What is the Energy of the Future? Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan

Transcription

1 What is the Energy of the Future? Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan April 2015

2 What is the energy of the past? Oil remains by far the main source of world energy, but has lost market share to gas and coal Evolution of world primary energy consumption - Million tons of oil equivalent, 1860 to Coal Natural gas Nuclear Biomass Oil Hydro Wind, solar & geothermal 30% 27% 22% 80% 8% 6% 4% 2% Sources: Shilling et al., 1977, et BP Statistical Review,

3 Isn t coal the energy of the past? Yes it is as it fuelled the industrial revolution during the 18 th century. But it might as well be the energy of the future as it could surpass oil as the most primary energy used by 2030 Coal consumption per capita - Tons of oil equivalent, Electricity production from coal - % of total electricity production, % 45 % 40 % 35 % 30 % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 5 % 1 % 0 % Coal currently provides 40% of the world's electricity needs, accounts for 40% of CO 2 emissions and as much as 60% of CO 2 emissions increase since 2000 Source: World Bank, BP Statistical Review of World Energy

4 What do we use this energy for? Transport is almost exclusively based on oil, while industry relies on massive coal and gas usage World primary energy consumption mix - % of million tons of oil equivalent, Hydroelectricity + Nuclear Energy + Renewables Natural gas 46% 17% 36% 13% 28% 3% 2% 34% 34% 19% 95% 25% 22% Coal 39% 28% 28% Oil 21% 12% 31% Industry* Transport Agriculture, residential, commercial & public service * Including non-energetic use Sources: BP Energy Outlook 2035, IEA 4

5 Exports of good & services (bn $) Why do we use coal for industry? Ask the top 15 exporting countries (who accounts for 80% of exports globally) they probably know the answer 2500 Exports vs. Electricity production from coal - Top 15 exporting countries*, R 2 = 0.7 United States China 1500 Germany 1000 Japan France Italy United Kingdom Belgium Sounth Korea Netherlands 500 India Switzerland Brazil Mexico Spain 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% * Energy exports excluded Source: World Bank Electricity production from coal (% of total electricity production) 5

6 Specific energy Why do we use oil for transport? 1kg of oil contains as much energy as in 100 kg of batteries Energy density of energy vectors used in transport Source : Pierre-René Bauquis, Richard Heinberg Energy density If the building of the Great Pyramid required 10,000 people working for 20 years, then the petroleum based energy used in the US on an average day build 100 Great Pyramids Richard Heinberg 6

7 Extraction in billions of oil barrels per year Are we really running out of fossil fuels? Knowing whether we ll still have fossil fuels in 2100 is not the issue the critical issue is for how long we will have affordable oil to fuel our economy (and our cars..) Liquid fuels extraction simulation to It's not the size of the tank which matters, but the size of the tap Source : Jean-Marie Bourdaire, Patrick Brocorens Jean-Marie Bourdaire 7

8 Oil price (US$/bbl) Do we really need affordable oil to fuel our global economy? Four of the last five global recessions were preceded by an oil shock Economic Recession vs. Oil Price Source: Steven Kopits, June 2009, Douglas Westwood, Oil: What price can America afford?, EIA, NBER 8

9 Breakeven price (US$/bbl) Houston, we have a problem Higher cost new oil projects require $80/bbl+ oil price to be profitable while oil demand (hence GDP per capita) contracts when oil price surpasses $100 in the US and $120 in China Breakeven prices for non-producing oil fields Cumulative peak production (millions barrels per day) Source: Rystad Energy, Morgan Stanley, U.S. Global Investors 9

10 Is shale gas the energy of the future? In the short term maybe in the US with as high as 40% of gas demand in 2013, in the longer term probably not in Europe with only 10% of gas demand in 2030 Bird s eye view of a Texas shale gas field - Click on the image- Source : Google maps 10

11 Is space that important when it comes to energy? Energy surfacic density must be considered when looking at the energy of the future The less space we have, the less choice we have! Energy surfacic density Source: David MacKay, a reality check on renewables 11

12 Mtoe What could be the energy of the future then? Fossil fuels share in primary energy mix will decrease only modestly, from 85% in 2013 to 80% in 2035, the new renewables share increasing from 3% in 2013 to 8% in 2035 Evolution of world primary energy consumption - Million tons of oil equivalent & %, 1965 to Source: BP Energy Outlook

13 Can t we just use renewable energies like our ancestors did in Middle Ages? Countries which inherited large significant forests, hydraulic or geothermal potential might get close to it for others, it will be much more difficult unless consumption significantly decreases 85% Share of renewable energies in primary energy consumption of selected countries , in % - 66% 47% 41% 38% 37% Solar Wind Geothermal & Biomass Biofuels Hydro electric 31% 30% 29% 28% WW average= 9% 23% 20% 19% 16% 11% 9% 9% 7% 6% 6% Primary energy consumption (Mtoe) Iceland Costa Sweden Austria Portugal Finland Spain Germany China United South Rica Kingdom Korea Norway Brazil New Zealand Switzerland Canada Denmark Mtoe figures for power generation are converted on the basis of thermal equivalence assuming 38% conversion efficiency in a modern thermal power station Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, Frost & Sullivan analysis Italy France USA EU average = 11% Japan 1% 13

14 What will life after fossil fuels look like? It will be pretty difficult without strong energy savings Potential renewable energy production - Million tons of oil equivalent per year - 8 billion people at 2.5 toe/year? [TWh] [Mtoe] compared to billions panels of 1m compared to 2013 cover 0,5 million km 2) % of current arable land at 1 toe/ha 1.4 million km² dedicated % of forests exploited at 3 toe/ha 9.5 million km² dedicated Gtoe 20 Gtoe? Current Hydro Additional Hydro Solar power Wind power Geothermal power Biofuels Biomass Total Renewable Total Mtoe figures for power generation are converted on the basis of thermal equivalence assuming 38% conversion efficiency in a modern thermal power station Source: Philippe Bihouix, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, Frost & Sullivan 14

15 What is the real energy of the future then? The one we will not use! 15

16 Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant Energy & Transportation Practices (+33) nicolas.meilhan@frost.com