SGN Energy Futures. Angus Mcintosh Director of Energy Futures. December 2018

Transcription

1 SGN Energy Futures Angus Mcintosh Director of Energy Futures December 2018

2 Policy Context Decarbonising heat is our most difficult policy and technology challenge to meeting carbon targets Clean Growth Strategy (BEIS, October 2017) The UK and Scottish Governments have committed to targets to reduce carbon emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 Implies the need for low or zero carbon heat by 2050 BEIS developing the evidence base to set up heat policy decisions in first half of the 2020s Scottish Government aiming for 35% low carbon heat by 2032 and 50% of all energy from renewables by 2030 Approach to decarbonise buildings on the gas grid in Scotland will depend on UK gov. decisions in the early 2020s on the long term future of the gas grid Scotland looking towards a 90% emissions cut by

3 Scottish Government Energy Strategy Two indicative scenarios for the 2050 energy system: 1 An Electric Future 2 A Hydrogen Future 3

4 Decarbonisation of heat Advancing the decarbonisation of heat Our vision for 2023 We make valued contributions to the development of the future energy system. We have readied our network to meet the challenges of decarbonisation, repurposing it to accommodate renewable, lowcarbon energy from diverse sources and supporting new markets for green-gas.

5 Meeting customer demand- 1 March

6 Future Energy Scenarios - Networks Market State Estimate for Broad Market Application Gas Mix Networks Commercial Studies (techno/econ) Steady State Flexible Networks Highly Flexible Networks Repurposed Networks Immediate deployment Roll out Roll out Roll out post 2030 Bio-methane Bio-SNG St Fergus 2% Hy-deploy Oxygen content Cornwall Energy Leyland CNG Island Fife Hydrogen Fuel Cell/Heat Siloxanes Aberdeen H2 Buses pump FREEDOM/Pathfind er Real time Networks Future Billing Distributed Sources Oban Methodology of Gas I & C gas quality impacts Energy Map 2050 H100 H21 NIC IoG/London I&C Hydrogen Standard Working Group Hyhouse BIG HIT (Orkney) Hystorpor Acorn (CCS) HyNet CO2 capture HyGen Hypublic Hynet H21 Leeds *Not exhaustive 6

7 Future Energy Scenarios Networks Gas quality decarbonisation pathway Now Securing supply/removing barriers and enabling change Replacement programme/ Green gas MRPS Programme Biomethane/ BioSNG GSMR OGM I&C Gas Quality Billing FBM RTN Stimulating Hydrogen Economy 2% H2 Acorn St Fergus IoG <20% H2 Downstream renewables/whole systems/pathfinder Hydeploy I & C Gas Quality HyNet Strategic change 20-80% H2 LTS Futures SIU project Smart appliances Fully decarbonised 100% H2 H100 H21 Hy4Heat All steps lead to lower carbon No regrets/no disruption for domestic customers 7

8 A key challenge Hydrogen Shale LNG Biomethane North Sea Gas Processing regulations 8

9 Oban project: opening up the gas market 9

10 Biomethane 10

11 BioSNG 11

12 H2 Blend up to 20% Hydeploy (Cadent) 12

13 Hydeploy 13

14 Real-time Networks 14

15 Downstream Renewables Daily Demand Reduced peak demand CFC&HP Increased consumption CFC&HP Released network capacity 15

16 FBM Future Billing 16

17 FBM 17

18 100% H 2 Projects Site 2 Site 1 Appliance stimulus (BEIS) Network conversion Features Site 3 Generation, storage and CCS Construction Demonstration 100% H 2 Collaborative Parallel evidence toward conversion 18

19 H 2 Road to social proof Commercial acceptance Cost Shipper Commercially viable Commercial viability Appliance choice/performance Odourant Network materials Stakeholder strategy Incentives Flame picture Deflagration to Detonation risk Destination social proof Safety acceptance Gas escape management Appliance safety Safety case H 2 conversion Plant safety 19

