CHAPTER 4 Water Demand

Transcription

1 CHAPTER OVERVIEW OF WATER USE As described in Chapter 2, the City s water service area consists of one large contiguous service area and several outlying non-contiguous service areas. The City is currently in the process of converting all residential unmetered accounts to metered usage. The metering program is anticipated to be completed by Since 1991, water meters have been installed for most new residential development, but have not been necessarily billed at a metered rate. As of, approximately 57 percent of the City s single family residential accounts are billed based on metered usage 1. As of 2008, all commercial, industrial, institutional and landscape water use is billed based on metered water usage. Past water use, based on water production records, in the City s water service area is summarized in Table 4-1. Table 4-1. City of Modesto Water Use by Service Area Actual (2005 and ) (c) Service Area 2005 Water Use, Water Use, Modesto (includes Surface Water purchased from MID) 72,612 59,991 Salida 2,711 1,730 Del Rio Grayson Hickman Waterford 2,015 1,437 Turlock Ceres (Walnut Manor) Totals (c) 79,092 64,464 Source: City of Modesto spreadsheet Monthly system flow totals 2000 to present.xls Includes water use in Empire, North Ceres, Bret Harte, Shackelford and West Modesto service areas Includes unaccounted for water. As shown in Table 4-1, water use in the City s water service area dropped significantly from 2005 to. There are two primary reasons for this drop in water use: drought conditions and economic conditions. From 2008 to, California experienced drought conditions which resulted in increased water conservation and water use awareness resulting in reduced water use by customers. Secondly, in that same period, California experienced an economic downtown which resulted in numerous housing foreclosures, unsold existing homes and business closures; the City s service area was particularly impacted by this downturn. This, in turn, resulted in reduced water use as a result of numerous unoccupied homes and closed businesses within the 1 Based on residential metered and unmetered accounts for as compiled in Active Water Accounts by Year by Shibumi Consulting Services, LLC, January 18, City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

2 City s service area. This reduction in water use in the last few years has been experienced in many communities in California. Future water use in the City s water service areas has been projected based on the projected service area populations in each portion of the service area (see Table 2-3) and the City s per capita water use targets, as established in accordance with SBx7-7 (described later in this chapter). These projected future water uses are summarized in Table 4-2. Table 4-2. City of Modesto Water Use by Service Area Projected (2015 to 2035) Service Area Water Use, Water Use, Water Use, Water Use, Water Use, City of Modesto 66,691 65,299 71,787 78,920 86,761 Salida 4,459 4,366 4,800 5,277 5,801 Empire 1,386 1,357 1,492 1,640 1,804 Del Rio Grayson Hickman Waterford 2,823 2, ,514 2,514 Turlock North Ceres (Bystrom) 1,296 1,154 1,154 1,154 1,154 Ceres (Walnut Manor) Bret Harte 1,527 1,402 1,445 1,487 1,528 Shackelford 1,483 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320 West Modesto 1,910 1,870 2,056 2,260 2,485 Totals 82,900 80,500 87,900 96, ,800 Based on projected population in each part of the City s service area (from Table 2-3) multiplied by the SBx7-7 per capita water use targets. Includes unaccounted for water. Totals rounded to nearest PAST AND CURRENT WATER USE BY WATER USE SECTOR Water Code (e)(1)(2) (e) (1) Quantify, to the extent records are available, past and current water use, over the same five-year increments described in subdivision, and projected water use, identifying the uses among water use sectors including, but not necessarily limited to, all of the following uses: (A) Single-family residential. (B) Multifamily. (C) Commercial. (D) Industrial. (E) Institutional and governmental. 4-2 City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

