rate and the population grew exponentially. However, after a period of exponential and seemingly limitless growth, we saw a harsh limit emerge. The reindeer had wiped out their food supply and the negative feedback emerge with force. In nature, all positive feedbacks eventually find a limit and become a part of a larger pattern of balance

4 Human Systems Humans have mastered many of the principles of negative feedback in many forms. Can you think of some examples? Historically, powerful members of society became more and more powerful because they could continue to shape society in ways that make them more powerful. However, in democracies, the rulers are ruled by the ruled! This should prevent any particular people from abusing their power too much, because if they do, then people will not vote for them again. Or consider our government, which has a system of checks and balances to prevent one branch of government from gaining all of the power. These principles of balance and negative feedback ensure that people are able to work together and cooperate. Because of our cooperation we have become very powerful. Unfortunately, we do not have a balance with nature! Currently, human population and resource consumption are growing exponentially. Today we add millions of people to the planet every couple of weeks; we add more than the entire global population was 10,000 years ago. In addition, in some places in the world, our consumption rate has become astonishing. The average American home size has tripled in the last 50 years. The average American family throws away 65 pounds of clothing per year. The average American home has over 3,000 items. We spend more on shoes, watches and jewelry than higher education. Because of our capacity to work together we can transform the earth for economic goods and services, but this is not sustainable. All of this consumption comes at a hidden price. We are not only running out of resources, we are also destabilizing many of the balances that exist in nature. These balances are what allow a large variety of species to live together on the same earth and to use the sun s energy efficiently. Today, unfortunately, we are seeing the most rapid species extinction in 66 million years, and the destabilization of a balanced climate system which has allowed life to prosper. The challenge which humanity now faces is to find a balance between social-economic activity and the activity of our ecological companions. The next generation will be tasked with findings ways to link people, businesses, economies and governments to the activity of nature so that economic activity does not increase at enormous cost to nature and society. In order to do this it is important to first develop a very basic understanding of the way that traditional economics is changing. Empty World vs. Full World. Much of our current economic theory was developed in what we can call an empty world. This means that nature could largely be ignored. Theorists assumed that positive economic growth could continue forever, like the reindeer on a the recently inhabited St. Matthews Island. Imagine a group of loggers in an empty world. If these loggers wanted to make more money and sell more timber, all they needed to do was increase the number of loggers (their labor), or improve their technology. We can assume in an empty world that the more money they earn, the more they can invest in labor and technology, the more forest they can cut down and therefore the more money they can earn which can go further be invested in labor and technology and cutting down more forest. This perpetual growth function is constrained only by labor, technology and demand. Thus, if we have an ever increasing population and ever increasing consumption, we can expect perpetual growth. Of course, in a full world, we understand that if we cut down too many trees, we will run out of forest. If we fish too many fish, we will run out of fish. In a full world, we see that perpetual growth and positive feedback can be destructive, and will ultimately lead to collapse or decline. The first goal of a steady state economy is to be the right size. Just like a human being stops growing in height and weight, and starts growing intellectually, and morally, an economy which is the right size, is

5 Positive Feedback and the Circular Flow chart of the Economy In neoclassical economic thinking, the basic model of the economy can be thought of as a circular flow as modelled in the following diagram. Image. The Circular flow Diagram Producers Consumers If we ignore the forests and the fish, the soil, the solar energy and other inputs from nature than we might imagine that this circular flow can generate positive feedback forever. The more consumers spend, the more goods and services that producers (businesses) can produce, the more that labor earns and therefore the more that they can spend. If this flow is all we pay attention to, then infinite growth is a great thing and it can go on forever. However, as we know, positive feedback loops always find counter balancing forces. Today we are in a full world, and so what matters is that the economy is the right size. In future lessons we will learn more about what it means for the economy to be the right size and how this will impact, consumers, citizens, government and businesses. The economy transforms limited ecological resources into economic goods and services, and in the process produces waste, and changes ecosystem structures. A sustainable economy will use a stable quantity of resources and leave ecological structures intact so that ecosystems can continue to rebuild themselves with the help of solar energy. Economic Activity

6 Name: Date: Lesson One Questions: The History of Growth (For the following questions, use reading or online information to give accurate responses.) 1. What is a rough estimate of the human population in the year 10,000 BCE, the year 1800 and today? 2. What is the difference between positive feedback and negative feedback? 3. What is an example of positive feedback in today s ecosystems? 4. What is the difference between full world economics and empty world economics? 5. Discuss three parameters which are experiencing exponential growth. 6. What is the central goal of steady state economics, discussed in this lecture?