Reliability of Grid-connected Photovoltaic Systems, the learning Curve in Yield and System Cost. Overview

Transcription

1 Reliability of Grid-connected Photovoltaic Systems, the learning Curve in Yield and System Cost 23 rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition Valencia, Spain September, 2 nd 8 Thomas Nordmann Luzi Clavadetscher TNC Consulting AG 873 Erlenbach Switzerland nordmann@tnc.ch Overview Can you name the five disciplines of the 8 Solar Olympics? What is the economical progress in PV from 1991 to 6? Where and how big is the tecnological evolution in PV? How can you achieve ø Performance Ratio (PR) of.8 for your PV system? Why is System performance over lifetime so important for our customers and the PV industry? Conclusions The Evolution of PV systems in seven theses Can you name the five disciplines of the Solar Olympics? Modern Pentathlon! Moderner Fünfkampf Shooting Fencing Swimming Riding Running No need for Swiss Timing! Yield & Performance & Capital Cost Yield [kwh/kwp a] Performance Ratio [-] Cost [!/kwp] Cost of PV Power [!/kwh], Capital-, Maintenance-Cost [!/kwp] [% of Invest/year] Yield [kwh/kwp a] Cost of PV Power [!/kwh] Performance Ratio [-] [-] 3 4

2 Focused Cost and Performance Trends PVPS Report T2-6:7 Published: December 7 Some free copies PVPS booth Hall 1 Stand D7/EPIA COST AND PERFORMANCE TRENDS IN GRID-CONNECTED PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS AND CASE STUDIES Two Data Sources: 27 PV Systems in Task 2 Economic Survey 1 44 Operational Years in Performance DB Nominal module efficiency System cost from Task 2/6 Economic Survey 27 Yield data Performance data data Array data > Monitored data, total 144 operational years from Task 2 Performance Database Number of PV Systems Report IEA-PVPS T2-6:7 6 Task 2 Performance Database Information on PV plants in 21 countries worldwide with 13. MW total power and over 1 6 operational years From where & how large are the Systems? The Evolution of the Performance Ratio Plants 3 Online: DEU JPN CHE GBR USA ITA AUT NLD SWE ISR CAN ESP FRA MEX POL BEL PRT 1 < !1 Nominal Power [kw] 7 8

3 9 The Evolution of the nominal N = Modern Pentathlon discipline # 1.18 Nominal module efficiency [--] Crystalline cells Amorphous cells 1991 ø!stc= 11.%! ø!stc = 13%, best case 14% 9 1 The Evolution of the nominal N = Nominal module efficiency [--] Crystaline Si Crystalline cells.24 Amorphous cells ø!stc= 11.%! ø!stc = 13%, best case 14%.14 Nominal module efficiency [--].16 Modern Pentathlon discipline # 2 = " 11 12

4 The Evolution of the N = Modern Pentathlon discipline # 3 Operational inverter efficiency [--] ø! INV =.89! ø! INV =.94, Best Case =.94 = " The Evolution of the N = per system, O [--] , O orange = of each system over year of construction blue = average of all systems over year of construction O avr. Average 1991 O =.3! O =.1, best case.! , average, O [--] Modern Pentathlon discipline = " Performance Ratio 1 16

5 The Evolution of the Performance Ratio N = Modern Pentathlon discipline 4 Performance ratio, PR [--] ø PR =.64! ø PR =.74, best case.84 Yield [kwh/kwp a] Performance Ratio The Evolution of the Final Yield N = Annual Yield to Northern of Latitude [ N] < !16 < !16 Annual Yield, Yf [kwh / kw] Annual Yield, Yf [kwh / kw] non-facade (orange) and facade (green) PV systems IEC 2ax Israel Grid-connected Two-axis tracking 3.98 kwp 32.3 m" Yf = 2 1 kwh/kwp a Annual yield, Yf [kwh / kw] 18 Yf, others Yf, facade Latitude [ N] Jungfraujoch Switzerland Altitude 3,44 m 1.1 kwp PR ø 8.2 Yf = 1 4 kwh/kwp a Winter energy fraction 48.% non-facade (orange) and facade (green) PV systems 19