3 (F) Landscape. (G) Sales to other agencies. (H) Saline water intrusion barriers, groundwater recharge, or conjunctive use, or any combination thereof. (I) Agricultural. (2) The water use projections shall be in the same five-year increments described in subdivision Past and Current Water Use: City of Modesto Actual water use by the City s customers, by water use sector, in 2005 is summarized in Table 4-3. Table 4-3. City of Modesto Water Deliveries Actual (2005) (DWR Table 3) Water Use Sectors Accounts Metered 2005 Accounts Non Metered (c) Total Single Family 12,326 (d) 1,830 49,303 (d) 42,455 44,285 Multi-Family 4,499 5,971 No data available (e) No data 5,971 available (f) Commercial 3,659 8, ,558 Industrial 69 3, ,658 Institutional/Governmental 366 2, ,507 Landscape 548 2, ,222 Agriculture Other (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) Total (g) 21,662 24,768 49,303 42,455 67,223 Number of 2005 accounts based on 2005 Billing Accounts as compiled by Shibumi Consulting Services, LCC dated November 10, metered deliveries based on 2005 Billed Consumption Metered as compiled by Shibumi Consulting Services, LCC dated November 10, non-metered deliveries value shown for single family includes non-metered deliveries for single family and multi-family residential and is estimated based on total production minus estimated unaccounted for water minus metered deliveries. Actual number of metered vs. non-metered single family residential accounts is not available for 2005; 20 percent of total single family residential accounts for 2005 assumed to be metered. Actual number of metered vs. non-metered multi-family residential accounts is unknown. Actual non-metered deliveries for single-family and multi-family water use is not available; value shown for non-metered singlefamily deliveries represents total non-metered deliveries for single family and multi-family residential. Does not include unaccounted for water. 4-3 City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

4 Actual water use by the City s customers, by water use sector, in is summarized in Table 4-4. Table 4-4. City of Modesto Water Deliveries Actual () (DWR Table 4) Water Use Sectors Accounts Metered Accounts Non Metered Total Single Family 36,651 (c) 11,519 27,531 (c) 27,813 39,332 Multi-Family 4,544 5, ,614 Commercial 3,790 7, ,751 Industrial 67 3, ,308 Institutional/Governmental 372 2, ,196 Landscape 865 2, ,626 Agriculture Other (c) (d) Total (d) 46,380 32,964 27,728 28,009 60,973 Number of metered and non-metered accounts based on Active Water Accounts By Year as compiled by Shibumi Consulting Services, LCC dated January 18, deliveries based on Billed Consumption as compiled by Shibumi Consulting Services, LCC dated March 14, Approximately 57 percent of single family residential connections are metered as of based on Active Water Accounts By Year as compiled by Shibumi Consulting Services, LCC dated January 18, It is believed that the number of metered single family accounts may include accounts for which meters have been installed, but for which billing is still conducted on a flat rate basis. As the City progresses with its Residential Metering Program, the City will convert these flat rate customers to a metered rate. Does not include unaccounted for water Past and Current Water Use: Modesto Irrigation District MID does not deliver water directly to urban customers, as shown in Table 4-5. Table 4-5. MID Water Deliveries Actual (2005 and ) (DWR Tables 3 and 4) Water Use Sectors 2005 Single Family 0 0 Multi-Family 0 0 Commercial 0 0 Industrial 0 0 Institutional/Governmental 0 0 Landscape 0 0 Agriculture 0 0 Other 0 0 Total City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

5 4.3 PROJECTED WATER USE BY WATER USE SECTOR Projected Water Use: City of Modesto Projected water use by the City s customers, by water use sector, in 2015 is summarized in Table 4-6. Table 4-6. City of Modesto Water Deliveries Projected (2015) (DWR Table 5) Water Use Sectors Accounts Metered 2015 Accounts Non Metered (c) Total Single Family 56,137 (d) 36,512 14,034 (d) 9,128 45,640 Multi-Family 5,021 6, ,387 Commercial 4,144 9, ,169 Industrial 73 3, ,748 Institutional/Governmental 407 2, ,406 Landscape 947 2, ,981 Agriculture Other (c) (d) (e) Total (e) 66,940 61,308 14,084 9,192 70,500 Number of accounts projected based on 1.8 percent annual increase in the number of connections (based on annual increase in number of total connections from 2000 to 2005, prior to the economic downturn) Deliveries by water use sector based on ratios of water use by water use sector (as compiled by Shibumi Consulting Services, LLC dated January 18, 2011). Non-metered deliveries estimated based on total production minus estimated unaccounted for water minus metered deliveries. 80 percent of total single family residential accounts for 2015 assumed to be metered. Does not include unaccounted for water. Total deliveries rounded to nearest City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

