Balkan Countries and Climate Change: A Capacity Building Program

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1 Balkan Countries and Climate Change: A Capacity Building Program Climate Change: an Ongoing Global Threat Life as we know it, is possible on Earth because of a natural greenhouse effect. The naturally occurring greenhouse gases, primarily water vapour (H 2 O), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and trace gases, such as methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) permit solar energy to enter and strike the earth as visible light, but then trap it within atmosphere as infrared heat. This phenomenon, keeps our planet warm enough to ensure the proper performance of the physiological functions of all living organisms. The absence of the greenhouse gases would lower the temperature of our planet by about 33 o C rendering Earth just another lifeless planet of our solar system. SOURCE: US Global Change Research Program: Climate Change / State of knowledge 1

2 The greenhouse effect, which for millions of years was a blessing for Earth, seems to turn into a serious threat, over the last century, as it is being enforced by human activities. With industrialisation and population growth, our greenhouse gas emissions from burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and clearing of land for agriculture - have consistently increased. For the past 100 years, we have been emitting greenhouse gases to the atmosphere faster than natural processes can remove them. In addition, new synthetic gases, such as chloroflorocarbons and halons (CFCs) are being emitted and ascertained to act in a greenhouse way. During this time, atmospheric levels of these gases have climbed steadily and are projected to continue their steep ascent as global economies grow. These steady additions have begun to tip a delicate balance, significantly increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and enhancing their insulating effect. Records of past climate going as far back as 160,000 years indicate a close correlation between the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and global temperatures. As early as 1896, the great Swedish chemist Svente Arrhenius suggested that burning enough fossil fuels to double atmospheric CO 2 concentrations might raise average global temperatures by 5.5 o C. This is not far from the 1.5 o C to 4.5 o C increase that current computer simulations of the climate project for a doubling of atmospheric CO 2. In 1995 the world scientific community reports Carbon Dioxide Concentrations parts per million

3 that change is already underway and Earth has warmed about 0.5 o C over the last century. In January 2001 the UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) officially stated that human influence is the main factor for today's global warming. This statement was of major importance since until then there were voices ascribing global warming to solar activity, natural climate fluctuations or bugs in the computer models. The quantitative predictions regarding future situation are still uncertain. In 1995 IPCC estimated that global surface air temperature would increase another 1 o C o C by 2100, while in 2001 the predicted rise of temperature came to 1.4 o C 5.8 o C. The best scenario is that we will experience warming of about 2 o C by 2100, which would be a faster rate of climate change than any experienced during the last 10,000 years, the period in which modern civilization developed. Warming of this magnitude will affect many aspects of our lives as it changes temperature and precipitation patterns, induces sea level rise, and alters the distribution of fresh water supplies. The impacts on our health, the vitality of forests and other natural areas, and the productivity of agriculture are all likely to be significant. A warmer Earth speeds up the global water cycle: the exchange of water among the oceans, atmosphere, and land. Higher temperatures cause more evaporation, and soils will tend to dry out faster. Increased amounts of water in the atmosphere will mean more rain or snow overall. We may be seeing the first signs of changes in the water cycle. Such events can cause flooding, soil erosion, and even loss of life. In some other areas though, increased evaporation leads to drought because the heavy rains fall elsewhere. PRECIPITATION ANNUAL (US Global Change Research Program: Climate Change / State of knowledge) 3

4 Global mean sea level has risen 10 to 25 cm over the last 100 years, mainly because water expands when heated. The melting of glaciers, which has occurred worldwide over the last century, also contributes to the rise. Formerly frozen soils (permafrost) in the Alaskan and Siberian arctic have also begun to melt, damaging both ecosystems and infrastructure. Melting and tundra warming will also lead to decay of organic matter and the release of trapped carbon and methane, creating an additional source of greenhouse gases. As the risks of global climate change become increasingly apparent, there is a genuine need to focus on actions to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and minimize the adverse impacts of a changing climate. In general, people in developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change because of limited infrastructure and capital and greater dependence on natural resources. International Initiatives on the Climate Change Issue In the 80s, scientific evidence about global climate change and its consequences led to growing concern among scientists, policy makers, and the public. In 1992 the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in Rio de Janeiro. Under this framework, a number of obligations for all countries had been established mainly towards the elaboration and implementation of policies for reducing the Green House Gases (GHG) emissions. However, as the response of the developed countries (which are the main producers of GHG) proved to be rather lax, the Berlin Mandate was introduced in 1995, which established a negotiation process in order to strengthen the commitments under the UNFCCC for the period after This process finally led to the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) in In this map (created by USA World Resources Institute) the various regions are presented not according to their geographical area but according to their greenhouse gases emissions. Here it is mostly evident the vast responsibility of the developed countries (mainly USA, Europe and Japan). These countries should undertake the major effort for the interception of the phenomenon. 4

