Experiences with the German and European Market Access Programs

Transcription

1 1st Solar Symposium July 14, 2008, San Francisco, California German American Chambers of Commerce Experiences with the German and European Market Access Programs Gerhard Stryi-Hipp Managing Director German Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar) Stralauer Platz 34, Berlin, Germany Tel , Fax

2 German Solar Industry Association Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft BSW-Solar TASK Represent the German solar industry in the solar thermal energy and photovoltaics sectors VISION A worldwide sustainable energy supply provided by solar energy ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market observation, standardization TIME Over 25 years of activity in the solar energy sector MEMBERS More than 600 solar producers, suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other companies active in the solar business HEADQUARTERS Berlin BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 2

3 We should leave oil before it leaves us Fatih Birol, chief economist IEA, March 2008 Brent Crude Oil price increased from 50 $ (Jan 2007) to 147 $ (July 2008) per barrel Increasingly mounting problems with our fossil-nuclear energy supply system Security of supply critical, due to strong growing energy import dependency especially from problematic regions Fossil and nuclear energy sources are finite Growing demand and limited resources are the reason for exploding energy prices Climate change Caused by human energy consumption climate change is a reality as the UN-IPCC report has proven CO 2 -Concentration is growing continuously (IPCC 2007) BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 3

4 The Sustainable Solution: Mix of Renewable Energies Only Renewable Energies are everlasting are domestic energy sources are sustainable do not harm the climate are becoming cheaper and cheaper increase domestic and regional added value are creating jobs Quelle: Aus BMU, Daten EE, Juni 2007 Challenges for RES are the financing of investments as long as RES are more expensive than fossil and nuclear energy the reconstruction of the energy supply system to a distributed generation system based on RES Quelle: Solarwatt Quelle: Wagner & Co BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 4

5 Why do we need Photovoltaics? PV is the most fascinating way to produce electricity Source: Aleo Advantages PV can be used everywhere worldwide PV can be used grid connected and off-grid PV canbeusedin every size PV needs only one initial investment PV does not harm the environment PV has the biggest potential among all RES Source: Solarwatt Challenge: Today, PV is often the most expensive way to produce electricity using RES, but PV has the highest cost reduction potential Source: Phönix => PV has to be developed today in order to have (1) enough solar capacity available in one decade (2) at a competitive price Source: SMA BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 5

6 World Energy Consumption Solar is needed 1400 Geothermal other Renewables Solarthermal Solar electricity (CSP/PV) 1000 Wind Biomass (modern) Biomass (traditional) Hydro 600 Nuclear Power Gas Coal Oil ? Year Source: WBGU, German Advisory Council on Global Change (2006) BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 6

7 Photovoltaic World Market Newly installed PV Power in 2007: 2.4 GWp Germany 1100 MWp; 46% Spain 425 MWp; 18% USA 190 MWp; 8% Japan 230 MWp 10% ROW 220 MWp; 9% Italy 50 MWp; 2% Switzerland 7 MWp; 0.3% France 45 MWp; 2% Portugal 10 MWp; 0.4% ROEU 15 MWp; 0.6% China 20 MWp; 1% South Korea 50 MWp; 2% India 20 MWp; 1% Australia 20 MWp; 1% Source: EPIA, BSW, ASIF, SEIA Updated 15 July 2008 BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 7

8 TOP PV markets 2006 and 2007 ROW UK 13 Switzerland 12 Portugal 11 Australia 10 China 9 India 8 France 7 South Korea 5 Italy 5 USA 4 Japan 3 Spain 2 Germany 1 3,4 3,4 2,5 7,1 2 14,5 9, , , , Total maket volume: 2006: MWp 2007: MWp New installed 2006 New installed 2007 European Markets MWp Updated 15 July 2008, Source: 2007: EPIA/BSW/national PV associations, 2006: Eurobserver, IEA-PVPS BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 8

9 Germany BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 9

10 Germany: A clear policy to increase the share of RES continuously Target 30% Target German Government Share RES of energy consumption Share RES of electricity consumption Share RES of heating Share RES of fuels for road traffic Primary Final energy consumption Share RES of total energy consumption Source: German Federal Ministry for Environment, March 2008 BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 10

