TRANSITION TOWARDS A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM BY 2050 FOR TURKEY

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1 TRANSITION TOWARDS A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM BY 2050 FOR TURKEY Anil Kilickaplan, Onur Peker, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Arman Aghahosseini and Christian Breyer Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland NEO-CARBON ENERGY 7 th RESEARCHERS SEMINAR Lappeenranta, January 24-25, 2017

2 Highlights A 100% renewable energy systems can provide reliable, sustainable energy services before 2050 A 100% renewable energy system is lower in cost than the current system based on fossil fuels A well-designed 100% renewable energy system with energy storage solutions can provide power system stability, baseload power, and peak following power in all 8760 hours of the year 2

3 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives and Outlook Summary 3

4 Turkey s RE potential Resource Type Sustainable Biomass Potential 61.7 TWh th,a (DBFZ, 2010) Geothermal 2.7 GW (Akin et al., 2014) Hydro 35 GW (Demirbas, 2002) sources: DBFZ, 2009, Endbericht Globale und regionale räumliche Verteilung von Biomassepotenzialen. Status Quo und Möglichkeiten der Präzisierung. Leipzig Demirba, A., 2002, Sustainable Developments of Hydropower Energy in Turkey. Energy Sources, 24, Akin, U., Ulugergerli, E. U., & Kutlu, S., 2014, Türkiye Jeotermal Potansiyelinin Isi Akisi Hesaplamasiyla De erlendirilmesi. Bulletin Of The Mineral Research and Exploration, 149(149). 4

5 Current status of the power plant mix Oil 0.45 GW 0.6% Coal GW 21.2% Gas GW 29% Geothermal 0.62 GW 0.9% Solar 0.31 GW 0.4% Wind 4.5 GW 6.2% Hydro/Run-of- River 6.79 GW 9.3% Hydro Dam GW 26.1% Biomass 4.7 GW 6.4% Geothermal Total Installed Capacity: GW for 2015 source: [TEIAS] - Turkish Electricity Transmission Company, 2016, Turkey Installed capacity of 2015, Ankara, Turkey Hydro/Run-of-River Hydro Dam Biomass Wind Solar Gas Oil Coal Key insights: Current installations are dominated by hydro, fossil gas and coal Highly dependent on fossil fuels decreases energy supply security Enormous potential of RE Still huge coal plant investment plans and subsidies with outstanding high stranded asset risk Turkey may turn into a waterstressed country by 2030 There are pending nuclear plant agreements CO 2 emissions should be decreased 5

6 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives and Outlook Summary 6

7 Key Objectives Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions resources, optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and seven sub-regions of Turkey, optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system, least cost energy supply for the given constraints. LUT Energy model, key features linear optimization model hourly resolution multi-node approach flexibility and expandability enables energy transition modeling Input data historical weather data for: solar irradiation, wind speed and hydro precipitation available sustainable resources for biomass and geothermal energy synthesized power load data gas and water desalination demand efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants efficiency of energy conversion processes capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources min and max capacity limits for all RE resources nodes and interconnections configuration 7

8 Methodology Overview Energy transition pathway from 2015 fossil-based system to a 100% RE power system by 2050 Transition in 5 year time steps No new nuclear or fossil-based thermal power plants installed after 2015 Least cost RE power plant mix replaces phased out fossil power plants Energy system modelled to meet increasing electricity demand for each time step Research Objective: Find the least cost energy transition pathway for Turkey. Left: Aggregated load profile for Turkey Right: Estimated electricity consumption of Turkey from 2015 to 2050 Total Electricity Consumption (TWh)

9 Methodology Full system Renewable energy sources PV rooftop PV ground-mounted PV single-axis tracking Wind onshore/ offshore Hydro run-of-river Hydro dam Geothermal energy CSP Waste-to-energy Biogas Biomass Electricity transmission node-internal AC transmission interconnected by HVDC lines Storage options Batteries Pumped hydro storage Adiabatic compressed air storage Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas Water electrolysis Methanation CO 2 from air 9 Transition Gastowards storage a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Christian Breyer christian.breyer@lut.fi Energy Demand Electricity Water Desalination Industrial Gas

