Alaska Science: Challenges, Approach, & Case Studies

Transcription

1 Alaska Science: Challenges, Approach, & Case Studies 1

2 Acknowledgements Alaska Science Team and Venture management Erling Westlien, Robert Raye, Susan Childs Investigators LGL, Greeneridge, JASCO, Olgoonik/Fairweather, Alaska Biological Research, Arctic Slope Energy Services, Arctic Hydrologic Consultants, ARCADIS, Reanier & Associates, Impact Weather, University of Alaska Fairbanks, University of Texas, University of Maryland, Collaborators ConocoPhillips, Statoil, Ion, National Fish & Wildlife Foundation, ADEC, North Slope Borough, Northwest Arctic Borough Associated & advising organizations Northern Pacific Research Board, BOEM, NOAA, Marine Mammal Co-Management Commissions, USGS 2

3 Agenda The place & Shell Alaska s program The challenges Challenging place to work Indigenous subsistence culture Well organized opposition Overview of the Science Program Case studies The Bowhead whale & industry activity Understanding the ecosystem a walrus perspective Ice forecasting Soft coral Q&A 3

4 Geography where we are operating Burger Sivuliq 4

5 The Challenges Extreme remote location Remote location Limited infrastructure Extremely cold temperatures Ice closed seas 8 10 months of the year Occasional high seas Limited available detailed ice and weather information 5

6 The Challenges Subsistence based indigenous culture The people of the North Slope are reliant on a subsistence lifestyle Bowhead whale is at the center of this culture Focus of community structure Very well organized Politically active Very astute to science and traditional knowledge Very concerned 6

7 The Challenges Subsistence concerns Fear and experience that industry activity may make bowheads and other animals more difficult to hunt Contamination from discharges and potential spills may taint their food source Impacts of sound and contamination on the food chain may lead to decline in subsistence resources Climate change impacts may result in fewer subsistence resources and difficulty hunting 7

8 The challenges unique, sensitive, and changing resources Whales Bowhead Beluga Orca Fin Humpback Pacific Walrus Ice Seals Polar Bear Abundant birds Spectacled eider Stellar s eider 8

9 The challenges regulatory complexity Federal Permits/Authorizations (continued) Application for Permit to Drill (APD); Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) Oil Spill Response Plan (OSRP); BSEE Nationwide Permit #5 Scientific Measuring Devices (NWP#5); United States Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) Nationwide Permit #6 Survey Activities (NWP #6); USACE Nationwide Permit #8 Oil and Gas Structures (NWP #8); USACE Title V Air Permitting; EPA National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) General Permits; EPA Certificate of Inspection; United States Coast Guard (USCG) Incidental Harassment Authorizations and Letters of Authorization (NMFS & USFWS) 9

10 The challenges regulatory complexity State of Alaska Permits Alaska Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (ADPES); Geotechnical Surveys in State Waters of Beaufort and Chukchi; Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) Title V Air Permitting; ADEC Geophysical Exploration Permit; Alaska Department of Natural Resources (ADNR) Fish Habitat Permit (Title 41); Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG) Temporary Water Use Permit; ADNR Land Use Permit; ADNR Tundra Travel Permit; ADNR North Slope Borough Permits Development Permit/Conditional Development Permit Inupiat History, Language & Culture (IHLC) Site clearance requirement 10

11 The Challenge NGOs Campaign High level of unity and organization among engos Political / public appeal Targeted perceived friendly administration Arctic is a unique and special place Showcased charismatic megafauna Adequacy of baseline data 2009 advertisement in the Alaska Daily News Gained traction with widespread acceptance of the insufficient data message Letter to President Obama with > 400 signatures of scientists 11

12 Alaska Venture Science Studies Program Monitoring Permit driven (compliance) Marine Mammal MP Threatened & Endangered Air Engineering & Technology Enabling both E & P Unmanned aerial Autonomous underwater On-ice seismic Sound mitigation Ice forces Baseline studies Provides basis for project design Identifies issues Fills data gaps Provides basis for NEPA documents (EIS) Ecological Ice/weather Ice gouge / streudel scour / soil testing Traditional knowledge 13

13 Alaska OCS Science Collaboration Majority of Shell science is through collaboration ConocoPhillips key along with Statoil, GXT, Pioneer, & ENI Universities (UAF, UT, UMD) and Government including USGS, BOEM, NOAA Research entities including NFWF, Northern Forum, SINTEF 60 % of Shell Alaska science is leveraged Shell - North Slope Borough Science Agreement to fund local community directed priorities w/ $5 million/5 years Shell/ConocoPhillips/Statoil NOAA agreement on sharing scientific studies data and ice and weather monitoring/forecasting 14

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15 Marine Mammal Observations Triad of Information Vessel based observations Thousands of km of observation in Chukchi Aerial observations Acoustics Open water since 2006 Year around since

16 Case Studies 20

17 Case Study the Bowhead Whale & Industry Activity 21

18 Case Study the Bowhead Whale & Industry Activity 22

19 Case Study the Bowhead Whale & Industry Activity Baseline db Elevated levels L-4 during anchor setting, anchor attachment, & mudline cellar Storm event Vessel activity can also be fairly loud Industry activity elevated sound levels at L-5 (Kaktovik) primarily during anchor setting Periods of vessel noise Acoustic baseline range 23

20 Case Study the Bowhead Whale & Industry Activity Drilling mud line cellar is relatively loud Mostly noise from bit on rock Drilling itself relatively quiet 1 km About 120 db Drops to 110 db by 8 km (5 mi) Significant drop off of noise in first 5 miles Periodic vessel noise drops out quickly 8 km 24

21 Case Study the Bowhead Whale & Industry Activity Cummulative Aug. 4 to Nov. 10 Relatively normal seasonal movements observed. Further offshore in early to mid September Closer to shore in October Movement throughout the period of industry activity Relatively few observations within 8 mi. of drilling operations 25

22 Case Study the Bowhead Whale & Industry Activity Prior to drilling and peak of the migration numerous detections near the drilling location Offshore Kaktovik relatively nearshore During anchor attachment few detections at drill location Unchanged off Kaktovik Apparent shift toward shore 26

23 Case Study the Bowhead Whale & Industry Activity Bowhead movement through the season Peaked around mid-september Seasonal shift from north to south May also be a relation to industry activity Kaktovik concentrations & distribution generally unchanged Daily variability related to observing conditions (weather) Trends consistent broad area trends Avoidance of the immediate vicinity of drilling Apparent but subject to further analysis Limited to area with 8-10 km (5-7 miles) Kaktovik hunt successful despite recent & on-going industry activity at Sivuliq 27

24 Case Study - The Ecosystem a walrus perspective Pacific walruses utilize relatively shallow continental shelf habitats Feed on benthic invertebrates at depths <100 m Spend time between foraging dives hauled out on ice, when available, or on land Distribution of concentrations of walruses is not uniform 28

25 Case Study - The Ecosystem a walrus perspective Bathymetry Steers Currents Herald Valley Herald Shoal Hannah Central Shoal Barrow Channel Canyon Mean northward flow due to global circulation from Pacific to Arctic Shallow Shoals Deeper Canyons and Channels Flow field follows the deeper areas 29

26 Case Study - The Ecosystem a walrus perspective Currents Effect Ice Retreat Ice retreats earliest over channels and latest over shoals Ice over Hanna Shoal tends to persist late into the season due to slow melting and grounding of multi-year ice 30

27 Case Study - The Ecosystem a walrus perspective When ice completely melts from the Chukchi P. walrus must find a place to haul out Establish large haulouts on shore Pt. Lay Offshore Kaseagaluk Lagoon Extremely vulnerable to disturbance 31

28 Case Study Ice and Weather Forecasting Employ an experienced team Robert Raye SIWAC Lead Jeff Andrews Lead Ice Analyst, 20+ yrs Gary Premo Ice Analyst, 20 + Fred Schmude Climatologist, 20+ George Harvey Marine meteorologist, 40+ Rob Mitchell Marine meteorologist, 32+ Mclean Barnett Marine meteorologist, 10+ Andrew Artzer Marine meteorologist, 6+ Gregory Deemer Graduate Intern Give them the right tools Synthetic Aperture Radar Satellite imagery Metocean buoys Field observations Numerical models 32

29 Case Study Ice and Weather Forecasting 33

30 Case Study Ice and Weather Forecasting 34

31 Case Study Ice and Weather Forecasting 35

32 Soft coral Greenpeace does science Greenpeace sent a research cruise into the Chukchi ahead of our drilling fleet Discovered a species of soft coral This would be the first specimen of coral ever collected in the Chukchi Sea We are rushing ahead to develop when we don t even know what s down there The Sea Raspberry is, in fact well known to science for more than 50 years Ubiquitous Well documented in our studies Rejection of proposal to list as endangered 36

33 Questions? 37