11 Share of Solar Electricity in Germany Share of PV electricity - of electricity consumption 2007: 0.6% (2006: 0.44%) - of renewable energy electricity 2007: 3.5% (2006: 3.1%) Distribution of Renewable Energy Electricity Production in Germany 2007 Wind energy 38.5 TWh; 48% Photovoltaics 3.0 TWh; 4% Bio energy solid 6.6 TWh; 8% Total RES electricity production 2007: 86.7 TWh RES share of electricity consumption: 14.3% Hydro energy 21.7 TWh; 27% Bio gas 8.9 TWh; 11% Bio energy liquid 1.2 TWh; 2% Geothermal 0.1 TWh; 0.1% Source: BEE, Jan 2008 BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 11

12 Germany: Market Segments of on-grid PV Systems Image: Sharp Ground Roof top BIPV mounted Effort of mounting residential homes 1-10 kwp 27% Image: Solarwatt Market share in 2006 Image: Schüco 1% multi family houses, public + social buildings, farms, commercial plants kwp 49% Image: Solarwatt Image: Grammer Large and very large commercial > 100 kwp Image: BP 10% 13% Size of the system Image: Geosol Image: Geosol BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 12

13 Market Share of PV Systems According to Size 100% 90% 80% 70% > % >5-10 > % 40% >2-5 kwp 30% 20% 10% 0-2 kwp 0% > 1000 > > > > >20-50 >10-20 >5-10 > kwp Source: BSW-Solar, calculated from data of 2.2 GWp PV systems from EnBW, EON, RWE, Vattenfall BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 13

14 Grid-Connected PV Systems in Germany Each kwh of solar electricity produced is fed into the grid, sold to the utility and paid at a fixed price Photovoltaic modules Inverter DC/AC Consumption meter Feed-in electricity meter Typical data of a small PV system (per kwp) Investment costs: 4,500 (6,525 $) Annual production of solar electricity: 900 kwh/a Feed-in tariff: /kwh (0.67 $/kwh) payed over 20 years Feed-in payment: Interest rates (KfW): 420 /a (610 $/a) 5.2%/a eff 1 $ = 0.69 BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 14

15 Two Ways of Connecting PV Systems to the Grid otovoltaic dules Inverter DC/AC Photovoltaic modules Consumption and production meter Inverter DC/AC Consumption meter Feed-in electricity meter USA: Net-metering Solar electricity is used for own consumption first, only excess electricity is fed into the grid Germany: Feed-in tariff Solar electricity is exclusively fed into the grid BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 15

16 Development of the German PV market PV Market Data 2007 Newly installed power Total installed power Milestones 1991: First Feed-in Law 2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) 2004: Amendment of EEG MWp MWp No. of newly installed systems No. of total systems installed Turnover Bln /7.25 Bln $ Employees annually installed PV power in MWp total installed PV power in MWp Total installed PV power in MWp BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 16

17 Photovoltaic Market Deployment Strategy Phase 1 until 2020: Build up PV markets and capacities Reduce PV costs => The number of markets where PV is cost competitive is growing steadily => Support instruments are necessary PV competitiveness cost development in different regions and electricity rate development Phase 2 beyond 2020: Fast increase of the use of PV PV to become a crucial pillar of electricity production Source: Schott Solar BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 17

18 How does the German Feed-in Law (EEG) work? Principles Priority connection for all PV systems granted Each solar kwh has to be bought by the utility Fixed feed-in tariff payment over 20 years Reduction of the feed-in tariff each year by 5% for newly installed PV systems FIT and electricity rate in Germany ct/kwh < 30 kwp FIT (-5%/a) electricity rate (+3%/a) Grid parity will be reached in 2018 Data of TWh solar electricity sold for mio 1,176 [mio$ 1,700] (average 53ct per kwh) Share of solar electricity: 0.45% Fossil and nuclear electricity (and other renewables) Utilities grid Consumption of 495 TWh Price private consumer: approx. 20ct per kwh Including 0.24ct for PV consumer Price increase for consumer: 1.2% BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 18

19 Feed-in Tariffs in Germany 2008 for PV systems installed in 2008, guaranteed over 20 years Feed-in tariff per kwh on buildings and noise protection walls < 30 kwp ct $ct kwp ct $ct 64.5 > 100 kwp ct $ct 63.8 Image: Solar-Fabrik Façadeintegrated Open land (groundmounted) additional ct 5 $ct 7.25 ct $ct 51.5 Image: Degussa BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 19

20 Small, Medium and Large Rooftop Installations Image: SMA Image: Wagner & Co Image: Frankensolar Image:Solar-Fabrik BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 20

21 Examples for Ground-Mounted PV systems Image:Phönix Image:Geosol Image:Phönix Image: Geosol Image: Epuronl BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 21

