Models to inform intervention choices on coral reefs. Ken Anthony - AIMS

Transcription

1 Models to inform intervention choices on coral reefs Ken Anthony - AIMS

2 NAS Coral Workshop, 28 August 28 A framework for intervention Function Endemic Cost Interventions work p $$ Novel, early interventions Uncertainty Interventions fail, or unintended consequences -p $$ Intervene early? Things turn out OK (e.g., RCP 2.6) p 2 Conventional management Uncertainty Novel, late interventions Intervene late? Interventions work, to some extent Uncertainty Interventions fail p 3 $ $ Michael C. Runge, mrunge@usgs.gov Conventional management

3 Some new intervention options. Enhancing climate resilience 2. Cooling 3. Shading 4. Rubble stabilisation 5. Emerging CoTS interventions Conventional Pollution management Manual CoTS control No-take areas Ken Anthony AIMS

4 Assisted gene flow CoTS control using emerging tech Conv CoTS control Pollution management Assisted evolution Assisted migration Gene editing Cloud brightening Benefits and risks for ecological, economic social and cultural values Surface films No-take areas (zoning) Anchor management Macroalgal removal Rubble stabilisation

5 Positive Negative Cloud Brightening Benefits? Risks? Intervene early, late or never? Drivers Pressures State of Values Native, valued Assisted migration RCP 2.6 vs 8.5 Warming Other, native New (GE) Gene editing

6 Cloud brightening (cooling vs mortality under system failure) Efficacy Risk Years Assisted migration (thermal resistance vs pathogen spread) Efficacy Risk Gene editing (thermal resistance vs invasiveness) Efficacy Risk

7 Cloud brightening (cooling vs mortality under system failure) Efficacy Risk Years Assisted migration (thermal resistance vs pathogen spread) Efficacy Risk Gene editing (thermal resistance vs invasiveness) Efficacy Risk

8 Cloud brightening (cooling vs mortality under system failure) Efficacy Risk Years Assisted migration (thermal resistance vs pathogen spread) Efficacy Risk Gene editing (thermal resistance vs invasiveness) Efficacy Risk

9 RCP 8.5 Native New Cover No new interventions Other Algae Diversity.4 3 DHW mean warming, DHW 5 Coral cover.2.5. Coral cover Species Evenness Time, years Time, years Time, years

10 RCP 8.5 Native New Cover Cloud brightening early Other Algae Diversity 8 6 DHW mean warming, DHW 8 6 Coral cover.2 Coral cover.4.4 Species Evenness Time, years Time, years Time, years

11 RCP 8.5 Native New Cover Other Algae Diversity Assisted migration in year DHW mean warming, DHW 5 Coral cover.2.5 Coral cover.4.4 Species Evenness Time, years Time, years Time, years

12 RCP 8.5 Native New Cover Other Algae Diversity Cloud brightening in year 5, assisted migration and gene editing in year DHW mean warming, DHW 5 Coral cover.3.2 Coral cover Species Evenness Time, years Time, years Time, years

13 Mortality from bleaching (prop) ENHANCED THERMAL TOLERANCE COOLING & SHADING COOLING & SHADING 26/7.5 C 2 C 3 C Predicted DHW of warming events under different futures Anthony et al. in prep. Adapted from Hughes et al 28 and Lough et al. 28

14 Positive Negative Cloud Brightening Benefits? Risks? Intervene early, late or never? Drivers Pressures State of Values Native, valued Assisted migration RCP 2.6 vs 8.5 Warming Other, native New (GE) Gene editing

15 Summary results for years 26-75

16 Setting objectives..

17 Betting on a warm future..

18 Sensitivity to start state..

19 Cloud brightening (cooling vs mortality under system failure) Efficacy Risk Years Assisted migration (thermal resistance vs pathogen spread) Efficacy Risk Gene editing (thermal resistance vs invasiveness) Efficacy Risk

20 and climate future..

21 Removing a high-risk option..

22 Removing a high-risk option..

23 Objective: High coral cover and diversity RCP Start State Cloud Brightening Assisted migration Gene Editing 2.6 Low?? Never Late 2.6 High Early/Late Late/Never Late 8.5 Low Late Early Late/Never 8.5 High Early Early/Late Late

24 Drivers Coastal development Atmospheric carbon Urban development Agriculture Other livelihoods Pos Pressures Climate Change Storms Pollutant run-off Habitat damage Fishing Neg Ocean warming Ocean acidification Turbidity & Sedimentation Nutrients Management and policy responses State of Values Impacts on goods and services and other social and economic benefits