5 The Kyoto Protocol (KP) represents a very important step towards the limitation of the 6 greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 ) emissions, since for the first time legally binding commitments are being specified. According to the KP the developed countries have specific obligations: during the first commitment period (i.e., ), they have to reduce their overall GHG emissions by at least 5% in comparison to the 1990 levels. Agreed targets were differentiated among developed countries (e.g. USA committed for a reduction of its GHG emissions by 7%, the European Union (EU) as a whole by 8%, Japan and Canada by 6%), while the same was true for Member States within EU according to the burden-sharing agreement internally adopted. Recently, USA revoked their commitment over the KP, exciting the global society. In 1998, during the UNFCCC 4th Conference Of the Parties (COP), the Buenos Aires Action Plan was established, which planed a specific time schedule for the implementation of the KP. Following this plan, COP6 took place in The Hague in November 2000, having as a main task to reach agreement on the major operational issues of the KP. Because of the significant divergence of views among the Parties regarding key issues, it was not possible to reach an agreement by the end of this formal meeting and the meeting was resumed in July 2001 in Bonn (COP6-bis). During the high-level segment that took place at COP6-bis, ministers reached a political agreement on the core issues related to the operational issues of the KP. This political agreement has already been translated into legal technical text for all issues apart from compliance, flexible mechanisms and Articles 5,7 and 8 of the KP (reporting, monitoring and review). The work will be completed in the forthcoming meeting in October 2001 in Marrakesh (COP7).» Capacity Building and Climate Change UNFCCC, recognising that the climate change issue, is of major importance, established a variety of commitments for all Parties to the Convention, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities. At its 5th and 6th session, COP encouraged Parties included in Annex II of the Convention (i.e. the most developed ones) to assist the countries with economies in transition (EITs) as well as the developing countries in enhancing their capabilities to achieve the objective of the Convention through the 5

6 implementation of the provisions of the Convention and the preparation for their effective participation in the Kyoto Protocol process. An integrated planning and implementation of relevant activities comprises of a number of actions, such as the development of national systems for the assessment of GHG emissions and removals from sinks, projections on the evolution of GHG emissions, and the determination / evaluation of potential measures for the reduction of emissions in the various sectors (energy, industry, residential / tertiary sector). The countries with Economies in Transition, as well as the Developing Countries, face major difficulties in undertaking such actions, due mainly to the limited use of environmentally friendly technologies, the lack of financial and human resources with the appropriate expertise, as well as the absence of appropriate effective administrative structures. Therefore Capacity Building in these countries is urgently needed. Priority actions within the Capacity Building framework were agreed after EITs and Developing Countries submitted their views. These actions comprise: National Inventories for GHG emissions Future Projections of GHG emissions Identification and assessment of policies and measures for the limitation of GHG emissions Estimation of potential climate change impacts and identification/assessment of potential adaptation measures Research and systematic observation Education, training and public awareness Exchange of scientific personnel Transfer of environmentally friendly technologies National Communications on the progress of policies and measures for GHG emissions reductions, as well as the development of relevant National Plans National systems for the assessment of GHG emissions National registries Development of relevant structures for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol Flexible Mechanisms, namely Joint Implementation (JI), Emissions Trading (ET), Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). 6

7 The Capacity Building Program for the Balkan countries The Capacity Building Program for the Balkan countries is an initiative of the Greek Ministry for the Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works. The program has an overall budget of about one million EURO and a total duration of 18 months. The Balkan countries involved in the program are Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, FYROM, Romania and Yugoslavia. All these countries have ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change, while two of them (Bulgaria and Romania) have also signed the Kyoto Protocol. These two countries belong to the Annex I of the Convention, while the rest are for the present not included in Annex I. Through this program, Greece, as an Annex II Party of the UNFCCC, aims to provide financial and technical support to the above mentioned countries in order to assist them in enhancing their capabilities to achieve the objectives of the Convention. This can be done through the implementation of the provisions of the Convention and the preparation for their effective participation in the Kyoto Protocol process. The National Observatory of Athens (NOA) coordinates the program. NOA is a public research centre responsible for the compilation of annual GHG emissions inventory in Greece on behalf of the Greek Ministry for the Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works. It is also the national focal point for the IPCC. Furthermore, NOA was responsible for the compilation of the 2nd National Communication under the UNFCCC, and acts as a technical consultant for co-competent ministries in issues related to climate change, policies and measures related to GHG emissions reduction, energy conservation and use of renewable energies. Lately, NOA helped other neighbouring countries in meeting their technical and reporting obligations under the FCCC. Four Greek partners are involved in the program: two Greek private consulting companies, namely EPEM S.A. and SPEED S.A., the National Technical University of Athens (Laboratory of Industrial and Energy Economics) and a Greek NGO, the Interdisciplinary Institute for Environmental Research (INIER). The program started at the beginning of 2001, while the kick-off meeting took place in Athens on March

8 The main objectives of the program are: Assistance to Balkan countries for the elaboration and implementation of reliable national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHG, coupled with the necessary supportive systems for data collection and management that is the elements which allow for an assessment of the current situation and observed trends. Assistance to Balkan countries in identifying, evaluating, and selecting appropriate measures for the reduction of GHG emissions, taking into account national priorities, constraints faced and infrastructure needs, as well as potential supportive policies and measures to overcome these difficulties. Identification of priority areas for action in Balkan countries within the framework of the KP Flexible Mechanisms. Assessment of the vulnerability of these countries to climate change. Improvement of the general environmental conditions in the Balkan peninsula Further development of financial and scientific collaboration between Greece and the other Balkan countries. In order to achieve these objectives, the program has the following tasks: (1) Compilation / Evaluation of GHG emissions inventory (2) Projections of GHG emissions (3) Identification and evaluation of policies and measures aiming to reduce GHG emissions (4) Formulation of a National Action Plan for the reduction of GHG emissions (5) Databases - Personnel training (6) Evaluation of existing administrative structures (7) Facilitation of the transfer of energy conservation technologies and environmentally sound technologies (8) Assessment of needs for adjustments of the existing national legal framework related to the exploitation of flexible mechanisms (9) Definition of priority areas for flexible mechanisms (10) Public awareness The successful implementation of the program requires the active participation of all governmental and non-governmental organizations throughout the countries involved in the program. In this way reliable data will be collected while the results from each different task will meet the needs of the countries in question regarding climate change. Furthermore, the active participation of all actors involved will safeguard the continuation of climate change related activities in the future under local responsibility and will promote the collaboration between countries in this crucial international environmental effort. 8