Director of Planning and Studies

Transcription

1 ADWEC Winter 2010 / 2011 Mr Mohammed Al Hajjiri Head of Water Forecast Section Demand Forecast ( ) Mr Keith Miller Director of Planning and Studies Ms Einar Al Hareeri Head of Power Forecast Section Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company (ADWEC) MEED Arabian Power & Water Summit th 29 th March 2011 Beach Rotana Hotel, Abu Dhabi, UAE Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company keithmiller@adwec.ae Tel: Fax:

2 Presentation Overview Data and Demand Forecast Accuracy 2. Electricity Peak Demand Forecast (MW) 3. Water Peak Demand Forecast (MIGD) 4. Fuel Demand Forecast (a) GWh forecast (b) Fuel forecast 5. Summary 2

3 2010 Peak Demands / Supply 2010 Actual Peak Demands Global = Emirate of Abu Dhabi + Exports Electricity Peak Demands Growth Date 2010 Peak Emirate of Abu Dhabi 5,616 6,255 6, % 14th July 2010 Global (Emirate of Abu Dhabi + Exports) 6,620 7,680 8, % 19th July 2010 Peak Exports 854 1,275 1, % 15th July 2010 Water Peak Supplies Emirate of Abu Dhabi Global (Emirate of Abu Dhabi + Exports) Peak Exports water peaks at time of System Peak Average Per Annum Growth Rates Electricity Water Emirate of Abu Dhabi 91% 9.1% 43% 4.3% Global (including Exports) 12.0% 5.0% 3

4 ADWEC Demand Forecasting Accuracy Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts (MW) Abu Dhabi System Forecast Actual Forecast - Actual Percent ,640 4, % ,680 4, % ,180 5, % ,830 5, % ,542 6, % ,065 6, % Global Demand Forecast Actual Forecast - Actual Percent ,783 6, % % ,888 8, % Peak Water Demand Forecasts (MIGD) Global Demand Forecast Actual Forecast - Actual Percent % % % % % % ADWEC s demand forecasts have proven to be very accurate. ADWEC s 2010 forecasts adjusted to reflect 2010 hydrocarbon supply chain. 4

5 ADWEC s Northern Emirates Exports In March 2011, H.H. The President ordered new investments in the Northern Emirates electricity and water sector. As a result of that announcement ADWEA provided ADWEC with new electricity export forecasts to use for planning purposes. ADWEC s 2010 peak exports of 1,737 MW were broadly similar in size to : FEWA capacity (approximately 1,300 MW) SEWA capacity (approximately 2,400 MW) ADWEC s 2013 exports of 3,800+ MW would exceed current FEWA + SEWA capacity exports of 3,800+ MW would exceed Abu Dhabi s 2001 peak demand (3,723 MW). 3,800+ MW is greater than Bahrain or Jordan s 2010 peak demands of around 2,700 MW. ADWEC also exports significant quantities of water to the Northern Emirates Exports 2011 Water Exports will increase +70% Electricity Exports will increase by 300+ MW. 5

6 Electricity Demand Forecast 6

7 ADWEC Winter 2010 / 2011 Electricity Peak Demand Forecasts (6) Six forecasts have been developed. Three Common Assumptions used in all Six demand forecasts for 1. Exports 2. ADNOC 3. Northern Emirates Auxiliaries / pumping Non-ADNOC Demand Assumptions separate the Six Demand Forecasts Emirate of Abu Dhabi a) ADNOC (common assumption) 2010 : 256 MW (4%) b) Non-ADNOC Demand 2010 : MW (96%) Non-ADNOC Demand Assumptions separate the Six forecasts. 7