6 Projected water use by the City s customers, by water use sector, in 2020 is summarized in Table 4-7. Table 4-7. City of Modesto Water Deliveries Projected (2020) (DWR Table 6) Water Use Sectors Accounts Metered 2020 Accounts Non Metered Total Single Family 76,719 (c) 44, ,280 Multi-Family 5,544 6, ,197 Commercial 4,530 8, ,895 Industrial 80 3, ,636 Institutional/Governmental 445 2, ,334 Landscape 1,035 2, ,893 Agriculture Other (c) (d) Total (d) 88,584 68, ,400 Number of accounts projected based on 1.8 percent annual increase in the number of connections (based on annual increase in number of total connections from 2000 to 2005, prior to the economic downturn) Deliveries by water use sector based on ratios of water use by water use sector (as compiled by Shibumi Consulting Services, LLC dated January 18, 2011). 100 percent of single family residential accounts for 2020 assumed to be metered. Does not include unaccounted for water. Total deliveries rounded to nearest City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

7 Projected water use by the City s customers, by water use sector, in 2025, 2030 and 2035 is summarized in Table 4-8. Table 4-8. City of Modesto Water Deliveries Projected (2025, 2030 and 2035) (DWR Table 7) Metered Water Use Sectors Accounts Accounts Accounts Single Family 83,879 48,358 91,706 52, ,264 57,681 Multi-Family 6,061 6,767 6,627 7,392 7,245 8,072 Commercial 4,953 9,715 5,415 10,612 5,921 11,587 Industrial 88 3, , ,736 Institutional/Governmental 486 2, , ,040 Landscape 1,132 3,159 1,237 3,451 1,353 3,768 Agriculture Other (c) Total (c) 96,851 74, ,889 81, ,770 89,100 Number of accounts projected based on 1.8 percent annual increase in the number of connections (based on annual increase in number of total connections from 2000 to 2005, prior to the economic downturn) Deliveries by water use sector based on ratios of water use by water use sector (as compiled by Shibumi Consulting Services, LLC dated January 18, 2011). Does not include unaccounted for water. Total deliveries rounded to nearest 100. On October 7, 2005, SB 1087 was signed into law, requiring public agencies and private entities providing water or sewer services to grant priority for those services to proposed developments that include housing units for lower income households (Government Code Section ). The City passed Resolution on August 8, 2006, adopting written procedures to uphold this legislation. This resolution is provided in Appendix L. Based on the City s Draft Housing Element ( ) dated October, the City has 1,157 existing units of affordable multi-family housing (which was either City-supported or Federallyassisted). This equates to approximately 5 percent of the City s existing multi-family residential accounts 2. The City s Draft Housing Element does not provide projections for affordable housing beyond 2014; therefore, for purposes of this UWMP, it has been assumed that the existing percentage of affordable housing will be maintained in the future through ,157 units of multi-family residential housing is estimated to equal 231 multi-family accounts (assuming an average of 5 multi-family dwelling units per multi-family account). In, the City had 4,638 multi-family accounts; therefore, 231 affordable multi-family accounts equals about 5 percent of the total multi-family accounts. 4-7 City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

8 Projected water use by the City s low income customers is summarized in Table 4-9. Table 4-9. City of Modesto Low Income Projected s (DWR Table 8) Low Income s Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Total Based on 5 percent of the projected future multi-family residential water demand Projected Water Use: Modesto Irrigation District MID does not deliver water directly to urban customers, as shown in Table Table MID Water Deliveries Projected (2015 to 2035) (DWR Table 5, 6 and 7) Low Income s Single Family Multi-Family Commercial Industrial Institutional/Governmental Landscape Agriculture Other Total As MID does not deliver water directly to urban customers, MID has no low income water demands as summarized in Table Table MID Low Income Projected s (DWR Table 8) Low Income s Single Family Residential Multi-Family Residential Total City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

