Benelux: Testing ground for Europe s energy transition Lessons from 100 % renewable scenarios

Transcription

1 Institute for European Studies 18-Marche-2013 Benelux: Testing ground for Europe s energy transition Lessons from 100 % renewable scenarios

2 Presentation content Purpose of the project Methodology Model inputs Scenario description Results: A picture on the energy infrastructure Policies and measures Conclusions 2

3 Purpose Purpose of the project (and limits) The study defines different trajectories that can lead to an energy system exclusively based on renewable energy sources l How to achieve a 100% renewable target in 2050 (electricity, heating and cooling, transport except l l aviation and sea transport)? What technologies are needed? What are the costs of these solutions? The study has to be perceived as a feasibility study l To be completed by other analyses 3

4 Renewable potential Renewable potential Wind onshore: l 9 GW based on regional studies Wind offshore: l 8 GW on Belgian continental shelf derived from the OPTIEP- BCP study Solar: well-oriented available built surfaces (heat and PV) l 12,02 x 10 7 m² in Wallonia approx. 250 km² l 1,74 x 10 7 m² in Brussels l 11,25 x 10 7 m 2 in Flanders Hydro: Capacity (storage excluded) l 120 MW Biomass: 300 PJ domestic+imports Geothermal: 4 GWe 4

5 Challenge is dealing with intermittent renewable energy sources: Daily fluctuations Methodology Capacity factor Solar Wind Half hourly observations from 1 to 5 March

6 Methodology Challenge is dealing with intermittent renewable energy sources: Seasonal fluctuations Capacity factor days moving average 2010 Lowest combined availabilit

7 Scenario description DEM: strictly based on estimated renewable potential GRID: more electricity imports BIO: more biomass allowed PV: more solar allowed Wind: more wind allowed

8 Results Results Gross Inland Consumption Final energy Energy mix Storage and space requirements Costs Employment 8

9 Results Primary energy (2050) (GIC as reported by Eurostat - non energy use - fuel consumption by aviation - Maritime bunker) 1800 PJ Fossiel Elektriciteit - import Wind offshore, niet- Belgisch grondgebied Wind offshore, Belgisch grondgebied Wind onshore Water Geothermie en luchtwarmte Bio- energie (binnenlands en import) Zon 0 REF DEM GRID BIO PV WIND

10 Results Final energy (2050) Oil Gas Coal Heat (air & ground & direct) Hydrogen Biomass Electricity PJ Total Industry Residential Transport 10

11 Electricity production and capacities (2050) Results TWh Imported electricity other Imported offshore electricity Gas Hydro Wind offshore Wind onshore Geothermal Biomass (incl. CHP) PV Of which Excess electricity GWe REF DEM GRID BIO PV WIND 0 REF DEM GRID BIO PV WIND 11

12 Storage technologies: results 60 GWh Electricity - Low - eff Smart grids ExisBng Coo Ref Grid Sol Wind 3500 GWh Hydrogen - Seasonal Hydrogen- Day Night Ref Grid Sol Wind

13 Seasonal steel production for dealing excess supply of solar in summer 14 Mton steel DRI - H2 DRI- H2 capacity Electric arc Electric arc - capacity Grid Sol Wind DRI H2: Electric arc: 17 GJ electricity/ton 5.5 GJ electricity/ton 25 TWh adjustable

14 Hydrogen in PV scenario Demand Supply

15 Results Solid biomass use (2050) PJ Direct use electricity sector Direct use industrial sector Hydrogen production Biofuel production DEM GRID BIO PV WIND 4 most important uses of solid biomass 15

16 Renewable electricity production Results % renewable electricity %RES scenario's Belgium Policy goals Germany Belgian trajectory (NREAP goal of 20,9% in 2020) Why so fast?..we stop improving from here?

17 Space requirement (2050) (km 2 ) Results PV: W peak /m² Wind offshore: 8.5 W peak /m² (squared parks) Wind onshore: 8.5 W peak /m² (squared parks) Biomass: 0.5 W/m² (could be much higher if imported biofuels, produced with PV electricity) Biomass (domestic and imported) WIND offshore (BE) WIND onshore SOLAR Belgian la nd surface Belgian Continental Plate REF DEM GRID BIO PV WIND 17

18 Results Costs (2050) (annual M ) Total cost Demand losses Investment and fixed costs Variable costs Additional cost - REF Demand losses Investment and fixed costs Variable costs

19 Results Annual cost additional to REF (2050) (% of GDP) 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% DEM GRID BIO PV WIND Energy system cost, %of GDP (2050) Total cost, including demand losses % of GDP (2050) 19

20 Results Additional Investments wrt REF All sectors (M ) Transport Residential Transport Residential Other sectors Industry Other sectors Industry Electricity Conversion Electricity Conversion Commercial 5000 Commercial DEM GRID BIO PV WIND CHP Agriculture DEM GRID BIO PV WIND CHP Agriculture Cumulative for Investments in

21 Investments in electricity sector Cumulative

22 Results Cost benefit GHG Total annual cost wrt REF, when (global) benefit of avoided GHG in 2050 is included Real B 2005 for DEM GRID BIO PV WIND Low case CO2 damage (18 to 130 /ton) High case CO2 damage (73 to 300 /ton) 22

