Urban Air Quality: Environment and health

Transcription

1 Current environmental challenges related to atmospheric chemistry and GAW Øystein Hov Norwegian Meteorological Institute also with University of Oslo

2 Urban Air Quality: Environment and health Greater London 2005 Annual mean NO2 concentrations Source: CERC Kilometers NO2 ug/m3 < > 52 Moussiopoulos, Eurotrac2 final event 2003

3 Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] (IIASA) Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5, average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden UK Total EU-15 Czech Rep. Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Slovakia Slovenia Total NMS Total EU

4 Lelieveld et al., 2004

5 Radiative forcing IPCC-TAR (2001) Greenhouse gases Tropospheric ozone Sulfate Carbonaceous

6 Stratospheric ozone and UV

7 International policy frameworks related to atmospheric science. Themes are disciplinary EU Legislation EU European Climate Change Programme EU GHG Monitoring Mechanism CAFE programme AQ Framework Directive Daughter Directives, Ozone, PM National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive AQ Exchange of Information Decision Large Combustion Plant (LCP) Directive and Solvents Directive Directive on ozone depleting substances and revisions Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Directive (IPPC) and European Pollutant Emission Register (EPER) Decision International conventions Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol UNECE CLRTAP Theme Climate Change Climate change Air Quality, Deposition (Transboundary Air Pollution) Air Quality Air Quality Air Quality, Deposition (Transboundary Air Pollution) Air Quality Air Quality Stratospheric ozone All themes Stratospheric ozone Climate Change Deposition (Transboundary Air Pollution)

8 Rationale and mission for GAW RATIONALE Understand mechanisms of natural and man-made atmospheric change Understand interactions atmosphere - ocean - biosphere Provide reliable scientific data and information for policy Established 1989 by WMO Cg-XI. MISSION: 1. Make reliable, comprehensive observations of the chemical composition and selected physical characteristics of the atmosphere on global and regional scales 2. Provide the scientific community with the means to predict future atmospheric states 3. Organize assessments in support of formulating environmental policy GAW - the atmospheric chemistry component of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

9 Environmental challenges are interlinked Urban AQ Industrial pollution Long range transport (rural observations, surface) Eutrophication Toxic species (POP, HM) Ozone depletion Radiatively active compounds Weather (temperature, precipitation, wind) Marine physics, chemistry and pollution Terrestrial ecosystem protection, freshwater Land use Waste

10 Urban Air Quality and health; global migration to cities

11 Chemical Weather: A Challenge of Scales and Integration Chemical Weather Analysis Public Impact Urban/Regional Prediction Global Assimilation Satellite Products Requires Close Integration of Observations and Models Modified after Pierce NASA/Langley

12 Industrial releases: Accumulated total deposition 60 hrs after explosion Dry versus wet deposition dry wet

13 Long range transport SOx NOx NHx VOC O3 PM

14 Q: Fraction of N, S emitted over Europe removed there

15

16 PM chemical composition as a function of size. Synergistic health effect of mixtures of pollutants How much of the total amount of aerosol mass can we identify? Even with concerted efforts, we still cannot routinely achieve mass closure. Putaud, et al. (2002) From E2 S&I Fig. 5.1 Noone, Eurotrac2 final event 2003

17 O growing season Lelieveld and Dentener, JGR, 2000

18 From Lelieveld MCF derived OH trend

19 Eutrophication: Nitrogen deposition past-present Frank Dentener, 2000

20 NO x Energy Production Food Production People (Food; Fiber) Human Activities NH x N org Ozone Effects NO x NH 3 Agroecosystem Effects Crop Soil Animal NO 3 Atmosphere Groundwater Effects PM & Visibility Effects Terrestrial Ecosystems Forests & Grassland Soil Stratospheric Effects GH Effects N 2 O N 2 O The Nitrogen Cascade Surface water Effects Coastal Effects Ocean Effects --Indicates denitrification potential Aquatic Ecosystems

21 Intercontinental transport of pollutants, an example World seaborn dry cargo and oil trade movements million tonnes Oil Dry Cargo The trend in the global seaborne trade movement of dry cargo and oil since 1984 in million tonnes per year (20).

