Subway and Railway Network is also rather improved. However, car ownership is very high. -> Transport CO 2 emission is large amount.

Transcription

1 The Role of Land Use and Transport System to lead Low Carbon City -Developing a Model System for Inventory Analysis of Urban Area- Hirokazu KATO

2 BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) has already introduced in Nagoya, but partially Key Route Bus System (Running Center Lane) Guideway Bus System (Elevated Exclusive Lane) Subway and Railway Network is also rather improved. However, car ownership is very high. -> Transport CO 2 emission is large amount. 1

3 Relationship between population density Car ownership 乗用車保有率 [vehicle es/1000 台人 persons] 富山 豊橋 and car ownership (2000) Toyota 青森 豊田 宇都宮四日市岐阜 長崎 Sapporo 札幌 神戸 Kobe Nagoya 名古屋 京都 Kyoto Yokohama 横浜 Osaka 大阪 Population density 可住地人口密度 in inhabitable 人 area /ha [parson/ha] Tokyo 東京区部 2

4 Kt-C/yr 1,800 1,600 1,200 CO 2 Emission from Nagoya City Industry -26.8% Freight 1,400 Transport 1, % 0 Real: +1.7% Short term target: -10% from 1990 s level Office, Shop +41.2% Paasenger Car +40.0% House +35.5% (target) Others Industry Freight Office&Shop Waste Passenger Car Home 3

5 Keyword for Reducing Transport CO 2 TOR(Transit Oriented Restoration) Mitigation Environmental Load (especially transport related) will be reduced? Concentration Maintenance Cost will be also down? Social Capitalization of Housings and Infrastructure near Station QOL(Quality Of Life) will be also improved? -> Achievement of sustainable city 4

6 How is the Spatial Form for Low Carbon City? Nagoya Paris Phoenix For designing Environmentally Sustainable City, necessary to estimate and forecast the amount of environmental load emission Necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of emission reduction measures To establish the methodology for quantifying environmental load in a city level is essential!!! 5

7 Objectives Establish a Model System to Analyze the Change in Environmental Load of a City by Urban and Transport Policy Location Policy (TOR, Compact, etc.) Transport Policy (Road, Railway, etc.) -> Effects to Transport Sector (Its environmental load is directly related with urban spatial structure.) Construction Type of Houses and Buildings (Material, Durability, Energy Technology, etc.) -> Effects to Domestic Sector (Its environmental load is not directly related with urban spatial structure except District Heating-Cooling Systems and Heat Island.) Long-term CO 2 Estimation System Applying LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT 6

8 Nagoya Sta. Here Building Transport Infra. Supply Infra. Primary, calculation was conducted by the unit of each ward. (total 16) Because of data constraint. Housing, Other building (excluding factory) Road, Railway (including Subway) Water supply, Sewage, Waste Others Park (as a Stock of CO 2 ) 7

9 Flowchart for Inventory Analysis Urban Structure Population Land-use Floor size of each lifecycle / type (Cohort model) Available for Land-use Transport Measure Transport Demand Forecast Model Traffic Volume of each Link Amount of Inputted Material & Energy Input per Floor sie Energy Consumption Factor Embodied Emission Factor Material Flow & Stock Energy Consumption Environmental Load 8

10 Class BAU Hous- ing Urban Struc- ture Alternative Scenarios Measure Condition Effects 1) BAU Present State will continue --- 2) Doubling Durability Double the durability 3) Efficient 30% off of energy use for air conditioning due to Energy Use 4) Concentrating Central Area 5) Concentrating near Railway- Interchange introducing the insulation to houses Concentrating the households of demolished houses to CBD area Concentrating the households of demolished houses to around the rail and subway interchanges Decrease in the amount of waste from house demolition Decrease in the newly constructed houses Decrease in the energy use in operation of the building Increase in the insulating materials Decrease in the total trip length of vehicles. Increase in the modal share of the subway Fixing CO 2 by woods. * It is assumed that each measure is executes from

11 Cohort-LCA Model Time-Serial Estimation of Life Stage of Facility and Bulding Amount of construction Life Stage of facility/b building Age Period Time r:survival rate Amount of Demolition 10 Total Amount of Maintenance

12 LC-CO CO 2 of Houses and Buildings Million t-co Efficient Energy Use BAU Doubling Durability +21% +18% -3% year Effect by efficient energy use is small because of high emission in construction stage. Longer durability is effective. 11

13 Impact Assessment -Identification of ELP(Environmental Load Point) as an integrated indicator- Environmental Load Waste Energy NO x SO x COD NO x SO x CO 2 T-P T-N Impact Category Waste Energy Air Pollution Water Pollution Acidification Global Warming Weighting by environmental standard or capacity (distance-to-target method) ELP Integrated Indicator 12

14 LC-ELP from Housing 0.25 ELP 0.25 BAU 0.25 Doubling Durability Demolition Operation (Indirect) Operation (Direct) Maintenance Construction The share of demolition stage (waste) is dominant. Doubling durability can decrease ELP in construction & demolition stage. 13

15 Material Flow Forecast 百万 t Mt -Input & Output of Concrete % _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 年 -23.9% 投入量 Input (BAU) _ トレンド投入量 Input (Doubling) _100 年住宅廃棄量 Output _ トレンド (BAU) 廃棄量 Output _100 (Doubling) 年住宅 Doubling durability decreases the amount of construction and demolition. -> Input & output of concrete also decrease

16 Scenarios of Population Distribution BAU(Present) 1,000person/ ha Center Railway- Interchange Concentrating Central Area 1,000person/ ha Center Rail- Interchange Total: 2.17mil. CBD: 73thou. Rail Interchanges: 302thou. Concentrating near Railway-interchange km Total: 2.17mil. CBD: 73thou. 215thou. 3 3 (in 2020) Total: 2.17mil. CBD+Rail Interchanges: 302thou. 453thou. ( 1.5) km 15

17 Material Stock Forecast -Stock of Concrete (2036~40) - BAU Concentrating Central Area 0 マテリアルストック _ コンクリート (t):2036_ ,000,000-1,500,000-2,000,000 1,000,000-1,500, ,000-1,000, , キロメーター km km キロメーター マテリアルストック _ コンクリート (t)_ 集中立地 :2036_ , , , , , , , ,000 Change in the housing distribution --> Change in the concrete stock distribution 16

18 BAU NO x Emission from Car Driving (2016~20) NOX 排出量 (t)_ トレンド :2036_ Center Concentration NOX 排出量 (t)_ 集中立地 :2016_ キロメーター km Total: 129,943 [t 5yr] 80,060 [t 5yr] Reduction : 38.4% キロメーター km

19 2.0 ELC-EFP ELP Impact Assessment (by LC-ELP) Present BAU Doubling (1991~95) (2016 Durability ~20) Efficient Energy Use Center Conc. Rail- Near- Interchange Station Conc. Rail Ope. Veh. Driving Water Waste 18 Rail Road Other Bldg Housing The policy concentrating housing location to center or near-station can reduced much ELC-EFP by mainly reduction in vehicle traffic.

20 Output Example of Inventory of City LC-CO 2 [t] LC-NO X [t] - Concentrating Central Area(2016~ ~20) - Facilities Construction Operation Maintenance Demolition Driving Housing 1,257,818 1,416, ,051 7,806 - Other bldg. 958,762 27,055,580-2,258 - Road 158,090-1,682,540-53,665,712 Rail 54, ,088 Water - 76, Waste ,092, Housing 5,938 3,373 1, Other bldg. 5,668 60, Road 886-9,713-80,060 Rail Water Waste

21 Findings from Case Study 1) LC-CO 2 emission increases 20% in BAU case, waste increases 3 times, and ELP increases 90%. (1991~2040) 2) Evaluated by ELP, waste from housing demolishment dominates a lot in the case of Nagoya. Longer Durability Measure can contribute to reduce ELP. 3) The amount of environmental loads from road transport and housing sector is dominant. 4) Population Concentration Measures have high potential to reduce environmental loads from transport sector. 20

22 Reform of the Model From WARD level to MESH level (500*500m) -> Detailed Spatial Policies can be analyzed. Not only Environmental Load but also QOL and Maintenance Cost -> Evaluation by the indicators of FACTOR is possible. 21

23 Triple Bottom Line of Sustainability SOCIAL (Safety&Sound, Equity) Balance is important! Environmentally Sustainable Transport ECONOMIC (GDP, Fiscal) ENVIRONMENT (eg. Pollution, CO 2 ) 22

24 Check of Triple Bottom Line of Nagoya City 年 / 人 QOL Infra. Maintenance Cost Embodied Environmental Load 円 / 人 kgco 2 / 人 ,500 5,000 10,000 メメメメ 0 2,500 5,000 10,000 メメメメ 23

25 Current Work Preparing full data of Nagoya City and Metropolitan Area In some small local cities, scenario analyses are already conducted Location policy in mega-city should be analyzed in regional scale. Improving transport model Applying various scenario with transport and urban spatial structure Tackle to find the solution of Low Carbon and High QOL Nagoya! 24

26 the mayor of the city of Nagoya How can you contribute? I am a local transport clinician understanding global environmental issues. NAGOYA TIMES 07/11/14

27 Think Globally, Act Locally 加藤博和 検索

28 Elements of QOL AC: Accessibility AM: Amenity SS:Safety & Security To work To school To hospital To shopping center Usability of the space Landscape with buildings Neighbor natural environment Local environmental load Earthquake Flood Crime Traffic accident

29 A Whole City Each facility or building Direct Energy Use and Environment al Load Facility.1 Facility.2 Facility.3 Facility.4 : Inventory Analysis Construction Operation/ Maintenance Demolishment Life Cycle C O D Materials Steel Concrete Insulation Materials Wood etc. I/O Analysis T C O D C O D C O D Indirect Energy Use and Environment al Load Time Necessary to get the information how much facilities and buildings are in each lifecycle stage. 28

30 BAU Road Transport Demand 交通量 ( トレンド ):2016_ ,000-1,090, , ,000 50, ,000 10,000-50, ,000 (2020) Center Concentration 交通量 ( 集中立地 ):2016_ ,000-1,010, , ,000 50, ,000 10,000-50, , km キロメーター キロメーター Total Trip Length: Total Trip Length: 359 million-veh-km 211 million-veh-km Reduction : 41.2% km 40