Lesson learned about the integration of large amount of volatile Renewable Energy Resources

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1 Francesco Rizzo, Area Manager America & Iberia III BIREGIONAL FORUM WEC N.A. AND LAC- Cancun, Dec. 6-7, 2012 How to Satisfy the Energy Demand of the Americas in a World with Greater Environmental and Financial Constraints Lesson learned about the integration of large amount of volatile Renewable Energy Resources

2 CESI is a leading player in engineering, technical and power systems consulting acting in 35 Countries CESI Berlin Testing & Certification Consulting, Solutions & Services Engineering, Environment Mannheim Milan Dubai Rio de Janeiro A network of 1,000 Professionals Cancun - 07/12/2012 2

3 Lesson learned about the integration of large amount of volatile Renewable Energy Resources Summary 1. The Italian electricity case 2. RES penetration

4 During the last years gas energy contribution decreased and gave way to RES penetration 1.0 Italian Energy production evolution by sources ( ) [GWh] 350, , ,000 Other/Net Import Oil 200,000 Gas 150, ,000 Coal 50,000 Hydro RES Source: AEEG, Italian TSO Cancun - 07/12/2012 4

5 Efficient thermal generation fleet with no peers in Europe 1.0 Thermal Fleet Efficiency Thermal Efficiency benchmarking % % 47% 45.9% 45% 43% 42.7% 44.5% 43.9% 43.4% 45.7% 44.7% 44.3% 33% 38% 44% 46% 41% 39.9% 39.8% 40.6% 41.7% 39% France Germany U.K. Italy Source: Italia DSO, REF Analysis 5

6 natural gas focused 1.0 % Electricity Energy Mix Coal GAS OIL Nuclear Renewables 11% 5% 5% 1% 26% 10% 14% 44% 13% 23% 1% 31% 5% 20% 75% 3% 22% 28% 38% 32% 52% 8% 19% 33% 14% 21% 19% 26% Germany Spain France EU27 Italy 2000 Italy 2010 Source: European market observatory for Energy, 2010 Cancun - 07/12/2012 6

7 Italian RES incentives are greater than rest of Europe 1.0 Renewable energy production incentives [ /MWh] 313 2x ~170 Billion Euro on the citizens energy bill over 20 years PV (i.e. 200kW) Wind (i.e. 10MW) Biomass (i.e. 200kW) Biogas (i.e. 200kW) x x Italy 1 Germany 2 France 3 U.K. 4 Europe 5 27 Source: Italian Minister of Economic Development,

8 as a results of over-remuneration the installed PV capacity is facing a boom 1.0 RES installed capacity and forecast GW Wind Solar Italian Energy Target = 10 GW September, 2012 F2016 Italian Energy Target = 6 GW Source: solar - GSE, wind Terna Italian TSO 8

9 and new Wind farms and PV power plants flourished 1.0 Cumulative Total Output by sources ( ) [GW] Wind PV Geo 80 Thermo-electric 60 Peak Load Hydro E2012 Source: AEEG, Italian TSO Cancun - 07/12/2012 9

10 Post crisis demand decreased and rapid RES growth is squeezing thermoelectric production 1.0 Italian energy injected into the grid TWh Import/Export Volatile Renewables Thermo-electric Hydro E -40% 4,221 3,064 3,007 2,501 Thermo-electric generation fleet [full load equivalent hours] Contribution to national production of thermo-electric power plants Source: Italian TSO Cancun - 07/12/

11 Prices will tend to be higher on the evening then during day time 1.0 Italian intraday price [ /MWh] 120 The reduction of market prices in daylight hours, caused by a massive PV generation, is compensated by owners of conventional generators by increasing their biddings in the early evening hours to recover their margins F Source: GME, Italian Market Operator, Internal analysis How to Satisfy the Energy Demand of the Americas in a World with Greater Environmental and Financial Constraints 11

12 New cross-frontier transmission lines are under study aiming to foster a higher penetration of RES Referred to winter peak NTC value in import Source: Italian TSO 12

13 Cross-Border Interconnections and Integration of Volatile Renewable Energy Resources Summary 1. The Italian electricity case 2. RES penetration

14 RES penetration can affect the power system behavior 2.0 System wide 1,000-5,000 km Regional 100-1,000 km 2 Grid Stability Primary Reserve 1 Secondary Reserve Transmission efficiency 4 3 Reduced Emissions Hydrothermal efficiency Congestion management 5 Adequacy of power Adequacy of grid Distribution Local km Voltage management Efficiency Power quality ms s sec min min h 1h 24h years Source: Holttinen,

