Global trends and opportunities for next generation MAC Refrigerants. Álvaro de Oña 24th September 2008, Shanghai

Transcription

1 Global trends and opportunities for next generation MAC Refrigerants Álvaro de Oña 24th September 2008, Shanghai

2 Outline Intro: who is Shecco MAC Market trends and description Technology choice: recent timeline Current status: CO2 or 1234yf? What next? 2

3 Intro: Who is Shecco Integrated Marketing & Communication consultancy in the field of climate friendly technologies. Main Services: Market research B2B Internet platforms 3

4 Intro: Shecco website 28/11/2008 Shecco Template Presentation 4

5 R744.com: industry portal on CO 2 28/11/2008 Shecco Template Presentation 6

6 R744.cn: In Chinese 28/11/2008 Shecco Template Presentation 7

7 New Portal: Hydrocarbons21.com 28/11/2008 Shecco Template Presentation 8

8 MAC Market- Trends Currently, one technology greatly dominating the market (R134a) Mature market: well established structure of suppliers Margins squeezing Faced with upcoming technology changes Current estimate is that 80% of vehicles incorporate MAC Market set to grow, as trend to incorporate MAC in vehicles rises but depending on health of manufacturers 9

9 MAC Market- overview source: Shecco 10

10 MAC Components Well established infrastructure of suppliers Compressor technology, key to determine MAC Performance AND price Cost of raw materials to increase in the longterm (especially copper and aluminium) = Higher prices for Heat Exchangers, Evaporator and Condenser 11

11 Compressor Market source: Shecco 12

12 MAC Market Compressor is most attractive market, representing roughly 1/2 of the total cost of systems Refrigerant market for MAC also significant, estimated value of over 2 billion / year although manpower on production is low Trend towards hybrids will increase opportunities for suppliers to offer new technology 13

13 Upcoming technology changes Main Driver: MAC Directive in EU Adopted in 2006, bans R134a from 2011 Triggered R&D efforts into alternatives Effort to increase efficiency, as upcoming legislation will also demand minimum standards Dual objective: reduce direct and indirect MAC emissions 14

14 Choice of next refrigerant Technology options: new synthetic refrigerant or a natural one (CO 2 ) Since 2006, several synthetic refrigerants proposed: DP1 (DuPont), Fluid H (Honeywell), AC1 (Ineos), etc All rejected by car manufacturers due to toxicity, ozone depletion or other concerns Now, discussion narrowed down to 1234yf and CO 2 15

15 Timeline CO 2 September 2007: German carmakers (under association VDA) announce choice of CO 2 for their vehicles, based on years of R&D. September- October 2007: Several suppliers announce readiness for CO 2 (i.e. Visteon, Behr, Modine, ixetic), with better efficiency than R134a. August 2008: Behr publishes extensive tests of 100+ fleet cars with CO 2 = safe, reliable, more efficient October 2008: VDA confirms again choice of CO 2, and stop to 1234yf. Cost remains as hurdle for first systems: expected to decrease with mass production 16

16 Timeline- synthetic refrigerants From 2006: several refrigerants announced as global solution, later discarded September 2007: 1234yf announced Testing ongoing, target is to minimise cost of transition from 134a. But major concerns with flammability, decomposition products, stability and type of lubricant remain. Long-term toxicity also not clear. Price of refrigerant itself to increase sharply. Main issue: Safety 17

17 Reporting by German TV Independent investigation of 1234yf broadcasted live on programme Frontal 21 on 28 October, from ZDF channel, second biggest public TV in Germany Conclusion: 1234yf is flammable, and decomposes into toxic gases 18

18 Excerpt of German TV Report* *Permission to broadcast granted by ZDF 19

19 What is next? Position by German OEMs is clear on CO 2. Toyota also announced to move away from 1234yf (31 st October 2008, on Other manufacturers expected to announce choice soon = deadline in EU approaching Meanwhile, R134a still in use in other world regions. Different technologies will be in operation simultaneously. Small fraction of Australian market also uses Hydrocarbons, back to agenda if OEMs go for flammable refrigerants? 20

20 Opportunities So far, only real sustainable solution for long-term is CO 2 Changing market: opportunities to newcomers, as CO 2 will require new components, CO 2 Refrigerant is cheap and widely available globally Option to integrate efficient Heat Pump function for heating, only with CO 2. CO 2 growing solid in stationary markets: EcoCute Heat Pumps (Japan), commercial refrigeration, vending machines, etc. In China & India: access to attractive markets (EU first), option to receive financing (i.e. CDM credits) 21

21 Thank you! Álvaro de Oña