Earthquake Risk Assessment Using HAZUS. Muhammad Murad Billah Senior GIS Coordinator

Transcription

1 Earthquake Risk Assessment Using HAZUS Muhammad Murad Billah Senior GIS Coordinator

2 Can we find any limitation in RADIUS for risk assessment?

3 There are 2 major limitation -Building Type -Lifeline Inventory

4 Building Type in RADIUS

5 Does this explanation provide any idea about the building structure type?

6 Lifeline Inventory in RADIUS

7 Lifeline Inventory Damage Result in RADIUS Can we tell from this result which place is the worst in terms of damage?

8 What is HAZUS-MH? Facilitates a risk-based approach to disaster management Calculates scientifically-defensible damages, economic losses, and mitigation benefits Identifies and visually hazards and vulnerabilities displays

9 Loss estimation methodology 1. Define hazard

10 Loss estimation methodology 2. Define and overlay Inventory 1. Define hazard

11 Loss estimation methodology 3. Determine damage 2. Define and overlay Inventory 1. Define hazard

12 Loss estimation methodology 4. Estimate losses 3. Determine damage 2. Define and overlay Inventory 1. Define hazard

13 Interface 13

14 Inventory Data Common to all hazards How buildings are used and constructed Lifelines Replacement Costs Demographics Hazard-specific Specific building types Elevation Building configuration

15 Three basic steps are required to implement and run an analysis of losses for an international study region using HAZUS. 1) Create Study Region 2) Develop Hazard 3) Run Analysis

16 HAZUS-MH Provided Inventory Data General Building Stock Essential Facilities Hazardous Material Facilities High Potential Loss Facilities Transportation Lifeline Systems Utility Lifeline Systems Demographics

17 General Building Stock Includes residential, commercial, industrial, and public service building types 36 model buildings types and 28 occupancy classes

18 Building Occupancy Classes Building Occupancy = Building Use Occupancy class is important in determining economic loss, since building value is primarily a function of building use. 18

19 Building Structural Types Damage is predicted based on building structural type. The key factor in assessing overall building performance, loss of function and casualties. 19

20 Building Related Components Inventory of General Building Stock Building Count Square Footage Occupancy Mapping Dollar Exposure Building Damage Capacity Curve Structural Fragility Curve

21 Essential Facilities Include hospitals and other medical facilities, police and fire stations, emergency operation centers and schools

22 Transportation Lifeline Systems Include the Airways, Highways, Waterways, Bus Stations

23 Utility Lifeline Systems Include portable water, wastewater, oil, natural gas, electric power, and communication systems

24 Demographics Include total populations: age, gender, and race distribution; income distribution; number of owners and renters; building age; workforce location data.

25 Demography Related Components Population Demographics Casualties

26 Three basic steps are required to implement and run an analysis of losses for an international study region using HAZUS. 1) Create Study Region 2) Develop Hazard 3) Run Analysis

27 Building Related Components Induced Physical Damage Fire Following Earthquake Debris Generation

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29 Feature Classes and Tables bndrygbs.mdb

30 Earthquake Risk Assessment Methodology Seismic Hazard Map Ground Motion/Site effects Ground Failures Survey & Analysis Base Map Survey HAZUS Dataset General Building Stock Essential Facilities Transportation Systems Utility Systems Spatial Location Physical Characteristics Vulnerability Mapping Data Preparation Direct Physical Damage General Building Stock Essential Facilities Transportation Systems Utility Systems HAZUS Analysis Direct Losses Economic Losses Casualties Induced Physical Damage Fires, Debris, Inundation, Haz Materials Release Indirect Losses Indirect Economic Losses

31 Base Map Development Collection of Quick Bird Image Selection of TIC/GCP on the Image and Establishment of Bench Mark Development of GIS database as a base map by incorporating attribute data & field information Geo-referencing the Quickbird Image by RTK GPS with the surveyed GCPs Field verification and Attribute information collection Base line survey with total station On Screen Digitization (building, road, water body, open space, hill)

32 Cluster Development City (Administrative Boundary) Ward (Administrative Boundary) Cluster (Detail area delineation) Criteria: -Existing Ward Boundary - Road Network & Waterbody - Homogeneity in building use & structure type -Restricted area