10 Scenarios assumptions Key data 95.8 million population in m km 2 ~641 TWh electricity demand (2050) ~65.85 b m 3 /a water desalination demand (2050) ~64.8 TWh non-energetic industrial gas demand (2030) Turkey assumed as an island in the study sub-regions are divided same as Turkey s seven geographical regions; Marmara, Mediterranean, Aegean, Black Sea, Middle, East and South East Anatolia fossil fuel plants are phased out after their lifetimes Studied Scenarios Power sector Integrated: power sector plus water desalination and non-energetic industrial gas 10

11 Scenarios assumptions Full load hours Region PV fixed-tilted FLH PV single-axis FLH CSP FLH Wind FLH NO DK SE FI BLT PL IBE FR BNL BRI DE CRS AUH BKN-W BKN-E IT CH TR UA IS Wind offshore full load hours FLH of region computed as weighed average of regional sub-areas (about 50 km x 50 km each): 0%-20% best sub-areas of region %-30% best sub-areas of region %-50% best sub-areas of region 0.1 Data: Based on NASA (Stackhouse P.W., Whitlock C.H., (eds.), SSE release 6.0) reprocessed by DLR (Stetter D., Dissertation, Stuttgart)

12 Scenarios assumptions Solar and Wind LCOE (weather year 2005, cost year 2050) 12

13 Scenarios assumptions Generation profile PV generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule. Wind generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule. Winds somewhat stronger when solar resource is weaker Solar resource very good across entire country in all but winter months Solar and wind energy complement each other 13

14 Scenarios assumptions Grid configurations Assumption Power Sector Scenarios Integrated with Desalination and Industrial Gas demand PV self-consumption X X Water Desalination Non-energetic Industrial Gas X X 14

15 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives and Outlook Summary 15

16 Results 2050 Scenario Total LCOE Primary LCOE LCOC LCOS LCOT Total ann. cost Total CAPEX RE capacities Generated electricity [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [b ] [b ] [GW] [TWh] Power Sector Integrated *,** Total LCOE prosumer LCOE primary prosumer LCOS prosumer Total ann. Cost prosumer Total CAPEX prosumer PV capacities prosumer Generated electricity prosumer LCOW LCOG [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [ /kwh] [b ] [b ] [GW] [TWh] [ /m 3 ] [ /MWh th ] Integrated Scenario: LCOW: 0.46 /m 3 LCOG: /kwh th,gas * additional demand to the system 13.2% by gas and 15% by desalination ** LCOS does not include the cost for the industrial gas (LCOG) 16

17 Results LCOE - capex, opex, grid, fuel, CO 2 Power Sector Integrated After 2020, capex has the major share with at least 65% of total LCOE Fuel cost and CO 2 nearly disappear after 2040 After 2020, capex share is increasing continously Fuel cost and CO 2 nearly disappear after 2045 Capex is nearly constant after

18 Results Installed capacities and generation Power Sector 100% renewable energy system is reachable for Turkey by 2050 RE share can reach 90% at 2025 in Power scenario Fossil fuel share in the system is 9.4% in 2025 (65% in 2015) and coal is 7.2% (39% in 2015). By 2050, PV is the major source of energy with 71% (50% in 2030) and wind second with 16% Synthetic natural gas is started to be utilised from 2030 onwards for the Power sector scenario and from 2035 onwards for the Integrated scenario For both scenarios, wind generation is almost the same to solar PV until 2030 but after then PV grows faster 18

19 Results Installed capacities and generation Integrated 100% renewable energy system is reachable by 2050 (incl. desalination and non-energetic industrial gas demand) RE share of 90% can be reached in period for integrated scenario Fossil fuel share in the system is 11.8% in 2035 (73% in 2015) and coal is 3%. By 2050, PV is the major source of energy with 72% and wind second with 17% 19

20 Results Regions Electricity Capacities - (year 2050) Power Sector Integrated 20

21 Results Storage - (year 2050) Scenario Storage capacities Throughput of storage Battery* PHS Gas A-CAES TES Battery* PHS Gas A-CAES TES [GWh el ] [GWh el ] [GWh th ] [GWh el ] [GWh e ] [TWh el ] [TWh el ] [TWh th ] [TWh el ] [TWh el ] Power Integration Full cycles per year Scenario Battery* PHS Gas A-CAES TES [-] [-] [-] [-] [-] Power Integration * Total 21

