ALPCHECK2 ALPINE MOBILITY CHECK STEP 2. AlpCheck2 A Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia Final Report

Transcription

1 ALPCHECK2 ALPINE MOBILITY CHECK STEP 2 AlpCheck2 A Implementation of the dispersion Model in Slovenia Final Report Date: November 2011

2 Main Authors: OMEGA consult Ltd.: Cveto Gregorc, MSc Phys. Robert Rupar, MSc Econ. Miha Klun, BEcon. Špela Železnikar, MSc Env. Mgt. Nina Jurešič, BEng Geol. Andreja Cundrič, Ph.D. Contributions: OMEGA consult Ltd.: Matjaž Oberžan, BEcon. Elvis Testen, BSc (Eng.)Transp. Vera Bjelica, BBA Rado Osredkar, BPol.Sc. Grega Boštjančič, BE Comp.Sc.

3 ALPCHECK2 CONSORTIUM Leader Partner: VENETO Veneto Region (Regional Secretariat for Infrastructures - Logistics Unit) Partner 1: RAVA Regione Autonoma Valle d'aosta - Direzione servizi antincendio e di soccorso Partner 2: CARINZIA Carinthia Regional Government Administration (Department 7 - Common Law and Infrastructure) Partner 3: TCI TCI Röhling Transport Consulting International Partner 4: ERSAF Ente Regionale per i Servizi all' Agricoltura e alle Foreste:Regione Lombardia Partner 5: VPA Venice Port Authority Partner 6: MATTM Ministry of Environment, Sea and Land Protection of Italy Partner 7: OBB Board of Building and Public Works within the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior Partner 8: CETE MED A Technical Study and Engineering Centre Partner 9: MSLO Republic of Slovenia, Ministry of Transport, Slovene Roads Agency

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION IMPLEMENTATION OF DISPERSION MODEL IN SLOVENIA DISPERSION MODEL Presentation of SoundPlan air pollution modules Characteristics of pollutants NO PM CO EXAMPLE OF DISPERSION CALCULATION Input data Geographic data Pollutant emissions Meteorology data Results in SoundPlan ESI AND DISPERSION LITERATURE...17

5 1 INTRODUCTION AlpCheck2 is a continuation of the international project for the area of the Alpine region in the framework of the INTERREG IIIB that finished in It is an international project with the Slovenian participation. The main objectives of the project are modelling of traffic flows of heavy goods vehicles in the Alpine region and impacts of these vehicles on the environment of the Alpine region. Slovenia participates in both key stages. Slovenian Roads Agency carries out activities of the following work packages: WP4 - transport system for decision support: preparation of the transport model for the Alpine area, simulation of future scenarios of supply and demand, obtaining data for future road network; WP5 - Environmental impact assessment: data acquisition and preparation, participation in the implementation model for the assessment of environmental impacts. In this report implementation of dispersion model in Slovenia (as part of WP5) is presented. 1

6 2 IMPLEMENTATION OF DISPERSION MODEL IN SLOVENIA 2.1 DISPERSION MODEL The methodology for calculating dispersion was obtained from the French partner. We have also done our own research and literature review on dispersion, collected data and tested the calculations with our test model. A more detailed overview of activities is given below. A dispersion model is a mathematical simulation, which shows us how pollutants disperse in the environment. Dispersion models are implemented by computer programs that solve mathematical equations and algorithms that simulate the dispersion of pollutants. These models are used to estimate or forecast the direction of the wind, concentration of pollutants or toxic emissions from sources such as industrial plants, traffic or accidental chemical releases. Such models are a useful tool for assessing the impacts on air quality. There are quite a few dispersion programs sold, but they each have their limitations and uncertainties. OMEGA consult calculates dispersion with the 7.0 SoundPlan Programme that supports the modelling of air pollution dispersion, while the French partner uses ADMS Programme. Both, Slovene and French models were tested and compared. The results of both models (created with different software programmes) showed similar results, therefore we used the 7.0 SoundPlan Programme for creating a dispersion model in Slovenia Presentation of SoundPlan air pollution modules SoundPLAN is a software suite created by professionals in noise and air pollution engineering for professionals working with noise and air pollution scenarios. The software specializes in computer simulations of noise and air pollution situations. For air quality simulations, SoundPLAN has many different models, ranging from Gauss models to complex hydraulic flow and dispersion models. The software was tested on actual projects. SoundPLAN enables efficiency at work by offering templates for graphics, tables and spreadsheets, and by hosting all acoustics and air pollution relevant data in libraries that can be shared between users. Importing and exporting data in various formats makes it easy to reuse data from external sources. Many planning processes require calculations for noise emissions and air pollution dispersion. SoundPLAN has a uniform software interface for both types of calculations so it can be used in both areas of expertise. 2

