A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON GLOBAL CARBON EMISSION INEQUALITY: INSIGHTS FROM A GLOBAL INTERPERSONAL CARBON GINI-INDEX

Transcription

1 A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON GLOBAL CARBON EMISSION INEQUALITY: INSIGHTS FROM A GLOBAL INTERPERSONAL CARBON GINI-INDEX Presented By: Tianpeng Wang Institute of Energy Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University

2 Introduction Global emissions inequality is a debate related to abatement responsibility Emissions inequality research mainly falls into two categories Emissions inequality across countries: Developed vs Developing Emissions inequality across persons: Rich vs Poor Global interpersonal emissions inequality Consider emissions inequality both from across countries view and across persons view Global Interpersonal Carbon Inequality

3 Introduction emission Traditional methods to measure carbon inequality Carbon Lorenz curve and carbon Gini-index Atkinson Index Theil s entropy measure. Concepts related to emission Production based emissions vs Consumption based emissions Influence of transferred emissions on global interpersonal emissions status Main focus in our study: emissions from household consumption and total emissions population

4 Methods Figure 1. Summary of the methodology process Fit income distribution curve of various countries Build the relationship between income and emission based on literature and some assumptions Construct different countries emissions distribution curve combined with emissions data Aggregate emission distribution curves of all the countries Construct the global Lorenz curve and calculate the global carbon Gini-index

5 Methods: Fit income distribution curve of various countries 2-gamma fitting method F( x) N * r * G( x, a, b * I) N *(1 r )* G( x, a, b * I) * ( a) x a 1 b G( x, a, b) x e a b Lognormal fitting method Gini 2* ( 1) 2 I e 2 ( ) 2 Data needed: (1) Income distribution data (2) GDP per capital data (3) Income Gini-index of different countries Data source: World Development Indicator (WDI) World Income Inequality database (WIID)

6 Methods: Build the relationship between income and emissions based on literature and some assumptions Country Variable 1 Variable 2 Year Elasticities Income Household CO2 emission Income Energy consumption Australia Expenditures Household CO2 emission Expenditures Energy consumption Expenditures Energy consumption Brazil Expenditures Energy consumption Income Energy consumption Denmark Income Household CO2 emission Expenditures Energy consumption India Expenditures Energy consumption Income Household CO2 emission Japan Expenditures Energy consumption Netherland Income Energy consumption Expenditures Energy consumption New Zealand Expenditures Energy consumption Norway Expenditures Energy consumption Spain Expenditures Household CO2 emission Income Household CO2 emission United States Expenditures Household CO2 emission Expenditures Energy consumption Expenditures Household CO2 emission South Africa Income Electricity consumption China Income Household CO2 emission United Kingdom Income Household CO2 emission Philippines Income Household CO2 emission 2000& Finland Income GHG emission Income Energy consumption C ( x) Classification x A Elasticities Developed countries Developing countries LDC Production based emission data: EDGAR database and CAIT database. Emission from household consumption: multiregional input output model (MRIO) based on the GTAP9 database in year and 2011.

7 Methods: Construct different countries emission distribution and global Lorenz curve Figure 2. Emission distribution curve and global carbon Lorenz curve

8 Results: Global interpersonal Gini-index trend (production based emission) Figure 3. Variance trend of global interpersonal carbon Gini-index

9 Results: Global CO2 emission distribution curve and emissions migration

10 Results: Comparison of production based and residential consumption based global emission inequality Figure 4. The proportion of emission from residential consumption in total consumption based emission China United States India EU27 World Developed country Developing country Table 2. the comparsion of global interpersonal carbon Gini-index Year Gini-index of production based emission (interpersonal) Gini-index of residential consumption based emission (interpersonal) Gini-index of production based emission (intercountry) Gini-index of residential consumption based emission (inter-country)

11 Figure 5. The proportion of emission respectively from fossil fuel use and household consumption by different income group in total emissions, 2011

12 Results: Sensitivity analysis of income elasticities Figure 5. Influence of unit alteration from different income elasticities on Gini-index based on emission from total fossil fuel consumption and household consumption caused emission

13 Discussion and Limits The value of carbon Gini-index came down from 0.67 in 1980 to 0.59 in 2014 Decline of emission inequality at global scale Mainly because of the narrowing between-groups emission gap The global carbon inequality status is still very severe with Gini-index is around 0.6 in recent years especially from household consumption view. Provides a theoretical basis for the abatement responsibility assignment on interpersonal level rather than on national level across countries Main limits of this research: the rough assumption of relationship between emission and income.

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