Overview of the Global Calculator

Transcription

1 Overview of the

2 Built on the country calculators The emerged from a number of successful country calculators including: the UK 2050 pathways calculator Latest has just been published The Swiss with several different scenarios, videos, focus years, a MOOC and in four different languages!

3 Country calculator locations In place Under consideration

4 Country calculator locations In place Under consideration

5 We will build it in partnership with a range of international experts Team leader Led by Alexandre Strapasson & Nicole Kalas Lead modeller Electricity and fossil fuels Transport Materials Buildings Land/bio/ food Climate science Visuals Funding: 550K DECC ICF funds 480K Climate-KIC. Support from: World Resources Institute, USA Utrecht University, Netherlands Potsdam Institute, Germany Walker Institute, UK Rothamsted Research, UK University of Versailles Saint- Quentin-en-Yvelines, France Met Office, UK Tyndall Centre, UK.

6 Countries have committed to keep the global mean temperature rise to 2C warming The UNFCCC negotiations in December 2015 will be critical.

7 But there is much uncertainty about the changes in behaviour and technology required to achieve this Can all 10bn of us have higher living standards and meet 2C? How many wind turbines, solar panels, etc needed? Can we meet 2C without nuclear? How much land is needed to produce enough food for everyone? Is there a trade off with land for bioenergy? How much fossil fuel can be burnt and meet 2C? How much do we need to leave in the ground? How uncertain are the climate impacts?

8 The will help experts communicate more effectively with influential decision makers Sector experts e.g. academics; experts within government, industry, NGOs. Influential decision makers (e.g. leaders of businesses, NGOs, senior government officials and politicians)

9 The is a scenario testing tool covering all global greenhouse gas emissions Most open source energy, food, land and climate model in the world. Includes all global GHG emissions from electricity generation, transport, buildings, manufacturing, food and land use in period to Shows the full range of potential ambition across sectors. Shows the impact of your pathway on the climate system, according to the latest climate science from the IPCC. Shows over 30 graphs and tables on the energy, food and land system in your pathway, and feedback on how to improve it. Over 100 experts involved in the build of the tool.

10 The user is given 40 levers for reducing emissions, each of which has level 1 to 4 The level 1-4 range is simply a synthesis of what a wide range of credible experts believe could be possible by More abatement effort Level 1: Minimum abatement effort Level 2: ambitious but achievable Level 3: very ambitious but achievable Level 4: extraordinarily ambitious and extreme Most experts will tend to congregate here Only a minority of experts will think this is possible. An extreme view.

11 Driver tree for Land/Bio/Food Calories consumed Meat consumed Land for food crops Carbon credits & Energy Wastes and Residues Land-use efficiency Carbon emissions and sequestration Emissions (CO 2, N 2 O and CH 4 ) Conversion efficiencies Type of meat I N P U T S Energy, Natural Resources, Fertilisers, CO 2 Crop yields Land use efficiency Animal feedlots Pasture animal density Surplus land (forest and bioenergy ) Bioenergy yields (crop) Type of bioenergy (solid biomass and biofuels) Land for livestock Land for forest conservation, wood products and natural regeneration Land for energy crops Deserts, ice, rivers, lakes Settlements, infrastructure O U T P U T S Lever options and parameters Calculations and results Source: Strapasson, A., Kalas, N., Woods, J. (2014). Briefing Paper on Land, Food and Bioenergy of the Project. UK DECC and Imperial College London.

12 The webtool tool, background, documentation and call for evidence is here: or direct: tool.globalcalculator.org

13 We plan to re-release the in January 2015 December: side event at Lima COP. January: re-release of. January to March: programme of promotional events around the world. If you want to sign up to our mailing list, please go to:

14 Screen shots (in case internet is not working!)

15 Overview tab

16 Energy tab

17 Resources tab

18 Climate tab

19 Lifestyle tab with all levers expanded