National Implementation of CSIS Core Functions: Republic of Moldova Rosca Ghennadii

Transcription

1 National Implementation of CSIS Core Functions: Republic of Moldova Rosca Ghennadii WMO International Workshop on CSIS Operations & Coordination, Nanjing, China, March 2017

2 Current Status of Climate Services The State Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Moldova is the only organization that has a unique system of observations reported to WMO standards and rules as well as national fund of climate and weather data, hydrological and environmental quality data components being currently the only reliable source that provide objective information on the status and evolution of weather and climate in the country. The potential of the Service allows not only to provide consumers with information on the state and traditional forecasting, but also hydrometeorological data application in research on climate change in Moldova and the region, thus helping to ensure sustainable economic development and environmental protection in region.

3 Climate network

4 Current Status of Climate Services Main Information Users Central and local public authorities The population through the media The authorities responsible for warning, prevention and mitigation of extreme events Companies of the energy sector Road and rail-road institutions Agriculture and forestry related organizations Scientific and research institutions Building companies The authorities from the natural resources sector Other structures of different forms of property

5 Companies of the energy sector Effective use of climatological information can have positive economic effects, which would bring enormous benefits to the population. The use of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, makes it possible to not only reduce the costs associated with fossil fuel production and delivery of other countries, but also improve the ecological state of the environment. Climate resources for wind energy: Average annual wind speed; Frequency (%) wind direction and calm wind; Frequency (%) of different gradation of wind speed; Climate resources for solar energy: Duration (hours) monthly and annual average sunshine; Duration (hours) monthly and annual average sunshine for one sunny day; Monthly and annual average number of days without sun The amount of monthly and annual global sun radiation, MJ/m2

6 Agricultural organizations: associations, farmers and individual producers of the agricultural products In the economic conditions of our country, it is extremely important to recognize the influence of weather conditions on the agricultural sector,particularly sensitive to climate variations.

7 Road Institutions Economic activity arises amid meteorological phenomena and climate change. Without knowledge about the climate roads can not be chosen. In the last years in our country the rehabilitation and repair of highways is actively carried out. Companies involved in that kind of activity, use climate data (for example: the amount of precipitation by a day, air temperature, the height of the snow cover, etc.). For the construction of the runway of International Airport Chisinau has been evaluated data on daytime of maximum possible rainfall once in 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 years.

8 Requirements in Climate Services The need for climate (long-term) forecasts Potential consumers of seasonal forecasts in Moldova are: Agricultural producers Building sector Energy Sector National and commercial banks Insurance Agencies

9 Data Requirements At the regional level: The need for climate data of neighboring countries, is necessary for constructing maps of the distribution of various climatic parameters (for example: creating the Climate Atlas). At the national level: Data on the wind speed at various altitudes from the wind generators (at the moment has been launched cooperation on this issue with some companies). Data on the amount of precipitation from departmental posts. Considering that Republic of Moldova is in an area with a high risk of showers, for creating of climate products, there is not enough data from the meteorological network of SHS. The country s legislation provides for the transfer to the National Fund of Hydrometeorological Data, but unfortunately it is not fully implemented in this part.

10 Global/Regional Products WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCCs): South East European Climate Change Center (SEEVCCC), North EurAsia Climate Centre (NEACC). RCOFs (Regional Climate Outlook Forum): SEECOF, MedCOF, NEACC. RA VI RCC Network Offenbach Node on Climate Monitoring (RCC-CM) - Climate Watch Advisory (cold wave, warm wave).

11 Global/Regional Products For making the 1 month forecast, we use products (maps) that are in open access. Issues and path to solve it: To improve the climate services, a larger access is required, including the longterm forecasts. We have limited access to ECMWF products.

12 Global/Regional Products The LC-LRFMME is taking the responsibility to access only the data provided by the participating centres. We would like to propose to increase access to LC-LRFMME for the WMO members (for example, to ECMWF products. To improve the climate products, it is necessary for trainings and access to CORDEX nodes.

13 Institutional Capacity Examples of cooperation on climate services for some institutions: Academy of Science: based on climatic data on air temperature and amount of the precipitation with Institute of Ecology and Geography developed Climatic Atlas. Ministry of Construction: have been prepared climatic data, including the wind and snow loads, for the development of building codes (also building control or building regulations) National Agency for Rural Development (ACSA). ACSA has about 75 regional and 350 local consultants in the country. As a result, SHS manage to provide prompt warning in the case of extreme phenomena (frosts, high and low temperature, heavy rains etc.). State Ecological Inspectorate for the calculation of pollutant emissions for enterprises, provide climate data on the amount of precipitation in different regions. Climate Change Office: providing climate data for the development of climate change scenarios.

14 Infrastructural Capacity Climate services provided by the Centre of Meteorology and Climatology, under the Meteorology Department. The main climatic products that are developed by the Center are climatic monographs and climate reference books. The limitations in the capacity of the data management, out-dated methodology with manual processes, and lack of training leads to a relatively small amount of services and products. Long-term projections made at the request of customers, up to 500 disposability information per year, free and paid products. The entire database is stored in personal computers in tabular format Excel. SHS has been very successful in increasing the volume of the historic (long time series) data by transforming manual data into digital format to be added to the databases. There is a growing demand to get the data on e.g. wind for wind energy applications. As SHS currently does not have adequate skilled staff, and not proper software it has not capacity to produce more sophisticated information required by investors and communes.