9 4.4 SALES TO OTHER AGENCIES City of Modesto Sales to Other Agencies The City of Modesto does not currently sell water to other agencies, as shown in Table Table City of Modesto Sales to Other Agencies, (DWR Table 9) Water Distributed (actual) None Total Modesto Irrigation District Sales to Other Agencies Although MID is primarily an agricultural supplier, MID currently sells water for urban uses exclusively to the City of Modesto, as shown in Table Table MID Sales to Other Agencies, (DWR Table 9) Water Distributed (actual) City of Modesto 30,647 67,200 67,200 67,200 67,200 67,200 Total 30,647 67,200 67,200 67,200 67,200 67,200 data reflects actual MID deliveries (sales) to the City of Modesto. 4.5 ADDITIONAL WATER USES AND LOSSES City of Modesto Additional Water Uses and Losses Additional water uses include such uses as saline barriers and groundwater recharge. The City does not use water for such uses. Water losses occur due to distribution system leaks and other unmetered water uses (such as firefighting, main flushing, etc.). Actual water losses within the City s water system cannot be confirmed until the City has completed its current efforts to implement metering City-wide. Therefore, unaccounted for water and system losses are assumed to comprise approximately 15 percent of total production. This assumption is intended to provide a conservative estimate of water losses throughout the City s distribution system. Once the City completes its on-going water metering program (anticipated by 2020), actual water losses can be determined. Estimates of unaccounted-for system losses are documented in Table City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

10 Water Use Table City of Modesto Additional Water Uses and Losses, (DWR Table 10) (actual) Saline Barriers Groundwater Recharge Conjunctive Use Raw Water Recycled Water System losses (a,b,c) 9,670 12,400 12,100 13,200 14,400 15,700 Other Total 9,670 12,400 12,100 13,200 14,400 15,700 Unaccounted for system losses are estimated to be 15 percent of total production. System losses may include leaks, flushing, fires, flow testing, backflushing, etc. (c) Projected system losses rounded to nearest 100. Table 4-15 summarizes the current and projected total water demands for the City s service area through the year As described above, these future total water demands are consistent with the City s per capita water use targets for 2015 (interim target of 256 gallons per capita per day (gpcd)) and for 2020 and beyond (final target of 228 gpcd). Table City of Modesto Total Water Use, (DWR Table 11) Water Use (actual) Total Water Deliveries 60,369 70,500 68,400 74,700 81,600 89,100 Sales to Other Water Agencies Additional Water Uses and Losses 4,095(c) 12,400 12,100 13,200 14,400 15,700 Total 64,464 82,900 (d) 80,500 (e) 87,900 (f) 96,000 (f) 104,800 (f As estimated by Shibumi Consulting Services, LLC dated January 18, Future unaccounted for water is estimated to be 15 percent of total production. (c) Total production minus estimated total water deliveries. (d) Consistent with City s interim gpcd target of 256 gpcd per SBx7-7 (256 gpcd x 289,076 service area population = 82,900 ). Rounded to nearest 100. (e) Consistent with City s final gpcd target of 228 gpcd per SBx7-7 (228 gpcd x 315,324 service area population = 80,500 ). Rounded to nearest 100. (f) Consistent with City s 2020 gpcd target and projected populations for 2025, 2030 and 2035 (see Table 2-3). Rounded to nearest 100. ) 4-10 City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

11 4.5.2 Modesto Irrigation District Additional Water Uses and Losses As shown in Table 4-16, MID is primarily an agricultural water supplier, and currently has no other urban water uses beyond wholesale delivery to the City of Modesto. Table MID Additional Water Uses and Losses, (DWR Table 10) Water Use (actual) Saline Barriers Groundwater Recharge Conjunctive Use Raw Water Recycled Water System losses Other Total Table 4-17 summarizes MID s current and projected domestic water demand through the year Table MID Domestic Total Water Use, (DWR Table 11) Water Use (actual) Total Water Deliveries Sales to Other Water Agencies 30,647 67,200 67,200 67,200 67,200 67,200 Additional Water Uses and Losses Total 30,647 67,200 67,200 67,200 67,200 67, City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