8 ADWEC Winter 2010 / 2011 Electricity Demand Forecasts (6) Non-ADNOC Assumptions : 1. Population Increase (3 kw per capita, Non-ADNOC Demand) 2. +7% p.a. (Non-ADNOC Demand) Top Down Forecasts % p.a. (Non-ADNOC Demand) 4. Project Based Forecast (Base case used for Planning Purposes) Provides detailed project forecast that is useful for Distribution & Transmission planning. The other (5) demand forecasts are for illustrative purposes only. 5. Project Based Forecast + EMAL Phase II (1,100 MW in 2014) 6. Project Based Forecast + EMAL Phase II (1,100 MW in 2014) + Industry as submitted. 8

9 30, Global Peak Electricity Demand Forecast Common Assumptions 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20, Emirate of Abu Dhabi Non-ADNOC 2015 v 2010 Demand increases by 4,800+ MW from: ADNOC / Exports / Northern Emirates alone - ADNOC excluding Emirate of Abu Dhabi s Non-ADNOC demand. Export related Auxiliaires& Losses Total Exports 19,000 18, Global + Incremental ADNOC + Exports 17,000 MW 16,000 13,385 15,000 13,385 14,000 ` 12,428 13,000 12,060 Emirate of Abu 12,000 Dhabi's 2010 Non- ADNOC Demand 11,000 8,563 9,307 9,542 10,000 8,563 9,000 13,701 13,971 14, Comparison (MW) 13,385 : Export / ADNOC Only 14,576 14, ,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 1,434 1,668 2,380 2,451 2,461 2,468 2,497 2,547 4, ,000 2, ,816 3,936 4,062 4,301 4,555 4,824 5,108 5,411 1, ,737 2,075 2,

10 30, Global Peak Electricity Demand Forecast Population Growth Forecast 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 Population > 70,000 per annum +70,000 Population p.a. 3 kw per Capita +70,000 p.a. x 5 3 kw per capita = +1,200 MW by 2015 (+350,000 population by 2015) MW 25, Emirate of Abu Dhabi Non-ADNOC 24,000 23,000 ADNOC 22,000 21,000 Export related Auxiliaires& Losses 20,000 Total Exports 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,563 8,563 Population growth likely to increase in future Suggests range of +1,200 MW - 1,700 MW by Population Scenario 14,903 16,794 16,154 15, ,903 13,607 ` 12, Comparison (MW) 10,122 9,582 Emirate of Abu Dhabi's 2010 Non- ADNOC Demand 13, : Export / ADNOC Only 14,903 : Population Growth 17,487 18, ,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 1,434 1,668 2,380 2,451 2,461 2,468 2,497 2,547 4, ,000 2, ,816 3,936 4,062 4,301 4,555 4,824 5,108 5,411 1, ,737 2,075 2,

11 30, Global Peak Electricity Demand Forecast 7% Emirate Of Abu Dhabi (non-adnoc) Growth 29,000 28,000 7% Emirate of Abu Dhabi Non-ADNOC Demand 27, Emirate of Abu Dhabi Non-ADNOC 26,000 25,000 ADNOC 7% p.a. Non-ADNOC demand growth adds approximately +1,000 MW by 2015 versus population increase of +1,200-1,700 MW. 24,000 23,000 Export related Auxiliaires& Losses MW 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 0 Total Exports Population Scenario Historic 7% Growth Rate (Emirate of Abu Dhabi Non-ADNOC Demand) 15,866 13,426 1,492 12,903 14,340 13,607 2,060 15,866 2,669 14,903 Emirate of Abu Dhabi's 2010 Non- ADNOC Demand 16,808 3,319 15,543 17,751 4,016 16, Comparison (MW) 8,563 10,454 13,385 : Export / ADNOC Only 9, ,122 8,563 9,582 14,903 : Population Growth 8,563 15,866 : 7% Non-ADNOC 18,754 4,761 16,794 19,845 17,487 5,558 21,029 18,238 6, ,000 6,000 5,000 1,434 1,668 2,380 2,451 2,461 2,468 2,497 2,547 4,000 3,000 2, ,816 3,936 4,062 4,301 4,555 4,824 5,108 5,411 1, ,737 2,075 2,

12 30, Global Peak Electricity Demand Forecast 10% Emirate Of Abu Dhabi (non-adnoc ) Growth 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 10% Emirate of Abu Dhabi Non-ADNOC Demand 2010 Emirate of Abu Dhabi Non-ADNOC ADNOC Export related Auxiliaires& Losses 10% p.a. Non-ADNOC demand growth adds approximately +2,300 MW by 2015 when compared to population increase alone of +1,200-1,700 MW. 23,202 25,079 23,000 22,000 21,000 Total Exports Recent 10% Growth Rate (Emirate of Abu Dhabi Non-ADNOC Demand) 19, ,503 21,029 MW 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 Historic 7% Growth Rate (Emirate of Abu Dhabi Non-ADNOC Demand) 17,210 Population Scenario 17,210 15,330 14,111 14,340 13,426 13,607 3,077 2,194 12,903 15,866 18,559 17,751 16,808 16,154 15,543 14,903 6,289 5,115 4,047 Emirate of Abu Dhabi's 2010 Non Comparison (MW) 10,874 ADNOC Demand 8,563 13,385 : Export / ADNOC Only 9,934 8, ,563 8, ,7409,582 10,454 1,392 10,122 14,903 : Population Growth 15,866 : 7% Non-ADNOC 18,754 16,794 7,581 19,845 17,487 9,002 18,238 10, ,000 6,000 5,000 1,434 1,668 2,380 17,210 : 10% Non-ADNOC 2,451 2,461 2,468 2,497 2,547 4,000 3,000 2, ,816 3,936 4,062 4,301 4,555 4,824 5,108 5,411 1, ,737 2,075 2,

13 MW 32,000 31,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 Global Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts 2010 Emirate of Abu Dhabi Non-ADNOC ADNOC Export related Auxiliaires& Losses Total Exports 27,000 Project Based + EMAL Phase 2 (1100 MW 2014) + Industry as Submitted 26,000 Project Based + EMAL Phase 2 (1100 MW 2014) 25,000 24,000 Recent 10% Growth Rate (Emirate of Abu Dhabi Non-ADNOC Demand) 23,000 Historic 7% Growth Rate (Emirate of Abu Dhabi Non-ADNOC Demand) 22,000 Population Scenario 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,563 8,563 8,563 ADWEC Winter 2010 / 2011 Project Based Demand Forecast 10,714 10,235 9,740 9,934 9,582 12,042 11,246 10,874 10,454 10,122 15,963 14,758 14,111 13,426 12,903 19,078 17,520 16,420 15,330 14,340 13,607 ` 21,391 19,632 18,532 17,210 15,866 14,903 Emirate of Abu Dhabi's 2010 Non- ADNOC Demand 23,073 21,197 20,097 18,559 16,808 15,543 25,345 23,628 22,528 19,967 17,751 16, Comparison (MW) 13,385 : Export / ADNOC Only 14,903 : Population Growth ,000 15,866 : 7% Non-ADNOC 7,000 6,000 5,000 4, ,000 2,000 1, , ,075 2,103 1,434 1,668 2,380 2,461 17,210 2,451 : 10% Non-ADNOC Project Based Forecast is ADWEC s Base Case demand forecast. 26,741 25,261 24,161 21,503 18,754 2,468 18,532 : Project Based Forecast 3,816 3,936 4,062 4,301 4,555 4,824 5,108 5, ,794 28,290 27,181 26,081 23,202 19,845 2,497 17,487 30,530 29,288 28,188 25,079 21,029 2,547 18,238 13

14 Global Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts ( ) Peak MW Global Demand Forecast (including Exports) p.a. 8,563 9,307 9,542 12,060 12,428 13,385 Common Export / ADNOC Assumptions ONLY 9.3% 8,563 9,582 10,122 12,903 13,607 14, Population Growth 11.7% 8,563 9,740 10,454 13,426 14,340 15, % Non-ADNOC Demand 13.1% 8,563 9,934 10,874 14,111 15,330 17, % Non-ADNOC Demand 15.0% 8,563 10,235 11,246 14,758 16,420 18, Project Based - Base Case Forecast 16.7% 8,563 10,235 11,246 14,758 17,520 19, Forecast 4 + EMAL Phase II 18.1% 8,563 10,714 12,042 15,963 19,078 21, Forecast 5 + Unadjusted Industry Submissions 20.1% 14

15 11,000 Cumulative Incremental Electricity Peak Demands Post-2010 (Project Based Forecast) 10,052 10,000 Northern Emirates Auxiliaries & Pumping 9,000 Northen Emirates Exports (including losses) Auxiliaries (Emirate of Abu Dhabi) Exports Workers Camps 2,406 8,000 Transport Mega Projects ed Peak MW (inc cluding losses) 7,000 6,000 5,000 ADNOC Industry Residential / Commercial Identified Projects Residential / Commercial Other Emirate of Abu Dhabi Diversified Global Diversified Global (Undiversified) Change from 2010 Actuals Emirate of Abu Dhabi 6,180 Exports 2,155 7, ADNOC 2,124 Undiversifi 4,000 3, ,862 ADNOC 1,178 Industry 2,159 2,000 1, , , Industry 967 Residential / Commercial Identified Projects Residential / Commercial Identified Projects 1,112 2,

16 Water Demand Forecast 16

17 ADWEC Water Demand Forecast ( ) Overview Water Demand is forecast to grow by around 5% p.a. Demand Emirate of Abu Dhabi +61% Global (including Exports) +67% Emirate of Abu Dhabi Water Demand 4.9% p.a. (Global 5.3% p.a.) Residential / Commercial Mega Projects account for nearly 50% of net increase. Bulk & Other sector accounts for 33% of net increase. Industry accounts for the remaining i net increase in demand. d Domestic, Villas, Shabiat & Agriculture expected to remain broadly flat or decline. Water Exports +250% In 2011 Water Exports +70% 17

18 ADWEC Water Regional Demand Forecast , ,058 1,036 Exports Western Region 1,083 1,004 1,102 1,023 1,125 1, Peak MIG GD Al Ain Region Northern Emirates Supply (Including Auxiliaries & Losses ) 400 Abu Dhabi Emirate Auxilliaries 200 Abu Dhabi Region Western Region Al Ain Region Abu Dhabi Region Global Demand Forecast * Emirate of Abu Dhabi System Peak + Auxilliaries

19 ADWEC Winter 2010 / 2011 Water Demand Forecast , , , ,083 1,004 1,102 1,023 1,125 1, Peak MIGD Northern Emirates Supply (Including Auxiliaries & Losses ) Industrial (including ADNOC) 400 Agricultural Abu Dhabi Emirate Auxilliaries 300 Shabiat Villas 200 Domestic Residential / Commercial Mega Projects Bulk & Other *** 100 Global Demand Forecast * Emirate of Abu Dhabi System Peak + Auxilliaries

20 Fuel Demand Forecast 20

21 ADWEC Fuel Demand Forecast Each year ADWEC prepares: 1. Peak Demand Forecasts 2. GWh Annual Energy Forecasts based on (a) Peak Demand Forecasts (b) Changing Load Profiles 3. Fuel Demand Forecasts based on the GWh Annual Energy Forecasts ADWEC submits the Fuel Demand Forecasts to its fuel suppliers : ADNOC Dolphin Energy Limited (DEL) so that they can make the necessary fuel supply arrangements. 21

22 ADWEC Energy (GWh) Demand Forecast Project Based Forecast , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90, , , , , , , , , ,000 GWh 22