22 Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes air quality and health Globalisation of the economy transportation and energy use, greying of Europe Population growth, urbanisation exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

23 RCM climate change scenario of current (CTRL ) and future (SCEN ) conditions. a, b, distribution of summer T northern Switzerland for CTRL and SCEN, c, T for SCEN CTR, d, Change in variability expressed as relative change in standard deviation of JJA means ((SCEN CTRL)/CTRL, %). Copied from Schär et al., 2004.

24

25 Climate-ecosystem-chemistry-physics feedbacks Climate chemical change feedback: Fireconvection frequency ( Add fire-convection to volcanoes ) More lightning under climate change? Tropospheric ozone reduction of soil carbon formation feedback?

26 Monitoring needs Current Global Station Network Global Atmosphere Watch 80 Alert Ny Ålesund 80 Point Barrow Pallas-Sodankylä Polar Circle Mace Head Zugspitze-Hohenpeissenberg 40 Izaña Mt Waliguan 40 Minamitorishima Mauna Loa Assekrem-Tamanrasset 0 Mt Kenya 0 Samoa Arembepe Bukit Koto Tabang 40 Cape Point Lauder 40 Ushuaia Amsterdam Island Cape Grim NeumayerStation South Pole December 2000

27 Methods need to cross over each other The observational approach (surface, remote sensing) needs to take into account interlinkages beween the environmental issues Deterministic modelling, ensemble predictions (pdf) Deterministic modelling combined with observations (cfr NWP) Quality assurance in the sensor-user chain Expert user driven information and knowledge extraction (fusion of diverse data streams specified by a user) (cfr IGACO-thinking)

28 GAW global and regional networks: Regional monitoring programmes National programmes European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Working Group on Effects (ICP-F, ICP-IM, ICP-V) World Meteorological Organisation - Global Atmosphere Watch (WMO-GAW) (5 WDCs) Marine Conventions (OSPAR, HELCOM) Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) EEA (EiO, EIONET) North American Programmes (CAPMON, NADP, NTN) Acid Deposition Network in East Asia (EANET) IGBP-IGAC CAD (Chemistry of Asian deposition) Impacts project (China) Male declaration Asian Brown Clowd Others

29 Integrated assessment towards policy IIASA Energy/agriculture projections Emission control options The model: RAINS Emissions Costs OPTIMIZATION Atmospheric dispersion Environmental impacts Environmental targets

30 Expert user driven information and knowledge extraction (fusion of diverse data streams specified by a user) IGACO! Next talk

31 GAW challenges GAW covers important elements of Environmental security needs (GEO/GEOSS/GMES) product/indicator/signal parameter oriented analysis and forecasting of both short term and long term hazards or developments beyond accepted bounds AQ warning; ecosystem loading; UV dose; visibility; toxic levels; climate change/variability; floods/drought/excessive precipitation/winds beyond certain limits; Integrate regions (local and regional air pollution important driving forces): EMEP, EU, EANET, N America, Atmospheric Brown Cloud, Greying of Europe Maintain GAW identity and funding streams and commitment through NMSs and other national institutions Recognise that WMO has the global scale needed to address the anthropogenic modification of many biogeochemical cycles WMO has a model of how to fuse complex data streams according to the user needs as expressed by NMSs (NWP). Apply in IGACO.

32 What makes GAW function? NMSs and other national institutions, in particular those who operate global sites Countries dedicating resources for the common good (CH/Meteoswiss, D/UBA, US/NOAA, Russia, Japan, Canada, EU/JRC, others) including supporting WDCs, QA/SACs, World Cal Centres, Central Cal Labs, outreach and educational activities/institutional building Committed individuals AREP THANK YOU TO ALL FOR YOUR EFFORT IN GAW