15 Wind has a lower predictable generation pattern than sun 2.0 Daily Generation Curve of wind and solar power plants on 1 August 2012 and 15 August 2012 [MW] Solar Variability: 100 Small PV Systems throughout Germany ,000 3,000 2,000 1, :00 AM 1:00 AM 2:00 AM 3:00 AM 4:00 AM 5:00 AM 6:00 AM 7:00 AM 8:00 AM 9:00 AM 10:00 AM 11:00 AM 12:00 PM 1:00 PM 2:00 PM 3:00 PM 4:00 PM 5:00 PM 6:00 PM 7:00 PM 8:00 PM 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 11:00 PM Source: EEX Transparency Platform, 50Hertz Transmission GmbH; DOE, Wiemken et al. (2001) How to Satisfy the Energy Demand of the Americas in a World with Greater Environmental and Financial Constraints 15

16 1 Need for additional reserve to cope with the intermittency of nonprogrammable RES generation 2.0 Upward reserve to compensate RES Downward reserve to compensate RES Conventional & RES Programmable Generation Upward reserve to compensate RES Downward reserve to compensate RES Conventional & RES Programmable Generation Need for additional upward and downward reserve Wind might require up to twice the additional reserve respect to sun Reserve provided by a reduced number of conventional and programmable RES generation Non Programmable RES generation Source: IEA-wind, 2011 Low RES penetration Scenario Traditional Production High RES penetration Scenario Non Programmable RES generation Flexibility enhancement of the conventional generation is becoming a key priority to operate in an efficient way the system together with possible application of suitable storage devices 16

17 3 Coping with sharp variations of RES generation 2.0 Italian demand profile on Sunday, April 2012 [GW] 40 Load Residual Generation net of PV GW in half an hour Load ramp in the evening that has to be covered by dispatchable generation and import Flexibility enhancement of the conventional generation is becoming a key priority to operate the system associate; This means let work conventional power plant far away from their efficiency level with emissions concern; Owners of conventional generators increase their biddings in the early evening hours to recover their margins Source: Internal Analysis on Italian energy market 17

18 4 Sun and wind are location dependent and often remote locations from the demand centers Power flowing on longer patterns through the network with risk of creating scattered congestions also relatively far away from RES generation areas Problems of local overloads in the HV grid ( kv) have been experienced in Italy, particularly in the South mainly due to wind generation. 2.0 Source: Internal Analysis on Italian energy market 18

19 5 A sudden risk of black-out due to RES disconnection when frequency is outside grid code limits Connection rules, which allowed their automatic disconnection above a narrow frequency error (e.g. 0.3 Hz in Italy, 0.2 Hz in Germany). When exceeding such thresholds the interconnected EU system risks a sudden tripping of 12 GW in Italy and 14 GW in Germany A generation loss that far exceed any incident occurred in Europe; Recently rules have been reviewed imposing that new RES generation shall stay connected up to the same values of frequency deviations tolerated by the conventional generation. 2.0 Source: Internal Analysis on Italian energy market 19

20 Options for Increasing Power System Flexibility to Accommodate Renewables 2.0 High Cost Concentrating Solar Power Supply Side Flexibility Gas Generation And Coal Cycling Existing Hydro, Pumped Hydro and Gas Storage Demand Side Flexibility Heating and Transportation Ice and Heat Low cost Improving Pricing and Demand Response Increasing Renewable Energy (RE) Penetration Source: DOE; Denholm,

21 CESI has developed a four-layers top down approach 2.0 Goal Assessing the maximum RES generation penetration while minimizing the risk of curtailment Step 1. Reserve Criterion 2. Network connection Static analysis 3. Reliability analysis Details Single Bus-bar model Additional reserve to face the unpredictability of RES RES energy feed points and network constraints are not considered yet Load flow calculations in compliance Load scenarios are considered Check congestions on transmission network Different scenarios of RES penetration are evaluated on the secure and reliable supply of electricity 4. Dynamic Analysis Check the fluctuations due to RES production intermittency 21

22 CESI main references in max penetration of RES 2.0 Develop the databases necessary for the technical analysis Reviewing the system planning policies, standards, criteria, grid codes for wind turbines and methodology. Analyzing the impact of wind generation on several time scales from milliseconds to several hours of different topics of system Performing detailed static and dynamic reliability analysis related to the bottlenecks and other constraints of the network Transferring the knowledge on integrating wind power in the national electricity network. Consulting Services performed by CESI in the last 3-years supporting Government and Utilities to maximize RES penetration and avoid grid issue. 22

23 Energy Storage can provide the proper match between demand and offer 2.0 Storage technologies by Operators and Duration Seconds Hours Days Vehicles to Grid batteries Supercaps Lead Acid Advanced batteries SMES, Flywheels Pumped Hydro Small scale to smooth high frequency low amplitude intermittency: batteries; Large scale for system wide stabilization: hydro pumping CESI is supporting the national TSO to evaluate Energy Storage Potential of new Pumping Power Stations and other Storage Technologies DSO Field TSO Field Emerging technologies Mature technologies 23

24 Milan Berlin Mannheim Dubai Rio de Janeiro

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