ALternative Pathways toward Sustainable development and climate stabilization (ALPS) Objectives of the ALPS project 2

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1 Expert workshop towards further collaboration between Japanese research community and IIASA January 3 th, 217 ALternative Pathways toward Sustainable development and climate stabilization (ALPS) Junichiro Oda Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) Kyoto, Japan Contact us: jun-oda@rite.or.jp Objectives of the ALPS project 2 Overall Provide basic information and massage for policy maker using consistent model analyses ALPS (FY26 21) link climate change (mitigation) goals and SD goals ALPS II (FY ) explore possibility for green growth

2 Contents 3 Request from IGES (as of January 17 th ) : Introduce research project(s) of sustainable future scenarios (objectives; key assumptions; key findings; remaining challenges) actual conditions Today s contents: Four topics: 1. PM concentration of Indian coal power plant 2. Future scenario: poverty 3. Future scenario: steel production 4. Energy security Summary Remaining challenges Review of actual conditions: Indian coal power plant 4 PM concentration of exhaust gas from 343 plants [FY27-29] 5 > 5 > 5 By capacity 5 By vintage PM concentration mg/nm * *Standard 1986 (based on the Air Act 1981) * Plant capacity (MW) Commission date These reviews are basis for assumption and modeling study The figure suggests that the regulation is not sufficient for implementation Ref: Oda et al. (215) and Central Electricity Authority, Ministry of Power Performance Review of Thermal Power Stations , (214)

3 Future scenario: poverty 5 Global population below poverty line ( US$/d) Population below poverty line [billion] Asian Otherscountries, etc Sub-Saharan Africa CP4.5 3 CP3. 2 CP4.5 3 CP Note: RITE estimates based on the fixed Gini index and the incremental poverty line ( US$/d). People living in poverty will decrease drastically in the future Basic economic growth is significant Face-to-face survey on Pakistan (as of November 213) 6 Aftab Khan Usman Adil Renewables.4% Coal.2% They explained that Shortage of electricity and gas is severe, especially in the dry season The U.S., however, still rejects the gas pipeline project Iran-Pakistan(-India) Financial deficit of energy supply sector is significant The lower economic power limits their ability to cope with the energy shortage Electricity output in 213 Ref: IEA (216) Hydro 31% 14 TWh Nuclear 5% Natural gas 26% Oil 38% Electricity supply cost and price in 213 p (US /kwh) Ref: Oda et al. (214) based on the survey Oil Gas Current price supply cost

4 Future scenario: steel production 7 Scenario of crude steel production (Gt crude steel/y) SSP Lower middle Low SSP2 2.2 Low Lower middle SSP3 Low 2. Lower middle 2.7 Gt 1. Upper middle 1. Upper middle 1. Upper middle High High High SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Per capita steel stock in t 8.1 t 5.8 t Ref: RITE estimates Rapid economic growth (SSP1) enables us to reach stock-based society Basic economic growth is important also for long-term climate mitigation goals Relationship between per capita GDP and steel stock 8 per capita steel stock (t) India Steel stock in 25 (estimates) Korea Russia Japan China Canada U.S. Saudi Arabia France UAE, Qatar, etc Ref: estimates based on Pauliuk et al. (213) Norway Brunei per capita GDP PPP (1 US 25 $) Steel stock in 25 (assumption) SSP2 India Russia China Canada Korea Japan Norway France UAE, Qatar, etc 1.9 U.S. Brunei Saudi Arabia per capita GDP PPP (1 US 25 $) Per capita steel stock can be a 1.9 t, if per capita GDP reach the threshold value, which is assumed to increase with the global averaged per capita GDP Future work: more efficient use of steel; effect of climate mitigation and adaptation

5 Key findings: energy security 9 Results of energy security index (23 25) Vulnerable Independent Ref: RITE estimates The assumed energy security index represents vulnerability of oil and gas imports The relationship between climate mitigation and energy security varies by region The results depend on the balance of energy saving, renewables, and gas imports Condition of Asian countries 1 Why do we detect trade-off between climate mitigation and energy security in China and India? 1. Less capacity of CO 2 storage Asian share: 11% Heavy dependence on gas imports from the Middle East Ref: RITE estimates 2. Less resources of gas Asian share in 25: 17% (gas production in baseline) 3. Logistics Discussion If we allow to H 2 imports and/or CO 2 exports, we obtain different results

6 Summary 11 Review of actual conditions is a basis for our modeling study These modeling studies contribute to fact-based knowledge, which has a big role to accelerate the synergies and, weaken the trade-offs. Basic economic growth is important not only for SD goals but also long-term climate change mitigation goals. Remaining challenges 12 Specific More efficient use of steel (pre-)collision safety self-driving (autonomous) car Material substitution competition vs. coexistence General Value judgement issues Questionnaire survey also has a role for addressing the value judgement issues High grade Low grade Titanium Carbon fiber Aluminum Steel Cement Wood Laminated wood Safety Engineering (SE) method, New Constructor's Network, Japan