22 Results Storage Mix Power Sector Integrated 22

23 Results Regions Storage Mix (year 2050) Power Sector Integrated 23

24 Results Storage Mix - Integrated scenario (year 2050) Battery Storage PHS Storage Hydro Dam Storage SC Battery Storage A-CAES Storage Gas Storage 24

25 Results Import / Export (year 2050) Power Sector and Integrated Trades Power Sector Integrated Key insights: Storage usage is widespread, 29% and 26% of total demand of both scenarios are provided by storage Electricity trade is limited, maximum 19% traded among regions Net Importers: Marmara but all the regions are self-sufficient Net Exporters: Aegean, Middle Anatolia and East Anatolia 25

26 Results Total LCOE (year 2050) Integrated Power Sector 26

27 Results Total LCOE (year 2050) prosumers 27

28 Results Total LCOE component contributions (year 2050) Power Sector Integrated 28

29 Results Total LCOE generation, curtailment, storage and transmission (year 2050) Power Sector Integrated 29

30 Results Total LCOS Storage costs and throughput by regions (year 2050) Average LCOS 18.2 /MWh Power Sector Average LCOS 13.2 /MWh Integrated 30

31 Results Total LCOS Storage capacities (year 2050) Power Sector Average LCOS 18.2 /MWh Integrated Average LCOS 13.2 /MWh 31

32 Results Resource utilisation - Solar PV and Wind Power Sector Integrated PV total capacity 287 GW PV total capacity 387 GW (+34 %) Wind total capacity 63.3 GW Wind total capacity 92.2 GW (+46%) 32

33 Results Seawater Desalination Amount of produced water and water cost Key insights: The regions with longer distances to the sea have higher desalinated water costs. LCOW decreases while electricity costs decline. Desalination capacity meets 28.3% of Turkey s water demand 33

34 Results Gas sector Key insights: Gas demand in decline, almost no demand for power Net zero emissions imply switch to power-to-gas Power-to-gas cost higher than today Gas storage seasonal (max: autumn, min: winter) Power-to-gas units are mainly based on solar PV electricity and partly on wind, mainly in the summer 34

35 Results Desalination sector Key insights: Desalination required for fulfilling increasing clean water demand Seawater reverse osmosis based on electricity and least cost deslination option Desalination cost decline from today to 2050 steadily Required capex for the desalination sector rise continuously, but more due to the supply in remote areas at high altitudes than due to the desalination plants 35

36 Results Greenhouse gas emissions Power Sector Integrated Key insights: GHG emissions fall between when the RE share is rising The reason for the emission rise in 2030 is an increase of 1.5% in fossil gas consumption While increasing the RE share in the energy system, Turkey s energy system is getting increasingly sustainable and supporting COP21 responsibilities. 36

37 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives and Outlook Summary 37

38 Hourly Power Sector: Mediterranean Key insights: Main electricity sources are solar PV, hydropower and wind energy Excess solar PV electricity is stored in batteries during daytime and discharged during nighttime Hours of shortage are covered by import via grids and gas turbines 38

39 Hourly Power Sector: Mediterranean Key insights: Main electricity sources are solar PV, hydropower and wind energy Excess solar PV electricity is stored in batteries during daytime and discharged during nighttime Hours of shortage are covered by import via grids and gas turbines Desalination (baseload) demand is covered by PV plus battery 39

40 Hourly Integrated Sector: Mediterranean Key insights: Dominating electricity source in the summer is solar PV (prosumer and utility-scale) Excess solar PV electricity is stored in batteries during daytime and discharged during nighttime Some further excess electricity seasonally stored by power-to-gas and exported Peak production partly curtailed 40

41 Results Energy flow of the System of the Integrated scenario (2050) Key insights: Dominating electricity source isolar PV, complemented by wind energy and hydropower Most electricity is used directly and partly redirected to nieghbouring regions by grids Some electricity is stored, most in batteries Gas is mainly used for non-energetic industrial demand, some gas for balancing the power sector Energy system is highly efficient due to low losses (losses 10%, maybe useable heat loss 8%) 41 Christian Breyer

42 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives and Outlook Summary 42

43 Cost comparison of cleantech solutions Preliminary NCE results clearly indicate 100% RE systems cost about /MWh for 2030 cost assumptions on comparable basis source: Breyer Ch., et al., On the Role of Solar Photovoltaics in Global Energy Transition Scenarios, 32nd EU PVSEC, Munich, June Key insights: PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option nuclear and coal-ccs is too expensive nuclear and coal-ccs are high risk technologies 100% RE systems are highly cost competitive 43 source: Agora Energiewende, Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option; Grubler A., The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174

44 Results Visualisation Global Internet of Energy: 44 Christian Breyer

45 Overview on World s Regions Regions LCOE regionwide LCOE area-wide Integrati on benefit ** storage s* grids regions trade* Curtailm ent PV prosum ers* PV system * Wind * Biomass * [ /MWh] [ /MWh] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] Hydro* Northeast Asia % 7% 10% 5% 16.4% 35.4% 40.9% 2.9% 11.6% Southeast Asia % 8% 3% 3% 7.2% 36.8% 22.0% 22.9% 7.6% India/ SAARC % 22% 23% 3% 6.2% 43.5% 32.1% 10.9% 5.4% Eurasia % <1% 13% 3% 3.8% 9.9% 58.1% 13.0% 15.4% Europe % 6% 17% 2% 12.3% 14.9% 55.0% 6.6% 9.3% MENA % <1% 10% 5% 1.8% 46.4% 48.4% 1.3% 1.1% Sub-Saharan Africa % 4% 8% 4% 16.2% 34.1% 31.1% 7.8% 8.2% North America % 1% 24% 4% 11.0% 19.8% 58.4% 3.7% 6.8% South America % 5% 12% 5% 12.1% 28.0% 10.8% 28.0% 21.1% Key insights: 100% RE is highly competitive least cost for high match of seasonal supply and demand PV share typically around 40% (range 15-51%) hydro and biomass limited the more sectors are integrated flexibility options limit storage to 10% and it will further decrease with heat and mobility sector integration 45most generation locally within sub-regions (grids 3-24%) Christian Breyer christian.breyer@lut.fi * Integrated scenario, supply share ** annualised costs sources: see

46 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results for the Energy System Results for Hourly Operation Alternatives and Outlook Summary 46

47 Energy Transition Modeling: Turkey Key insights: energy system transition model for Turkey LCOE stays roughly stable and declines after 2040 beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more competitive than wind energy solar PV + battery the most important system components solar PV supply share in 2050 at about 60% as least cost PV prosumers will play a very important role in Turkey

48 Review of annualized costs - Integrated Key insights: Increasing opex due to phasing out of fossil fuels, also leading to related jobs Continuous capex for energy transition needed in the entire transition period 48

49 Breakdown of LCOE - Integrated Key insights: LCOE comprised mostly of capex of renewables Increasing relevance of storage costs after 2030 Fuel and carbon emission costs significantly decreased up to

50 Summary Turkey can reach 100% RE by 2050 and zero CO 2eq emissions from power plants LCOE is about 51 /MWh for Integrated and 57 /MWh for Power scenario After 2025 solar PV and wind energy form the majority in the energy mix Most favorable energy source for Turkey is solar PV which is balanced by batteries and using complementary wind energy Transition for decreasing fossil fuel consumption in the system for Coal and fossil gas consumption is completely phased out by 2045 Power-to-Gas plants are starting to become relevant in the scenarios by 2035 Increasing water demand makes it necessary to connect seawater desalination systems to the grid requiring an extra of 15% electricity demand Battery storage becomes crucial for system flexibility The presented scenarios show a possible pathway for Turkey s sustainable 100% RE energy transition based on estimated future power demands 50

51 Thank you for your attention! NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategy research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre. Please check next slides for an overview of all data, assumptions and references.

