Enel Green Power. Clean Energy Summit. Gu Yoon Chung, Head of Business Development for Asia and Pacific area. Sydney, July 27 th 2016

Transcription

1 Enel Green Power Clean Energy Summit Gu Yoon Chung, Head of Business Development for Asia and Pacific area Sydney, July 27 th 2016

2 Enel today 1 Italy North America Capacity: 2.5 GW Capacity: 30.7 GW Networks: 1.14 mn km End users: 31.6 mn Mexico + Central America Free customers: 10.1 mn Capacity: 1.1 GW Iberia Latin America Capacity: 18.1 GW Networks: 0.32 mn km End users: 15.0 mn Capacity: 22.9 GW Networks: 0.32 mn km End users: 11.9 mn Free customers: 12.6 mn Africa Capacity: 0.01 GW Eastern Europe Capacity: 14.2 GW Networks: 0.09 mn km India Capacity: 0.2 GW 1. As of 31 st December Presence with operating assets = Enel presence 2 Enel Group Capacity: 89.7 GW Networks: 1.9 mn km End users: 61.2 mn Free customers: 22.8 mn End users: 2.7 mn Free customers: 0.1 mn 2

3 Countries and Regions Enel s organisation Simple and effective organization Administration, Finance and Control Human Resources and Organisation Communications Legal and Corporate Affairs Innovation and Sustainability European Affairs Audit Holding functions Global Procurement Group CEO Global ICT Italy Global Infrastructure and Networks Global Thermal Generation Global Renewable Energies Global Business Lines Global Trading and Upstream Gas Iberia Europe and North Africa Latin America Clients Local Stakeholders Regulatory Affairs Revenues Cash-flow Best Practice sharing Efficiency in capex and opex Capital allocation EBITDA North and Central America EBITDA 3 Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia

4 strategic plan update Operational efficiency Industrial growth Group simplification Active portfolio management Shareholder remuneration Additional savings in opex and maintenance capex Increasing and rebalancing growth capex, focusing on low-risk activities: networks, renewable and conventional generation with PPAs 1 Increasing economic interest and reducing group complexity Structural rotation of assets Increasing dividends during plan period, providing certainty in the transition phase with a minimum DPS 3 Opex Maintenance Capex -14% bn bn Growth Capex 3% 9% 53% 17.0 bn 34% Retail Generation Networks Renewables Regulated + quasi-regulated 2 Ongoing Operations Capital recycling Dividends policy EGP integration Latam restructuring 6 bn Additional growth capex Minorities buy-out Acquisitions 50% 55% 60% 65% 65% PPA: Power Purchase Agreement 2. Networks, generation with long-term PPA, renewables with PPA and generation in the Iberian islands 3. Minimum Dividend Per Share 2015: 0.16 /sh; 2016: 0.18 /sh 4

5 Innovation at Enel Conventional generation Improvement of operational and environmental performance, reducing emissions Renewable energies Performance improvement regarding all of the available technologies, integration of storage and research in new technologies Infrastructures and networks Continuous development of smart grids to manage distributed generation, electric mobility and increase the electric system reliability New products and services and e-mobility Development of new business models, to increase people s quality of life and to propose innovative solutions for companies, through the launch of new products and services mainly electricity-based 5

6 Enel Green Power A global leader 1 Total installed capacity by area North America 2.1 GW in operation 0.5 GW in execution 0.2 GW contracted Europe 6.2 GW in operation 0.2 GW in execution Europe 59% 2% 20% 10.6 GW 19% Rest of World North America Latin America Latin America 2.1 GW in operation 1.7 GW in execution 0.6 GW contracted Rest of World 0.2 GW in operation 0.5 GW in execution 0.7 GW contracted Solar Net production by technology 2% 33% Hydro 33.1 TWh Countries of presence Countries of interest Wind 46% 19% Geo 1. Data as of 30/09/2015. Production is LTM (01/10/ /09/2015) and includes 182GWh of biomass 6

7 Business development approach Business development process 2011 gross pipeline 1 1 Market analysis and scouting 34% North America 26.8 GW 2 Strategic partnerships Europe 47% 19% Latin America 3 4 Development process quality Integrating innovation 2015 gross pipeline 2 Latin America 50% 16% 22.3 GW 15% 19% Europe Rest of World North America 7 1. As of March As of April 2015

8 The Renewable Energy escalation Renewable Installed Capacity by Technology, Key Facts GW 2014 record year in additional Wind capacity (~ 50 GW) GW Record year in terms of PV additional capacity (~40 GW) 370 GW Record year in terms of geothermal additional capacity (~ 1 GW) 850 GW 90 GW 175 GW 950 GW Increasing n. of Countries with installed capacity higher >100MW: 37 for PV and 55 for Wind 50 GW 45 GW 3 GW Hydro Wind Biomass PV Total The evolution of renewable energy over the past decade has surpassed all expectations. Global installed capacity and production from all renewable technologies have increased substantially, and supporting policies have continued to spread to more countries in all regions of the world 8 Source: REN 21, The first decade: ; IRENA; BNEF; Enerdata; GlobalData; TSOs

9 Renewable role in demand growth Global electricity demand evolution ( ) Changes in the power production mix until 2035 Coal Gas Nucleare Rinnovabili China India USA EU M.East Africa -1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Note: Countries are clustered based on average annual growth of electricity demand : Negative demand decreases; Low growth < 0.5% ; Medium growth between 0.5% and 4%; High growth > 4%. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, New Energy Outlook 2015, Jun 2015 Renewables are expected to grow steadily all over the World Developing countries will account for over 60% of the global growth of electricity generation in 2035 Renewables are expected to account for about 50% of future energy supply growth 9