33 Inventory of Building Stock General Building Stocks Base Map Essential Facilities (Emergency Operation, Medical Care, School & University) Base Map Tract or Cluster Building floor area GIS database Building count HAZUS occupancy HAZUS structural types Building age/ Quality Number of occupants Replacement cost Cost of contents Earthquake design code Survey Other sources

34 Field Survey Work - Building Level 0 Level I Level II Level III Structural type (36 types) Occupancy class (33 classes) Number of stories Building age (<10, 10-30, >30 yr) Number of occupants (day, night) Visible physical condition (poor, average, good) Vulnerability factors (soft story, heavy overhang etc.) Photos of building Level I + Plan sketch Dimensions of key building components (column size, wall layout etc.) Slab system (cast-in-place, pre-cast) Vulnerability details (short column, floor opening etc.)

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36 More structural types are added to HAZUS to better characterize some typical buildings in local context: Non-engineered RC Building Unreinforced Masonry Concrete Roof Unreinforced Masonry Flexible Roof Tin Shed & Bamboo 36

37 Building Structural Type Concrete Moment Frame with Unreinforced Masonry Walls Concrete Slab-Column Frame Lightly Reinforced Concrete Frame (Non-Engineered RC ) Unreinforced Masonry with Flexible Roof Unreinforced Masonry with Concrete Roof & Floor Tin Shed Bamboo

38 Building Vulnerability Factors % of vulnerabiliti es in each occupancy Large opening 1.5

39 Occupancy Structure Type Correlation Matrix for HAZUS input

40 Full replacement cost Replacement cost = Construction cost per floor area x floor area 30 Dollars per Sq-ft Bangladesh Local USx Apartment Hotel Small shop Office Hospital Government School Cost of contents Cost of contents = Replacement cost x CV CV : Content value from HAZUS Manual

41 Probability Fragility curves of Structural Type A Probability of Damage (damage state exceeding probability) Probability of extensive damage or collapse is 45 % Probability of collapse is 21 % Ground Shaking Intensity PGV (cm/sec) D C PGV (cm/s) B A As 41

42 Inventory of Lifeline Transportation System (Highway, Railway, Bus, Ferry) Utility System (Potable Water, Waste Water, Natural Gas, Electric Power, Communication) Base Map Spatial location Building foot-print GIS database Base Map Tract or Cluster HAZUS network type HAZUS facility type Physical characteristics Survey System performance Replacement cost Survey & other sources Restoration time

43 Lifeline Survey Highway Bridge Burigangga 2 Bridge

44 Lifeline Survey Potable Water System Deep Tube Well Overheight Tank Pump House

45 Replacement Value Benchmark Calculation HAZUS value >< local construction cost - Gas Pipeline - Potable Water Pipeline - Electric Distribution Circuit (pole) Percentage of HAZUS cost: - 17%: Local product & man-power related works - 20%: Cost mostly is from structure cost - 70%: Network lifeline (pipeline) - 100%: Cost mostly is from equipment cost System Component HAZUS BD Value HAZUS Value Label (thous. USD) (thous. USD) Percentage Highway Major Roads - 4 lanes (cost/km length) HRD1 2, , Transportation Urban Roads 2 lanes (cost/km length) HRD2 1, , Highway Bridges HWB See bridge table - - Railway Rail Track (cost/km length) RTR1 1, , Transportation Urban Station RST , Fuel Facility RFF , Maintenance Facility RMF , Dispatch Facility RDF , Bus Urban Station BPT , Transportation Fuel Facility BFF Maintenance Facility BMF , Dispatch Facility BDF Ferry Passenger Terminal FPT , Transportation Fuel Facility FFF Maintenance Facility FMF Dispatch Facility FDF Potable Water Brittle Pipe PWP Ductile Pipe PWP Small WTP PWT 30, , Well PWE Overhead Tank PSTAS Small Pumping Plant PPP Waste Water Brittle Pipe WWP Small WWTP WWT 60, , Small Lift Station WLS Natural Gas Arc Welded Steel Pipe (cost/break) NGP Electric Power Compressor Station (DRS) NGC 1, , Low Voltage Substation (distribution transformer ESS 10, , Distribution Circuit (electric pole) EDC Communication Central Office (Exchange) CCO 5, , Radio Station/Transmitter CBR 2, , TV Station/Transmitter CBT 2, ,

