Employing the String of Pearls Integrated Assessment Model:

Transcription

1 Employing the String of Pearls Integrated Assessment Model: A Carbon Sequestration Systems Analysis Tool Peter H. Kobos, Leonard A. Malczynski, David J. Borns Sandia National Laboratories The 26th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Ann Arbor, MI September 24 27, Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL

2 The Integrated Assessment Model: CO 2 Capture, Transportation and Storage 1. Characterize the physical, economic and policy requirements for a carbon sequestration project 2. Develop a high-level methodological framework for analysis 3. Build an Integrated Assessment model (dynamic simulation computer model) to help interested parties understand the potential screening criteria necessary to develop such a project 4. Apply the model to the Southwestern United States, and beyond 2

3 The Integrated Assessment Model: Attributes and Screening Criteria Model characterizes the screening criteria: underground geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Region the relative size of the CO 2 flow from the source to the sink economics associated with this system 3

4 The Integrated Assessment Model: The SW Partnership Framework Data-Sharing States WGA and Other Critical Partners Information, GIS / Database CO 2 Sinks & Distributed Sources Public Education & Involvement Infrastructure, Separation, Capture & Point Sources Regulatory Compliance Integrated Assessment Industry Advisory Panel McPherson,

5 Schematic of the Integrated Assessment Model Source Capture Transportation Storage Metering Power Plants Capture Cost Modeling Pipelines Ongoing Natural Gas, Oil Formations 5

6 Timeline Progress of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Efforts Completed: Collected, analyzed and consolidated CO 2 sources, sinks, and related economic information Developed a Test Case systems view in the SW Regional Partnership Where we are: Employing the String-of-Pearls methodology to develop a CO 2 sequestration network in the full SW Region» (CO 2 sources, pipelines, sinks) Including Pilot Projects in UT, NM and TX Addressing MMV and Risk in the systems view 6

7 Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Power Plants in 2000 Million metric tonnes of CO2 / year 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,611 NM SRP US The Southwest Regional Partnership (SRP) is the sum of the emissions from Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Utah, (EPA, 2005). 7

8 Transportation & Storage: Infrastructure in the Southwestern US CO 2 pipelines from CO to TX Enhanced Oil Recovery (e.g., West Texas) Potential Sequestration Opportunities in Oil Fields, Natural Gas Fields, and possibly Saline Formations Working Totals for the Model (not all SW States as of July 2006, ongoing data collection) Oil & Gas 17,000 mmt CO 2 Saline Formations 2,000,000 mmt CO 2 (Biediger, 2006) 8

9 The Integrated Assessment Model and The String of Pearls 9

10 CO 2 Source to Geological Sinks: The String of Pearls Pipeline Algorithm Select the Specific Power Plant in the SW U.S. Years of Useful Sink Fill Time Stacked systems costs Users can Adjust the: % of CO 2 captured costs to capture CO 2 pipeline cost Well costs Baseline MMV cost. All of the SRP sinks, but no pipelines, are included in this particular scenario run of the model. 10

11 Model Results: Selecting only Oil and Gas formations & those 500 million metric tonnes Results for the San Juan Power Plant (1779 MW) Select only Oil & Gas Sinks 500 mmt Only 6 sinks are 500 mmt in the SW Partnership s Oil & Gas database 500 mmt = ~ 60 years of fill capacity per sink for the San Juan Plant 11

12 The Model s Specific Sinks Selection Page for New Mexico Can Select Specific Sinks by State Formations with a check mark next to them are included in the String of Pearls algorithm 12

13 Phase II Demonstration Options: Geological Sequestration Paradox Basin, Utah: combined EOR and deep saline aquifer sequestration pilot test (Jim Rutledge) San Juan Basin, NM: combined ECBM and terrestrial sequestration pilot test (Scott Reeves, Joel Brown) Permian Basin, TX: combined EOR and sequestration pilot test at SACROC & Claytonville (Mark Holz) McPherson,

14 Concluding Remarks and Issues to Address in the Assessment Carbon Model Issues Findings: majority of the total cost (~90%) is with capturing the CO 2 Ongoing: development for time scale, projections, costs, granularity issues Regional Allocation Lessons: Source sink combinations coordinated across states and basins Barriers: Economic and Regulatory issues by political boundary, Sources and Sinks are geographic and across states Sources of Carbon Currently: The model includes power plants Ongoing: Utility vs. Non-Utility, Potentially Locate New Plants Future Modeling Efforts Focus on demonstration test cases Address Time and additional characteristics of the system 14

15 Employing the String of Pearls Integrated Assessment Model: A Carbon Sequestration Systems Analysis Tool Thank You Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL