RENEWABLE ENERGY POWERED DESALINATION : A SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION TO THE IRANIAN WATER CRISIS

Transcription

1 RENEWABLE ENERGY POWERED DESALINATION : A SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION TO THE IRANIAN WATER CRISIS Upeksha Caldera, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Mahdi Fasihi, Arman Aghahosseini and Christian Breyer Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland 6th NCE Researchers Seminar, Lappeenranta, August

2 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Summary 2

3 Motivation Increasing shortage of renewable water resources to meet Iran s water demand Growth of conventional water supply solution of dams is limited Climate change threatens the renewable water resource further Seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination enables to utilise vast water resource from Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman 100% renewable energy powered desalination eliminates dependence on fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions Prior research illustrate economic viability of global 100% renewable energy powered SWRO systems ( _of_seawater_ro_desalination_based_on_solar_pv_and_wind_e nergy_a_global_estimate ) Projected Water Stress for the 2030 optimistic scenario in Iran. Southern and central regions of Iran suffer from deteriorating water stress, even in an optmistic scenario. Source: Luck et al., 2015; Faramarzi M. et al.,

4 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Summary 4

5 Key Objective Municipal, industrial and agricultural water demands are met. Industrial demand excludes water withdrawal for thermal power plants. A 100% renewable energy power system is assumed for Iran. Water storage ensures supply of water at all times. SWRO plants are powered through hybrid renewable energy power plants. High Voltage DC power lines transport power to SWRO plants located on the coast of the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf. Caspian sea is excluded. Research question: Can future water demand of Iran be met through 100% renewable energy powered SWRO plants at a cost level competitive with current fossil powered SWRO plants? Desalination system proposed to meet the future water demand of Iran 5

6 Methodology Key Concept, Model and Input Data Levelised cost of water ( /m 3 ) Levelised cost of water production at desalination plant + Levelised cost of water transportation from desalination plant to demand site Similar approach to the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) LUT energy model Analyses LCOW for regions with water stress in Iran, based on a multi-node approach Spatial resolution of 0.45 x 0.45 and hourly temporal resolution Input data to model: Data are for 2030 optimistic scenario High and extremely high water stress regions considered Water demand Desalination demand estimated using logistic function of total water demand and water stress SWRO desalination system and renewable energy power plant costs Energy consumption of SWRO plants and water transportation Model determines least cost system that is the optimal solution for Iran 6

7 Data SWRO Desalination Cost for 2030 SWRO desalination plant Capex : 2.23 / (m 3 a) Lifetime : 30 years Baseload hours : System optimum Fixed Opex : 4% of Capex Energy consumption based on salinity of feed water. Approx range 2.80 kwh/m kwh/m 3 Water storage at desalination site Capex : 64.6 / m 3 Lifetime : 30 years Fixed Opex : 1.29 / m 3 Water transportation from desalination plant to demand site Piping Capex : / (km m 3 a ) Horizontal Pumping Capex : / (km m 3 hr ) Vertical Pumping Capex : / (m m 3 hr ) Horizontal energy consumption : 0.04 kwh/ (m 3 /hr) / 100 km Vertical energy consumption : 0.36 kwh/ (m 3 /hr) / 100 m 7

8 Data Hybrid Renewable Energy Power Plant Costs 2030 PV fixed-tilted plant Capex : 550 /kw Fixed Opex : 1.5% of capex PV single-axis tracking plants Capex : 620 /kw Fixed Opex : 1.5% of capex Power to Gas (PtG) Water electrolysis Capex : 380 /kw H2 Fixed Opex : 13 /(kw H2 a) CO 2 scrubbing Capex : 356 /kw SNG Fixed Opex : /(kw SNG a) Methanation Capex : 234 /kw SNG Fixed Opex : 13 /(kw SNG a) Wind power plant Capex : 1000 /kw Fixed Opex : 2% of capex Battery Capex : 150 /kwh Fixed Opex : 10 /(kwh a) 8 Gas storage : 0.05 /kwh WACC is 7%

9 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Summary 9

10 Results: Optimal Solution for Iran 2030 Least cost solution for Iran 2030 optimistic scenario comprise of PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis tracking wind power plant batteries and PtG plants 83% of the energy generated by hybrid PV-Wind power plants provided by PV. Total PV capacity required 392 GW. Total PV single-axis tracking capacity is 223 GW. Total desalination demand of the 2030 optimistic scenario in Iran approx. 215 million m 3 /day. By 2015 online SWRO capacity approx. 175,000 m 3 /day. Contribution of PV to the installed capacity of PV-Wind hybrid power plants 10

11 Results: Optimal Solution Levelised Cost of Electricity LCOE range of complete system 0.06 /kwh 0.10 /kwh Includes generation, transmission, curtailment and storage Higher LCOE in the northern parts due to lower full load hours of PV- Wind hybrid power plant. More battery and PtG plant capacities required, increasing the LCOE. LCOE range for the complete system in Iran

12 Results: Optimal Solution Levelised Cost of Water LCOW range of complete system 0.50 /m /m 3. Prevalent range 1.0 /m /m 3 Global model s LCOW range is approx /m /m 3 Current water production costs of SWRO plants in Hormozgan approx 0.70 /m 3. In the model the relevant LCOW range is approx /m /m 3 Higher LCOW in model due to inclusion of water pumping and water storage Energy cost for water pumping contributes approx. 30% towards LCOW in Iran. Global average contribution is 16%. Higher value is attributed to the elevation profile in Iran. LCOW range for a complete system in Iran

13 Results: Optimal Solution Impact of Batteries and Power to Gas Batteries and PtG allow higher full load hours of the desalination plant. Results in lower LCOW The use of PtG Provides upto 16% of the total energy demand Decreases excess energy by 32% to an average of 6% Reduced required PV capacity by 30% Increases wind capacity by 49% Decreases battery storage by 15% Decreases water storage by 40% Results in average LCOW decrease of approx. 10% Ratio of excess energy to total energy generation of system in Iran

14 Results: Optimal Solution Overview of System Required SWRO total desalination demand per day m 3 /day 2030 Optimal System for Iran 215 mill PV capacity installed GWp 392 PV fixed-tilted GWp 169 PV single-axis tracking GWp 223 LCOW of current fossil powered SWRO plants in Hormozgan: 0.70 /m 3 LCOW range in Hormozgan based on model: 0.50 /m /m 3 Wind capacity installed GW 83 Battery capacity installed TWh 270 PtG capacity installed GW el 62 Average excess energy curtailed % 6 Total Capex bn 1177 Annualised costs bn 142 LCOW range /m Prevalent LCOW range /m Higher costs in model due to energy demand for water pumping In the near future, LCOW of 100% renewable energy powered SWRO plants in Iran will be cost competitive with current fossil powered SWRO plants in Iran 14

15 Results: Optimal Solution Distribution of the Capital Cost Total Capex for complete system for Iran: 1177 bn Largest contributors to total capex Vertical transportation infrastructure ~18% SWRO desalination plants ~15% PV single-axis tracking ~12% Batteries ~10% Second most expensive contributor of the power plant 15

16 Results: Optimal Solution Distribution of Annualised System Capex and Opex Components (in bn ) Annualised Capex is 141 bn Annual Opex is 40 bn Electricity generation comprise of hybrid PV-Wind power plants, batteries and powerto-gas. Largest share of annualised costs. Piping capex (vertical and horizontal pumps and pipes) is the second largest share of annualised costs 16

17 Further developing the Iranian model The model for Iran can be refined with the following data sets: More accurate future water stress and water demand values for Iran. For instance, water stress should take into account the impact of climate change. Water demand should consider the complete removal of fossil fuel powered thermal power plants. Well-defined learning curve for SWRO desalination plants. Updated water transportation costs, specifically for Iran and the soil conditions. 17

18 Agenda Motivation Methodology and Data Results Summary 18

19 Summary An alternative water source is needed to meet Iran s future water demand amidst a renewable water scarcity. The LUT energy model is used to determine the least cost renewable energy power plant mix for Iran s 2030 desalination demand. By 2030 Iranian water demand can be met solely through 100% renewable energy powered SWRO plants at costs competitive with that of current fossil powered SWRO plants. The optimal solution for Iran comprise of PV fixed-tilted, PV single-axis tracking, wind power plants, batteries and power-to-gas. The resulting LCOW range is 0.50 /m /m 3. This includes cost of water production, water storage and transportation from desalination plant to demand site. Higher elevation profile of Iran and long distances results in increased water transporation costs. 19

20 Thank you for your attention! NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategy research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre. Please check next slides for an overview of all data, assumptions and references.

21 References Luck M., Landis M., Gassert F., 2015, Aqueduct Water Stress Projections: Decadal projections of water supply and demand using CMIP5 GCMs, Washington DC, World Resources Institute, [accessed: September 9, 2015], Faramarzi M., Abbaspour C. K., Schulin R., Yang H., 2009, Modelling blue and green water resources availability in Iran, Hydrological Processes, 23, Caldera U., Bogdanov D., Breyer Ch., 2016, Local cost of seawater RO desalination based on solar PV and wind energy: A global estimate, Desalination, 385, Madani K., 2014, Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis?, Journal of Environmental Studies Science, 4, Global Water Intelligence DesalData, 2016, Iran Country Profile, Oxford, United Kingdom, [accessed March 28, 2016] Karbassi A., Bidhendi G. N., Pejman A., Bidhendi M. E., 2010, Environmental impacts of desalination on the ecology of Lake Urmia, Journal of Great Lakes Research, 36, Middle East Business Intelligence, 2015, Special Report Power and Water. Tehran s dwindling water supplies, Dubai, United Arab Emirates,15-28, Tasnim News Agency, 2015, Iran to supply drinking water to 16 provinces through desalination: Minister, Tehran, Iran, [accessed March 23, 2016] 21