Japan s Recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake. Junichi Ihara Consul General of Japan

Transcription

1 Japan s Recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake Junichi Ihara Consul General of Japan

2 6,434 * Kobe (1995) 7.3 Northridge (1994) 60 * Haiti (2010) 222,570 * 1,000 times more powerful 9.0 Tohoku (2011) 23,930 * 9.1 Sumatra (2004) 227,898 * Circles represent the seismic energy to scale. Fatalities *

3 Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing) due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa, Miyagi prefecture) approximately 18 meters (about 60 feet) Destroyed and Flooded area 561 sq. km (about 219 square miles) about the same area as entire San Fernando Valley. Direct Material Damage 16 ~ 25 trillion ($ billion) estimated

4 Japanese High Speed Rail System Proved its Safety in the Earthquake All 27 trains operating in area slowed automatically and stopped safely as designed Not a single train derailment No casualties among passengers or crew 郡山駅新白川駅那須塩原駅宇都宮駅小山駅 大宮駅 盛岡駅盛岡駅新青森駅七戸十和田駅盛岡駅 八戸駅 いわて沼宮内駅 盛岡駅 新花巻駅北上駅水沢江刺駅 Shinaomori Hachinohe Morioka Ichinoseki Sendai No critical damage to rail infrastructure Operations restarted only 49 days after this earthquake of unprecedented scale Fukushima Nasushiobara Omiya Tokyo

5 Recent Evolution of Japan s Seismic Codes Miyagi quake (7.4 Magnitude) 28 Fatalities & 6,600 Failed Structures Seismic Standards Strengthened Kobe quake (7.3 Magnitude) 6,434 Fatalities & 104,906 Failed Structures But post-1981 construction performed well Government provides subsidies for retrofit to bring all buildings into compliance with 1981 Seismic Standards ( 1995 Act on Promotion of Seismic Retrofitting of Buildings )

6 Immediate Disaster Response (1) Self Defense Forces Volunteers About 100,000 members mobilized About 300,000 persons, as of May 16 th (total through the Disaster Volunteer Center) Operation Tomodachi Over 20,000 personnel About 20 ships About 160 aircraft Other Assistance from Overseas (U.S. Navy photo by: Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Dylan McCord/Released) 109 countries & regions; int l organizations Rescue and medical teams from 21 countries USD 186 million (excluding private donors)

7 Immediate Disaster Response (2) First Supplementary Budget 4 trillion yen (approved May 2) For infrastructure, business reconstruction loans, temporary housing, disaster waste treatment, etc. Temporary Housing Total units required: 72,000 Iwate 8,000; Fukushima 24,000; Miyagi 30,000 30,000 units built by late May Iwate 10,700; Fukushima, 9,300; Miyagi 10,100 Remaining units to be completed by August

8 Region s Industrial Profile and Output Fukushima: Info-communications equipment, electronic components, transport equipment Miyagi: Electronic components, steel and steel products Iwate: Transport equipment, electronic components Most affected prefectures output is 4% of Japan s GDP Iwate 0.9% of GDP Miyagi 1.6% of GDP Fukushima 1.5% of GDP Osaka 7.5% of GDP Tokyo 17.8% of GDP

9 65000 Electricity supply before the earthquake Summer peak demand Reduction of peak demand through energy saving measures (MW) As of May 13, TEPCO is expected to be able to supply 56,200MW of electricity this summer March 11 th This Summer

10 Seawater Pump 1) Off-site power from grid lost due to Earthquake 2) Auxiliary diesel generators inoperable due to Tsunami Reactor Building GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy Tsunami (estimated 14m) Turbine Building About 20M About 40M Breakwater 5.4 ~5.7m Seawater level Elevation: about 10m Diesel Generator 3) All motion operated pumps became inoperable

11 Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar 16-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 20-Mar 21-Mar 22-Mar 23-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar 30-Mar 31-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May Max Min (μsv/h) Mar 15-Mar 16-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 20-Mar 21-Mar 22-Mar 23-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar 30-Mar 31-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May (μsv/h) (μsv/h) Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar 16-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 20-Mar 21-Mar 22-Mar 23-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar 30-Mar 31-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May Max. Min. (μsv/h) MEXT, Fukushima Prefectural Government Iwaki 43km Fukushima 61km Sendai 90km μsv/hour μsv/hour μsv/hour Fukushima Dai-ichi Green box indicates normal range of radioactivity Atmospheric Readings within 100 km

