Jerrit Askvig, Leah Bode, Nathan Cushing, Colin Mullery December 1, 2010

Transcription

1 Jerrit Askvig, Leah Bode, Nathan Cushing, Colin Mullery December 1, 2010

2 Agenda Context Stakeholder Analysis Problem Statement Scope Design Alternatives Method Analysis/Simulation Project Plan/Budget Risk Mitigation 2

3 Chesapeake Bay / West and Rhode Rivers CB is the largest estuary in the U.S containing 57 billion cubic meters of water [1] CB watershed covers 165k square km [1] W&RR are sub estuaries of the CB contain 50 million cubic meters of water W&RR watershed covers 78 square kilometers [2] [1] Source: Chesapeake Bay Program [2] Source: West/Rhode Riverkeeper 3

4 Current Sub-estuary Health Currently the water quality in the sub-estuary is poor. Many of the samples taken to measure water quality do not meet the threshold levels. Water Quality Indicator Threshold West Rhode West Rhode Water C larity 1 m 11% 12% 4% 5% Dissolved Oxygen 5 mg/l 49% 75% 58% 68% Nutrients (N / P) 0.65 mg/l mg/l 10% 13% 18% 21% Algae 6.2 ug/l 0% 5% 8% 0% Underwater Grasses 298 Acres 0% 0% 0% 0% Data Source: West/Rhode River Report Card 2009, 2010 Percent of Samples Meeting Threshold

5 Water Clarity Data Secchi depth is the measure of how far into the water natural light can penetrate Threshold Level Trendline Average river depth is less than 2 meters [1] Less than 5% of test samples in the West & Rhode Rivers met the threshold of 1 meter in 2010 (34 of 717) [1] Threshold Level Trendline Secchi Disk [1] Source: West/Rhode Riverkeeper Chart Data Sources: Maryland Department of Natural Resources 5

6 Problem Chain Excess Nutrients and Sediment Algae Blooms Turbidity Increases Underwater Grasses Cannot Grow Dissolved Oxygen Decreases Aquatic Ecosystem Suffers 6

7 Dissolved Oxygen Dissolved oxygen is important for the survival and reproduction of aquatic creatures Areas without sufficient dissolved oxygen are called dead zones and result in decreased habitats Only 60% of water tested in the West & Rhode Rivers met the threshold of 5 mg/l in 2010 (697 of 1157 samples) Source: 2010 West & Rhode River Report Card 7

8 Aquatic Ecosystem Data Source: West/Rhode Riverkeeper Report Card 2009,

9 Causes of Poor Water Quality Excess Nutrients 8.3 million kg of phosphorous and 127 million kg of nitrogen flowed into the bay in 2007 In 2010, only 8% of testing sites in West & Rhode Rivers passed thresholds Excess Sediment In 2007, 4.3 million metric tons of sediment flowed into the Chesapeake Bay Data Source: Chesapeake Bay Program 9

10 Current Restoration 1. The West & Rhode Riverkeeper monitors construction sites to reduce sediment flowing into the estuary 2. The West & Rhode Riverkeeper offers a sewage pump-out service for boaters 3. Septic system upgrades and Sustainable lawn care 4. Living shoreline restoration at Camp Letts and Shady Side Source: West/Rhode River Report Card Oyster Harvesting Program, Project Oyster West River (POWeR) grew 25,000 in 2010 Restoration Sources: West/Rhode Riverkeeper 10

11 Agenda Context Stakeholder Analysis Problem Statement Scope Design Alternatives Method Analysis/Simulation Project Plan/Budget Risk Mitigation 11

12 Stakeholder Analysis 12

13 Water Quality Water Quality Undesirable Current Situation Unbalanced Currently pollution is causing a degrading environment for wildlife and plants. This is unacceptable Businesses Community Rec FarmsFishermen Forcing Balance Regulations Increasing Regulations Balanced by reducing pollution in-flow Government can force a balance by imposing regulations on stakeholders. This may not work because much of the pollution comes from the Susquehanna River. 13

14 Susquehanna Pollution Source: Eyes on the Bay, March

15 Susquehanna Pollution Almost 50% of the Chesapeake Bay s fresh water comes from the Susquehanna Susquehanna s contribution to the Bay 21 % of the Bay s phosphorus 40 % of the Bay s nitrogen Data Sources: Chesapeake Bay Program 15

16 Impact on Stakeholders In reference to the EPA s pollution diet plan:.but EPA's draft pollution diet, released Sept. 24, has generated opposition from across the six-state region. Farmers, developers and local and state officials - particularly in New York and Virginia - have questioned the scientific basis and EPA's legal authority to order more pollution reductions. Critics also have warned that the reductions in nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment that EPA is proposing to require would be unachievable, costly and potentially damaging to local economies. Source: The Baltimore Sun, November 29th

17 Water Quality Water Quality Businesses Rec Farms Fishermen Community Asking For Balance Regulations Alternatives Requiring Stakeholder Change Balanced by reducing pollution in-flow This is the curse of commons problem. Why should a farmer stop using fertilizer when his neighbor isn t? Community Businesses Rec Farms Fishermen Win/Win These design alternatives will shift the pollution balance while having minimal impact on stakeholders. This is a win/win for everybody Regulations Design Alternatives The utility of the alternative is how far that alternative shifts the balance. Balanced by removing pollution 17

18 Agenda Context Stakeholder Analysis Problem Statement Scope Design Alternatives Method Analysis/Simulation Project Plan/Budget Risk Mitigation 18

19 Need / Problem Statement A system is needed to decrease the turbidity in the West and Rhode Rivers so these sub-estuaries will become a habitable environment for fish, crabs, oysters, and other species. Design and evaluate alternatives that will increase the Secchi depth to at least 1.0 meter. 19

20 Scope West and Rhode Rivers and their surrounding watershed and community Local Government regulations This project will consider nutrient and sediment levels in the West and Rhode Rivers, but will not consider bacteria contamination 20

21 Agenda Context Stakeholder Analysis Problem Statement Scope Design Alternatives Method Analysis/Simulation Project Plan/Budget Risk Mitigation 21

22 Design Alternatives Configurations of: Oysters Amount Placement Mussels Amount Placement Living Shorelines Placement Length Oyster or Mussel bed Living Shoreline Restoration 22

23 Eastern Oysters Native to the Chesapeake Bay Can filter up to 190 liters of water per day Removes algae, nutrients, and sediment from the water Provide habitat for other aquatic wildlife Oyster Bed 23

24 Atlantic Ribbed Mussels Native to the Chesapeake Bay Can filter up to 163 liters of water per day Removes algae, nutrients, and sediment from the water Unpleasant taste makes Mussels less likely to be poached Mussel Bed 24

25 Living Shoreline Restoration Protects from tidal erosion and removes nitrogen through denitrification Grounds suspended sediment and provides habitat for wildlife Living Shoreline Restoration 25

26 Removes Prevents House of Quality Sediment Nitrogen Phosphorous Oysters Mussels Living Shoreline X Sediment X X X Algae X X Nitrogen X X X Phosphorous X X X 26

27 Agenda Context Stakeholder Analysis Problem Statement Scope Design Alternatives Method Analysis/Simulation Project Plan/Budget Risk Mitigation 27

28 Method Analysis and Simulation Process Oysters SLR Mussels Optimization Process 2-D Tidal Prism Model VIMS Model Utility Function Cost / Benefit Analysis VIMS: Virginia Institute of Marine Science 28

29 Model State Variables Inputs/Outputs State Variables Nitrogen (N) Design Alternatives Phosphorous (P) Sediment (S) Cell and Tide Volume (V) Salinity (S) Cell Attributes Tidal Flow N, P, S Loads 2-D Tidal Prism Model Cell Attributes N, P, S Removed Water Temperature (WT) Dissolved Oxygen (DO) 29

30 How the Model Works Sub-estuary is divided into cells The continuous tide flow process is model in discrete time steps (1.5 hours) State variables are recalculated after every time step At the end of the tide cycle the state variable values are stored and used for the next iteration 30