6 How can you achieve ø Performance Ratio (PR) of.8 for your PV system? 21 Dominating Performance Constraints Poor reliability of inverters Long repair times 22 Realistic, truthful module ratings No shading problems Better inverter availability and efficiencies Higher system availabilities, short repair times Early fault detection and monitoring of the systems will increase the overall performance Shading problems Fotos PVPS Task 2, TNC AG and Solar Engineering Annual yield three main groups 23 For typical PV Systems 461 grid-connected PV systems built from 17 countries - Mainly domestic roof-top systems - smaller than 1 kwp Annual yield three main groups: - Israel and southern Japan Yf = 1`4 kwh/kwp - Florida, USA, Yf =1` kwh/kwp - Central Europe Yf = 9 kwh/kwp Modern Pentathlon discipline, Capital-, Maintenance-Cost [!/kwp] [% of Invest/year] Yield Cost of PV Power [!/kwh] Performance Ratio 23 24

7 2 Task 2 Economic Survey From where & how large are the systems? The Evolution of the System cost N = USA CHE JPN ITA AUT SWE DEU GBR MEX ESP BEL 1 < !49 Nominal power, P [kw] Total plant cost [USD / W], all Systems 1992 ø 16 US$/W! 6 ø 8 US$/W -%, Best case 6 US$ - 63%! Cost segments: Balance of system BOS, & Modul TNC PV systems learning-curve: Cost [USD / W], 18 BOS s % 8% 6% 4% % % 1992 (6) 1997 (14) (14) 4 (11) USA (267) 1992 (6) 1997 (14) (14) 4 (11) USA (267) Cost Total CHF/Wp 17kW 13kW Mark I Mark II [CHF/Wp] [CHF/Wp] BoS#[CHF/Wp] 14kW Mark III 199 7kW 126kW Freilager Sonnenhof % 21kW kw SwissMill III AMAG

8 A typical grid connected PV system ø 1991 and ø and best case 29 3 Conclusions The Evolution of PV systems in 7 theses Typical system tech. I econom. I 1991 best case Nominal module efficiency [!A] % Operational inverter efficiency [!I] % (ø/a) Performance ratio (ø PR/a) Overall PV plant efficiency [!tot] % Improvement % unit Cost (in US$ adjusted) US$/W Monday The increase of the ø nominal module efficiency in the survey is surprisingly low 11.% - 13% (without thin-film modules!) Long incubation time for new technology Tuesday The ø plant annual performance PR increases.64 to.74. Wednesday The ø operational inverter efficiency is improved from 89% to 94%. Thursday The reporting on outages and the type of failure is minimal. The PV industry should learn from the automobile industry. Zero Recall can not be achieved! 29 3 Conclusions The Evolution of PV systems in 7 theses Friday Significant finding is a clear trend towards lower system cost over time from 1992 to 6 - % (best case -63%)! Saturday Performance, reliability and turnkey and operational cost data of PV systems are most important for a broad PV implementation and dissemination strategy in future. Sunday Our products have a reliable and sustainable reputation. We have to ensure the quality of the components and the systems even in a fast growing PV environment! Quality and education is the key element for market developments! 31 Austria Canada EU-JRC EPIA France, Germany Italy Japan Poland Sweden Switzerland United- Kingdom USA IEA PVPS TASK 2 A Network of 17 experts from 13 countries:

9 IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME The Task 13 Definition Workshop Invitation to get involved in international activities and experience Stakeholders: PV industry, system owners and operators, utilities When? 2 26 September 8 Where? PTJ, Berlin, Germany Get the Flyer for the the PVPS booth Hall 1 Stand D7/EPIA or contact: ch.huennekes@fz-juelich.de 33 your PDF: I am not a PowerPoint presentation! thank your for your interest Nordmann Dortmund Lärmschutz 6 34