7 SoundPLAN offers three air pollution models, with 3 different approaches and 3 different levels of precision. Typical air pollution dispersion questions can be answered using one or a combination of these 3 methods. Rough Screening with Gauss (TA Luft86). The Gauss-model of the old German standard TA Luft86 is suitable for approximate calculations; Rough Screening or Fine Screening with Austal2000. This model of the German standard TA Luft 02 can as well be used for approximate studies as for fine screening (diagnostic wind field, Lagrange dispersion model); Fine-Screening with MISKAM. The established, validated and recommended model is ideal for detailed studies, when air movements around buildings have a dominant influence on the wind field (prognostic wind field, Eulerian dispersion model). For our example dispersion was calculated with the method of Rough Screening or Fine Screening with Austal2000, due to the size of observed test area. In the year 2002 TA Luft 86 was replaced by the new standard TA Luft 02, which favours a diagnostic wind field and a Lagrange model to calculate the air pollution dispersion. The reference Model AUSTAL2000 was developed for the German Environmental Agency. Its advantage is that it calculates a wind field, which can regard terrain up to an inclination of 20%. The Austal2000 user interface is very poor, based on ASCII-input-textfiles and ASCII-outputtextfiles. The SoundPLAN interface is used instead, in order to work in a comfortable program environment Characteristics of pollutants The focus was on three most harmful pollutants from car exhausts: NO 2, PM 10 and CO NO 2 NO2 is generated primarily through emissions from combustion sources such as vehicles. NO2 and other nitrogen oxides have direct health impacts, such as respiratory damage and premature death, and also contribute to the formation of ground-level ozone and fine particulates, two other significant criteria air pollutants. 3

8 There is evidence of positive and generally robust associations between ambient NO2 concentrations and risk of nonaccidental and cardiopulmonary mortality for short-term exposures. For long-term exposures, science remains limited, making definitive conclusions difficult. People who are likely to be more vulnerable to exposure to nitrogen oxides include children, the elderly, people who already have respiratory problems, and people who spend much time on and near busy roadways (including those in buildings near such roads). The current Environmental Protection Agency's (US) standard is 100 micrograms per cubic meter. The World Health Organization guideline is much lower, at 40 ug/m3, same as in the Regulation on ambient air quality. The WHO also has a short-term, 1-hour guideline of 200 ug/m3 (source: WHO website, 2011) PM10 PM affects more people than any other pollutant. The major components of PM are sulphate, nitrates, ammonia, sodium chloride, carbon, mineral dust and water. It consists of a complex mixture of solid and liquid particles of organic and inorganic substances suspended in the air. The particles are identified according to their aerodynamic diameter, e.g. PM10 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 µm). Particles can be carried over long distances by wind and then settle on ground or water. The effects of this settling include: making lakes and streams acidic; changing the nutrient balance in coastal waters and large river basins; depleting the nutrients in soil; damaging sensitive forests and farm crops; and affecting the diversity of ecosystems Particle pollution - especially fine particles - contains microscopic solids or liquid droplets that are so small that they can get deep into the lungs and cause serious health problems. Numerous scientific studies have linked particle pollution exposure to a variety of problems, including: increased respiratory symptoms, such as irritation of the airways, coughing, or difficulty breathing, for example; decreased lung function; aggravated asthma; development of chronic bronchitis; irregular heartbeat; nonfatal heart attacks; and premature death in people with heart or lung disease. 4

9 People with heart or lung diseases, children and older adults are the most likely to be affected by particle pollution exposure. However, even if you are healthy, you may experience temporary symptoms from exposure to elevated levels of particle pollution. The effects of PM on health occur at levels of exposure currently being experienced by most urban populations. Chronic exposure to particles contributes to the risk of developing cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, as well as of lung cancer. The mortality in cities with high levels of pollution exceeds that observed in relatively cleaner cities by 15 20% CO2 Climate change or global warming impacts of transport are mainly caused by emissions of the greenhouse gases CO 2, N 2 O and CH 4. Road transport contributes about one-fifth of the EU's total emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the main greenhouse gas. While emissions from other sectors are generally falling, those from road transport have continued to increase since Eager to tackle climate change, the European Commission has a comprehensive strategy designed to help the EU reach its long-established objective of limiting average CO 2 emissions from new cars to 120 grams per km by Climate change impacts have a special position in external cost assessment as: climate change is a global issue so that the impact of emissions is not dependent on the location of emissions; greenhouse gases, especially CO2, have a long lifetime in the atmosphere so that present emissions contribute to impacts in the distant future; especially the long-term impacts of continued emissions of greenhouse gases are difficult to predict but potentially catastrophic. As mentioned in the report, regarding the WP4, CO 2 -emissions are not covered by the Eurovignette Directive 2011 because of the global dimension of climate change. However, the Commission explicitly announced in its proposal to reassess this position and possibly allow the inclusion of a CO 2 -charging element in tolls at a later date, should progress in defining a common fuel tax element related to climate change in the Energy Taxation Directive 2003/96/EC not be satisfactory. Until then Member States are prevented from including the external costs of CO 2 -emissions into external-cost charges. 5

