Informing Water Management Decisions in Large Scale Restoration Programs: the use of Ecological Models in the Evaluation of Project Plans

Transcription

1 Informing Water Management Decisions in Large Scale Restoration Programs: the use of Ecological Models in the Evaluation of Project Plans Agnes R. McLean, National Park Service, Everglades National Park CEER 2014 New Orleans, LA

2 Everglades Restoration Planning The Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP) was a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers pilot project for expedited restoration planning (2013) Ecological planning tools, or models, were used to quickly visualize and evaluate alternative project plan effects on Everglades wildlife and vegetation

3 Ecological Planning Models Are helpful to facilitate the evaluation and assessment of alternative approaches to the restoration of imperiled / degraded ecosystems These modeling tools provide additional information by linking ecological effects of alternative plans to hydrology

4 Ecological Planning Models CISRERP (2010) concluded that Improved species models are urgently needed to provide more rigorous scientific support for water management decisions RECOVER-funded research and monitoring over the past 10 years has furthered the development and use of ecological models in Everglades restoration planning and assessment

5 Areas of Interest

6 Ecological Models: Northern Estuaries Oyster habitat suitability index Shoal grass and manatee grass shoot density

7 Ecological Models: Greater Everglades Trophic: Prey-base freshwater fish density Large freshwater fish (bass) density

8 Freshwater fish density NSRSM v Alt4R2: Percent change in average fish density* over 41-year time period ( ) *Note the scale in left and right graphics; red colors denote greater density

9 Greater Everglades, cont d Trophic: Wood stork foraging probability Wading bird nesting Apple snail population Alligator production index

10 Greater Everglades, cont d Landscape: Marl prairie habitat suitability Everglades Landscape Vegetation Succession Model (ELVeS)

11 Ecological Models: Southern Coastal Systems Pink shrimp production index Seagrass 30 community biomass and spp composition 5 0 Crocodile growth and survival index Juvenile spotted seatrout % change from FWO in crocodile growth and survival index Alt4R Alt4R1989

12 Ecological Models for CEPP How Were They Used? In the Environmental Effects (NEPA) section of the project report to provide additional information to the planning process In the RECOVER system-wide analysis of project alternatives, and to provide recommendations to the project team

13 How Were They Used, cont d In the assessment of the project s contribution to the achievement of meeting Interim Goals, as required by the CERP Programmatic Regulations In the Corps Biological Assessment In the FWS Coordination Act Report

14 Next Steps Approval for use by USACE Ecosystem Center of Expertise (ECO-PCX) Would allow greater flexibility in application Could potentially allow ecological models to be utilized in project benefits analysis (i.e., the decision-making process)

15 Acknowledgements: Gorman et al, SFWMD Donalson, USACE Trexler and Catano, FIU Gawlik et al, FAU Beerens, FAU Pearlstine et al, ENP Romanach, USGS / JEM Browder, NOAA Madden, SFWMD Brandt, FWS Kelble, NOAA

16 Thank you Questions?