52 Results Resource utilisation Hydro Power Sector Integrated Hydro Dam capacity 21.2 GW Hydro Dam capacity 23.4 GW (+10%) Hydro RoR capacity 7.6 GW Hydro RoR capacity 7.6 GW (±0%) 52

53 Results Resource utilisation geothermal and solid biomass Power Sector Geothermal capacity 0.65 GW Integrated Geothermal capacity 0.65 GW (±0%) Solid biomass capacity 2.81 GW Solid biomass capacity 2.74 GW (-2.5%) 53

54 Data Power Plant Capacities Technical and Financial Assumptions Capex variation based on learning curves Least cost power plant capacities based on Cost Efficiency of generation and storage Power to energy ratio of storage Available resource WACC is set to 7% for all years. Variation in capex from for all power plant components utilised by model. Capex, fixed opex, efficiency and power to energy ratio numbers are presented at next slides by subregion and years details. 54

55 Scenarios assumptions Full load hours Solar and Wind Regional FLH PV 0-axis FLH PV 1-axis FLH CSP FLH Wind onshore FLH Wind offshore FLH Wind Total FLH PV 0-axis FLH PV 1-axis FLH CSP FLH Wind onshore FLH Wind offshore FLH Wind Total Region Year [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] Region Year [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] Medi terranean Marmara

56 Scenarios assumptions Full load hours Solar and Wind Regional FLH PV 0-axis FLH PV 1-axis FLH CSP FLH Wind onshore FLH Wind offshore FLH Wind Total FLH PV 0-axis FLH PV 1-axis FLH CSP FLH Wind onshore FLH Wind offshore FLH Wind Total Region Year [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] Region Year [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] Aegean Black Sea

57 Scenarios assumptions Full load hours - Solar and Wind Regional FLH PV 0-axis FLH PV 1-axis FLH CSP FLH Wind onshore FLH Wind offshore FLH Wind Total FLH PV 0-axis FLH PV 1-axis FLH CSP FLH Wind onshore FLH Wind offshor e FLH Wind Total Region Year [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] Region Year [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] Central Anatolia South East Anatolia

58 Scenarios assumptions Full load hours The others for Turkey average Technology Flh Geothermal [h] Flh Bat SC Res [h] Flh Bat SC Com [h] Flh Bat SC Ind [h] Flh Bat SC total [h] Flh Bat system [h] Flh Bat total [h] Flh PHS [h] Flh TES [h] Flh CAES [h] Flh PtSNG [h] Flh CCGT [h] Flh OCGT [h] Flh GT [h] Flh ST [h]

59 Scenarios assumptions Full load hours The rest of technologies for Turkey s average Technology Flh Biomass PP [h] Flh Waste PP [h] Flh Biogas PP [h] Flh Biogas Upgr [h] Flh Biogas Dig [h] Flh Hard coal PP [h] Flh Internal combustion generator [h] Flh Nuclear PP [h]

60 Installed Capacity (GW) Power Sector Technology Hard coal PP CCGT OCGT ST PV prosumers RES PV prosumers COM PV prosumers IND PV 0-axis system PV 1-axis system Wind onshore Wind offshore Hydro ROR Hydro dams Biogas PP Geothermal Waste PP Total

61 Installed Capacity (GW) Integrated Technology Hard coal PP CCGT OCGT ST PV prosumers RES PV prosumers COM PV prosumers IND PV 0-axis system PV 1-axis system Wind onshore Wind offshore Hydro ROR Hydro dams Biogas PP Geothermal Waste PP Total

62 Cost assumptions Technology Cost category Unit Steam turbine Capex /kwe (CSP) Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years % Water electrolysis District Heat Burner Hot Heat Burner Efficiency % 42 % 42 % 42 % 43 % 44 % 44 % 45 % 45 % Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 % 62

63 Cost assumptions Technology Cost category Unit Gas CAES Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 70 % 70 % 70 % 70 % 70 % 70 % 70 % 70 % CCGT PP Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 58 % 58 % 58 % 58 % 59 % 60 % 60 % 60 % OCGT PP Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 63

64 Cost assumptions Technology Cost category Unit Oil PP Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % Coal PP Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % Nuclear PP Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 37 % 37 % 37 % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % MSW PP Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 34 % 34 % 34 % 34 % 34 % 34 % 34 % 34 % 64