12 Roadmap towards Restoration from the Accident (announced by TEPCO on Apr.17) Mar.11 Apr.17 Around 3 months Around 6~9 months Step 1 Step 2 Target [Reactors] [Spent Fuel Pools] [Contaminated Water] [Atmosphere/Soil] Radiation dose in steady decline Stable cooling - Resume heat exchange function - [Unit 1,3] flood up to top of active fuel - [Unit 2] Seal the damaged location Stable cooling - Enhance reliability of water injection - Restore coolant circulation system - [Unit 4] Install supporting structure Secure storage place Prevent contamination spread Improve working environment for employees at facility Install improved cooling system Improve earthquake countermeasures Controlling release of radioactive materials (significant reduction of dose level) Achieve cold shutdown More stable cooling - Keep sufficient level of water by remote-control - Resume heat exchange function Decrease contaminated water Install reactor building cover

13 Nuclear Power Plants in Japan ( 商業用 2010 年 3 月末現在 ) 東京電力 ( 株 ) 柏崎刈羽原子力発電所 北陸電力 ( 株 ) 志賀原子力発電所 1 2 東北電力 ( 株 ) 東通原子力発電所 1 2 東京電力 ( 株 ) 東通原子力発電所 1 2 北海道電力 ( 株 ) 泊発電所 電源開発 ( 株 ) 大間原子力発電所東北電力 ( 株 ) 女川原子力発電所 日本原子力発電 ( 株 ) 敦賀発電所 東北電力 ( 株 ) 浪江 小高原子力発電所 関西電力 ( 株 ) 美浜発電所 1 2 関西電力 ( 株 ) 大飯発電所 東京電力 ( 株 ) 福島第一原子力発電所 XXXX 東京電力 ( 株 ) 福島第二原子力発電所 関西電力 ( 株 ) 高浜発電所 日本原子力発電 ( 株 ) 東海第二発電所 中国電力 ( 株 ) 島根原子力発電所 中国電力 ( 株 ) 上関原子力発電所 1 2 九州電力 ( 株 ) 玄海原子力発電所 九州電力 ( 株 ) 川内原子力発電所 中部電力 ( 株 ) 浜岡原子力発電所 四国電力 ( 株 ) 伊方発電所 Output Scale <500 MW <1,000 MW Over 1,000 MW Operating units Output (MW) Under Construction Preparing for Construction Operating 54 48,847 Under Construction Preparing for Construction 2 2, ,552 Total 68 68,155

14 0.1 bill KWh 12,000 Japan s Changing Electricity Mix Delivered Electricity by Source 10,000 Zero Emission Power Sources 34% 8,000 6,000 Renewable 9% Nuclear 26% LNG 28% Renewable ~20% Nuclear ~50% Zero Emission Power Sources ~70% 4,000 2,000 0 Coal 25% Oil 13% LNG ~10% Coal ~10%

15 Public Opinion Poll What should be done about nuclear power generation in the future? Stopped 7% Increased 13% Stopped 11% Increased 5% Reduced 21% Maintained 53% Reduced 30% Maintained 51% 2007 April 18, 2011 Polls conducted by Asahi Shimbun newspaper

16 Public Debt as % of GDP Japan 197% Italy 127% UK 84% France 92% USA 92% Source: OECD

17 Japan s Household Financial Assets vs. Government Debt Household Financial Assets Government Debt 2009 (Source: Bank of Japan; Ministry of Finance, Japan)

18 (%) 15.0 Comparison with Lehman Shock Japan Real GDP change from previous quarter, annual rate March 11, 2011 Tohoku Earthquake September 15, 2008 Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy Actual Consensus private sector forecast Actual (before & after Lehman Shock) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 CY2010 CY2011 CY2008 CY Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Sources: National Accounts (Cabinet Office); Monthly Survey of Japanese Economic Forecasts (Economic Planning Association)

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