10 Renewable market overview Incentives vs Competitive mechanisms 2010 EGP countries of presence 16 countries of which 6 with competitive mechanisms/ppa Fixed incentive schemes (GC, Tariffs) 2016 EGP countries of presence and interest 49 countries of which 29 with competitive mechanisms/ppa Competitive mechanisms (tender/ppa) Country switched to auction or tender since Source: BNEF; internal analysis

11 EGP Competitiveness in Last Auctions Auctions are spreading worldwide Auctions results Key facts Key evidence of the sector Mexico Chile USA Wind: $ PV: $ Perù Wind: $ PV: $ Wind: $ 38 PV: $ 48 Hydro: $ 44 PV: $ Morocco Wind: $ 28 Brazil Wind: $ 49 PV: $ 81 Egypt Wind: $ UAE South Africa Wind: $ 51 PV: $ 65 India PV: $ 30 PV: $ 68 As long as they are properly designed both auctions and FITs are effective mechanisms FITs more proper in the initial phase of RES development to put together a critical mass of investments The world is moving towards competitive mechanisms as they reduce drastically renewables LCOE Key evidence EGP In 2015 EGP has been awarded 1.9 GW of capacity, a tenfold increase in comparison with 2012 Source: EGP internal Analysis Prices refer to $/MWh 11 levels EGP recent achievements in Morocco, Peru and Mexico demonstrated the success of EGP growth strategy

12 Macroeconomics Business Development Asia Pacific Market attractiveness High Geographical focus: India, Indonesia, Australia, Thailand, Vietnam and China Technology focus: Solar PV and wind as first step; hydro, geothermal long term Business model: Co-development Agreement and Long-term partnership Expected EGP Investment timeline: EGP to enter in 3 selected countries within 2017 Critical mass of MW per country Low Low RES/Energy sector attractiveness High Funnel analysis: from 50 Asian countries, to 25 attractive markets, to 9 targets. 12

13 Client centricity: from consumer to prosumer Smart Info and smart home Distributed generation Electric mobility Client centricity: from consumer to prosumer Energy saving Active demand Energy Storage 13

14 Size of Investment Solution Provider Expanding in the solution value chain Grid-tied solutions On/Off-grid solutions IPP Utility-scale solutions IPP Big Customer solutions Mini-Utility Mini-Micro-grid solutions Integrator DG solutions EGP Core Business Very reliant on auctions or FIT Storage as 6 th tech to master One buyer, 1 to n final customers Diesel as main competitor Need for reliable integrated solutions Vertical integration Operating Licence and Pre-Payment as enablers Customer management Vertical integration No interest in providing equipment Control platform as business enabler

15 New business models On-Grid storage Potenza Pietragalla 2MW/2MWh Catania 1MW/2MWh Fenner - US 4MW/1MWh Microgrid initiatives Ollague Chile 100 users Powerhive - Kenya 90,000 people Retail initiatives South Africa PV (up to 15kW) BESS (up to 14kWh) Inverter (up to 4.7kWh) 15

16 The Energy transition: Impact of distributed generation on the grids Power requested from TSO grid [MW] 40,000 Mon 30 Aug 2010 Mon 29 Aug ,000 20,000 10,000 Mon 27 Aug 2012 Mon 26 Aug 2013 Mon 25 Aug % Number of transformers HV/MV with inverted flow of energy between 2010 and July 2014: +257% 0 In Italy electricity flow is no more unidirectional, from big power plants to final clients. 16

17 IPP Utility Scale Storage solutions (1/2) Catania 1 Typical daily operation PROGRAM PV + BATTERY Only PV BATTERY UNBALANCING MINIMIZATION ENERGY SHIFTING PROGRAM EXECUTION UNBALANCING MINIMIZATION Reduction from 2,5% to 1,7% during the whole day h UNBALANCING MINIMIZATION Forecast error reduction from 4,2% to 0,5% ENERGY SHIFTING h Plant over production due to Battery capacity limit (2MWh) and its behavior during charging phase energy stored is used for the shifting h UNBALANCING MINIMIZATION Forecast error reduction from 2,1% to 1,7% h ENERGY SHIFTING Revenues: +17,50 (+40% vs h11 17, when energy was stored) 1MWh involved in shifting Expected revenues +1,3% during the whole day 17

18 Australia small scale solar PV One of the biggest penetration of small solar PV 1,57 million of dwelling Solar PV, totaling 18,49% of total residential 5,3 GW of installed Power, 2% of the Australian energy matrix share (QLD leading with 1,5 GW and 30% share) Small PV and storage trend Storage to balance the system 18 *data from the PV Australian Institute

19 A Decade of Change From the old model Generation Transmission Distribution Retail Customer A simple and linear model 19

20 A Decade of Change to a new energy market paradigm Actively manage the grid Distribution Link supply to load Transmission Retail Engage with customers Focus on baseload Bulk Generation Customer Become an active partcipant Customer becomes producers Distributed generation New market paradigm New entrants Offer new products and services Customers become active consumers Demand response Micro grids Customers go or remain off-grid Note: PWC Report: The road ahead - Gaining momentum from energy transformation, 2014 Storage Storage used to manage grids 20

21 The Green Revolution Success factors 1 6 Competitiveness 2 Environmental Sustainability Simplicity in Installation and Operation 5 3 Energy independence and reduction of prices volatility 4 Scalability and modular approach Job creation 21

22 Thank you For more information: For direct contact: 22