1. Introduction. Projection of Municipal and Industrial Water demands for the Nile Basin

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1 Projection of Municipal and Industrial Water demands for the Nile Basin Terms of reference for an individual consultant Water Demand Forecaster 1. Introduction The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is a partnership of the 10 Nile Basin riparian states with a shared vision objective to promote sustainable socio economic development through the equitable utilization of and benefit from the shared Nile Basin water resources. NBI has three programs, namely, the Basin Wide Program implemented by the NBI Secretariat located in Entebbe, Uganda, the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP) implemented by the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) located in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) implemented by NELSAP Coordination Unit located in Kigali, Rwanda. The ENSAP and NELSAP focus on preparation and implementation facilitation of investments in water infrastructure in the Eastern Nile sub basins and the Nile Equatorial Lakes sub basins, respectively. The Basin Wide Program has a geographic scope of the entire Nile Basin and focuses on facilitating the dialogue among the riparian countries, carrying out analytic work (such as strategic water resources analysis) to inform the dialogue, formulation of transboundary policies, strengthening basin monitoring and data sharing and capacity development for cooperative water resources management. To support the on going strategic water resources analysis, the Nile Sec intends to employ the services of a team of individual consultants to develop projections of water demand and scenarios of water saving from key uses in the Municipal and Industrial sectors, hereinafter referred to as the Assignment. The team of individual consultants is envisaged to comprise the following: Team Leader Water demand forecaster (subject of this Terms of Reference) Further, depending on need, the Client envisages the possibility for engaging local/national consultants to support in data collection from individual NBI member states to support the Assignment. The assignment described in this ToR is funded through NBI member country contributions, German Government and the European Union through the EU BMZ program on transboundary water cooperation for the Nile Basin. This document presents the terms of reference for the Assignment. The Consultant will be selected competitively based on Nile Sec s procurement procedures.

2 2. Background The NBI Secretariat (Nile Sec) launched its strategic water resources analysis in 2015 and completed the first phase in The strategic water resources analysis is aimed at developing options of measures (water resources infrastructure and management options) for meeting the growing water demand in the Nile Basin sustainably reducing the stress on the river system and minimizing water allocation related tensions among the riparian countries. The first phase of the analysis focused on water supply and demand assessment and yielded estimates of water availability and water demands/uses as of 2014 and projections into Further, a Nile Basin water resources model was developed, which included existing water infrastructure and those planned to be implemented in the 2050 time horizon. According to plans compiled from the Nile Basin countries, irrigated agriculture is expected to expand approximately by 60 percent of the 2014 baseline. Further, irrigation water demand is expected to remain the main water user (estimated to consume up to % of water) in the foreseeable future. According to UN estimate 1, total population of the basin countries is projected to reach 932 Million to 1.14 Billion inhabitants (low and high growth variant). Further, the proportion of the population living in urban areas is increasing with implication in water demand growth. The first phase estimated current (as of 2014) M and I water demands for selected urban centers but no projection was made for Therefore, the Nile Sec intends to refine current estimates of M and I water demand/use and projections into the 2050 time horizon. Further, in order to support generation of options for meeting the growing water demand more efficiently, the Nile Sec plans to develop options for water saving in the M and I water use sectors. 3. Objective The overall objective of the Assignment is to contribute towards generation of strategic options for meeting the growing water demands in the Nile Basin more efficiently and sustainably. The specific objectives of the assignment are: i) To develop refined baseline water demand and actual M and I water use for 2016 ii) To develop projection of water demands and water use estimates for Municipal and Industrial uses for the Nile Basin in the 2050 time horizon iii) Develop viable scope for water saving from the municipal and industrial water use sectors through employment of various measures, such as demand side management, adoption of water efficient technologies and reduction of losses. The purpose of the water demand projection exercise is to provide strategic information for assessing how the water demands in the Nile Basin grow over the coming 3 decades and identify water saving options. 1 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision,