12 4.6 RETAIL AGENCY DEMAND PROJECTIONS PROVIDED TO WHOLESALE SUPPLIERS As described above, MID provides urban water supplies to the City on a wholesale basis. Table 4-18 summarizes the City s demand projections provided to MID through Table Retail Agency Demand Projections Provided to Wholesale Suppliers, (DWR Table 12) Wholesaler Modesto Irrigation District Contracted Volume ,204 33,600 67,200 67,200 67,200 67,200 67,200 The current contracted volume is 33,602. The contracted volume will increase to 67,204 upon completion of MRWTP Phase Two (anticipated in late 2012). 4.7 COMPLIANCE WITH SBX Overview SBx7-7 was one of the four policy bills enacted as part of the November 2009 Comprehensive Water Package. The Water Conservation Act of 2009 provides the regulatory framework to support the statewide reduction in urban per capita water use described in the 20x2020 Water Conservation Plan (DWR and others ). It also addresses agricultural water and commercial, industrial, and institutional (CII) water use. Per SBx7-7, each urban retail water supplier must determine and report its existing baseline water consumption and establish either its own or cooperative targets. This reporting is to begin with the UWMP, which is required by the Water Conservation Act of The City s compliance with SBx7-7 is described in detail in the January 2011 technical memorandum included in Appendix I of this UWMP. The City developed its baseline and target per capita water uses on an individual basis, and did not participate in any regional alliance. As described in the technical memorandum and summarized below, the City utilized Target Method 1 to establish an Interim (2015) Per Capita Water Use Target of 256 gpcd, and a Final (2020) Per Capita Water Use Target of 228 gpcd. The City held a public hearing on February 22, 2011 to discuss and adopt the Target Method and resulting interim and final targets. The following issues were discussed during the public hearing: Allow community input regarding the urban retail water supplier s implementation plan for complying with SBx7-7; Consider the economic impacts of the urban retail water supplier s implementation plan for complying with SBx7-7; and 4-12 City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

13 Adopt a method, pursuant to subdivision of Section , for determining its urban water use target. As an urban wholesale water supplier, MID is not required to comply with the urban retail water supplier requirements included in SBx7-7. However, as described below, MID supports the City in its implementation of water conservation programs to help achieve the City s per capita water use targets Determination of Baseline and Target Per Capita Water Use As described in Appendix I, the City s baseline per capita water uses were determined based on the methodologies described in DWR s October 1, Methodologies for Calculating Baseline and Compliance Urban Per Capita Water Use (DWR Methodologies). Consistent with DWR Methodology 1 (Gross Water Use), the City s gross water use is based on the metered quantity of water purchased by the City from the MID and metered quantity of groundwater pumped by the City from its municipal production wells for municipal use and the City s service area population. Consistent with DWR Methodology 2 (Service Area Population), the City s service area population has been estimated using DOF and the United States Census Bureau to the extent that it is available. As described in Chapter 2, the City serves a number of areas located outside City limits which are County areas or areas previously served by the Del Este Water Company 3. Where DOF or Census data were not available for a specific part of the City s service area, population estimates were based on the number of connections served by the City and the estimated number of people per household. The City s baseline per capita water use was based on the parameters shown in Table The City of Modesto acquired the Del Este Water Company in City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

14 Table Base Period Ranges (DWR Table 13) Base Parameter Value Units 10- to 15-year base period 5-year base period 2008 total water deliveries 77, total volume of delivered recycled water 2008 recycled water as a percent of total deliveries 0 0 Percent Number of years in base period 10 Years Year beginning base period range 1999 Year ending base period range 2008 Number of years in base period 5 Years Year beginning base period range 2003 Year ending base period range (c) 2007 Units = If the 2008 recycled water percent is less than 10 percent, then the first base period is a continuous 10-year period. If the amount of recycled water delivered in 2008 is 10 percent or greater; the first base period is a continuous 10- to 15-year period. The ending year must be between December 31, 2004 and December 31,. (c) The ending year must be between December 31, 2007 and December 31,. Since the City had no recycled water deliveries in 2008, a 10-year base period was used to calculate the City s baseline per capita water use (for purposes of Water Code Section ). The calculation of this 10-year baseline per capita water use is summarized in Table Table Base Daily Per Capita Water Use: 10- to 15-Year Range (DWR Table 14) Base Period Year Distribution System Population Daily System Gross Water Use, MGD Annual Daily Per Capita Water Use, gpcd Sequence Year Calendar Year Year , Year , Year , Year , Year , Year , Year , Year , Year , Year , Average of annual daily per capita water use for the 10-year period from 1999 to Base Daily Per Capita Water Use City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

