R&I ROADMAP & FOCUS AREAS TOWARDS A RE-BASED ENERGY-SYSTEM

Transcription

1 R&I ROADMAP & FOCUS AREAS TOWARDS A RE-BASED ENERGY-SYSTEM Cities 5 th General Consortium Meeting Anders Bavnhøj Hansen, abh@energinet.dk Chief Engineer Energinet, Electricity System Operator R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

2 DISPOSITION ENTSO-E/G TYNDP18 scenarios 1: International Energy Scenarios 2: System Perspectives for Denmark 3: Interaction between Distributed and central ressources 4: R&I Targets and focus areas R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

3 INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK SCENARIOS EU R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

4 INTERNATIONAL SCENARIOS FROM ENTSO-E/G Content of the 3 European TYNDP 2018-scenarios GCA-scenario (Global Climate Action) "On track" with EU current climate targets Strong international, green cooperation Moderate oil price high CO 2 -price (IEA 450 PPM) DG-scenario (Distributed Generation) "On track" with EU current climate targets Wide spread local distributed solutions (solar/batteries) High oil price (IEA New Policy) high CO 2 -price ST-scenario (Sustainable Transition) Not on track" with EU climate targets Low oil and natural gas prices Moderate CO 2 -price(iea Low Oil price scenario) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Wind and solar share of consumption (EU) 18% 19% 14% 10% 8% 13% 8% 10% 4% 6% 7% 3% 12% 15% 17% 17% 19% 22% 2020* ST30 ST35 DG35 GCA35 GCA40 6% 8% 10% 19% 11% 17% 24% 22% 15% 26% 19% 32% 15% 20% 21% 20% 21% 22% 2020* ST30 ST35 DG35 GCA35 GCA40 Solar (PV) Havvind Offshore wind Landvind Onshore wind Wind and solar share of cons. NorthSea (DE, UK, NL, DK) Solar (PV) Havvind Offshore wind Landvind Onshore wind R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

5 MUCH MORE WIND AND SOLAR > MORE PRICE FLUCTUATION 70% Nordsee-region Vind og sol. Andel af elforbrug (DE, UK, NL, DK) 19% 60% DK i % 50% 11% 17% Sol (PV) 10% 40% 32% Havvind 24% 26% 30% 19% 22% 6% Landvind 20% 8% 10% 15% 20% 21% 20% 21% 22% 0% 2020* ST30 ST35 DG35 GCA35 GCA40 DKK/MWh 1,500 1, DK1 power price duration curve ST 2030 and GCA GCA Reference GCA 2040 (basecase uden tiltag) ST 2030 ST2030 High wind/solar but low prices More hours with zero-price Market value of wind/solar below LCOE cost R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

6 COST REDUCTION FORECAST IN LI-ION BATTERIES 100 $/kwh Could batteries solve the North-sea windpower balancing challenge? R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

7 SECTOR COUPLING TO GET ACCESS TO LOW COST STORAGE CAPACITY Battery Heat storage Storage (NG/SNG) Power system District Heating System System Invest.omk. energidel (DKK/kWh) Investment cost energy storage part (excl input/output units) Storage (H2) Sector coupling Battery storage is essential for hourly balancing but too expensive for large scale storage Sector coupling to gas and heat can deliver more cost effective large scale storage Essential to analyse cost effective sector couplings! R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system For all the growth in battery installations that BNEF is forecasting, the total volume of gridconnected batteries by 2030 will be sufficient to meet the world s power needs for just 7,5 minutes Michael Liebreich, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, March,

8 SYSTEM ANALYSIS FOR DENMARK R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

9 SECTOR-COUPLING AT LARGE, MEDIUM AND SMALL PROSUMERS Central Energy Plant Industry/Service Prosumer Household Prosumer Flexible consumption simulated in grid areas incl. used as grid reserves Centralized energyplant with power-to-gas Industry Prosumer with HP Private Prosumer PV/battery + (HeatP) Decentralized biogas/energyplant With power-to-gas Decentral CHP with Heat pump to LNG and GtL Decentralised Biogas/EnergyPlant R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system Decentralised CHP Full grid capacity (physical) Capacity with N-1 grid reserves constrains 10

