SCORECARDS. Report prepared by ECOFYS Germany jointly commissioned by WWF and Allianz SE

Transcription

1 G8 CLIMATE SCORECARDS 2008 Report prepared by ECOFYS Germany jointly commissioned by WWF and Allianz SE Dr. Niklas Höhne, Author, ECOFYS Germany Regine Günther, Director of Climate and Energy, WWF Germany Dr. Joachim Faber, Member of the Allianz SE Holding Board

2 The Ranking G8 Climate Scorecards Dr. Niklas Höhne The G8 Summit in Hokkaido Regine Günther Financial Services: Response to Climate Change Dr. Joachim Faber 03. July 2008, Page 1

3 WHAT ARE THE G8 CLIMATE SCORECARDS?» Report produced by independent consultancy Ecofys» Climate ranking for G8 countries (based on the core benchmark that countries implement enough measures to reduce emissions by at least 80% by 2050)» Countries performance in the areas energy efficiency, renewable energy and carbon markets» Evaluation for G8+5 countries (Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South-Africa) 03. July 2008, Page 2

4 THE SCORECARD CRITERIA» Improvements since 1990, weighted 33% Emission trend between 1990 and 2005 Distance to Kyoto Target» Current status, weighted 33% Emissions per capita CO 2 per kwh electricity» Policies for the future, weighted 34% Renewables Transport -2.5 to to to July 2008, Page 3

5 THE RANKING G8 COUNTRIES TOO SLOW IN RACE AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE (1/2) 1 st UK: Likely to reach Kyoto target but very low renewable energy share 2 nd France: Low emissions for industrialised country, based mainly on nuclear, emissions projected to increase 3 rd Germany: Best perfomer on renewable energy but high dependence on coal 4 th Italy: Relatively low emissions rates, but above Kyoto level 5 th Japan: Relatively low emission rates, but above Kyoto level, good on energy efficiency but no national mandatory emission reduction 03. July 2008, Page 4

6 THE RANKING G8 COUNTRIES TOO SLOW IN RACE AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE (2/2) 6 th Russia: High use of gas but low efficiency and no national policies implemented 7 th Canada: Very high and still increasing per capita emissions, existing plan to curb emissions not implemented 8 th US: Highest absolute emissions, high dependence on coal and oil, no effective federal policies» Scorecards also analyze Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South-Africa but without ranking» Results reveal great differences between the countries in terms of development, energy mix and resulting emissions 03. July 2008, Page 5

7 The Ranking G8 Climate Scorecards Dr. Niklas Höhne The G8 Summit in Hokkaido Regine Günther Financial Services: Response to Climate Change Dr. Joachim Faber 03. July 2008, Page 6

8 CONCLUSION FROM THE G8 CLIMATE SCORECARDS G8 countries do not implement enough measures to stay within the 2 C limit» Absolute emissions do not decrease fast enough, but still increase» Carbon markets regulation needs to be more effective» Better energy efficiency policies is needed» Renewables lack broad political support in G8 (some positive exceptions e.g. Germany) G8 need to support the vision of a low carbon economy 03. July 2008, Page 7

9 G8 HAVE RESPONSIBILITY TO SHOW LEADERSHIP» Emission reductions announced in Hokkaido are crucial to set the path ensuring global warming is kept below 2 C» G8 must commit to emission cuts 25 to 40% below 1990 by 2020» Long Term pledge to cut emissions by at least 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels» International cooperation with the G8+5 countries through technology transfer and financing Mt Co 2 eq. Historical development of the CO 2 emissions Displays CO 2 emissions of the G8 countries since July 2008, Page 8

10 The Ranking G8 Climate Scorecards Dr. Niklas Höhne The G8 Summit in Hokkaido Regine Günther Financial Services: Response to Climate Change Dr. Joachim Faber 03. July 2008, Page 9