31 Model Equations V n = Volume of Cell n T n = Tide volume of Cell n N n = Nitrogen concentration of Cell n F = River volume B n = Bay Concentration of Nitrogen R n = River Concentration of Nitrogen Bay to Cell 1: N 1 = (N 1 V 1 + B n T 1 ) / (V 1 +T 1 ) Cell 1 to Cell 2: N 2 = (N 2 V 2 + N 1 T 2 ) / (V 2 +T 2 ) N 1 = (N 1 (V 1 + T 1 ) + B n T 1 - N 1 T 2 ) / (V 1 +T 1 ) Cell 2 to Cell 3: N 3 = (N 3 V 3 + N 2 T 3 ) / (V 3 +T 3 ) N 2 = (N 2 (V 2 + T 2 ) + N 1 T 3 - N 2 T 3 ) / (V 2 +T 2 ) N 1 = (N 1 (V 1 + T 1 ) + B n T 3 - N 1 T 3 ) / (V 1 +T 1 ) Cell 3 to Cell 4: N 4 = (N 4 V 4 + N 3 T 4 ) / (V 4 +T 4 ) N 3 = (N 3 (V 3 + T 3 ) + N 3 T 4 - N 3 T 4 ) / (V 3 +T 3 ) N 2 = (N 2 (V 2 + T 2 ) + N 1 T 3 - N 2 T 4 ) / (V 2 +T 2 ) N 1 = (N 1 (V 1 + T 1 ) + B n T 3 - N 1 T 4 ) / (V 1 +T 1 ) 31

32 Model Validation Baseline Simulations Simulations using previous data Nutrient data Secchi depth Salinity 32

33 Baseline Simulations Initial cell concentrations: 0.95 mg/l N River Input 0.0 mg/l N Bay Input 0.85 mg/l N 33

34 Baseline Simulations 34

35 Baseline Simulations 35

36 Baseline Simulations 36

37 Design of Experiment 37

38 Optimization Process Omit all configurations that contain any cells that are unsustainable Model remaining configurations Determine each configuration s utility using a modified utility function The utility will determine which configurations will be modeled in the VIMS model Design Alternative 1: Design Alternative 2: TSS Removal 100 g/day 75 g/day Sustainability

39 Utility Function Utility value from tidal prism model is used to narrow down configuration options Utility Input data from VIMS model to find optimal configuration Top level weights will be determined by sponsors using swing weights Maximize Visibility F(V) Maximize Sustainabilit y F(S) Maximize Water Quality F(Q) Utility = F(V)*Wv + F(S)*Ws + F(Q)*Wq 39

40 Visibility Subjective measure of stakeholder approval for design alternative Example: Living Shoreline Restoration: 1.0 Oysters: 0.75 Mussels:

41 Sustainability Maximize Sustainability F(S) Growth F(G) Poaching F(PO) Predators F(PR) Disease F(D) Reproductio n F(R) Ph level Salinity Temp DO 0.5 Oysters 1 - Mussels Salinity Salinity Temp Ph level Salinity Temp DO F(S) = F(G)*Wg + F(PO)*Wpo+ F(PR)*Wpr+ F(D)*Wd + F(R)*Wr Weights will be determined by Dr. Mark Brush, VIMS 41

42 Water Quality Maximize Water Quality F(Q) Decrease Nutrients F(N) Decrease Sediment F(S) Increase Dissolved Oxygen F(DO) % removed % removed % increase Prism Model: F(Q) = F(N)*Wn + F(S)*Ws VIMS Model: F(Q) = F(N)*Wn + F(S)*Ws + F(DO)*Wdo Weights will be determined by Dr. Mark Brush, VIMS 42

43 Cost / Benefit Analysis Utility vs. Cost (Notional Data) Oysters Mussels Living Shoreline k 500 k 750 k 1 M 1.25 M 1.5 M 1.75 M 2 M 2.5 M 2.75 M $ 43

44 Agenda Context Stakeholder Analysis Problem Statement Scope Design Alternatives Method Analysis/Simulation Project Plan/Budget Risk Mitigation 44