46 %functional Lifeline Restoration Time Benchmark Calculation HAZUS value >< (estimated) local restoration time - Gas Pipeline - Electric Distribution Circuit (pole) - Potable Water Well Local restoration time is 4-5 times longer than HAZUS one 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Restoration Curve for Potable Water Facility (Moderate Damage) Time (days) HAZUS Bangladesh

47 Field Survey Activity Georeference Checking Base Map Verification Engineers Training Interview Building Survey Lifeline Survey

48 Changing the Scenario

49 Building Density & Occupancy Type Building Occupancy Class Building Density (Number per km 2 ) Ward

50 Population Density (Number per km 2 ) Population Population Density (Number per km 2 ) Daytime Population Nighttime Population

51 Seismic Vulnerability of Concrete Buildings Vulnerability Level (Score) Vulnerability Factor

52 Lifeline Vulnerability Utility System: Potable Water System Transportation System: Highway Transportation System Essential Facility: Medical Care Facilities

53 Earthquake Risk Assessment Methodology Seismic Hazard Map Ground Motion/Site effects Ground Failures Survey & Analysis Base Map Survey HAZUS Dataset General Building Stock Essential Facilities Transportation Systems Utility Systems Spatial Location Physical Characteristics Vulnerability Mapping Data Preparation Direct Physical Damage General Building Stock Essential Facilities Transportation Systems Utility Systems HAZUS Analysis Direct Losses Economic Losses Casualties Induced Physical Damage Fires, Debris, Inundation, Haz Materials Release Indirect Losses Indirect Economic Losses

54 Earthquake Scenarios Seismic Hazard Information Parameters: Soil Class, Liquefaction Susceptibility, Landslide Susceptibility, and Water Depth input in cluster wise Earthquake Scenario - Scenario Case 1: Maximum Earthquake (High Severity) - Scenario Case 2: Moderate Earthquake (Low Severity) - Scenario Case 3: Mw=6 Underneath the City (Moderate Severity)

55 Damage to Concrete Buildings Scenar io 1 Number of Conc. Buildings at least moderate damage Damage Level Moderate Extensive Complete

56 Lifeline Damage Potable Water System Damage Transportation System - Highway Transportation System - Railway, Bus, and Ferry Transportation System Utility System - Potable Water System - Waste Water System - Natural Gas System - Electric Power and Communication System

57 Casualties Scenario Number of Injuries Levels Severity Level 1: Injuries will require medical attention but hospitalization is not needed Severity Level 2: Injuries will require hospitalization but are not considered liftthreatening Severity Level 3: Injuries will require hospitalization and can become lift-threatening if not promptly treated Severity Level 4: Victims are killed by the earthquake

58 Possible Fire Following Earthquake in Dhaka Possible Damage to Medical Facilities in Dhaka

59 Using the Results for Contingency Planning

60 Contingency Plan Development Framework Establish the Context in Relation to Potential Hazards Vulnerability Assessment & Loss Estimation Scenario Development Low Risk, Moderate Risk, High Risk Develop Template for Contingency Plans to Address Needs and Suite Risk Scenarios Plan Development at Various Levels Review Mandates for Various Levels & Sectors Extended Roles and Responsibilities of agencies Compare with existing and Gap analysis Training & Capacity Building Urban planning solutions Pre-positioning of facilities Perform Review & Revision After Major Events or as needed Develop a Reporting & M&E Mechanisms

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63 Location of Admin Offices Evacuation Space in Dhaka City

64 Location of High-rise Building in Dhaka City Highway Transportation System Damage

65 Location of Temporary Shelters Possible Evacuation Route in Dhaka City

66 Trapped Population in Dhaka City Location of Search & Rescue Camp

67 Location of Fuel Refilling Stations and Lifting Machines Locations of Fire Stations and their Potential Catchment Areas

68 Location of Major Hospitals in Dhaka City Functionality of Major Hospitals

69 Thank You for Your Patience! For further information write to: