Vietnam- NCAP Study CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN HUONG RIVER BASIN AND ADAPTATION IN THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE

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1 Vietnam- NCAP Study CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN HUONG RIVER BASIN AND ADAPTATION IN THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE

2 Project Expert Team IMHEN Prof. Dr. Tran Thuc, Project Director Mr. Le Nguyen Tuong, Project Coordinator Prof Dr. Nguyen Trong Hieu, NE Dr. Tran Mai Kien, NE Dr. Hoang Minh Tuyen, NE Ms Huynh Thi Lan Huong, NE Mr. Dang Quang Thinh, NE Dr. Hoang Duc Cuong, NE Mr. Tran Quynh, NE Mr. Vuong Xuan Hoa, NE International consultants: Mr. Adriaan Tas Dr. Peter van der Werff Thua Thien Hue local experts Mr. Nguyen Huu Quyet, Hue group coordinator Mr. Nguyen Viet Hung, NE TTH DONRE Mr. Nguyen Viet, NE, Hue MC Province Mr. Pham Van Chien, NE, DN Ob. Mr. Le Van Thu, SEZ Ms Lam Thi Thu Suu, HU Nguyen Van Kham, DI Bùi i Thị Hai Yen, DARD Tran Viet Luc, DT Luong Quang ðoc HU Phan Thanh Hung, NE, TFMC

3 Study area - Huong basin Mountainous area in the west and in the south is 70% area of the province. Plain area is small along the coastal. It is around 9.78% natural area of the province The Huong river basin area is km2 Mean annual precipitation: mm

4 Activities Statistical processing Research and Modeling On site survey, Expert method, and stakeholder consultation

5 Key outputs Climate change and disasters in T.T.Hue Predicted Climate change and Climate change impacts in Thua Thien Hue Climate change strategy of province Capacity building for province and lessons

6 Climate change and disasters in Thua Thien Hue

7 Scine 1952 to 2005 there were 34 typhoons which impacted directly to Thua Thien Hue Typhoons impact to Thua Thien Hue

8 Period Annual mean Month max Month observed Daily max Date observed Change of temperature at A Luoi station O C Annual Temperature Change of rainfall at Hue Station Yea r Mưa năm Mưa tháng lớn nhất Mưa ngày lớn nhất Pic. Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of annual average temperature at A Luoi station

9 Number Floods in Huong river W. Level cm SH S.HƯƠNG S.BỒ Number of flood higher than warning level 3 in Thua Thien Hue: Year No flood 2007

10 Disasters and climate change and impacts in Thua Thien Hue Infrastru cture Sector Subject Sea level rise Pre. change Typhoon River flow change and flood Landslide River bank, sea dyke erosion Increase in temperature Transportation Water drainage Water supply Electricity Telecommunicati ons Agriculture Forestry Irrigation Aquaculture Biodiversity Water Resources Flash flood +++: Strong impact ++ : Medium impact + : Low impact - : Non-impact

11 Projected climate change and climate change impacts in Thua Thien Hue

12 Projected climate change in Thua Thien Hue Change of temperature compared with everage period Scenario Period A1F1 Year XII-II III-V VI-VIII IX-XI Change in rainfall compared with mean from (%) Scenario Year XII-II A1F1 III-V VI-VIII IX-XI Sea level rise compared (B2) scenario (cm) Station Hon Dau Vung Tau

13 Huong River Water resources Predicted impact of climate change on Huong river runoff % RIVER FLOW CHANGE IN III-V Năm 10 % Hữu trạch Tả trạch 5 Bồ % RIVER FLOW CHANGE IN IX-XI Năm Hữu trạch Tả trạch Bồ

14 Flood Flood area in Phu Vang district calculation under CC A1F Hmax (m) ,16 6,27 6,44 Fmax (km 2 ) Fmax (%) Predicted impacts of climate change in Thua Thien Hue Flood area in Thua Thien Hue under A1F1 CC Scenario Hmax (m) ,16 6,27 6,44 Fmax (km 2 ) Fmax (%)

15 Salinity intrusion Salinity change at Pho Nam and Phu Cam under scenario A1F1 Cross-section Parameter Phu Cam Salinity (PSU) (%o) (%) Pho Nam Salinity (PSU) (%o) (%) Predicted impacts of climate change in Thua Thien Hue Change in distance of 1%o and 4%o salinity intrusion Year 4%o B2 1%o 4%o A1F1 1%o

16 Climate change impact assessment Impacts on biodiversity Impacts on coastal area Impacts on water resources Impacts on agriculture Impacts on forestry Impacts on tourism Impacts on other sectors: Transport, hydropower..

