CAS-16 and the pre-cas TECO: Preparing CAS, WWRP and GAW for Emerging Challenges

Transcription

1 CAS-16 and the pre-cas TECO: Preparing CAS, WWRP and GAW for Emerging Challenges Michel Béland, President CAS

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3 (Billion)

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6 A RAPIDLY WARMING EARTH

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9 Possible feedback Reduced sea ice in August/September Additional heat stored in ocean Warmer surface temperatures in following seasons Reduced atmospheric vertical stability Amplified baroclinic weather systems in autumn Jaiser et al., Tellus 2012 Arctic Response Impact on planetary systems in winter Negative Arctic Oscillation phase Large-scale Response Enhanced possibility of cold winters in Central Europe CAS TECO, Antalya, Turkey.

10 Figure 1 Land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red), meter OHC increase (light blue), 700-2,000 meter OHC increase (dark blue)

11 It s the ocean, colleagues! JCOMM CAS CCl WCRP

12 AS A RESULT OF:

13 WMO (GAW) 2013 Greenhouse Gas Bulletin

14 Some impacts

15 By 2080, 39% of lizard populations and 20% of all lizard species Antalya, will be extinct. CAS TECO, Turkey.

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18 Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards ( ) Near 90% of disasters were caused by Weather, Climate, and water-related Hazards. Extreme Temperature 3.6% Flood 30% Slides 5% Drought 7% Wild Fires 3.5% Epidemic, famine, insects 14% Windstorm 25% Tsunami 0.39% Volcano 1.6% Earthquake 9% Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database -

19 EXPANDING GLOBAL URBANIZATION

20 Percentage of urban population Half of world s population already lives in urban areas Between 2011 and 2050 population to increase from 7 to over 9 billion Urban population to increase from 3.6 to 6.2 billion, 66% of total population Most urban population growth to occur in the less developed regions The number of megacities ( 10 million) is currently 23 and is expected to reach 37 in Adapted from United Nations 2012

21 United Nations 2012 Between half and two thirds of the cities with 1 million inhabitants or more are located in areas that face high risk of exposure to at least one natural disaster.

22 GAW Urban Research Meteorology and Environment GURME project

23 Lima Favela, Peru, April 2010

24 Machu Picchu, Peru, 2 April 2010

25 MORBIDITY INCREASE FROM AIR POLLUTION

26 WHO 2009 More than 1 billion people are exposed to outdoor air pollution. Urban air pollution is linked to up to 1.3 million premature deaths and a cost of 2 to 5% of GDP.

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28 In 2010, 223,000 deaths from lung cancer alone worldwide

29 Space Based Earth Observing Systems, And Other New Techniques

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31 NOAA NESDIS

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33 6 0 4 N AT U R E VO L O C T O B E R By JEFF TOLLEFSON

34 . This study shows that it is possible to estimate relatively accurate daily urban canopy layer air temperatures from smartphone battery temperature readings employing a straightforward heat transfer model. By averaging over a sufficiently large number of battery temperature readings, the existing variation in thermal conductivity over individual readings is adequately filtered. Moreover, the influence of outside air temperatures is sufficiently reflected in the battery temperature readings, despite the fact that a subset of readings has likely been taken inside buildings. This proof of principle shows that monitoring air temperatures employing smartphones with an Android application holds great promise, although neither the application nor the smartphones have been designed for that purpose. Geophysical Research Letters Volume 40, Issue 15, pages , 14 AUG 2013 DOI: /grl

35 Using Cell Phones to Observe Precipitation CAS TECO, Antalya, Turkey

36 HYDROLOGICAL and ATMOSPHERIC MODELING

37 Within the next 20 years, a 40% gap!

38 The maps beside combine data from the twin satellites of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) with other satellite and ground-based measurements to model the relative amount of water stored near the surface and underground. The top map shows moisture content in the top 2 centimeters (0.8 inches) of surface soil as observed between January 8 and January 14, 2013; the bottom map shows the abundance of groundwater in aquifers. The soil moisture map depicts short-term conditions, while the groundwater map offers a longer-term perspective.

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40 The bloom is primarily microcystis aeruginosa, an algae that is toxic to mammals. Several days of calm winds and warm temperatures allowed the algae to gather on the surface. CAS TECO, Antalya, Turkey.

41 H-EPS member Hydrological spaghetti plots Streamflow forecast Black River near Washago PDF vs histogram Smoothed ensemble forecast of mean monthly outflow for Lake Superior Lake Ontario level EPS mass, energy and momentum fluxes MESH Land surface scheme and hydrological model streamflow and lake levels CMC EPS prognostic variables, e.g. soil moisture

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43 System Terascale (2002) Petascale (2009) Exascale (2009) Petascale (2012) Tianhe-2 (2013) Exascale (2013) Intel (2013) Jaguar DARPA Projection Titan 1/30 of Exascale 30xTianhe-2 Extrapolation # of nodes K 223.8K No longer defined # of cores/node * 12* 360 # of cores K 166M 560K 3.1M 93,6M 25M # of racks ~200 Total Mem(TB) Projection No longer defined TB 71TB 1,024TB 3,072TB 8-50PB Disk (TB) 3580TB 150 PB Peak (Petaflops/s) Total Power (Mwatts) , , MW MW Gflops/W

44 Scaling limits of present day algorithms; Innovative algorithms that exploit GPUs or Xeon PHIs currently disruptive to Atmospheric Science applications; Strategies to mitigate high memory latencies; Hierarchical algorithms to deal with BW across the memory architecture; Need for fault tolerance applications; Scalable I/O for mining simulation data.

45 FACING UP TO CLIMATE CHANGE: MITIGATION?

46 The cost of mitigation

47 100 Percent of 2010 Emissions 50 Enhance Develop System System Establish Baselines How will Society Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emission We don t know... but.. Maintain System Critical Verif ication Period Fine Grid, Robust Verification 20 Courtesy of Jim Butler Time

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49 OR GEOENGINEERING?

50 From the New Scientist, 2009

51 Iron fertilization would have to be performed on a truly gigantic scale to have an impact on our climate

52 Increasing Urbanization and its specific challenges High impact weather and its socio-economic impacts (HIW, and PPP, S2S), links with commercial services, partnerships, Water and its importance in the earth system, and as a major cause of catastrophes, Aerosols and their consequences to human health and the weather and climate system, Learning from evolving technology in observations, Learning from evolving technology in supercomputing and tele-communications, Finding the balance between climate change mitigation and adaptation through improved information on GHG, GFCS, etc... Whether CAS and WMO should strive for a position on Geoengineering

53 Thank you for your attention This space can be used for contact information