23 ADWEC Fuel Demand Forecast Before Deducting the Contribution of Nuclear / Renewables to Reducing Fuel Demand Volumetric Gas demand (Mscft) Global l yearly Consumption Mscft 563, , , ,773 1,000,702 1,111, ,187, ,307,809 1,375,657 1,457,956 1,539,728 Average daily Consumption Mscft 1,544 1,839 1,924 2,495 2,742 3,045 3,245 3,583 3,769 3,994 4,207 Peak Daily Consumption. Mscft 1,848 2,091 2,272 2,938 3,228 3,585 3,831 4,219 4,438 4,703 4,967 ADWEC Energy Demand forecast ( Btu's) Global yearly Consumption BBTu 588, , , ,758 1,045,733 1,161, ,241, ,366, ,437,561 1,523, ,609, Average daily Consumption BBTu 1,613 1,922 2,011 2,608 2,865 3,182 3,391 3,744 3,939 4,174 4,396 Peak Daily Consumption. BBTu 1,932 2,185 2,374 3,070 3,373 3,747 4,004 4,409 4,637 4,915 5,190 After Deducting the Contribution of Nuclear / Renewables to Reducing Fuel Demand Volumetric Gas demand (Mscft) Global yearly Consumption Mscft 563, , , , ,361 1,094,393 1,166,796 1,155,510 1,121,096 1,105,738 1,094,306 Average daily Consumption Mscft 1,543 1,837 1,917 2,470 2,711 2,998 3,197 3,166 3,071 3,029 2,998 Peak Daily Consumption. Mscft 1,848 2,088 2,259 2,913 3,197 3,539 3,774 3,801 3,739 3,737 3,745 ADWEC Energy Demand forecast ( Btu's) Global yearly Consumption BBTu 588, , , ,279 1,033,883 1,143,641 1,219,302 1,207,508 1,171,545 1,155,496 1,143,550 Average daily Consumption BBTu 1,613 1,919 2,003 2,582 2,833 3,133 3,341 3,308 3,210 3,166 3,133 Peak Daily Consumption. BBTu , , , , , , , ,972 3, , ,913 Nuclear / Renewables reduces 2020 Peak Fuel Demand Forecast by around 25% 23

24 Summary 24

25 Summary Peak Demand Forecasts (MW / MIGD) Average Per Annum Growth Rates Electricity Water Emirate of Abu Dhabi 9.1% 4.3% Global (including Exports) 12.0% 5.0% Average Per Annum Growth Rates Electricity Water Emirate of Abu Dhabi 12.5% 4.9% Global l (including Exports) 12.65% 53% 5.3% Electricity (Project Based) Forecast (MW) Emirate of Abu Dhabi 6,885 14,052 22,356 Global (including Exports) 8,563 18,532 28,188 Water (MIGD) Emirate of fabu Dhabi ,046 Global (including Exports) 672 1,007 1,125 25

26 Thank You 26

27 Annexes 27

28 Population 3 kw per Capita 2010 Peak Per Capita Analysis 2010 Actual Peak Electricity Demand Emirate of Abu Dhabi ONLY 6,885 Peak Demand (14th July 2010) 717 Auxilairies 256 ADNOC 270 Industry 5,642 Non-Industrial / Non-ADNOC Demand % losses 5,129 Residential / Commercial End User Demand 1,710, Population (ADWEC estimate) 3.00 kw Peak per Capita Above is End-User Demands excluding Auxiliaries, Losses, Industry / ADNOC Population Based Demand Forecast : based on 3 kw Peak per Capita assumption. = 2010 Non-ADNOC Demand + Population Increase post-2010 x 3 kw (+losses) 28

29 Emirate of Abu Dhabi s Non-ADNOC Demand Forecast 7% p.a. and 10% p.a. Emirate of Abu Dhabi's Peak Electricity Demand Growth Rates System Peak (MW) Average Growth Rate , , % , % , % , % , % 1% Conclusion: Scenarios of 7% per annum & 10% per annum are Valid Emirate of Abu Dhabi Scenario Growth Rates Emirate of Abu Dhabi very little ADNOC related electricity demand provides a good historic proxy for the growth rate of Non-ADNOC demand electricity demand grew at about 7% per annum. Looking forwards mega projects / industrial demand expected to result growth rate >7% electricity demand has grown > 10% in 3 out of 4 years average electricity demand 9.5% per annum. 29