10 GCA 2035 SIMULATED ANNUAL ENERGY FLOW 11 Import electricity Solar (PV) Bio, waste etc. Natural Fossil Oil Coal Bio CHP/boiler Anaerob ification R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system CHP Power System District heating and block heating Methanisation -systemer (metan/syntesegas/h2) Storage Consumption Eksport electricity doubled towards 2050 Electrication: El-proces Heating light, it, cool. Transport PtG/PtX Processheat Data centers Power-to- katalysis etc. Large Heat Pumps Thermal ification Fuel Storage Liquid fuels fossil/re (oline, Diesel, Methanol, DME etc.) HT-Heat P Heat Pump Boiler EV/PHEV ICE/FC Windpower Building Wind/solar covers heating (annually) more than 80% of production Road after 2035transport and 95% in 2050 Railway Transport A very high need for use of flexibility to balance system, Maritime ancillery services and enhanced use of grid Aviation

11 El (kw) INVESTMENT ANALYSIS HOUSEHOLD PROSUMER PV production and grid use at houshold PV Net Grid import use at household Consumption H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10 House consumption MWh 4,7 3,1 3,1 4,1 4,4 4,8 5,0 5,3 5,6 5,6 Electric Vehicle MWh 5,2 0,0 7,0 5,2 5,2 5,2 3,0 3,0 5,2 5,2 PV kw 12,0 5,1 12,0 12,0 12,0 12,0 11,7 11,1 12,0 12,0 PV Battery kwh 23,3 9,2 25,9 24,1 23,9 24,9 12,9 11,2 12,9 13,8 Investment (least cost optimization) Up to12 kw PV 9-26 kwh battery Import from grid Winter Export at summer Offgrid not economical reasonable But what about the grid capacity? R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

12 Feeder total power flow MW SIMULATED HOUSES WITH EV, SOLAR, BATTERY (INCL. SMARTGRID) 0,4 kv Bottleneck on feeder too many EV s wants to charge cheap electricity Duration curve Sorted prices for one year (8760 hours) Bottleneck on feeder too much solar production wants to deliver power to grid A need for a SmartNet to control congestion at high net-use (EV charging) and (PV solar production) R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

13 R&I FOCUS R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

14 R&I TARGET LINES ELECTRICITY Full scale of new offshore grid connection concepts possibly in interaction with gas Electricity markets underpin efficient operation of the electricity system System adequacy full marketed (incl. Grid) Market based system operation Market and physics close integrated Maximum use of physical capacity Demonstration of new offshore grid connection concepts possibly in interaction with gas. Power-to-gas strategy Development of costeffective AC/DC principles for grid connection of RE (incl. HVDC multiterminal) Extensive use of operations support tools for optimum utilisation of electricity infrastructure Demonstration of operations support tools for optimum utilisation of electricity infrastructure AI data strategy. Digital substation strategy Standardisation Bidsize Spatial resolution Time resolution Optimisation of Energy-only as market model for generation adequacy Demonstration of market models for distributed energy ressources (DER) in collaboration with (DSO s) Ready for system operation without spinning plants in the region Supply of ancillary services required to maintain power system stability and system stability from converterbased generation/demand Strategy for market-based solutions for procurement of ancillary services required to maintain power system stability System stability R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

15 R&I TARGET LINES - GAS R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

16 Tak for opmærksomheden

17 STORAGE SIMULATION AND CAPACITY Electric power (MW) 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000 Electric exchange DK with foreign countries GCA2035 Total exchange (MW) Hour Accum. Exchange (GWh) Accumulated (GWh) 2,500 1, ,500-2,500 Individual HP District heating Electric vehicles Battery prosumer Electricic ICs RE-gas Capacity (power) Electric capacity uptake (GW) Capacity (Energy) case 2035 storages (electric input for Power-to-gas) Electric power Accumulated (MW) (GWh) 15,000 2,500 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000 Electric exchange DK with foreign countries GCA , Time -1,500-2,500 Total exchange (MW) Accum. Exchange (GWh) R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system Potential Small H2 cavern EV Indiv. HP Potential longer term heat storages Prosumer batteries DH system A potential large cavern with H2 Interconnectors typical utilisation case ,7 TWh yearly accumulated

18 SECTOR COUPLING IN AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE Danske Styrkepositioner for sektorkobling Electricity Competitive prices High security of supply High RE-share (RE for PtG/PtX products) -grid and caverne storage facilities for RE-gas (H2, Syngas, Methan) District heat Value of surplus heat from PtX Bio/Carbon Position of strengths in Biomass/biogas (carbon-source) DK positions of strengths for integratoin of North-see RE-potentials in power-gas-heat-fuel systems Investigation of Dogger Banke offshore PtG (H2) with onshore refinery to PtX R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

19 SIMULATION OF SYSTEM AND LEAST COST ANALYSIS D,NL,UK, N,S Power transmission (>100 kv) Windpower offshore Windpower onshore Solar (PV) Large scale Wood chips Large energy plant (3 ) Syngas H2 O2 turbine + boiler ETES Bio-2-gas (thermal) Steam turbine High temp. Water Shift Syngas Power-togas H2 RE-fuel catalysis O2 Varme H2 (NH3 etc.) Industry/service prosumer Solar (PV) Heatpump Heat boiler Battery Lille prosumer bolig el. service Solar (PV) Battery EV Heat pump Heat Wood waste Heat Storage District/block heating Slurry Bio-waste Straw etc. Decentralised energy plant(2) C-N-P-K Biogas enhed Anaerob motor Biogas SNG catalysis Power-togas H2 MeOH catalysis Varme lager CHP boiler Decentralised district heating plant (1) Heatpump Varmelager LNG plant LNG LNG /Power-to-Liquid G2L D, S, N, PL net with NG/SNG (evt. NatHy) R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system storage

20 Varmeproduktion til net (TWh) DISTRICT HEAT-PRODUKTION Heat production in analysed scenarios ST excl. PtG/PtX KV FV VP mv PtG/PtX mv 2035 GCA 2050 GCA Heat demands Heat demand can be used for further refinery of Northsea power (PtG/PtX). R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system

21 DRIFT AF EKSEMPEL PÅ STOR PROSUMER Power System Windpower offshore Large Energyplant (3 ) Windpower onshore Syngas H2 turbine + boiler Power-togas Steamturbine O2 Solar (PV) Large Scale Wood chips O2 Bio-2-gas (thermal) Højtemp. Syngas H2 RE-fuel katalysis RE-fuel market Heat Storage District- and block heat Price (EUR/MWh) grid (NG/SNG) /4 28/4 29/4 30/4 1/5 2/5 3/5 4/5 storage 150 MW solar park (PV) 850 MW offshore wind farm 140/140 MW energy plant (type 3) DK1 electricity price (EUR/MWh) R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system Power (MW) Simulated operation of plant Elpris Effekt

22 produktion (TWh) GCA 2050 SIMULATED ANNUAL ENERGY FLOW 23 Import electricity Power System Export electricity Solar (PV) Bio, waste etc Natural Fossil Oil -production from biomasse and Power-to-gas (PtG) Bio CHP/Boiler Anaerob ification CHP Methanisation Storage Wind- Power Power-to- District heating and block heating katalysis etc. -systems (methan/syntesisgas/h2) Large Heat Pumps Thermal gasification ST ue 2035 DG 2035 GCA 2035 ST 2050 DG 2050 GCA 2050 Fuel Storage HT-VP. Varmep. Kedel EV/PHEV Forgasning, biogas Elektrolyse, met. Forgasning Elektrolyse, biof. FM/FC El-proces light, it, cool Proces Heat Building heating Road Transport Railway Transport Maritime end use Coal R&I Roadmap & Focus areas towards a RE-based Energy-system Liquid fuels fossil/re (oline, Diesel, Methanol, DME, etc.) Aviation