Designing a sustainable business case. Patricia Osseweijer, Department of Biotechnology, Faculty of Applied Sciences

Transcription

1 Designing a sustainable business case Patricia Osseweijer, Department of Biotechnology, Faculty of Applied Sciences

2 Drivers for transi2on to Biobased Economy Economic: variable prices of fossil fuel resources PoliCcal: energy security Environmental: lowering net GHG emissions Demographic: rising populacon and wealth Agricultural: rural income and economic development Food: add sustainable value to food chain

3 Petrochemical Carbon cycle sunlight photosynthesis!me: 10 million year!me: year geological processes recovery biomass CO 2 geological reservoirs oil combuscon fuels/chemicals refinery chemical industry Adapted from: Pronk, 2008

4 Renewables sunlight photosynthesis geological processes biomass CO 2 geological reservoirs combuscon recovery Cycle Cme = 1-4 year Balance in carbon cycle! oil refinery chemical industry fuels/chemicals Adapted from: Pronk, 2008

5 Renewables sunlight biomass CO 2 photosynthesis Biorefinery combuscon Cycle Cme = 1-4 year Balance in carbon cycle! sugars Industrial Biotechnology biofuels/chemicals Adapted from: Pronk, 2008

6 Biomass u2lisa2on CO 2 Biofuels Food & Feed agro-emissions (run-offs, N 2 O) nutrients Biochemicals & Paints Biomaterials & plasccs Biopharma- ceuccals

7 Mass composi2on & energy density of raw material and products global produc2on (MT/year) Fuels 2000 (jet 300) Cement 3000 (600 MT CO 2 ) Food 4000 (30-50% waste) Glass 120 PlasCcs 280 Steel 120 (200 MT CO 2 ) C natural gas crude oil CO 2 new products drop- outs? biomass O Sugars, laccc ethanol subsctutes drop- ins fuels & polymers Energy density increases H Adapted from: van der Wielen, van Breugel, 2011

8 Cost contribu2on of feedstock feedstocks product yield products methane $1600/ton $660/ton crude oil 0.25 jetfuel/diesel! p-xylene $1200/ton palmitic acid 0.3! butanol $400/ton $ */ton $6/ton 0.34! 0.4! lignine! 0.5! glycerol sugars! biomass! 1.0! only established market: CO2! APEX ENDEX Woodpellets ~ $130*/ton 1.1! Adapted from: van der Wielen, 2011 ethanol methanol! propionic acid! syngas succinic acid citric acid CO2, Bioconstruction $800/ton $400/ton $402/ton

9 Cascade Model Biomass for high value products Pharma & fine chemicals Food & Feed Residues for high volume products Bulk chemicals & Performance materials Biofuels & Bioenergy

10 Inves2ga2ng process routes Adapted from: M. Villafranca, P. Osseweijer, 2014

11 Crea2ng a business case Business Case Strategic Insights Economic Model CompeCtor Analysis Market input Volume development Sales price levels Target customers Regulatory affairs Market segments Product seleccons Environmentally efficient! Technology Input CAPEX & OPEX escmates Scalability (pilot) IP proteccon Reactor / DSP choices Process development Adapted from: van Breugel 2013, Corbion

12 Overall impact analysis LogisCcs? Social impacts? Nutrient Recycling? Energy efficiency? (eco) Safety aspects? ProducCon Pre- treatment Processing PDO by- products Soil quality? Water usage? Economic performance Environmental impact Social impact Wastewater? Solid waste? Due diligence for industry deployment

13 Evalua2on Criteria PPP (People- planet- profit) concept: Weakness in any of these may lead to a no- go People Bearable Equitable Planet Sustainable Viable Profit TradiConally: quancficacon of economics Nowadays: quancficacon of environmental impact (Life Cycle Analysis) Future: quancficacon of social impact; Risk Assessment is already mandatory

14 Star2ng a business Venture capital 300 opportunices / year 60 opportunices / year 30 opportunices / year 12 opportunices / year 4 opportunices / year First screening Deep screening Quick scan Comprehensive due diligence Adapted from: van Breugel 2013, Corbion

15 Stages in process/product design iterate 1. IdenCficaCon task and constraints (design definicon) 2. CollecCng knowledge 3. GeneraCon of alternacves (Synthesis) 4. Analysis of alternacves 5. SelecCon / evaluacon of alternacves 6. ReporCng 7. Go / no- go

16 See you next unit