3 4. Approach The projection of population and water demand shall be based on credible data and methodology commensurate with the intended use of the projections. The following are key elements of the approach that the Consultant is required to follow in developing the projections: The projection methodology must be valid and widely acceptable, both by users of the results and demographic forecasting practitioners. The projection approach must be transparent and understandable to the extent possible. The projections must be replicable. In keeping with state of the art practice employed internationally and by NBI countries, the projections must be economically based and then linked to demographic factors in an integrated manner. The projections must be able to produce population forecasts for each country to the year 2050 under high, medium, and low economic development assumptions. 5. Scope of work The scope of work shall include the secondary data collection, processing, consulting and any other analytic work needed to prepare the projections of water demands as well as scenarios of water saving from Municipal and Industrial water use sectors. The overall scope of the Assignment has to parts: i) projection of water demand for Municipal and Industrial water use sectors; ii) generate scenarios of water savings from Municipal and Industrial water uses through various water saving measures. The Water Demand Forecaster shall work under the guidance and supervision of the Team Leader (to be contracted under a separate ToR). The scope of work includes, but not limited to, the following: Task 1: Collect, compile and process data and Develop a data base of current M&I water uses in the Nile basin i) Review the objective, scope and specific requirements of the strategic water resources analysis with respect to the Municipal and Industrial water demand projection; ii) Contribute towards development of data requirements for estimating current (as of the year 2017) and future water demands for Municipal and Industrial uses; iii) Collect, systematically compile and process collected data on key water uses/users for preparing the projections. Where data obtained from national sources are not sufficient, use appropriate methodology to fill in the data gaps, including use of data from credible regional and international sources; The client foresees the option for engaging national consultants to support in national data collection. In this regard, when requested, consultant shall supervise data collection, compilation and processing by the national consultants and the Water Demand Forecaster. The Consultant shall be responsible for the completeness and quality control of all data collected.

4 iv) For the energy sector, extract the site of major energy generating capacities (oil and gas extraction industry, coal and natural gas fired and nuclear power generation plants) in a site by site database from the appropriate studies providing classification of the plants. v) A geo referenced database of the water users is required that can link to extraction nodes from the water balance model. The initial focus (scoping of assignment) shall be on those M&I water users that consume water from the main stream / lakes of the river network. This is to be discussed and refined with the client. Therefore for each water user (a municipality or major industrial water use complex (aggregated) there needs to be a table describing the source (by %) of the water (river, groundwater, etc.). The Water Demand Forecaster shall develop the geo referenced database of current key water users (cities, industries, etc) together with their key attributes. These key water users are the ones that have been included in the estimation of current (2017) water demands. vi) Submit the systematically compiled data on key water uses to the client. The client intends to use its staff resources to prepare a database of key water uses/users in the Nile Basin for future studies and regular updating. The consultant shall supervise the preparation of database of key water uses/users; vii) Develop refined estimates of baseline water demand and actual water use for 2017; this refined estimate shall be based on the estimates made by Nile Sec for 2014 but further enhanced through new data collected under the Assignment. viii) Contribute towards the preparation of Technical Note I documenting the methodology, datasets used and refined estimates of current water demand and use (as of 2017). Task 2: Projection of M&I Water Demand The development of future (year 2050) water demand projection shall be the primary responsibility of the Water Demand Forecaster (to be contracted under a separate ToR). The specific scope of work of the Consultant shall include, but not limited to, the following: i) Contribute towards the collection and review available population and economic projection scenarios, data and methodology prepared by NBI countries (including national census), RECs, UN agencies, the private sector in the Nile Basin countries, the World Bank and other relevant national, sub regional and regional entities; The scenarios shall include, among others, consistent scenarios of population growth, economic growth including industrial growth and living standard changes.

5 The NBI Secretariat, under a separate contract, is currently developing socio economic framework scenarios. The Consultant shall review and make use as appropriate these scenarios in the projection of M and I water demands. ii) Review available water demand projections from national planning documents and provide expert analysis and recommendations on projections to be used in the Assignment. iii) Develop projections of water demands (for year 2050) for each of the nodes: a) Urban Water Demands Mega cities (those >= 2 million people) Medium size cities (250,000 to 2 million) Urban centers (less than ) For the following use components in these nodes: Municipal water needs (groundwater, surface water) Industrial (groundwater, surface) : b) For the energy sector make use of scenarios (e.g. basin wide power study) to provide a projection of power generation sites and water demands. The projections shall be prepared on annual basis up till the year iv) Develop updated database of water use nodes and their projected water demands to be prepared by the Water Demand Forecaster. v) Contribute towards Technical Note II documenting the results of water demand projections. The Technical Note II shall be submitted together with database of water user nodes and their scenarios of water demand projections. Task 3: Asses water saving potential in M&I Water Use vi) As per the guidance and instruction from the Team Leader, contribute towards development of scopes / rough assessments for water saving for key sectors covered in the projections through adoption of measures, such as demand side management, reduction of losses, and use of more water efficient technologies. Describe the types of measure to be included in a potential future basin plan / investment plan moving forward. vii) Provide inputs to Technical Note III documenting results on water saving options. Task 4: Consultation and Reporting i) When requested by the Client, physically participate in review workshops and present findings from the Assignment, respond to stakeholder requests. Further accommodate stakeholder review comments into findings of the Assignment; ii) Provide substantive inputs to all progress reports, technical notes and other deliverables. 6. Deliverables