65 Cost assumptions Technology Cost category Unit Biomass PP Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 36 % 37 % 40 % 43 % 45 % 47 % 48 % 48 % Methanation Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 77 % 77 % 77 % 77 % 77 % 77 % 77 % 77 % 65

66 Cost assumptions Technology Cost category Unit BHKW Wood Gasifier Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % BHKW Biogas Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 33 % 34 % 37 % 40 % 42 % 44 % 44 % 45 % CO2 Scrubbing Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 78 % 78 % 78 % 78 % 78 % 78 % 78 % 78 % Concentrated Solar Receiver Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 51 % 51 % 51 % 51 % 51 % 51 % 51 % 51 % 66

67 Cost assumptions Technology Cost category Unit Electricity to Heat Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 99 % 99 % 99 % 99 % 99 % 99 % 99 % 99 % Biogas Digester Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Biogas Upgrade Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % Geothermal PP Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 24 % 24 % 24 % 24 % 24 % 24 % 24 % 24 % 67

68 Cost assumptions Technology Cost category Unit Wind Onshore Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years Wind Offshore Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years Hydropower Dam water influx Hydropower run-of-the-river Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency % 90 % 90 % 90 % 90 % 90 % 90 % 90 % 90 % Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years

69 Cost assumptions Technology Cost category Unit Solar PV 0-axis Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years Solar PV 1-axis tracking Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years Solar PV - Rooftop Capex /kwe Opex fixed /kwe Lifetime Years

70 Cost assumptions - Storage Technology Cost category Unit Li-ion stationary Capex /kwhe batteries Opex fixed /kwhe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency in % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % Efficiency out % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % Pumped Hydro storage Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage Energy/Power h Capex /kwhe Opex fixed /kwhe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency in % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % Efficiency out % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % Energy/Power h Capex /kwhe Opex fixed /kwhe Opex variable /kwhe Lifetime Years Efficiency in % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % Efficiency out % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % Self-discharge % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Energy/Power h

71 Cost assumptions - Storage Technology Cost category Unit Hydrogen Storage Capex /kwhgas Opex fixed /kwhgas Lifetime Years Methane Storage Capex /kwhgas Opex fixed /kwhgas Lifetime Years Liquid Fuel Storage Capex /kwhth Opex fixed /kwhth Lifetime Years Solid Fuel Storage Capex /kwhth Opex fixed /kwhth Lifetime Years

72 Cost assumptions - Storage Technology Cost category Unit Hydro Dam Water Energy/Power Basin OUT h Compressed Air Storage Capex /kwhe Opex fixed /kwhe Lifetime Years Energy/Power h Biogas Storage Capex /kwhgas Opex fixed /kwhgas Lifetime Years

73 Cost assumptions - Fuels Fuel Unit Crude oil USD/bbl Crude oil /MWh Natural Gas /MWh Biomethane /MWh Coal - Hard /MWh Coal - Lignite /MWh Uranium /MWh Wood /MWh Biogas /MWh Municipal Solid Waste /MWh CO2 /ton

74 Cost Assumption Sea water desalination Technology Sea Water Reverse Osmosis Multi Stage Flash for cogeneration Gain Output Ratio: 8 Power to Water: 2.25 kw/(m 3 day) Multi Stage Flash for stand alone Gain Output Ratio: 8 Capex /(m 3 day) Opex fix /(m 3 day) Energy consumption kwh/m Lifetime years Capex /(m 3 day) Opex fix /(m 3 day) Thermal energy consumption (Total gas input required for water kwh th /m and electricity) Electrical energy consumption kwh el /m Lifetime years Capex /(m 3 day) Opex fix /(m 3 day) Thermal energy consumption kwh th /m Electrical energy consumption kwh el /m Lifetime years

75 Cost Assumption Sea water desalination Water Transportation Piping Capex /(m 3 km) Vertical Pumping Horizontal Pumping Water Storage Fixed Opex /(m km) Lifetime years Capex /(m 3 m) Fixed Opex /(m 3 m) Energy kwh/(m consumption m) Lifetime years Capex /(m 3 km) Fixed Opex /(m 3 km) Energy kwh/(m 3 100k consumption m) Lifetime years Capex /m Fixed Opex /m Lifetime years