15 The calculation of the City s 5-year baseline per capita water use (for purposes of Water Code Section ) is shown in Table Table Base Daily Per Capita Water Use: 5-Year Range (DWR Table 15) Sequence Year Base Period Year Calendar Year Distribution System Population Daily System Gross Water Use, MGD Annual Daily Per Capita Water Use, gpcd Year , Year , Year , Year , Year , Average of annual daily per capita water use for the 5-year period from 2003 to Base Daily Per Capita Water Use 278 Using Target Method 1, the City s interim (2015) per capita water use target is 256 gpcd (90 percent of the 10-year baseline per capita water use of 285 gpcd). The City s final (2020) per capita water use target is 228 gpcd (80 percent of the 10-year baseline per capita water use of 285 gpcd). These interim and final targets comply with the minimum water use reduction requirement of 265 gpcd (based on 95 percent of the 5-year baseline per capita water use of 278 gpcd). These interim and final targets have been used to project the City s future water demands (described above) using the City s projected future service area population (see Table 2-3) City Programs to Achieve Reduction Goals As the City manages its water service area, it recognizes that water is a regional resource as well as a local one. Therefore, regional partnerships, in addition to local projects and conservation measures, play a large role in maximizing resources. The City is currently participating in the preparation of an Integrated Regional Water Management Plan (IRWMP) with other local entities. Participation in the IRWMP planning process allows the City and its partners to develop a regional plan to identify resources and develop projects to provide sustainable water resources to meet regional water needs. As described in Chapter 5, the City has implemented, or is in the process of implementing, the foundational and programmatic Best Management Practices (BMPs) included in the California Urban Water Conservation Council (CUWCC) Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Implementation of these water conservation programs will allow the City to achieve the water reduction goals required by SBx7-7. In particular, the City s implementation of the residential metering program and billing based on metered usage, anticipated to be completed by 2020, will help the City to monitor and track actual water use and reduce per capita water use through the City s water service area. The completion of the metering program will also allow the City to 4-15 City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan

16 perform system water audits and assist the City in identifying and reducing system losses due to pipeline leaks. Other key programs will be those that target the reduction of outdoor water uses, including residential landscape water surveys (BMP 3.2) and large landscape conservation programs and incentive programs (BMP 5). The City has yet to approve the funding required to fully implement the proposed water conservation measures described in Chapter 5. However, the City does anticipate providing at least some funding to all of the proposed programs initially and then adding future funding to those programs which are the most successful in reducing water use. Because the funding has not yet been approved, and the success of the proposed programs has not yet been determined, the potential economic impacts of the City s compliance with SBx7-7 cannot be quantified at this time MID Programs to Support Reduction Goals Water Code Urban wholesale water suppliers shall include in the urban water management plans an assessment of their present and proposed future measures, programs and policies to help achieve the water use reduction required by this part Although MID is not directly involved with demand reduction, MID strongly supports the City s efforts through on-going and continuous operational coordination between MID and the City, support of water conservation and public outreach activities through MID s website and water use provisions contained in the Amended and Restated Treatment and Delivery Agreement Progress Toward Meeting the Urban Water Use Targets Water Code Urban water retail suppliers shall report to the department on their progress in meeting their urban water use targets as part of their urban water management plans submitted pursuant to Section The City will report its progress in meeting the established 2015 and 2020 per capita water use targets in the 2015 and 2020 UWMP City of Modesto/MID Urban Water Management Plan