Climate Change, Desertification and Water on Cyprus

Transcription

1 Climate Change, Desertification and Water on Cyprus Manfred A. Lange Director, EEWRC The Cyprus Institute Manfred A. Lange 3/23/2010 1

2 Outline The Energy, Environment and Water Research Center of the Cyprus Institute Current Climate and Water Availability on Cyprus The Prospects of Climate Change and its Impacts Regional Climate Modeling Temperature and Precipitation Desertification How to Deal with Increasing Water Scarcity Possible Adaptation Options Co-Generation of Electricity and Water through CSP Conclusions 2

3 The EEWRC of the Cyprus Institute The Energy, Environment and Water Research Center is the first fully operational research center of the Cyprus Institute The EEWRC is charged to become an important research resource for Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) be a gateway between the European Union and the MENA region carry out high-class research on pressing issues related to the energy, environment/climate and water sectors of the region The EEWRC became operational as of September 2007 A major milestone was the inauguration of the Guy Ourisson building by the President of the Republic of Cyprus on December 10, 2007 EEWRC has currently a staff of 33 3

4 Physical Facilities Current status and perspective Facilities at old HTI/ATI campus Phase 1: completed Phase 2: in progress Phase 3: initiated/completed 4

5 Research: Background/Rationale Research agenda is based on a framework of six research areas Each research area comprises a number of specific research topics Not each of the topics is currently/will be addressed 5

6 Cooperation with Partner Institutions Collaboration an essential prerequisite of our work Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT our founding partner) evolving research projects Post-doctoral Fellows and PhD students University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) Cooperation in Climate Change Impact study Water sciences research Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (MPI-Ch), Mainz Research projects in climate and atmospheric sciences Autumn School Cypriot partners Geological Survey Meteorological Services Air Quality Department of the Ministry of Labor Agricultural Research Institute CNE Technologies Numerous partners in the Eastern Mediterranean 6

7 Current Conditions: Introduction Cyprus climate: Mediterranean, semi-arid climate with hot dry summers: May to September somewhat rainy, changeable winters from November to March mean annual precipitation of 460mm with considerable inter-annual variations climatological values of precipitation have been falling over last ~60 years European water stress champion 7

8 Current Conditions: Climate Current and past temperatures and precipitation 1,6 o C 1,7 o C Mean annual temperatures for Cyprus and Nicosia and mean annual precipitation for the 20 th century ; redrawn after: Meteorological Service, Cyprus -170 mm 8

9 Source: Hadjinicolaou, pers. comm. Current Conditions: Water Precipitation has always been low in the Eastern Mediterranean 0 to ~800 mm/a 9 9

10 Current Conditions: Water In the 1970 and 1980s, Cyprus built a large number of dams to reduce loss of surface water to the sea Water stored in dams has recently dramatically fallen This year: significant relief due to copious precipitation Water Storage in Dams: Storage: 178 M m 3 on Construction of dams on Cyprus; Source: Water Development Department, 2007 Source: Water Development Department,

11 Current Conditions: Water Variability of annual precipitation varying surface water reservoirs (Source: Charis Omorphos, Water Development Department, 2009) 1 11

12 Current Conditions: Water Water Consumers Agriculture dominates demand/use of water Demand far exceeds supply of water Source: Iacovides and Glekas, 2001 Source: Water Development Department,

13 Current Conditions: Water Domestic Water Supply Source: Water Development Department,

14 Current Conditions: Water Three desalination plants provide m 3 per day; plans for additional plants implemented 40,3 Mm 3 /a ~ 25% of total demand 13,3 M/a 12,7 M/a 10,0 M/a 36,0 M/a 14

15 Current Conditions: Water Seawater Desalination Three desalination plants provide m 3 per day; plans for additional plants implemented Water produced > twice the price of reservoir water 40,3 Mm 3 /a ~ 25% of total demand 13,3 M/a 12,7 M/a 10,0 M/a 36,0 M/a

16 Climate Change: Introduction Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Forth Assessment Report (2007) o C

17 Climate Modeling Information on future climate development numerical models as most reliable tool Global Climate Models (GCMs) have continuously been improved Advantages: self-consistent, closed representation of global climate system large body of experience many groups worldwide Disadvantages: computationally challenging less satisfactory representation of smaller scale (regional) properties and processes Insufficient spatial resolution of climate processes 1 17

18 Source: IPCC, 2007 Climate Change: Introduction Anticipated change in precipitation regime: reason for concern We need to better understand and quantify changes in the precipitation regime and their impacts 18

19 Source: Hadjinicolaou, pers. comm. Regional Climate Modeling Spatial representation Regional Climate Models (RCMs) GCM land-sea mask RCM model grid 19

20 Source: Hadjinicolaou, pers. comm. Regional Climate Modeling Characteristics of Regional Climate Models: Better representation of regional to sub-regional properties and processes Improved possibilities to address region-specific issues/questions Computationally (usually) less demanding than GCMs Rely on boundary conditions at the edges of the model domain Usually provided through GCM output Inherit all uncertainties of GCMs as well as those of the underlying emission scenarios GCM RCM 20

21 Regional Climate Modeling We have been using the PRECIS model (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies; spatial coverage: gridded 25 x 25 km temporal frequency (separate files averaged over): decadal, yearly, seasonal, monthly, daily ~ 150 variables decadal, yearly, seasonal, monthly Developed at the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office; can be easily applied to any area of the globe to generate detailed climate change projections Application of PRECIS based on the UK Met Office HadCM3Q0 GCM Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere model Based on SRES A1B emissions scenario (medium) 21

22 Regional Climate Modeling Mean summer (JJA) maximum temperatures T max : ~1 to 3 o C T max : ~2 to 5 o C T max : ~3 to 8 o C

23 Regional Climate Modeling Winter precipitation (DJF) P: ~-50 to +50% Mean annual precipitation P: ~-60 to +50% P: ~-80 to +60%

24 Regional Climate Modeling Mean summer (JJA) maximum temperatures (rel. to ) T max : ~0,8 to 1,1 o C T max : ~1 to 3,8 o C

25 Regional Climate Modeling Winter precipitation (DJF) (rel. to ) P: ~-5 to -15% P: ~-20 to -40%

26 Regional Climate Change: Impacts Both current conditions and future projection of climate conditions on Cyprus suggest significant impacts, including: Increases in summer temperature Enhanced evaporation Increasing water (and energy) demands (cooling, enhanced irrigation needs) Amplification of water scarcity Intensified desertification Desertification as defined in the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification is the land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry subhumid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities, that is, encompassing both biophysical and social factors (UNCCD, 1992) These impacts call for adaptation strategies to be implemented in order to minimize adverse impacts 26

27 Regional Climate Change: Impacts These changes in climate will cause distinct impacts e.g.: increased desertification Presently, large areas of Cyprus are already at critical conditions Present geographical distribution of the Environmentally Sensitive Areas to Desertification on Cyprus; source: I.A.CO Ltd.,

28 Regional Climate Change: Impacts Assuming changes in climate (16% reduction in precipitation; average temperature increase by 1.3 o C), desertification will be significantly enhanced Future geographical distribution of the Environmentally Sensitive Areas to Desertification on Cyprus under climate change; source: I.A.CO Ltd., 2007 Fragile 29.5% Critical 70.4% 28

29 Adaptation Strategies: Water Scarcity Adaptation Options/Strategies include (but are not limited to): Planning for extremes (droughts), such as safeguarding domestic water supply through increased desalination Planning for extremes (floods): modeling and mapping flood extends and hazards Artificial recharge of groundwater resources by reservoirs and check dams Recharge of groundwater in severely depleted aquifers by tertiary-treated sewage water Integrated modeling, management and cost recovery of groundwater use, under Water Framework Directive Improving rainfall-runoff management and use in urban areas, such as water harvesting for landscaping and groundwater recharge Improved leakage detection in urban water distribution systems Flood-induced road destruction in Badia, Syria; source: Bruggeman 29

30 Adaptation Strategies: Water Scarcity Adaptation Options/Strategies include (but are not limited to): Drought tolerant crops and natural vegetation, such as olives, barley, and Atriplex shrubs Supplemental irrigation of rain-fed winter crops instead of full irrigation of summer crops Irrigation of selected crops with treated sewage water Rainwater harvesting Reforestation of marginal, abandoned agricultural lands Analysis of environmental flow requirements and options Policies to reduce water demand, such as subsidies and extension support for modern irrigation systems Drought-tolerant olive tree, Idalion, Cyprus; source: Bruggeman Rainwater harvesting, Ierapetra, Crete; source: Lange 30

31 Adaptation Strategies: Water Scarcity Drawbacks of Seawater Desalination Relatively energy-intensive Mean consumption: 4.52kWh/m 3 of desalinated water 40,3 Mm 3 /a 4 % of total electricity generated on Cyprus Contributes to CO 2 emissions, which are beyond EU targets Remedies Switch from oil- to natural-gas fired power plants Import of water by ship In 2008: 8 Mm 3 shipped from Greece; cost 42 M ( 5/m 3 ) Use of renewable energy sources Solar energy seems most effective Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) holds significant promise kwh/m 2 31

32 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Solar-thermal energy generation Four basic technologies Parabolic trough and Fresnel currently most common for medium-size applications Solar tower: large-scale application The four basic CSP techniques and principal functions of parabolic trough and Fresnel; Source: DLR 32

33 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) CSP Plants represent proven technology Due to heat storage 24h/7 d operation possible Modest land requirement: 25 km 2 to satisfy all Cypriot electricity needs CSP Plant, Kramer Junction,, CA, USA Schematic representation and flow diagram of a Typical CSP power plant (Source: F. Morse, pers. comm.) CSP Plant, Kramer Junction,, CA, USA 33

34 Adaptation Strategies: Water Scarcity Co-Generation of Electricity &Water through CSP: how? Replace Cooling System by MED Multi-Effect Desalination 34

35 Conclusions Cyprus is governed by Mediterranean climate which is characterized by increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation Water scarcity: a prevailing problem Future climate of Cyprus will be characterized by very warm and dry summers and milder winters There will be an enhanced scarcity in available water and an increasing trend towards desertification of the island Addressing water scarcity requires changed agricultural practices and innovative technologies for seawater desalination 35

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