Fort Collins Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory & Forecast. Citizen Advisory Committee July 23, 2014 Bonnie Pierce

Transcription

1 Fort Collins Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory & Forecast Citizen Advisory Committee July 23, 2014 Bonnie Pierce

2 Inventory Emissions What is a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory? An analysis that details the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with relevant operations What is a GHG Emissions Protocol? A set of standards that dictate the types, quality, and sources of data needed to conduct a GHG emissions inventory

3 Types of Inventories Production/activity based: includes GHG emissions associated with sources and activities taking place within a geographic boundary over which an entity has jurisdiction Consumption based: estimates life cycle emissions associated with residents consumption of goods & services Life Cycle: accounting on the full life cycle emissions associated with materials extraction, manufacturing or processing, transportation, use, and end of life management of a good or service

4 2012 ICLEI Community Protocol Geographic boundaries: Focus on emissions occurring within jurisdictional boundary Certain trans boundary emission sources associated with inboundary community activities Emphasis is on local control Consistent accounting for comparability

5 What does Fort Collins include? Solid Waste Energy Use Transportation Water & Wastewater Includes Residential, Commercial, & Industrial Sectors

6 Why include these emissions? Requirements for compliance with the protocol Data readily available, accurate, and complete City has local control through plans, policies, & programs, etc. Provides baseline for monitoring and evaluating progress

7 What s currently not included? Difficult to access data/de minimis emissions HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 emissions Industrial process emissions Composting by residents & businesses Railroad system Fertilizer application Livestock Propane

8 Methods Electricity Includes Fort Collins Utilities, Xcel Energy, transmission & distribution losses Does not include Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) Energy mix is reflected in the calculations via emissions factors

9 Methods Natural Gas Data from Xcel Energy Includes Residential, Commercial, & Industrial emissions Methods Air Travel Based on fuel consumption at DIA, enplanement data, % of passengers from Fort Collins, reduced by number of connecting flights through DIA

10 Methods Ground Transportation Vehicle miles travelled (VMT) estimated by complex modeling by the North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization (NFRMPO) Latest estimate based on 2009 base model updated in fall 2011 with local demographic data & local traffic counts/surveys VMT distribution provided by CO Department of Public Health & Environment Fuel economy by vehicle type from Federal Highway Administration

11 Methods Solid Waste Accounts for the activity emissions that occur as a result of waste disposed by the community s population during the inventory year Includes process emissions associated with landfilling and collection and transportation emissions

12 Methods Water Includes emissions for water treatment processes, and conveyance & distribution of water Methods Wastewater Includes CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from combustion, treatment processes, and fugitive emissions from effluent discharge

13 Fort Collins Inventory Results 25.0% Fort Collins Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Sales & Use Tax, and Population % Change from % 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Greenhouse Gas Emissions Population Fort Collins Sales & Use Tax * -15.0% * Does not include the Keep Fort Collins Great tax increase

14 2013 Community GHG Inventory Percent Emissions per Source 0% 3% 4% Water related 19% Solid Waste 50% Air Travel Natural Gas Ground Travel 24% Electricity

15 Comparison to 2005 Baseline 3,000,000 Fort Collins Community GHG Emissions Metric Tons CO2e 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, % Water-related Solid Waste Air Travel Natural Gas Ground Travel Electricity 500,

16 Definition of Business as usual (BAU) Forecast The future GHG emissions inventory compiled using baseline trends in the absence of technical, political, or physical interventions to reduce GHG emissions (i.e., existing emissions rates) is referred to as the BAU forecast

17 BAU Forecast 4,000,000 Fort Collins GHG Emissions and Projections 3,500,000 3,000,000 Metric Tons CO 2 e 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Electricity Natural Gas Ground Travel Air Travel Solid Waste Management

18 Major BAU Forecast assumptions DOLA Fort Collins/Loveland population forecast Fort Collins Utilities detailed electricity forecast Current Fort Collins per capita solid waste generation used to project emissions U.S. Energy Information Administration projections for natural gas consumption by sector and source for the Mountain Region Projections from NFRMPO modeling for VMT

19 Bonnie Pierce, Ph.D. Environmental Data Analyst City of Fort Collins Phone: (970)