45 Budget Estimated Budget: $98,910 Planned Value: $34,650 Earned Value: $34,364 Actual Cost: $33,390 CPI: 1.03 SPI:

46 Project Plan September October November December January February March April May Scope Management Requirements Value Hierarchy Design Alternatives Modeling Research #1 #2 Final Utility Weights Model V/V Model Building Cost Research Abstract Modeling VIMS Analysis Final Proposal 5-yr plans Poster Paper Competition Prep 46

47 Agenda Context Stakeholder Analysis Problem Statement Scope Design Alternatives Method Analysis/Simulation Project Plan/Budget Risk Mitigation 47

48 Project Risk Mitigation Risk: VIMS Model 2D Tidal Modeling Mitigation Strategy: Move earlier in schedule Trial runs early Contingency plan Start predecessor tasks (utility weights,model V/V, cost analysis) earlier 48

49 References Cerco, Carl F and Marc R. Noel. "Evaluating Ecosystsem Effects of Oyster Restoration in Chesapeake Bay." September Maryland Department of Natural Resources. 3 October 2010 < /Cerco_Noel_final.pdf>. Chesapeake Bay Foundation. "Air Pollution." October 2010 < Page.aspx?pid=519>. Chesapeake Bay News. "2010 Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab Advisory Report." 2 July October 2010 < chesapeake-bay-blue-crab-advisory-report/>. Chesapeake Bay Program. "Air Pollution." 20 August October 2010 < Bay History. 23 December October 2010 < bay.net/bayhistory.aspx?menuitem=14591>.. Dissolved Oxygen. 30 July October 2010 < bay.net/dissolvedoxygen.aspx?menuitem=14654>.. Eastern Oyster. 2 November October 2010 < bay.net/oysters.aspx?menuitem=19368>.. "MSX/Dermo." 2 November October 2010 < bay.net/oysterdiseases.aspx?menuitem=19507>.. Nutrients. 19 August October 2010 < nutrients.aspx?menuitem=14690>.. "Oyster Harvest." 2 November October 2010 < bay.net/oysterharvest.aspx?menuitem=14701>.. "Sources of Nitrogen Loads into the Bay." 1 September October 2010 < "Sources of Phosphorus Loads to the Bay." 1 September October >.. "Stormwater." 10 February October 2010 < bay.net/stormwater.aspx?menuitem=19515>.. "Wastewater Treatment." 19 May October 2010 < chesapeakebay.net/wastewatertreatment.aspx?menuitem=14747>. Environmental Defense Fund. "Press Release: Environmental Groups Point the Way to Mercury Pollution Reductions." 18 December October 2010 < National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA Fisheries Office of Protected Resources Glossary. 3 October 2010 < htm#a>. 49

50 References. "Status of the Eastern Oyster (Crassostrea Virginica)." 5 March October 2010 < easternoyster.pdf>. Project Oyster West River. "Project Oyster West River Final Report." April October 2010 < Smithsonian Marine Station at Fort Pierce. Geukensia Demissa. 1 October October 2010 < U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. "Clean Air Act." 22 September October 2010 < Virginia Institute of Marine Science. About October 2010 < edu/about/index.php>.. About BasinSim October October 2010 < bio/models/bsabout.html>. Waterkeeper Alliance. "Our Mission." 3 October 2010 < d/sp/i/187/pid/187>. West Rhode Riverkeeper. "West & Rhode River Report Card." April October 2010 < "West and Rhode River Report Card." April October 2010 < westrhoderiverkeeper.org/images/stories/pdf/reportcard2010_online.pdf>. 50

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52 Backup Slides 52

53 Determine which configurations will be modeled in the VIMS model Accurately predict state variables over time Predict the effects of filter feeders on the concentration of nutrients and sediments Quickly optimize the placement and amount of filter feeders Determine the residence time for the sub-estuary A user-friendly tool for sponsor use 53

54 Nutrient, sediment, and salinity concentrations are uniform throughout each cell Wind shear is negligible Rain water volume is negligible Tide flow into each cell occurs instantaneously Tide completely flows into cell A before flowing into cell B 54