11 COUNTRIES NEED TO CREATE MORE STABILITY EU MUST SHOW LEADERSHIP» A global climate regime to provide long-term planning reliability Allianz supports an EU 30% reduction objective by 2020» Efficient and transparent market mechanisms are necessary to promote private sector engagement given high economic costs» Statefunds (SWFs) should engage in renewable energy technologies financing» A carbon price is required globally. Allianz supports 100% auctioning after 2012 in European Emissions Trading System Global carbon market is an important element to develop the potential for a low carbon economy 03. July 2008, Page 10

12 THE EU HAS BECOME THE MAJOR CARBON MARKET» The European Emissions Trading System was worth around 28 billion EUR equaling 1.6 billion tons of carbon traded in 2007 (+ 55% over 2006)» In 2007 the primary CDM market amounted to around 12 billion EUR or 950 million tons of carbon (+ 200% over 2006)» The voluntary carbon market was only worth about 100 million USD in the year 2006, multiple standards create problems Daily price index of the European Climate Exchange (EEX) for one emission allowance Prices display forward contracts for one emission allowance with due dates on December 2008, 2009 and Demand for carbon projects is set to rise significantly with new trading systems becoming operational in the next years Source: New Energy Finance, IMF, SEFI, UNFCCC, World Bank 03. July 2008, Page 11

13 INVESTORS HAVE A ROLE IN THE SHIFT TO THE LOW CARBON ECONOMY» A shift to a low carbon economy by 2020, total clean energy investments have to reach 2,000 billion and investments by SRI funds 4,000 billion USD Global Clean Energy Investments, $ billion 2,000 SRI Funds*, $ billion 4,000» Investors should create a pull for analysts to explicitly build the impacts of climate change into their valuation models» Investors should engage in creating financing mitigation and adaptation mechanisms. Currently suggested climate bonds look promising and need closer investigation Cumulative total clean energy investment required ( )** Cumulative total abatement investment required ( )** Financial industry acts as a facilitator for transition Source: New Energy Finance, IMF, SEFI, UNFCCC, McKinsey * SRI funds are for US and Europe only and may also include socially responsible investments outside the domain of climate change, e.g. microfinance etc. ** Investments include both debt and equity 03. July 2008, Page 12

14 Backup This document has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. All charts and graphs are from publicly available sources or proprietary data. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of this document. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. The issuance of and details contained in this document, does not constitute an offer or solicitation for, or advice that you should enter into, the purchase or sale of any security, commodity or other investment product or investment agreement, or any other contract, agreement or structure whatsoever. This document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. 03. July 2008, Page 13

15 RENEWABLE ENERGY PLAYS A VITAL ROLE IN MEETING THE EU S LONG-TERM EMISSION TARGETS» Global investment in clean energy reached billion USD in 2007 (+ 44% over 2006)» In order to raise the EU s share of renewable energies to 20% by 2020, investments of 443 billion EUR are expected ( )» The highest investments and growth rates will occur in wind and solar energy, while growth in biomass and geothermal power * will be notable» Market development are facilitated by comprehensive financial solutions including insurance, financing, equity and asset management Billion EUR Projected investment in RE in Europe ( ) Wind Solar-heat Biomass Photovoltaics 76 Σ = 443 Billion 20 Hydropower 11 Geo-thermal Sources: EREC, IEA * including tidal and wave power 03. July 2008, Page 14

16 ALLIANZ COMMITMENT TO SUSTAINABILITY Our climate strategy is to reduce our CO2 emissions by 20% by 2012:» In Munich location: 1,450 tons of CO2 emissions saved through the reuse of waste heat from a nearby computing center Our efforts for sustainable developments are recognized by independent ratings:» Last ten years: share of train travel for business trips has risen from 6% to 23%» Reduction of paper use in the last ten years, from 700 kg to 209 kg per employee per year» Use of hybrid automobiles in Australia and natural gas vehicles in the UK 03. July 2008, Page 15