6 The deliverables of the Water Demand Forecaster shall be closely aligned to and contribute towards the overall deliverables of the water demand projection study (the Assignment). The deliverables of the Assignment are given in Table 1. No Title and description due date from start, Weeks 1 Inputs to the preparation of Inception report (as per guidance of Team Leader) 2 Refined M and I water demand estimates for Nile Basin for the base year of 2017 together with database of water users. 3 Improved M and I water demand estimates for Nile Basin for base year of 2017 First draft water demand projection for 2050 Updated database of water users and their projected water demands 4 First draft water demand projection for 2050 Updated database of water users and their projected water demands Schedule The Assignment is expected to start on/about May 2018 and lasts for 6 calendar months, Indicative milestone plan is shown in Table 2. Table 2: Milestone plan Milestone Plan for Water demand projection study No Milestone dates start end Assignment start date 01 Oct Jun 19 1 Inception report submitted (Deliverable 1) 27 Oct 18 3 Interim Progress Report 1: together with Technical Note I and database; 21 Dec th Regional Expert Group workshop (Kigali); Consultant to present interim findings Interim Progress Report II: together with Technical Notes and updated database (Deliverable 3) 24 Feb Mar Feb 19 5 Interim Progress Report III (final): together with Technical notes and updated database (Deliverable 4) 26 Apr 19 6 Final Report together with Technical Note III and Policy Brief 31 May 19 7 Technical Notes completed 20 Jun Level of effort, budget and payment schedule

7 The total level of effort for this assignment is expected to be 60 man days distributed over the contract period from on/about 1 st October 2018 to 30 June The Client shall pay the consultant a total professional fee of USD (to be determined based on agreed daily professional fee rate). Cost for work related travels for the consultant shall be separately paid by the Client as per prevailing regulations of the NBI. It is estimated that the consultant shall undertake two trips to the NBI region. The total travel related costs shall not exceed USD xxx. All travels will have to be approved by the task manager and arrangements for the Consultant shall be made by the Client, according to GIZ and NBI rules and procedures. 9. Consultant s proposal Interested consultants are requested to submit technical as well as financial proposals (two envelops) to the client. The client shall consider the quality of the technical approach, methodology and consultant s expertise in the selection of the consultant for the assignment. Final selection of the consultant and award of the contract shall be based on considerations of technical as well as financial proposals. Payment schedule: payment of professional fee shall be made against deliverables accepted by the client. The proposed payment schedule is given in Table 3. Table 3: Payment schedule No Payment condition: acceptance by client of deliverables listed below: % payment 1 Inputs to the preparation of Inception report (as per guidance of Team Leader) 2 Refined M and I water demand estimates for Nile Basin for the base year of 2017 together with database of water users. 3 Improved M and I water demand estimates for Nile Basin for base year of 2017 First draft water demand projections for 2050 Updated database of water users and their projected water demands 4 Final water demand projection for 2050 Updated database of water users and their projected water demands

8 10. Implementation arrangement The consultant shall sign contract with NBI Secretariat. The contract shall be a lump sum contract where payment shall be upon submission of acceptable deliverables (see deliverables list and payment schedule above). The Nile Sec shall be responsible for the technical oversight. The Nile Sec shall designate one of its senior staffs as the task manager to whom the Consultant shall report. The consultant shall work from his/her home venue and partly from the NBI secretariat. 11. Minimum qualifications and experience The expert should meet the following academic and expertise as a minimum: An MSC or equivalent degree in regional development, water resources management, or related fields. A minimum of 15 years of professional experience in projection of water demand for Municipal and Industrial uses; Proven experience in technical writing.