23 Conclusions Conclusions Study demonstrates that technically, a 100% renewable energy system is feasible without having to change the economic paradigm. However, such a radical society transformation implies: An extensive electrification and almost 100% renewable electricity production by 2030 l Doubling or even tripling of current electricity production by billion additional investments New paradigm of energy perception Cost efficiency of adapting to energy flow variability Further research are certainly needed 23

24 Conclusions Conclusions (3/3) Impact of fuel prices and PV costs PV costs from /kw peak => variation of 0.5% of GDP 2050 Variant of REF scenario with higher oil prices (250 $ 2008 / boe in 2050) Higher oil prices => additional costs decrease to 2% GDP 2050 Creation of additional employment to additional full-time jobs New paradigm of energy perception Cost efficiency of adapting to energy flow variability Six critical areas of political action Further research are certainly needed 24

25 Storage technologies : assumptions Investment /kwh Efficiency C - rate Life Max - Cap High efficiency Day- Night Low efficiency Day- Night High efficiency - seasonal Low efficiency - seasonal Smart grids GWh Pumped storage N.A. N.A GWh Warning: Steel sector reacts as a huge storage device

26 Thank you for your attention Contacts: Danielle Devogelaer, Dominique Gusbin, Jan Duerinck, Wouter Nijs, Yves Marenne, Marco Orsini, Marie Pairon,

27 Back-up slides

28 300 Price of imported fuels and biomass mining $2008/bbl Crude Oil_ASPO Natural Gas_ASPO Biomass IMP_HP Crude Oil Natural Gas Biomass IMP_LP Mining - Forestry residues Coal_ASPO Coal Mining - Woody crops

29 Renewable cost Investment and fixed costs, year 2050 ( 2005 /MWh e ) FIXOM CAPEX Remark: This is not a model input but a stand alone calculation, based on maximum operating hours and a 4% discount rate. 29

30 Renewable potential Renewable potential Geothermal energy: Underground heat map for Flanders Depends on definition renewable and depth 10% cooling allowed Natural heat flux Depth of well 3300m 5000m Temp 135 C 200 C Operational period 100 years 100 years Infinity Max allowed heat loss 10% 10% 0% Underground surface used (wrt BE) 10% 10% 100% Efficiency 12% 15% 100% Max capacity 6000MWe 17000MWe 510 MWth => Geothermal potential equals 4 GWe 30

31 Model structure for existing gas fired house No investment costs Gas supply Gas delivery 12 /GJ 1.1 Gas boiler existing 1 1 House: age category 1960 Normal demolition: E C room temperature 0.95 Condensing boiler Insulating roof Gasoil supply Electricity supply Oil fuel delivery 11 /GJ Electricity delivery 40 /GJ Oil fuel boiler 3000 Heat pump Double glass Insulating roof +double glass Energy service demand Energy consumption Technology section 0.3 New house E Passive house

32 Biomass, GDP based Check for biomass use in the 100% RES scenarios, GDP based On the basis of the world GDP in 2050 in the WETO- H2 report (study for the EC) and the BE GDP in 2050, the share of BE in the world GDP would be 0.49% in Applying this percentage to the world biomass potential ( EJ) gives biomass use levels for Belgium in the range 780 to 1320 PJ. World GDP in 2050 BE GDP in billion $' billion $'06 share of BE in world GDP 0.49% World biomass potential min max EJ BE biomass use ceiling PJ

33 Storage assumptions Storage assumptions for all scenarios: The only mass storage available in Belgium today is the pumped water storage facility in Coo, representing a storage capacity of 5 GWh allowing to produce electricity at a power rate of 1,3 GW. Additional storage facilities include day/night and seasonal storage options for electricity, electricity to hydrogen and hydrogen to electricity options (electrolysis and fuel cell) and hydrogen storage options. Distinction is made between high efficiency storage options (90%), involving high investment costs (400 /kwh for lithium- ion batteries in 2050) and low efficiency options (70% efficiency, 160 /kwh). Smart grids have been implemented as a low cost- high efficiency storage facility (98% efficiency and 53 /kwh) but with a capacity limitation of 15 GWh.

34 Damage of CO 2 Bron: MIRA, Actualisering van de externe milieuschadekosten (algemeen voor Vlaanderen) met betrekking tot luchtverontreiniging en klimaatverandering

35 Damage of CO2 (Limobel)

36 Methodology Disutility cost demand loss Energy service demand is price sensitive and can change. A decrease leads to: l l avoided energy system costs (A) demand loss based on willingness to pay (B>A) Disutility loss is a loss in utility from adaptations of individuals through: l l l Behavioural changes turning out the light more frequently driving less by car (leisure time) consume less in general (via demand for cement etc...) Shifts to material not represented explicitly in the model shifting to less energy intensive building materials shifting to natural fertilizers Using technologies not yet represented in the model 36

37 Disutility cost demand loss RD RD RD Pr ε T2 RS T 3 Pp Pr T2 PS T 3 T1 Qr Qp Qr

38 Maximising blue area is equivalent to minimizing energy system costs + demand loss RD Energy system costs Pp Pr T2 PS T 3 Demand loss Producers surplus (profit) Consumers surplus Qp Qr