Tourism and Climate Change Policies for Mitigation and Adaptation

Transcription

1 Tourism and Climate Change Policies for Mitigation and Adaptation Stefan Gössling Dept. of Service Management, Lund University, Sweden School of Business and Economics at Linnaeus University, Sweden Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism, Western Norway Research Institute Workshop on sustainable development strategies and tourism, 18 June 2010, OECD, Paris

2 Tourism is affected by climate change and a significant contributor to climate change

3 Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008

4 Emerging climate change adaptation policies Australia: Tourism and climate change a framework for action Austria: Awareness raising; participation in the national research programme on climate change Caribbean: comprehensive climate change vulnerability assessment ongoing France: Research on the impact of climate change on tourism, adjustment and associated costs Germany: Guidelines to review of how to turn challenges into opportunities Ireland: Climate Change, Heritage and Tourism Implications for Irelands Coast and inland waterways Norway: Investigated adaptation needs for a range of sectors. New Zealand: Strategic plan for tourism and CC United Kingdom: England South West, Awareness raising campaign

5 Conclusions adaptation policy Few governments develop adaptation policies specifically for tourism (full review in progress) Political interest in adaptation and financial resources allocated to identifying adaptation needs (and policies) not always high. Undoubtedly need to develop tourism adaptation policies in coordinated, though destination-specific way. Adaptation policy is about much more than costing and financing, establishing incentives is also critical (OECD 2009)

6 Tourism as a contributor to emissions: CO 2, in 2005 Sub-Sectors CO 2 (Mt) Air transport * % Car transport % Other transport 39 3% Accommodation % Activities 52 4% TOTAL 1,307 Total World (IPCC 2007) 26,400 Transportation of Tourists = 75% of Sector Emissions * - does not include non-co 2 emissions and impact on climate. Tourism Contribution 4.95% Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008; Scott et al. 2010

7 CO 2 only vs. radiative forcing (RF), 2005 * Rounded, AIC: aviation induced clouds Source: Scott et al Tourism contribution to global warming: %

8 Mt CO2 Business as Usual Projection of Future CO 2 Emissions from Tourism % 32% 21% 52% 16% 25% 4% 7% Air Transport Car Transport Other Transport Accommodation Activities * Excluding same-day visitors Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008

9 Emissions from tourism and global reduction needs Global emission pathways versus unrestricted tourism emissions growth, including energy efficiency improvements as in UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008). Source: Peeters, 2009

10 Climate policy goals Source: Scott et al. (2010)

11 Economics of mitigation Essential to focus on all GHG, not only CO 2, because cost-increase for mitigation otherwise substantial Exempting emission-intense industries will significantly increase future abatement costs All countries need to be part of reducing emissions Source: OECD 2009

12 Policy mix necessary 1. Market-based approaches 2. Regulations and standards 3. Research & Development 4. Information-based instruments to facilitate consumer choices Note that many policies do not apply specifically for tourism, because it is a highly fragmented sector, rather than consumption more generally.

13 1. Market-based approaches Removing perverse energy subsidies (10% by 2050*) Emission trading (-50% in Annex I countries by 2050) Taxes (huge potential, but depending on price levels) *based on OECD 2009

14 EU ETS (and other emission trading schemes) Production-oriented, so little impact on consumption in many areas Not ambitious - no significant impact? (e.g. over-allocation in first trading period ) Open, i.e. cheap imports possible through CDM EU ETS for aviation: 10% reduction by 2020, but grandfathering for 85% of credits, and open trading option. ( 3/1,000 pkm at permit prices of 25 per ton of CO 2 ; Scott et al. 2010)

15 Taxes for aviation Currently mostly duties, which have distortive effects, carbon tax superior Carbon tax needs to be comparably high, possibly in the order of 300/t CO 2, to have significant impact (cf. Mayor and Tol 2007, 2010) Taxes in OECD countries on fuel (cars) have had effect of significantly reducing fuel use! (Sterner 2007)

16 Decline in arrivals because of EU ETS? Yes in relative terms, no in absolute terms Source: Gössling et al. 2008

17 2. Regulation and Standards Building codes Electrical appliance standards... Purchase standards (e.g. FSC)? REDD? OECD (2009): create forest carbon market that is separate from other markets

18 3. Research & Development Considerable potential, but: Relying on R&D policy alone (in the absence of a carbon price) would not be enough to reduce emissions sufficiently (OECD 2009:21)

19 Energy Intensity EI (MJ/ask) The case of aviation Long haul aircraft fuel efficiency 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 Penner et al. (1999) Best fit regression A380 Piston powered airliners B787 1,0 0,5 0, Year of market introduction Source: UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008) While observed and expected efficiency gains are in the order of % per year, passenger growth is 4% per year.

20 Biofuels - uncertainties Which biofuel? Jatropha, algae,...? Substitutability of Jet A? Energy-input versus energy-output? Emission output compared to Jet A? Area use? Costs compared to Jet A?

21 4. Information-based instruments

22 Mandatory carbon labelling? Bonus/malus systems?

23 Climate change policies for mitigation Australia: carbon assessment of tourism sector Costa Rica: strives to become carbon neutral by 2021 Finland: monitoring and evaluation with a focus on transport-related issues France: promotion of green travel Ireland: Carbon Strategy Document Korea: initiatives to promote low carbon green growth in tourism Maldives: national goal to become carbon neutral by 2019 Norway: strives to reduce emissions by 40% by 2020, including all sectors. New Zealand: development of tools to assist tourism businesses to measure and reduce their carbon footprint Sweden: sustainable solutions for addressing climate change United Kingdom: CO 2 emission reduction by 60% by 2050 law; Developing low carbon strategies, tools to reduce emissions already implemented (England South West)

24 Integrating tourism policy throughout Global National Regional Organizational Business UNFCCC 20% (EU) -100% (Maldives) Regional visitors (S&F, Norw.) International Air Passenger Adaptation Levy -IAPAL- Business (CCX, Aspen/USA)

25 Conclusions Global mitigation policy (Kyoto Protocol and its mechanisms) faces a number of problems (sufficient number of countries need to be signatory, structure of NAPs, additionality of CDM projects, etc.) Tougher mitigation policies are needed globally and nationally, based on a policy mix (Mitigation policies are wanted by business!) National policy frameworks are emerging, but slowly and uncoordinated

26 Thank you for your attention!