20 Hydrogen network Production Conversion Storage Transportation Carbon capture Utilisation Distribution 20

21 Material testing - Hydrogen 21

22 PE Materials - pipe and fittings 10,000 hr H² accelerated ageing test rig 22

23 Materials Excess flow valve test rig 23

24 Odorant selection process 24

25 Candidate odorants under test Odorant compound Rationale 1 Odorant NB (78% TBM, 22% DMS) In use by SGN and UK 2 Standby odorant 2 (34 % Odorant NB, 64 % Hexane) In use by SGN 3 Odorant THT (100 % THT) In use by SGN and Europe 4 GASODOR-S-FREE (34% MA, 601% EA, 2.5% EMP) 5 5-ethylidene-2-norbornene Sulphur-free odorant in use in Germany Suitable for fuel cells with unpleasant odour 25

26 Hydrogen characteristics 26

27 Hydrogen Characteristics Hydrogen Flux measurement Leak ( Under Beam Start 30 seconds 120 Seconds 180 seconds 27

28 Search zone for gas escape H 2 search zone? Natural gas search zone Gas escape location 28

29 PRS Hazardous Area H 2 Hazardous Area? Natural Gas Hazardous Area 29

30 Consequence testing 30

31 Consequence testing - FIB 31

32 Consequence Testing Ph2 Boiler before delayed ignition Boiler damage after delayed ignition 32

33 Consequence Testing Phase 2 Boiler before delayed ignition Boiler damage after delayed hydrogen ignition 33

34 Relative risks to the home Risk = number of fatalities per million people per year CO poisoning from solid fuel appliance = 9.40 x64 Electrocution in the home = x2 H 2? Lighting strike = x123 Baseline risk; CO poisoning from natural gas appliance at Wobbe Index (WI) of 51.4 MJ/m³ = H? 2 34

35 Interpreting the QRA Understanding the risk drivers 1. Likelihood of release 35

36 QRA example gas entering a building 36

37 Odorant selection process 37

38 Candidate odorants to be tested Odorant compound Rationale 1 Odorant NB (78% TBM, 22% DMS) In use by SGN and UK 2 Standby odorant 2 (34 % Odorant NB, 64 % Hexane) In use by SGN 3 Odorant THT (100 % THT) In use by SGN and Europe 4 GASODOR-S-FREE (34% MA, 601% EA, 2.5% EMP) 5 5-ethylidene-2-norbornene Sulphur-free odorant in use in Germany Suitable for fuel cells with unpleasant odour 38

39 PE Materials - pipe and fittings 10,000 hr H² accelerated ageing test rig 39

40 Materials Excess flow valve test rig 40

41 Hydrogen Characteristics Hydrogen Flux measurement Leak ( Under Beam Start 30 seconds 120 Seconds 180 seconds 41

42 Consequence Testing Ph2 Boiler before delayed ignition Boiler damage after delayed ignition 42

43 Consequence Testing Phase 2 Boiler before delayed ignition Boiler damage after delayed hydrogen ignition 43

44 PRS Hazardous Area H 2 Hazardous Area? Natural Gas Hazardous Area 44

45 Search zone for gas escape H 2 search zone? Natural gas search zone Gas escape location 45

46 Relative risks to the home Risk = number of fatalities per million people per year CO poisoning from solid fuel appliance = 9.40 x64 Electrocution in the home = x2 H 2? Lighting strike = x123 Baseline risk; CO poisoning from natural gas appliance at Wobbe Index (WI) of 51.4 MJ/m³ = H? 2 46

47 Levenmouth Innovation Zone Innovation Zone Fife Renewable Innovation Centre Hydrogen Office 47

48 Fife H 2 vehicles 48

49 Levenmouth Turbine 49

50 Project Methilltoune 50

51 Levenmouth example future vision Wind farm expansion Neart Na Gaoithe (NNG) wind farm array Industrial byproduct expansion (Mossmorran Ethylene Plant, circa tonnes p/a) Hydrogen vehicle fuel (Fife Council) 51

52 MACC Business Park and Airport 52

53 MACC Business Park and Airport 53

54 Aberdeen Bridge of Don 54

55 Aberdeen H 2 Buses 55

56 Aberdeen Vision example 56

57 Project Cavendish Hydrogen for South London 57

58 LTS Future Granton to Grangemouth 8 ) 58

59 Whole Systems East Neuk project 59

60 Thank you