22 German PV Market up to 2008 and Feed-in Tariffs as of annually installed PV power in MWp Degression rate of feed-in tariffs Up to 2008: 5% / 6.5% (roof top/ground) 2009/2010: 8% / 10% (< / >100 kwp) 2011/2012: 9% Below/above corridor: -1%/+1% % %/ 10% % %/ 10% % % 9% % -1% -1% annually installed PV power in MWp upper limit lower limit BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 22

23 Feed-in Tariffs for PV within the German EEG Based on higher degression rates as of 2009, decided on June 6th, 2008 ct per kwh ,8 48,74 40,6 49,21 46,75 46,3 43,99 37,96 35,49 Price of small PV systems < 10 kwp [ /kwp] (without VAT) ,01 39,58 31,94 39,57 35,62 36,01 32,41 32,77 29,49 28,75 26,16 23,81 Grid parity will be reached between 2012 and ,82 26,84 27,14 24,7 24,42 22,22 21,67 19,72 17,95 22,48 20,46 20,22 18,4 16,33 14, facades < 30 kwp > 30 kwp > 100 kwp >1000 kwp Freiflächen electricity price (+3%/a) BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 23

24 Photovoltaic market entrance strategy 1. Create PV demand by: - Granting the right of solar electricity production and grid connection - Making solar electricity production financially attractive 2. Building up: - PV market - PV production - Installation capacities Reduction of costs Less energy imports Creation of jobs 3. PV will become: - Cost-competitive - An important pillar of the sustainable energy system First results More than 15 billion have been invested in PV systems since 2000 More than 3 billion have been invested in manufacturing plants since 2000 Drop in costs for PV systems of approx. 25% from 1999 to 2003 approx. 5% annually since mid 2006 Image: Aleo BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 24

25 Production Follows the Market: PV Producer in Germany Source: Invest in Germany, March 2008 BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 25

26 Production Follows the Market: PV Producer in Germany Source: Invest in Germany, March 2008 BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 26

27 The most important European PV Markets BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 27

28 Support Programs of Important European PV Markets Feed in Tariffs 2007 [ ct/kwh] Subsidy programm Market size 2007 Market size 2008 estimated Germany MWp 1350 MWp Spain MWp 1000 MWp Italy MWp 250 MWp France % tax reduction max 8000/16000 grants in some regions 45 MWp 100 MWp Greece %-60% grants for commercial plants 2 MWp (25% grid connected) 50 MWp BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 28

29 Recent Developments of Important EU PV Markets Policy Germany EEG amendment was finally decided in June 2008 Spain Italy France Greece EU Feed-in law (Royal Decret) expires September 2008, proposed new Royal Decret: feed-in tariffs reduced by 25% to 33 ct/29 ct per kwh, max size per system: 2 MWp, max annual installation: 300 MWp, thereof 200 MWp roof top Market is developing well, will grow fast in 2008, uncertainty about the future support of PV by the new government Focus on building integrated PV in metropol France, discussions about improved conditions for rooftop systems, large ground mounted systems in the overseas Permissions are in preparation, several 100 MWp of PV installations are expected in the coming years Draft of the EU-directive of the European Commission was published on 23 January 2008, target: 20% renewables until 2020, PV: continuation of national support schemes BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 29

30 Take into account: Market and production growth rates will differ and the relation will affect market developments greatly Huge differences of predicted market volumes in 2010 annually installed PV power in MWp Photon Consult: 23 GWp Production = Market EPIA/BSW-Solar: 5-7 GWp Market growth is limited In the coming years the supply of silicon and therefore PV modules will grow faster than the demand. BSW-Solar agrees on the expectation of EPIA of a PV world market between 4.7 and 7 GWp in Photon Consult 2008 Sarasin 2007 LBBW EPIA 2007 max EPIA 2007 min BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 30

31 Conclusions and Outlook Photovoltaics has a great potential but it is necessary to build up market and industry today Expected growth of the German PV market 2008: 20% Driver of the market is the feed-in tariff system (EEG) Due to the amendment of the EEG in June 2008, the degression rates grew from 5%/6.5% to 8%/10% Other European PV markets like Spain and Italy are booming The actual Royal Decret in Spain will expire in September, the next RD will come in November 2008 or later with a cap which will downsize the market Other European markets with feed-in tariffs are promising, but uncertainties about future market developments remain BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 31

32 PV facade with green solar cells, sports stadium Tübingen Thank you very much for your attention! Image: Suntechnics, Sunways BSW-Solar 2008 European PV markets, July 14, 2008, San Francisco 32