10 2.2 EXAMPLE OF DISPERSION CALCULATION The location for the calculation of air pollution dispersion from road exhausts was chosen randomly, in an area only a few kilometres south west of the capital city. The representative observed road is a motorway by-pass road with the speed limit of 130 km/h. The green square represents the 3x3m observation area, which was considered for the calculation. Figure 2.1: Location of the project (test area) (Picture: OMEGA consult, 2011) Input data Prior to the calculation in SoundPlan with AUSTAL2000 method, it was necessary to prepare the input data. Information on the geographical location of the project, pollutant emissions (CO 2, NO x and PM 10 ) and meteorological data were needed as inputs for the calculation. The settlements near the observed road were not considered due to the fact that this is a bypass road and there aren't many houses nearby. 6

11 Geographic data The geographic data used for determining the calculation area were: Calculation area size = 3x3 km, Length of the motorway ( within the calculation area) = 3,259 km, Slope of the terrain > 20%. Soundplan only enables calculations on a 3x3 m area. Location of the area was randomly picked outside the capital city. Figure 2.2 shows the image of the terrain as can be seen in SoundPlan. Below is the motorway, blue cubes are buildings and houses and lifted part is a nearby gentle slope. Figure 2.2: Geographic data on the terrain as seen in SoundPlan (Source: OMEGA consult, 2011) 7

12 Pollutant emissions In order to calculate dispersion pollutant emissions (PM, NO x and CO 2 ) had to be determined. For this purpose HBEFA methodology was used. The Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA) provides emission factors for all current vehicle categories (PC, LDV, HGV, urban buses, coaches and motor cycles), each divided into different categories, for a wide variety of traffic situations. Emission factors for all regulated and the most important non-regulated pollutants as well as fuel consumption and CO2 are included. The Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA) was originally developed on behalf of the Environmental Protection Agencies of Germany, Switzerland and Austria, but is now widely used in other European countries as well as the JRC (Research Center of the European Commission). Each road section of the core network has its own pollutant traffic emissions. The data, which was used in HBEFA, are given in Tables below. Table 2.1: Road technical data Project name Section number Area LOS Road** Max allowed speed[km/h] Length of considered section [km] AC2_1a Urban Freeflow* MW-Nat ,259 AC2_1a Urban Freeflow MW-Nat ,259 * free flowing conditions, low and steady traffic flow. ** type of road; MW-Nat is a motorway 2x2 lanes, grade separated Table 2.2: Traffic AADT in 2008 Project Year Section number vv1- personal vehicles vv3 - buses vv4 - LGV vv4t- HGV Total AC2_1a AC2_1a The Austrian vehicle fleet is used in the HBEFA methodology. Using the information in Tables 2.1 and 2.2 emissions on the road section were calculated. Table 2.3: Pollutant emissions on road sections 0052 and 0652 Section CO 2(total) [g/km] NOx [g/km] PM [g/km] , , , , , ,9 8

13 Meteorology data Meteorology data was obtained from the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for the period of 10 years. Data contain information on the observation year, speed of the wind, direction of the wind and the average number of hours the wind blew in certain direction at certain speed in the territory of the observed area. Data on the wind measurements above 10 m could not be obtained. Table 2.4: Average number of hours of wind blowing at a certain speed and in certain direction (10-year cumulative data) Direction angle [ ] Wind speed [m/s] v <= < v <= < v <= < v <= < v <= < v <= As shown in the wind rose in Figure 2.3, the most commonly wind blew at a speed below 3 m/s and in the direction from 15 to 80 degrees, averaging at 45 degrees. Very strong winds above 12.0 m/s or higher were not recorded in the 10 year period. Figure 2.3: Wind Rose (Source: OMEGA consult, 2011) 9

14 All described data was imported in the SoundPlan programme and calculated with the AUSTAL2000 method Results in SoundPlan Graphical presentations of the results are given separately for each pollutant. Figure 2.4: Mean year concentration for CO 2 (Source: OMEGA consult, 2011) Figure 2.4 shows the result of the dispersion model in the project area for mean yearly concentration of CO 2. SoundPlan calculated that very high levels of CO 2 are present on or directly by the observed road. Since the pollutant is relatively heavy it is not dispersed widely away from the road. The highest CO 2 concentrations occur very close to the exhaust area. The green belt shows the area where smaller concentrations of CO 2 can be detected, whereas the light yellow area indicates CO 2 dispersion with a concentration below 4500 µg/m 3. 10