17 Impacts on health and livelihoods of the people in the region especially aquaculture workers and families

18 Climate change policy in Thua Thien Hue

19 Climate change Policy and development plans of province 1. Plan for improving awareness and using climate change information; n; 2. Plan for requirement on climate change and sea level rise consideration in planning decision process; 3. Infrastructure adaptive to climate change 4. Reservoir, River and lagoon management regulation considering climate change 5. Enhance Disaster early warning forecast system 6. Awareness raising and community participation 7. Environmental strategic assessment considering climate change 8. Setting up and implementing climate change adaptation plan of actions Meeting with Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Thien Chairperson of the Provincial People s Committee

20 Climate change consideration into ICZM 1. Plan on CC awareness raise as a part of the ICZM capacity building 2. Enhance the coastal zone management regulation framework towards adaptive to climate change. 3. Re-assess the carrying capacity of coastal zone and lagoons and potential adaptive capacity to respond to climate change. 4. Plan for setting up requirement on climate change adaptation into EIA for projects in the coastal zone

21 1. Plan for adjustment Reasonable projection of area based on vulnerable maps. 2. Consideration CC into EIA for investment projects 3. Plan for considering sea level rise 50 cm in 2050 and 1m in 2100 for sea dyke, embankment, sea port constructions 4. Afforest and protect coastal forest 5. Construct storm shelter for ships, high strong building shelter for civilization. Climate change and Chan May - Lang Co economic zone. 6. Develop and operate the climate change observation, monitoring system in the area. source: Consultation group of CCP

22 Districts and communes: 1. Awareness raising on the impact of climate change. 2. Implement climate change mitigation policy and sustainable use of natural resources policy. 3. Development and implementation commune plan on disaster protection Districts disaster protection plan should be revised in CC Household: 1. Awareness raising on reasonable and effective use of natural resources and energy. 2. Participation in coastal forestation, protect irrigation and flood protection constructions. 3. Development of suitable handcraft adapting to climate change. Flooded point in historical flood in 1999

23 Capacity building for province and lessons

24 Stakeholder consultation and Capacity building for Province: Meetings, Interviews, workshops Interview on NCAP and CC for local TV broadcast PPC leader awareness and support 1. Decision-makers and public awareness improving 2. Nominating focal point for climate change Stakeholder Workshop activities in province (DONRE) 4. Technical expert team in province 5. Closer co-operation among different agencies in province 6. Plan Raising management capacity for ICZM 7. Plan for development PAPA on climate change under the NTP

25 The Lessons 1. Climate change information are highly scientific and uncertain. The local policy makers need a good interpretation for decision process 2. Climate change is long term process so that more effectiveness when focuses to long-term planning, policy/program. 3. Considering Climate change information by PPC and local agencies in revising development plans, ICZM strategy and strategic environmental assessment of Special Economic Zone is the NCAP project contribution to local planning process adapting to climate change 4. CC is cross sector issue, Strong policy coherence and co- ordination between provincial Dep. is needed.

26 The Lessons 5. The international technical assistance is very important: - To provide in time guideline and new methodology - Broad wide information from international sources overviewed by technical Advisor which have good influence on the local process. 6. Further international support is needed. The province is seeking donor for most prioritized: - Public awareness rising and implementing revised ICZM strategy in climate change condition. - Developing and implementing the provincial climate change adaptation program of action. 7. People know better how to adapt to CC but they need guidance and good organization. Further capacity building is needed.

27 Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Environment No. 5/62 Nguyen Chi Thanh str., Ha Noi Tel , Fax: Website: groups/ncap Thua Thien Hue sea-shore morning