15 Climate Products

16 Analysis of the climatological conditions of the month: OCTOMBER 2016 Temperatura medie lunară a aerului în luna octombrie, a fost mai scăzută față de valorile normei cu 1,5-2,5ºС şi a constituit +6,5..+9,5ºС, ceea ce se semnaleaza în medie o dată în 5-10 ani. În decursul decadei a doua a lunii octombrie pe teritoriul țării s-a semnalat vreme anomal de rece. Temperatura medie a aerului pe decadă a fost mai joasă față de valorile normei cu 3,3-5,0ºС și a constituit +4,5..+7,5ºС, ceea ce se semnaleaza în medie o dată în ani. Temperatura maximă a aerului a urcat pînă la +28ºС (1 octombrie, SM Dubăsari). Temperatura minimă a aerului a scăzut pînă la-5ºс (18 octombrie, SM Bălțata). Suma precipitațiilor pe teritoriul țării a constituit mm sau 3-6 norme lunare. În luna octombrie pe 60% din teritoriu țării cantitatea precipitațiilor căzute ( mm) de 4-6 ori a depășit norma lunară pentru prima dată din toată perioada de observații. Ploile abundente căzute în a doua și a treia decadă a lunii au completat rezervele de umezeală productivă în sol și au îmbunătățit condițiile pentru efectuarea semănatului culturilor de toamnă. Dezvoltarea culturilor de toamnă în acest an, din cauza semănatului în termeni tîrzii, a avut loc în fond cu o lună mai tîrziu față de termenii obișnuiți. La semănăturile cu grîu de toamnă pe parcursul lunii în fond s-a semnalat fazele încolțirea semințelor și răsărirea, izolat apariția frunzei a treia. Unele gospodării ale țării au continuat efectuarea semănatului culturilor de toamnă. La situația din 28 octombrie a.c., pe semănăturile de toamnă și pe terenurile destinate pentru semănatul culturilor de toamnă rezervele de umezeală productivă în stratul arabil al solului au constituit mm ( % din normă), în stratul de sol cu grosimea de 1 m mm (90-200% din normă). Condițiile meteorologice au fost în fond favorabile pentru maturizarea lemnului la plantațiile multianuale și vița de vie. La situația din 28 octombrie, rezervele de umezeală productivă în stratul de sol cu grosimea de 1 m pe terenurile cu culturi multianuale au constituit mm ( % din normă).

17 Annual average air temperature changes Monthly precipitation amount on the MS Chisinau 2016 Chisinau ( ) Average monthly air temperature at MS Chisinau 2016 String years with the average annual high temperature, MS Chisinau

18 Staff Capacity Number of staff working with climate issues is 9 ( BSc). Currently the climate services at SHS are based on very simple analyses of the observation data. Dissemination of climate data produced is very poor and thus utilization the data and products very limited. The database and tools in use do not enable rapid and efficiency product of any services. It is necessary to establish an adequate database which enables efficient retrieval of data and also production of climate products such as: periodical bulletins, statistical summaries, spatial analyses, products for risk analyses, calculated parameters valuable for different sectors, etc. It is necessary to implement adequate software to produce fluently and rapidly different types of statistics, to make interpolation within the observation networks, to show statistics and different data in map format and to disseminate such data through Internet.

19 Staff Capacity Scenarios depicting the future climate conditions are needed e.g. for efficient adaptation planning. Climate change projections can be downloaded from international databases like CMIP5 and CORDEX. For Moldavian applications this data needs to be downscaled and adjusted to local conditions. This work can be done using ordinary PCs, but to get started some external consulting work (1-2 months) is required. In order to satisfactory utilize the database and software, and to better understand use of climate data by different economic sectors, the SHS staffs needs to be trained.

20 General expectations from CSIS The basic strategy is to significantly strengthen and modernize provision of weather and climate services to better support the economic development of the country and daily needs of the citizens. Better products, services and service delivery will increase the market for weather and climate products and support SHS s commercial activities. Capacity building Capacity building of the staff, to maintain, update or extend the professional skills is an important element of modernization of SHS. A good organization should constantly adapt, change and improve itself to answer to the changing needs of the expert field. Capacity building may be divided to the following parts: Human resource capacity Equipping individuals with the understanding, skills, information, knowledge and training to enable them to generate, communicate and use decision-relevant meteorological information; Infrastructural capacity Enabling access to the resources that are needed to generate, archive and use meteorological data and decision-relevant information, including observing networks, data management systems, computer hardware and software, internet, manuals and scientific literature; Procedural capacity Defining, implementing and advancing best practices for generating and using climatological information; Institutional capacity Elaborating management structures, processes and procedures that enable effective services, not only within organizations but also in managing relationships between the different organizations and sectors (public, private and community, including international collaboration).

21 Climate Services Toolkit For effectiveness of climate service in our country, including for creating new climate products, for us is important and necessary access to: Climate data Guidance material Methodology documentation Software tools/packages Training material

22 Climate Services Toolkit Thank you!