15 Figure 2.5: Mean year concentration for PM 10 (Source: OMEGA consult, 2011) Figure 2.5 shows the result of the dispersion model in the project area for mean yearly concentration of PM 10. SoundPlan demonstrates that the highest concentrations of PM 10 occur in the direct vicinity of the road. The rest is dispersed in the surrounding area PM 10 particles are not as heavy as CO 2, therefore they are more easily dispersed. Also the level of concentration is much lower than that of CO 2 as we see from the legend. Despite the low concentration of PM10 particles in µg/m 3, they are dispersed widely in the area (marked yellow). However, even small amounts of this pollutant can be harmful to human health. 11

16 Figure 2.6: Mean year concentration for NOx (Source: OMEGA consult, 2011) Figure 2.6 shows the result of the dispersion model in the project area for mean yearly concentration of NO X. SoundPlan demonstrates that like with the other pollutants, the highest concentrations of NO X occur on or by the road. The rest is dispersed in the surrounding area. NO X particles are not as heavy as CO 2, therefore they are more easily dispersed. However, they are also more harmful for the health. NO X is dispersed a bit more widely than PM 10. NO X particles do not present a direct threat to the local inhabitants living by the motorway in the sense that only minimum amounts reach the nearest nearby houses. 12

17 2.3 ESI AND DISPERSION In order to be able to evaluate the effects of dispersion on the environment, we joined two graphic layers on the example of Slovenia. Firstly we covered the country with the environmental sensitivity index (ESI) - hexagon grid (1m sides), which determines the sensitivity of certain areas based on social and environmental indicators. The results of dispersion for the observed area from SoundPlan were applied to ESI results (Figure 2.7) in order to determine the degree of sensitivity of the dispersed area. Figure 2.7: Observed dispersion and ESI results (Source: OMEGA consult, 2011) ESI sensitivity classes were set according to class limits, which are represented by the calculated ESI values: ESI Sensitivity classes 1 resilient area less sensitive area sensitive area very sensitive area extremely sensitive area

18 The Regulation on ambient air quality (Official Journal of RS, nr.9/2011) determines the limit value, for pollutants PM 10 and NO 2, within which they do not pose a direct threat to human health and this is at 40 µg/m 3. The limit for CO 2 is not determined, therefore following results include analysis for NO 2 and PM 10. The result of NO X dispersion from SoundPlan was converted into NO 2 and attributed limit values 40 µg/m 3 (according to the Regulation). The same procedure was used for PM 10 pollutant. Conversion from NO X to NO 2 was made in the SoundPlan programme using this formula: [NO 2 ] = [NO X ] * (103 / ([NO X ]+130)+0,005) Figure 2.8: Result of NO 2 dispersion in the observed area (Source: OMEGA consult, 2011) The legend in Figure 2.8 is designed in line with the allowed limit values for NO 2. As shown in the picture, the red area on and around the observed road exceeds the limit concentration values, while smaller concentrations (<40 µg/m 3 ) are spread all over the observed 3x3 m area (light yellow). 14

19 Figure 2.9: Result of PM 10 dispersion in the observed area (Source: OMEGA consult, 2011) The legend in Figure 2.9 is also in line with the allowed limit values for PM 10 in the Regulation on ambient air quality. As shown in the picture, PM 10 is nowhere too heavily concentrated (exceeding 40 µg/m 3 ), but is dispersed in the area (light yellow, between 0 and 40 µg/m 3 ), although not as widely as NO X. The reason for this can also be seen from comparing the concentration values for PM 10 and NO X in Figures 3.5 and 3.6. We can see that PM10 concentrations in µg/m 3 are from times lower than NO X (NO 2 ) concentrations. Figure 2.10 shows the effect of the higher concentrated pollutant NO 2 in the observed area. According to the ESI calculation, the yellow marked area is classified as sensitive (ESI values from ). NO2 dispersion (mesh) spreads over the sensitive area, but its concentration is the highest directly on and by the road. 15

20 ESI Sensitivity classes 1 resilient area less sensitive area sensitive area very sensitive area extremely sensitive area Figure 2.10: NO 2 dispersion in relation to environmental sensitivity of the observed area (Source: OMEGA consult, 2011) 16

21 3 LITERATURE 1. World health organisation website; Programmes: HBEFA 3.1: Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport 7.0 SoundPlan 17