Climate driven changes in European vegetation as simulated by the LPJ-GUESS

Transcription

1 Climate driven changes in European vegetation as simulated by the LPJ-GUESS Preliminary results of VR LANDCLIM project Anneli Poska, Ben Smith, Dörte Lehsten

2 Preliminary results of VR LANDCLIM project: input and parameterisation RCA based simulation of European vegetation DVGM: LPJ-Guess v. 2.1 in cohort mode (migration and land use are not implemented); Climate and CO 2 parameters: RCA (Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model) data for two time-slices (6000 BP and 1800 AD); Soil data: soil texture code from CRU database; PFT parametrisation: standard, species based setup for Europe (Hickler et al 2010).

3 Dynamic vegetation models (DVM) Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) attempt to describe patterns and trends in vegetation structure and functioning based on a representation of basic ecosystem processes, their interactions and response to abiotic drivers LPJ DGVM (Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, Sitch et al., 2003) is a generalized, process-based model of vegetation dynamics and biogeochemistry designed for global applications. LPJ - Guess (General Ecosystem Simulator, Smith et al., 2001) uses individual based gap-model approach and is optimised to study regional changes on decennial-centennial timescales.

4 LPJ-GUESS: A modular, individual-based process-oriented ecosystem model* Stand (grid cell) CO 2 Climate (temp, prec, radiation) Soil texture Physiology, phenology & growth Soil biogeochemistry Population dynamics & disturbance Soil organic matter Vegetation *Smith et al Global Ecology and Biogeography 10: 621

5 Plant Functional Types (PFTs) PFT (Plant Functional Types) are used by DGVMs for vegetation representation. PFT is a term that groups plants according to their function in ecosystem and their use of resources and can embrace: Taxonomic groups such as willows, maples, sedges or grasses; Groups based on life-form characteristics e.g., trees, shrubs, herbs, lianas, graminoids, etc. Groups based on specific combination of physiological, morphological, biochemical and bioclimatic properties e.g., boreal evergreen shade intolerant tree.

6 LPJ-GUESS: Representation of vegetation (cohort mode) Modelled area (stand) 10 ha km 2 replicate patches in various stages of development Average individual for plant functional type or species cohort in patch crown area leaves LAI height leaves / LAI stem diameter sapwood heartwood 0-50 cm cm fine roots fine roots tree grass Patch 0.1 ha

7 LPJ-GUESS: Plant Functional Types (PFTs) LPJ-GUESS uses two types of PFT groupings: Taxonomic (species based); Physiological, morphological and bioclimatic properties based. Parameter bioclimatic distribution boreal temperate boreal-temperate no limits leaf phenology evergreen summergreen summergreen summergreenraingreen leaf:sapwood area ratio (m 2 cm 2 ) crown spreading max establishment rate (ha 1 yr 1 )

8 VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic variables Twmin(ºC) Tcmin(ºC)

9 VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic variables Swcont GDD5

10 VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic niche (Picea abies) RCA 6000 BP PFT: Picea abies (global PFT: TBE1) Bioclimatic limits: tcmin_est -30 tcmax_est -1.5 twmin_est 5 gdd5min_est 600 Tcmin(ºC) GDD5 Twmin(ºC) Cover fraction

11 VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic niche (Fagus sylvatica) RCA 6000 BP PFT: Fagus sylvatica (global PFT: TBS) Bioclimatic limits: tcmin_est -3.5 tcmax_est 6 twmin_est 5 gdd5min_est 1500 Tcmin(ºC) GDD5 Twmin(ºC) Cover fraction

12 VR LANDCLIM project: LPJ-GUESS output Dominant global PFT Dominant RCA PFT Veg. cover fraction 1800 AD 6000 BP

13 VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing Migration (based on preliminary results of ECOCHANGE project) Picea abies Fagus sylvatica Land-use Kaplan (Kaplan et al 2009) HYDE (Klein Goldewijk 2001)

14 VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (migration) RCA 6000 BP PFT: Picea abies (global: TBE1) Cover fraction Predicted migration Corrected cover fraction

15 VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (migration) Global PFT RCA PFT Veg. cover fraction 1800 AD 6000 BP

16 VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (land use) HYDE Kaplan 1800 AD 6000 BP

17 VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (Kaplan land use) Global PFT RCA PFT Veg. cover fraction 1800 AD 6000 BP

18 VR LANDCLIM project: Land-cover for RCA Original Migration Migration and landuse 1800 AD 6000 BP

19 Thank You!